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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Will

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3. Do what their source material does, letting their arms get damaged and thusly losing their effectiveness, making it easy to punish players who try to abuse their long range.
so like do they have short-ranged stuff and we just abuse that instead
 

Dinoman96

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I think 2B would be cool, but honestly I'm not entirely sure why Nintendo would be interested in including an IP that hasn't and most likely will never appear on their hardware. That remaster of the first Nier coming out could easily come to Switch but it just...isn't.

Even Persona has a few spinoffs on Nintendo.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Despite what a lot of people would say, choosing Spring Man isn't misleading. The way they presented it may have gotten our hopes up for someone else, but Spring Man still fulfills everything they promised us and fits with the images shown in the Direct.

Choosing an ARMS 2 rep though? That's misleading. No footage of this alleged ARMS 2 game was shown during the announcement, and every character that we saw was from the orginal. To say, "Surprise!! It's none of these characters!!" is very dishonest. That kind of trolling would make bizarre fan theories more prevalent than they are right now.

To sum it up nice and sweet, no, we're probably not getting an ARMS 2 character. Take what they said at face value.
They could pick Ribbon Girl too, or Ninjara, Min Min, Twintelle, or even someone who isn’t a Spirit like Max Brass, Dr. Coyle or (lmao) Kid Cobra

tl;dr- nobody who hasn’t already been introduced
 

CaptainAmerica

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...wait, there actually is a theory about an ARMS 2 character? I was joking about that...

If that happened, I'd be pissed. People are annoyed enough about certain characters acting as shills, we don't need one that blatantly is one. What's next, new Fire Emblem game announced at E3 2021, with its protagonist rounding off Smash season 2?

I'm leaning towards ARMS mashup, and I'd really like to see Springo/Ribbons/Ninjara/Min as the set. But srsly I need to get back into Smash. Still haven't bought any of the DLC, but I know I'm getting Banjo...and if Springo's part of the character, that's also gonna be a must. I'll see about the others, or wait for a sale. Still, my Switch is in quarantine at my parents' house, so I haven't been able to play in ages.
 

TheShiningAbsol

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There is no chance of it being an ARMS 2 character. The Switch news update specifically says it is a character “from the ARMS game”. Not “the ARMS series”, not “the ARMS franchise”, not even just “ARMS”. It’s very clear.

Now could it be a redesign of an ARMS character(s) to their new design in ARMS 2? Maybe, but the fact is we don’t even know if ARMS 2 is a real thing.
 

Garteam

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so like do they have short-ranged stuff and we just abuse that instead
The way I envisioned it was being able to control the length of each attack. For example, you would get more range for holding f-tilt than tapping it. If your arm gets damaged, attacks that use it can't be extended very far (if at all).

I'd imagine there would be a few attacks that don't utilize this mechanic and thusly remain unaffected when your arms are damaged, but the character would be noticeably subpar without the range of their arms. It'll kinda be like using Hero when out of mana, it's not as bad as Sololimar or even SoPo, but you'd still feel that the character is clearly missing something from their kit.
 

DarthEnderX

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The theory posits that an ARMS character wasn't the first choice for FP6, hence why they're releasing later than usual, which implies, as per the previous pace, that the intended release would be around now. But any character ready to launch around now would be in such final stages of development that almost all the work would've been completed prior to the virus becoming prohibitive to work, and it wouldn't necessitate any substantial delay, much less a re-ordering.

The theory doesn't make sense.
It makes pefect sense.

Sakurai made it pretty clear that even if a character is finished, he still needs to present the finished product to the character's parent company. Something straight up said he won't do remotely for security reasons. And that meetings with other companies aren't possible right now because of Corona.

Sakurai explained all of this...RIGHT before the ARMS announcement was made.

The character that was SUPPOSED to be FP6 is probably completely finished. But can't be released because final approval can't be obtained right now.

Their high IQ brains can't fathom the possibility that they just opened with ARMS cause they wanted to.
No, I can't fathom them opening with a non-reveal. With no trailer, gameplay, render, or even reveal of the specific character. Unless it's not ready, because it wasn't supposed to be announced yet.

Also one thing to emphasize is Fighter 6 is being revealed in June, nothing said anything about them releasing in June.
Yes it did.
 
