Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Do you mean that I’m incorrect about how folks treat leakers, or just the wording I gave?

If you hope that people blindly believing leakers doesn’t become prominent, then I hate to to tell you, but...

Just your example sentiment. I don't even know how one comes to believe that such a premise can lead to a conclusion like that. I do know that people have been gathering around the leakers for while but I hope no one (or at least, very few people) thinks that leakers are the only thing short of a reveal that can make something possible. They can provide concrete evidence provided they're not mistaken or lying but even then it's a pretty big if and also not the only source of information.

It is rare to see the Newcomer thread with just three users online.

I think it usually happens from now 'till my early morning. EDIT: It's probably night time for most frequent users here.

 

[N3ON]

I don’t think that statement is an outright deconfirmation for an MK character but I think the chances of one happening are extremely marginal at best anyway.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

It is rare to see the Newcomer thread with just three users online.

The perfect time for me to drop some information from my "sources":

So uh, yeah, I've been informed that the Treehouse staff, Bill Trinen, and Doug Bowser were seen drinking massive amounts of Pepsi during E3 2019.

Also something to consider...what do some folks do with empty Pepsi cans? They Smash them.

Yeah, I'm thinking he's in.

 

[Koopaul]

Think about this. We got six fighters left. SIX. Six that Nintendo chose. I'm going to assume that very few of them are Western characters. 2 at the most. Maybe none. Now lets be generous and say there are two. Do you think out of the hundreds of Western characters that are available that Nintendo would pick a Mortal Kombat character?

 

[Icedragonadam]

The Mortal Kombat interview never meant anything to me as Mortal Kombat getting a rep was always less than 1% in my eyes. A series built on bloody gory deaths where most of the games aren't even released in Japan won't get you far into Smash.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

The most likely western rep I think is Crash and Master Chief.

More likely Crash tbh.

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

Think about this. We got six fighters left. SIX. Six that Nintendo chose. I'm going to assume that very few of them are Western characters. 2 at the most. Maybe none. Now lets be generous and say there are two. Do you think out of the hundreds of Western characters that are available that Nintendo would pick a Mortal Kombat character?

I agree, Based on how Sakurai mentioned "Western Characters" and how he would be interested in them more when Banjo-Kazooie made it in.

At most I think we'll get 2, But I honestly believe we will at least get 1 minimum and my gut is telling me that the safest picks regarding western representation has gotta be Crash Bandicoot and Rayman.

Master Chief would be my 3rd "Wild Card" choice, Not as likely as Crash and Rayman, But still very possible.

What more can be said that hasn't been said about Crash Bandicoot? He seems like a no brainer and checks off a lot of boxes on what it usually takes to get into a game like Super Smash Bros, Makes the most sense and seems like the most obvious choice to represent a big 3rd Party company like Activision.

Rayman may not be the biggest name, But is still a significant character in gaming and the company mascot of a big 3rd party company like Ubisoft who has strong partnership with Nintendo, Not to mention those mii costumes of Rabbids and Assassins Creed show that Nintendo and Ubisoft are still making deals big and small and seems like it will eventually lead to Rayman.

I'd put money that at least one of these 2 are almost a guaranteed lock for Season 2.

 

[Izanagi97]

Anyone remember that time when MK11 videos were getting automatically demonetized on YouTube

 

[Mamboo07]

Anyone remember that time when MK11 videos were getting automatically demonetized on YouTube

I remember due to the amount of gore.

 

[Deleted member]

The most likely western rep I think is Crash and Master Chief.

More likely Crash tbh.

Same. Has the hype factor, has the console war facotr, yadda yadda.

The first people on my mind if Crash was revealed would probably be my parents.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

The most likely western rep I think is Crash and Master Chief.

More likely Crash tbh.

I think Lara's got a shot as well. She doesn't seem to be as wanted here but she has her merits and Nintendo's worked with the company that owns her for two characters already. That's not to say there wouldn't be any complications with her or that she's the most likely but I think she's worth considering.

And maybe she'll be the first SquareEnix character that gets more than two songs. *snicker snicker*

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

I think Lara's got a shot as well. She doesn't seem to be as wanted here but she has her merits and Nintendo's worked with the company that owns her for two characters already. That's not to say there wouldn't be any complications with her or that she's the most likely but I think she's worth considering.