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Shroob

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I think 2B would be cool, but honestly I'm not entirely sure why Nintendo would be interested in including an IP that hasn't and most likely will never appear on their hardware. That remaster of the first Nier coming out could easily come to Switch but it just...isn't.

Even Persona has a few spinoffs on Nintendo.
This train of logic feels like the days where people would point to Cloud and try to justify his inclusion via minor cameos in KH:CoM or that Rhythm game.

I don't think Nintendo gives a damn if a character hasn't appeared on their hardware.



Has there ever been a character who has never been on a Nintendo platform before? Well by this point no, even FF7 is finally coming to a Nintendo console, but I highly doubt that has much at all to do with it.


While they do have entries on Nintendo platforms, I'll give you that, no one looks at Metal Gear or Persona and says "Ah yes, Nintendo."
 
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blackghost

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"ARMS wasn't first!" is a dumb theory in all honesty.

There's no way Sakurai wouldn't have met with whoever he needed to see before the coronavirus epidemic. Anything that could've caused a delay wouldn't be a problem specific to this character; it would apply to all characters. Even if we ignore this logic and assume that the orginal first character was indeed delayed, how the heck is Sakurai supposed to whip together a character who was planned for later by June? That's barely four months, and if he couldn't make Mewtwo that fast, how am I expected to believe he could do it with a completely orginal character?
this assumes a lot.
1. it assumes Nintendo and sakurai saw a global pandemic coming and proceeded to priotize smash dlc over larger sources of income or prepare in general.

2. it assumes that saurai would only need to meet with people one time to develop a character. i would guess it takes months of collaboration to design the stage, alts, and character properly with consults from the third party dev or creator

3. this reveal pattern still fits with nintendo on how they reveal games. they never show something until they have something of substance: a full trailer or even more ready. we didnt see hero or banjo until they were virtually playable even in trailer form. the earliest in the dev cycle we've ever seen smash dlc was mewtwo in smash 4.

4. its safe to say they do more than one character at a time. if the other character(s?) had to be put on hold becuase they required third party collaboration or under the circumstances weren't plausible, all those resources would fold into doing the ARMs character thus reducing dev time.

its not a perfect theory but i think its pretty solid.
 

Guynamednelson

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"ARMS 2 lead" is another thing some fans are clinging onto because it'd be the only possible ARMS rep that wouldn't break any "rules"

Wouldn't upgrade an assist trophy
Wouldn't upgrade a spirit
Wouldn't include a side character before the lead/mascot
So...what would happen if ARMS 2 somehow got revealed before the ARMS rep, and its trailer just has Spring Man and Ribbon Girl?
 

Shroob

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It makes pefect sense.

Sakurai made it pretty clear that even if a character is finished, he still needs to present the finished product to the character's parent company. Something straight up said he won't do remotely for security reasons. And that meetings with other companies aren't possible right now because of Corona.

Sakurai explained all of this...RIGHT before the ARMS announcement was made.

The character that was SUPPOSED to be FP6 is probably completely finished. But can't be released because final approval can't be obtained right now.

No, I can't fathom them opening with a non-reveal. With no trailer, gameplay, render, or even reveal of the specific character. Unless it's not ready, because it wasn't supposed to be announced yet.

Yes it did.
What do you mean 'final approval', pray tell?


The rights to these characters are given months if not years in advance. We already know that Banjo was basically given the green light as far back as June 2018 iirc, and we know that they were already planning a 2nd wave of DLC according to the placeholder slots in World of Light, as far back as Feb 2019. Couple the fact that characters aren't worked on one at a time, whoever was meant to be first in your train of thought was most likely done months ago before the pandemic hit.

Yes, I am aware that the companies most likely get to see their characters in action before they get shipped out, but this still doesn't make a whole lot of sense.


Even as someone who doesn't believe that Bayonetta officially 'won' the Smash4 ballot(Some meme pick like Goku or Shrek did almost assuredly), this is sounding like the "BaYONeTTa DiDN'T ActUAllY WIn!" argument.
 
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CaptainAmerica

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It makes pefect sense.

Sakurai made it pretty clear that even if a character is finished, he still needs to present the finished product to the character's parent company. Something straight up said he won't do remotely for security reasons. And that meetings with other companies aren't possible right now because of Corona.