And maybe she'll be the first SquareEnix character that gets more than two songs. *snicker snicker*

Lara Croft is worthy and definitely iconic, But I feel that the Tomb Raider franchise resonates with more mature gamers and the Playstation crowd than Nintendo's which probably explains the lack of support for her.

While Crash Bandicoot is the former defacto Playstation mascot, I feel that he's a more appealing pick to the Nintendo crowd (Along with Spyro) because they love their platformers and feels like a better fit with the majority of the cast among the likes of Mario, Yoshi, DK, Sonic and Banjo-Kazooie etc.

Not to mention many want to see him duke out with Mario as his rivalry is only 2nd to Sonic's historic feud with the Italian plumber.

If this was Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale 2 then it would be a completely different story.

 

[PLATINUM7]

Lara Croft is worthy and definitely iconic, But I feel that the Tomb Raider franchise resonates with more mature gamers and the Playstation crowd than Nintendo's which probably explains the lack of support for her.

While Crash Bandicoot is the former defacto Playstation mascot, I feel that he's a more appealing pick to the Nintendo crowd (Along with Spyro) because they love their platformers and feels like a better fit with the majority of the cast among the likes of Mario, Yoshi, DK, Sonic and Banjo-Kazooie etc.

Not to mention many want to see him duke out with Mario as his rivalry is only 2nd to Sonic's historic feud with the Italian plumber.

If this was Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale 2 then it would be a completely different story.

I expect just about every third party to be more likely for Smash than a PSASBR2.

 

[Koopaul]

Lara Croft is worthy and definitely iconic, But I feel that the Tomb Raider franchise resonates with more mature gamers and the Playstation crowd than Nintendo's which probably explains the lack of support for her.

While Crash Bandicoot is the former defacto Playstation mascot, I feel that he's a more appealing pick to the Nintendo crowd (Along with Spyro) because they love their platformers and feels like a better fit with the majority of the cast among the likes of Mario, Yoshi, DK, Sonic and Banjo-Kazooie etc.

Not to mention many want to see him duke out with Mario as his rivalry is only 2nd to Sonic's historic feud with the Italian plumber.

If this was Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale 2 then it would be a completely different story.

That didn't stop Snake. We got Snake and NOT Bomberman. Something to think about.

 

[Idon]

That didn't stop Snake. We got Snake and NOT Bomberman. Something to think about.

Well Snake did have Kojima go out of his way to ask Sakurai to put in Snake. Dunno if the same would be possible for Lara.

 

[Will]

That didn't stop Snake. We got Snake and NOT Bomberman. Something to think about.

If you beg for seven years you'll probably get in. Considering Travis is a Nintendo kinda-exclusive, wouldn't be surprised if he would join in because of it.

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

A series built on bloody gory deaths where most of the games aren't even released in Japan won't get you far into Smash.

I say this as a joke but this post is quite funny when you have Ryu Hayabusa in your signature

 

[Koopaul]

Well Snake did have Kojima go out of his way to ask Sakurai to put in Snake. Dunno if the same would be possible for Lara.

Well ChunkySlugger72 argument was that being mature and associated with Playstation will hurt a characters chances while being a cartoony mascot will increase your chances. There's lots to suggest that's not the case.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Think about this. We got six fighters left. SIX. Six that Nintendo chose. I'm going to assume that very few of them are Western characters. 2 at the most. Maybe none. Now lets be generous and say there are two. Do you think out of the hundreds of Western characters that are available that Nintendo would pick a Mortal Kombat character?

Slightly offtopic but considering we now know how Nintendo and Sakurai deal with picking the DLC, I just realized the biggest argument against Western characters kinda doesn't exist, a veto system would make Sakurai seem incredibly petty as Nintendo would say "Hey here's this character we're willing to negotiate for, should we go for it?" for anyone in this veto system

 

[Will]

A series built on bloody gory deaths where most of the games aren't even released in Japan won't get you far into Smash.

And we want Doomguy because? The Japanese audience literally sees Doomguy as another Samus like how we see anyone with a sword as Marth.

 

[wynn728]

Think about this. We got six fighters left. SIX. Six that Nintendo chose. I'm going to assume that very few of them are Western characters. 2 at the most. Maybe none. Now lets be generous and say there are two. Do you think out of the hundreds of Western characters that are available that Nintendo would pick a Mortal Kombat character?

If they put a western character then it's going to be a character that has appeal to the Japanese audience. Games like Doom and Mortal Kombat have no presence in Japan, so they're not going to happen. For Nintendo & Sakurai it's a 100% okay to add character that only have presence Japan, like how Fire Emblem didn't release outside of Japan when Melee was happening and how Mother 3 is still exclusive in Japan, because that's who they really want to appeal to. Looking at the Fighters Pass Vol 1 each character has presence for the Japanese audience (including Banjo). They're not going to make a DLC character that doesn't appeal to the Japanese fans since they will most likely not buy it.

But I also doubt they're going to include another western character in Smash. It took 20 years to get just one and it's only because Microsoft and Rare were really pushing for Banjo so much that they were easy to work with. Doesn't seem like they're going to really bother getting more characters like that unless the circumstances are favorable.

 

[Will]

If they put a western character then it's going to be a character that has appeal to the Japanese audience. Games like Doom and Mortal Kombat have no presence in Japan, so they're not going to happen. For Nintendo & Sakurai it's a 100% okay to add character that only have presence Japan, like how Fire Emblem didn't release outside of Japan when Melee was happening and how Mother 3 is still exclusive in Japan, because that's who they really want to appeal to. Looking at the Fighters Pass Vol 1 each character has presence for the Japanese audience (including Banjo). They're not going to make a DLC character that doesn't appeal to the Japanese fans since they will most likely not buy it.

But I also doubt they're going to include another western character in Smash. It took 20 years to get just one and it's only because Microsoft and Rare were really pushing for Banjo so much that they were easy to work with. Doesn't seem like they're going to really bother getting more characters like that unless the circumstances are favorable.

So pessimistic, you lots. We won't know until it's shown. Could be Skyrim in there for all we know, Todd Howard's gonna shove it down our throats for the twelfth time.

 

[Dark Bagel]

I agree, Based on how Sakurai mentioned "Western Characters" and how he would be interested in them more when Banjo-Kazooie made it in.

At most I think we'll get 2, But I honestly believe we will at least get 1 minimum and my gut is telling me that the safest picks regarding western representation has gotta be Crash Bandicoot and Rayman.

Master Chief would be my 3rd "Wild Card" choice, Not as likely as Crash and Rayman, But still very possible.

What more can be said that hasn't been said about Crash Bandicoot? He seems like a no brainer and checks off a lot of boxes on what it usually takes to get into a game like Super Smash Bros, Makes the most sense and seems like the most obvious choice to represent a big 3rd Party company like Activision.

Rayman may not be the biggest name, But is still a significant character in gaming and the company mascot of a big 3rd party company like Ubisoft who has strong partnership with Nintendo, Not to mention those mii costumes of Rabbids and Assassins Creed show that Nintendo and Ubisoft are still making deals big and small and seems like it will eventually lead to Rayman.

I'd put money that at least one of these 2 are almost a guaranteed lock for Season 2.

While I would be careful about using the word "lock" ANYWHERE near speculation, since countless seemingly-surefire predictions time and time again have been choppled, sliced, strangled, and schmeckledorfed by Sakurai and co, I definitely agree with you that Crash is arguably the top-dog contender for Western representation in Fighter pass 2, along with Rayman as a close second. Other westies that I think are worth mentioning that aren't hugely talked about within the speculation scene include Chell, as well as Ratchet & Clank, potential characters that hold their own merits in the realm of Smash's possibility.

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

Well ChunkySlugger72 argument was that being mature and associated with Playstation will hurt a characters chances while being a cartoony mascot will increase your chances. There's lots to suggest that's not the case.

I understand where you are coming from, But I never said that she didn't have a chance, All I said is why she lacks fan support regarding Super Smash Bros.

I"ve seen numerous times people post here "Why a character as iconic as Lara Croft doesn't get as much fan support ?" And what I posted before is the reason I think why.

 

[wynn728]

And we want Doomguy because? The Japanese audience literally sees Doomguy as another Samus like how we see anyone with a sword as Marth.

Guess what, what the Japanese audience think about a character is a thousand time more important what the western audience think of a character for Nintendo & Sakurai. Especially for DLC. We got character who's games never released outside of Japan, look at Fire Emblem during Melee and how Mother 3 is still Japanese exclusive. We already a character that only appeals to the western audience, Ridley, they satisfied that need so they're not going to focus on that.