Sakurai explained all of this...RIGHT before the ARMS announcement was made.

The character that was SUPPOSED to be FP6 is probably completely finished. But can't be released because final approval can't be obtained right now.
I guess I can see the argument that everything got shuffled.

Sakurai is exactly the type of person who would want to show the company in question the character once it's finished. The only question would be if that would happen before or after balancing, which is the part that takes forever.

There's definitely one character they've finished and are sitting on until he can show it to the company, and considering how much they're being secretive about it, I can believe that they'd rather delay than videoconference, especially if they do have a character in the wings they can throw in instead.

We did wait a while between Terry and Byleth, but following their release schedule I'd say end of April/beginning of May would have been the best release for the next character. However, unless they want to be in the habit of just dropping all characters, we should have seen something other than "The next character is from ARMS!" by now.

But in the grand scheme of things... does it matter if the releases got switched? What does that change? No matter if it did or not, it's not changing the characters that will be getting in, we'll just get them in a different order. So I'm not really holding much stock in it. Now if someone came by and said that Dovahkiin was supposed to be FP5, but then Nintendo made them switch with Byleth to promote Three Houses, and then Corona made them switch him back farther... I'll be annoyed I have to wait a bit longer, but still ridiculously stoked that he's in so I'd spend the extra time buying the rest of the DLC in celebration.

PS: I just thought of something... Are they gonna stick to the Byleth-style reveals of "Here's the character, available in a week!" or the Terry-style of "Here's the character trailer, now we'll give you a gameplay rundown in a month and a half when they're available!"
 

Koopaul

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I'm sure how they reveal the character really will depend on how far along in development they are and whether or not there's a Direct around that time. So just like last time, it will vary.
 
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Lukingordex

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What do you mean 'final approval', pray tell?
The rights to these characters are given months if not years in advance. We already know that Banjo was basically given the green light as far back as June 2018 iirc, and we know that they were already planning a 2nd wave of DLC according to the placeholder slots in World of Light, as far back as Feb 2019. Couple the fact that characters aren't worked on one at a time, whoever was meant to be first in your train of thought was most likely done months ago before the pandemic hit.

Yes, I am aware that the companies most likely get to see their characters in action before they get shipped out, but this still doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
The "green light" you mentioned is not the same thing as a "final approval". I assume there are certain "steps" that the two companies have to fulfill during the development of the character, not just the initial approval. The way I see it, a delayed "final approval" sounds like a very plausible scenario for a delay.

Considering how weird the ARMS character reveal was (no trailer and not even specifying who the fighter is), I do think that the idea that the ARMS character has switched places with a third party rep is very plausible.
 
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ZelDan

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PS: I just thought of something... Are they gonna stick to the Byleth-style reveals of "Here's the character, available in a week!" or the Terry-style of "Here's the character trailer, now we'll give you a gameplay rundown in a month and a half when they're available!"
I wouldn't be surprised if it's like FP1, where it was handled differently between characters.
 

DarthEnderX

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The rights to these characters are given months if not years in advance.
Having "the rights" doesn't mean you get to do whatever you want with the character though.

Sakurai can't just decide to put Cloud in the game with the handle of his Buster Sword shoved up his ***. SquareEnix has to look at what Sakurai does with the character and then give it the okay. So they can look at it and go "No, that color scheme isn't okay.", "His hair spike actually goes the other way.", "We don't want him making that pose." etc.

So once the character is done, Sakurai has to show the company what they've done so they can look at it and go "That's acceptable."

And right now, he can't do that with any of the other companies, because he can't schedule meetings with them, and he won't do it over the internet.

Even as someone who doesn't believe that Bayonetta officially 'won' the Smash4 ballot(Some meme pick like Goku or Shrek did almost assuredly), this is sounding like the "BaYONeTTa DiDN'T ActUAllY WIn!" argument.
I don't really understand whose making that argument. Being in FP6 instead of some other, later FP isn't "winning" anything. The slots aren't ranked. It's not like I'm suggesting and ARMS character wasn't going to make the cut, I'm just suggesting they switched up the order, which is why the announcement was so weird.

PS: I just thought of something... Are they gonna stick to the Byleth-style reveals of "Here's the character, available in a week!" or the Terry-style of "Here's the character trailer, now we'll give you a gameplay rundown in a month and a half when they're available!"
Well they already said FP6 will be announced AND released in June. So for the next character at least, it's the former.
 
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Shroob

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Having "the rights" doesn't mean you get to do whatever you want with the character though.

Sakurai can't just decide to put Cloud in the game with the handle of his Buster Sword shoved up his ***. SquareEnix has to look at what Sakurai does with the character and then give it the okay. So they can look at it and go "No, that color scheme isn't okay.", "His hair spike actually goes the other way.", "We don't want him making that pose." etc.

So once the character is done, Sakurai has to show the company what they've done so they can look at it and go "That's acceptable."

And right now, he can't do that with any of the other companies, because he can't schedule meetings with them, and he won't do it over the internet.

I don't really understand whose making that argument. Being in FP6 instead of some other, later FP isn't "winning" anything. The slots aren't ranked. It's not like I'm suggesting and ARMS character wasn't going to make the cut, I'm just suggesting they switched up the order, which is why the announcement was so weird.

Well they already said FP6 will be announced AND released in June. So for the next character at least, it's the former.
I mean, at the end of the day


It's fine and dandy to speculate and all about a potential switch, but we'll just straight up never know. This isn't like the DLC where one could look in the files and say "Oh Hero is next due to Brave being a thing". The ARMs character will take the spot after Byleth, and barring any internal leaks from someone working on Ultimate, well, we'll never know.


It's great to imagine something like this happening sure, but it's also something that can never be fully backed up with actual evidence outside of just "I feel" or "I think".


Sure, I think the way they announced the character is odd, but.... I mean the Direct in general was odd. I just don't see much merit into discussing the "IT WAS SWITCHED!" theory when... it really doesn't matter at all in the end, nor is there any actual evidence to cling ahold to outside of one's opinion on the presentation. Some people will think it was switched, some won't, there's no real right or wrong here, nor is there any evidence to pick apart, it's just.... a hunch.
 
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♕Pretty Roger♕

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I don't know if you guys know about this little publicity term called engagement?

What would be better for Nintendo, to reveal a character and get people reactions for a week (as ARMS it's not a groundbreaking reveal), or to give people something they would actually speculate about for months (that also helps promote your new IP)?

It's pretty clear this so called "weird reveal" objective was to make ARMS a discussion topic, which would not have happened if we got the character right away, if that were the case people would only talk about said character and not the whole game they come from.

A lot of ARMS characters have been TT, even ARMS 2 was trending since the announcement, in past reveals only the announced character gets attention, which is fine, but that works better if you want feedback, not engagement.
 

AEMehr

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with the ARMS song wishlist brought up I figure now would be a good time to bring up my theory

You: "groan Again, Rie? You and your outlandish theories!"

Yes, but hear me out please

You know how all DLC so far has/will come with music, with the sole exception (thus far) of Piranha Plant who is currently the only Individual DLC and was supposedly meant for base? Wanna point out that while ARMS has base game content in the form of the Spring Man Assist Trophy and a handful of Spirits, it has no music whatsoever in base. I'd like to think it gave a really sweet payout in the form of getting a (presumably not Spring Man) ARMS character in this second pass with a new stage, music, and ARMS series emblem.

Now let's look at some other series that don't have a playable character in base, and if they do, don't have a new one from another installment in their series.

No playable characters whatsoever:
- Panel de Pon: has the Lip costume, but unfortunately has one song, so I wouldn't count on Lip becoming playable this pass. Arle Nadja, if she happens, might have to scratch y'all's itch for a puzzle fighter.
- Sin and Punishment: You might be in luck. Saki Amamiya's AT is gone, he's a costume now, there are some spirits but to my knowledge no music (correct me if I'm wrong)
- Monster Hunter: if it was JUST the Rathalos Boss/AT I'd think this was possible, but there's also MonHun music in the base game so.... don't count on it
- Rhythm Heaven: I think it has music in base in addition to some Spirits? Correct me if I'm wrong.