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

While I would be careful about using the word "lock" ANYWHERE near speculation, since countless seemingly-surefire predictions time and time again have been choppled, sliced, strangled, and schmeckledorfed by Sakurai and co, I definitely agree with you that Crash is arguably the top-dog contender for Western representation in Fighter pass 2, along with Rayman as a close second. Other westies that I think are worth mentioning that aren't hugely talked about within the speculation scene include Chell, as well as Ratchet & Clank, potential characters that hold their own merits in the realm of Smash's possibility.

Which is why I said "Almost", Before I said guaranteed lock.

Ratchet & Clank would be sweet as they can use Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale as a base, While not impossible, It's very unlikely Sony will be involved as I would think they would rather do a sequel to PASBR then work with Nintendo regarding Smash.

I'm trying to be realistic with my predictions.

 

[wynn728]

So pessimistic, you lots. We won't know until it's shown. Could be Skyrim in there for all we know, Todd Howard's gonna shove it down our throats for the twelfth time.

Not pessimistic, it's realistic. Japanese Developers don't give a crap about the west, that's a reason why the netcode for Street Fighter V is so bad. They really cater to the Japanese audience, and the same is going to happen in Vol 2. We have so many examples of this being the case that it's a safe guess.

 

[TheShiningAbsol]

So pessimistic, you lots. We won't know until it's shown. Could be Skyrim in there for all we know, Todd Howard's gonna shove it down our throats for the twelfth time.

I still think Dragonborn is one of the most slept-on western characters. And I'm definitely not biased at all, I swear.

Also, Skyrim's only really technically been ported twice, three times if you want to count Skyrim VR

 

[Koopaul]

Slightly offtopic but considering we now know how Nintendo and Sakurai deal with picking the DLC, I just realized the biggest argument against Western characters kinda doesn't exist, a veto system would make Sakurai seem incredibly petty as Nintendo would say "Hey here's this character we're willing to negotiate for, should we go for it?" for anyone in this veto system

I don't think there's a veto system. It's just about what is likely and unlikely. And it's just more likely that Japanese characters would be picked over a western one for a number of reasons.

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

Not pessimistic, it's realistic. Japanese Developers don't give a crap about the west, that's a reason why the netcode for Street Fighter V is so bad. They really cater to the Japanese audience, and the same is going to happen in Vol 2. We have so many examples of this being the case that it's a safe guess.

What connection does SFV's horrible netcode have anything to do with Nintendo choosing characters for Smash's DLC? SFV's netcode has been awful since the game was in the beta phases, even for Japan. Has nothing to do with them catering to audiences.

 

[wynn728]

What connection does SFV's horrible netcode have anything to do with Nintendo choosing characters for Smash's DLC? SFV's netcode has been awful since the game was in the beta phases, even for Japan. Has nothing to do with them catering to audiences.

It's an example how Japanese Studios (like Nintendo & Capcom) make decisions that are more in favor for their Japanese audiences. The Netcode that Capcom use for SFV is more in beneficial for players in Japan. So seeing how many Japanese Studios have that kind of mindset (including Nintendo with a lot of their games) means that when Nintendo is picking out characters they're going to pick the ones that really appear to the Japanese audience.

 

[Lionfranky]

Not pessimistic, it's realistic. Japanese Developers don't give a crap about the west, that's a reason why the netcode for Street Fighter V is so bad. They really cater to the Japanese audience, and the same is going to happen in Vol 2. We have so many examples of this being the case that it's a safe guess.

It's weird since more than half of sales come from non-Japan territory. Just because it has been like that doesn't mean it will stay that way though.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Guess what, what the Japanese audience think about a character is a thousand time more important what the western audience think of a character for Nintendo & Sakurai. Especially for DLC. We got character who's games never released outside of Japan, look at Fire Emblem during Melee and how Mother 3 is still Japanese exclusive. We already a character that only appeals to the western audience, Ridley, they satisfied that need so they're not going to focus on that.

They were actually considering cutting the Fire Emblem stuff in Melee’s English localization but decided to keep it. Sakurai added Lucas to Brawl because he didn’t know Mother 3 wouldn’t be localized, and removed him in Smash 4 only to bring him back as DLC because he was a fan-favorite. While Mother 3 doesn’t have an official localization, I’m pretty sure Nintendo is aware of the fan translation and then there’s the Mother 3 joke they had at one E3 and Reggie still being unable to escape the joke questions even after retiring.