Already repped series that don't have a character from their more recent installments:
- Splatoon: I like to think Inklings largely rep Splatoon 1 as Inkling Girl/Boy alts don't have the Splatoon 2 hairstyles. There's a handful of music from 1, some base game music from 2 (no Tidal Rush/Spicy CI though), and the Squid Sisters AT. The only Octo Expansion (which I count as an "installment" as it's a brand new side story) content so far is the Octoling Girl & Boy Spirit and Octoling Octopus Spirit. No music from Octo Expansion... here's hoping for my Veemo/Oomi babies
- Xenoblade: not counting the first game, only 2, X, and Torna. 2's content includes some music, Nia costume (base), Rex costume (with FPV1 purchase), and some Spirits. The music alone makes me think we won't get a 2 character this pass. Torna... we might get Lora as there's no Torna music, but most of Torna's tunes are 2 remixes anyway. Now for the elephant in the room... X. We got 5 Spirits (Elma, Lin, Lao, Tatsu and the Skell) and... that's LITERALLY it. No music. No costumes. No AT's. I'd say an X rep (particularly Elma if ARMS's character is a Spirit promotion with no other in game form like Min Min, Twintelle or Ninjara) is more likely than you think.
- ok fine I guess I will include the first game since Definitive Edition is on the way and that WILL have rearranged music. With a redesign and prominent role in the Future Connected new epilogue, Melia might be a choice. However, I have a feeling her epilogue design + Shulk's epilogue design might be on a Xenoblade rep's Spirit board if it includes all of Xenoblade. Other choice is Fiora, since again ARMS's rep is most likely to be a non-playable promotion of some kind (as the ones already present in the game are the most popular) and we all know what's going on with Chrom in this game. Plus, spoilers? WHAT spoilers, says Sakurai and Project X Zone 2?!
- Donkey Kong: yeah, we just got King K. Rool, and Dixie's a Spirit. But Dixie was also prominent in Tropical Freeze, which has no music in base to my knowledge. Other TF option could be Cranky Kong.
- Kirby: Bandana Waddle Dee (if Spirit promotion) or Adeleine (if not). Iirc there's no Star Allies music in game despite the Three Mage Sisters (or whatever they're called) Spirit? either BD or Ado could rep Star Allies
those two unfortunately already have music, nvm

tl;dr you've heard of "music theory" now get ready for "LACK of music theory". If an unrepped series, or specific installment of an already repped series, has no music in base, it doesn't matter what other content they have, they stand a chance of getting a playable rep in this pass

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. drops mic
you DO realize that byleth literally discounts everything you basically argued, right?
 

♕Pretty Roger♕

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you DO realize that byleth literally discounts everything you basically argued.
Does it? This person said "or a specific installment of an already repped series" and Three Houses had no music as far as I know.

I am indifferent about this theory by the way.
 

Cutie Gwen

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"ARMS wasn't first!" is a dumb theory in all honesty.

There's no way Sakurai wouldn't have met with whoever he needed to see before the coronavirus epidemic. Anything that could've caused a delay wouldn't be a problem specific to this character; it would apply to all characters. Even if we ignore this logic and assume that the orginal first character was indeed delayed, how the heck is Sakurai supposed to whip together a character who was planned for later by June? That's barely four months, and if he couldn't make Mewtwo that fast, how am I expected to believe he could do it with a completely orginal character?

My advice to the people who believe any of this is to calm down. Why does anyone even believe the first character decides the theme of the pass? Outside the last character never being huge, Smash has never had a pattern with its reveals. The pattern of the DLC for Smash 4 was nothing like the one in the first Fighter Pass. If the first character indicates what the entire pass will be like, then what did Mewtwo and Lucas say?
I find this rather ironic as you said it was very much possible a character would get pushed back like 2 days before the reveal
More than likely they'll just push back the character as long as they can until things can resume as normal, but there's always the small possibility of them replacing the character with someone else if too much time goes by without progress.