There’s also Banjo & Kazooie, which while yes had some Japanese popularity, had a whole lot of Western fan demand and they even wanted Kirkhope to arrange a remix, making him the first Western composer to work on Smash, so with this along with the other stuff I mentioned, I’m sure they do give a crap about the West even if they still want to appeal to Japan at least somewhat (and why wouldn’t they? They’re a Japanese company). It should be obvious that they care about the West, anyway, as they’d want to sell/listen to us as well to keep making more cash.

 

[TheShiningAbsol]

It's an example how Japanese Studios (like Nintendo & Capcom) make decisions that are more in favor for their Japanese audiences. The Netcode that Capcom use for SFV is more in beneficial for players in Japan. So seeing how many Japanese Studios have that kind of mindset (including Nintendo with a lot of their games) means that when Nintendo is picking out characters they're going to pick the ones that really appear to the Japanese audience.

I agree with a lot of your takes most of the time, but this is literally comparing apples to oranges and then saying, “well, they’re both fruit”. Capcom’s usual incompetence has nothing to do with Smash.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't think there's a veto system. It's just about what is likely and unlikely. And it's just more likely that Japanese characters would be picked over a western one for a number of reasons.

Sakurai's latest Famitsu colomn said Nintendo suggests the character and Sakurai then makes the final decision, strongly implying a veto system

 

[wynn728]

It's weird since more than half of sales come from non-Japan territory. Just because it has been like that doesn't mean it will stay that way though.

Some things are too stubborn to change.

 

[MisterMike]

The Netcode that Capcom use for SFV is more in beneficial for players in Japan.

That's because Japan is an island that's at least one fourth the size of the US. Less distance will obviously means better connections, it has nothing to do with Japanese companies having a homefield preference.

So seeing how many Japanese Studios have that kind of mindset (including Nintendo with a lot of their games) means that when Nintendo is picking out characters they're going to pick the ones that really appeal to the Japanese audience.

The characters chosen for Smash have nothing to do with Nintendo or anybody preferring Japanese characters over western ones. If actuality, it has more to do with the fact that the majority of the most iconic video game characters just so happen created and owned by Japanese companies: (Capcom, Japanese), (SEGA, Japanese), (Konami, Japanese), (SquareEnix, Japanese), almost all of the goddamn Nintendo-owned characters.

But besides that, how can you unironically say that the 6 characters we'll be getting are going to be entirely catered towards Japanese audiences? Have you seriously forgotten that, in this game alone, we've gotten four characters that were either created by western developers () or were included to cater to the western fanbase? ('s DQ8 skin)
Wynn, why do you do this?

 

[perfectchaos83]

That's because Japan is an island that's at least one fourth the size of the US. Less distance will obviously means better connections, it has nothing to do with Japanese companies having a homefield preference.


The characters chosen for Smash have nothing to do with Nintendo or anybody preferring Japanese characters over western ones. If actuality, it has more to do with the fact that the majority of the most iconic video game characters just so happen created and owned by Japanese companies: (Capcom, Japanese), (SEGA, Japanese), (Konami, Japanese), (SquareEnix, Japanese), almost all of the goddamn Nintendo-owned characters.

But besides that, how can you unironically say that the 6 characters we'll be getting are going to be entirely catered towards Japanese audiences? Have you seriously forgotten that, in this game alone, we've gotten four characters that were either created by western developers () or were included to cater to the western fanbase? ('s DQ8 skin)
Wynn, why do you do this?

Simply put, Japanese companies have a far easier time dealing with Japanese companies. That's mainly the issue. After over 20 years, we only just now got our first western owned character in Smash and even then there's enough reason to justify some sort of exception for Banjo.

Personally, I expect, at most, one western character in this next batch.

 

[Icedragonadam]

What is a Charlie Brown?

A miserable pile of rocks!

pic.twitter.com/Y3ncqN0O0U

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) February 22, 2020

 

[Lionfranky]

Simply put, Japanese companies have a far easier time dealing with Japanese companies. That's mainly the issue. After over 20 years, we only just now got our first western owned character in Smash and even then there's enough reason to justify some sort of exception for Banjo.

Personally, I expect, at most, one western character in this next batch.

Then, Master Chief is next bet because they already worked with Microsoft for Banjo. It's easier to work with the same western company than new western company. And, Microsoft is already willing to put Chief into Smash since official Halo Twitter account showed that gif. The account is run by a guy, but he still had to get approval from higher up within Microsoft.