I'm not saying that's a likely scenario, but because they haven't revealed anyone yet, they can still change plans if need be.
A lot of it depends on how long the parties involved are dealing with the coronavirus. If they're still handling this in late 2020, then I do think Nintendo would give serious consideration to finding a different character(s). I don't think they're gonna keep stalling for what could potentially be a single character.
What I'm curious about is how they're gonna balance the ARMS character's range, especially if they're gonna be able to outrange the Belmonts and Byleth's Arendbar like Spring Man's assist trophy can. There's three ways I can see them going about this:

1. Double down on how they balanced the Belmonts: even more reach, even worse frame data.
2. Keep the long range and have decent frame data, but give them a very subpar damage output.
3. Do what their source material does, letting their arms get damaged and thusly losing their effectiveness, making it easy to punish players who try to abuse their long range.
I think it'll be a combination of 1 and 2, ARMS gives me big ass Dhalsim vibes and his attacks are always weak as **** individually iirc.

As for 3, if they want to reflect the source material then they make Spring Man a rushdown character who prefers getting close and personal lol
 

AEMehr

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Does it? This person said "or a specific installment of an already repped series" and Three Houses had no music as far as I know.

I am indifferent about this theory by the way.
Oh if they want to be super specific about it, I guess. Doesn't make it sound any less absurd though.
If they add a character, it just gives the opportunity to add more music relating to the character and the stage. Byleth is from Three Houses, so of course they're going to add music from that game. Not because the music is from a specific installment.

But regardless it is silly to think that music is at the forefront of the decision making process for fighters. Unless like, rights are a prevalent issue (like I'm sure they thought about how to approach how they they could grab Dragon Quest music in the early stages due to the nature of that situation).

Like, the real world isn't that convoluted in how it works lol.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Oh if they want to be super specific about it, I guess. Doesn't make it sound any less absurd though.
If they add a character, it just gives the opportunity to add more music relating to the character and the stage. Byleth is from Three Houses, so of course they're going to add music from that game. Not because the music is from a specific installment.

But regardless it is silly to think that music is at the forefront of the decision making process for fighters. Unless like, rights are a prevalent issue (like I'm sure they thought about how to approach how they they could grab Dragon Quest music in the early stages due to the nature of that situation).

Like, the real world isn't that convoluted in how it works lol.
As dumb as the theory is, XCX does indeed have rights issues due to Sawano owning the songs
 
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Even if this silly "they switched the character order" theory is true, there’s currently no real evidence to suggest that the character that switched places with the ARMS rep is a "SUPER HYPE THIRD PARTY." The company that Sakurai failed to meet up with could easily be that of a first party developer just as much as it could be a third party one.
 

Door Key Pig

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I guess the "switch order" theory would matter because maybe hypothetically, the original idea could have been to showcase ARMS guy last as the "humbler Nintendo choice saved for last after the third parties in terms of hype like Byleth was (which I called btw, just sayin')", thus giving us an idea of where first parties lie here... Except if it was that far along to be released in June perhaps it would have instead been one of the first three or so characters worked on at the same time, ergo NOT FP11 or similar. Plus there are other reasons; like Nintendo could have just wanted to establish this wave with a first party (especially if it turns out to be a Spirit/AT upgrade and sign of things to come) instead of a mere repeating of Joker or similar like last time; considering another third party was the way to assume the next wave was going to start off and that the first parties were possibly going to be like Byleth again, it sure caught us off-guard.
 

Mamboo07

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I feel bad for the Xenoblade fans who wanted Rex in Smash and bam, 8th anime sword user with cardboard personality gets in over him.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Say what you will about Rex but at least he'd be the second Xenoblade rep in Smash, whereas Byleth is the eigth Fire Emblem rep
Orrrr... the second Xenoblade rep could be Elma. Just sayin


Sakurai's Pic of the Day.

There’s an explanation for that
 
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Dinoman96

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Yeah and that could have gone to Reyn, Sharla, Dunban, Melia, Riki, Fiora or Elma instead
I mean Elma is one thing but I really do think giving one game in a series with a different cast each game more than one character in Smash is a waste.

I can excuse Chrom and Lucina because they're just echo fighters/bonus characters, but as far as unique characters are concerned? Nah.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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I mean Elma is one thing but I really do think giving one game in a series with a different cast each game more than one character in Smash is a waste.

I can excuse Chrom and Lucina because they're just echo fighters/bonus characters, but as far as unique characters are concerned? Nah.
I mean, the logo's literally the Monado from 1 and 1's the only game that isn't controversial
 
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