Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Fenriraga]

Thinking about first parties is... Weird. Obviously we still have many, many great options from Nintendo's own series, but at the same time, we've covered so many that it's hard to name anyone who could bring the same wow factor as a third party.

Plus, we've covered so many genres within Nintendo's own walls that the best way to go is to branch to games outside it, I feel.

...Also, not sure why people think a spirit event means anything about the chances of a Direct, but alright.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Splatoon has really ****ed up peoples' perception of both what a successful new IP is, and what the barometer for entry is, huh? Splatoon has sold like 10 million units with only two titles - it's more successful than most series on the roster.

I mean, ARMS would've been included on the roster, and that one game sold less than half of what one Splatoon title sold, which itself was still over double that of what Xenoblade sold when Shulk got in. (yada yada sales don't equal inclusion, which is true, but it's a rough metric for audience size, which matters)

And by Smash 6, two games after the likes of Xenoblade got in, the bar is going to be that much lower. No IP needs to perform even near what Splatoon did. Splatoon is an aberration, the success of which even caught Nintendo by surprise.

If Astral Chain can get a sequel, it'll probably get in based on the virtue of simply being a current IP with multiple titles.

This is probably ARMS's fault. The mentality is that characters should be from series that made some sort of impact. Splatoon definitely did, but ARMS was nothing more than a flash in the pan. I personally would say ARMS is still worthy of a character but that's just because I like the game. I guarantee you we won't see an ARMS character join Smash as a full character. Ever. Not unless the game gets a sequel for some reason.

 

[Deleted member]

honestly, I wouldn't mind too much if DLC went exclusively the third party route from here on out

don't get me wrong, I'd love some first parties, but there's so many more possibilities with third parties in comparison

It may just be me, but there's only so many potential Nintendo candidates left before first party additions would get a little... stale.

when you open the floodgates and bring in third parties however, the sky's the limit

never in a million years did I think we'd see the likes of Joker and Terry, but dang man, there's so more where that came from

Third parties are exciting and cover a large range of people, but part of me wouldn't mind if Smash Bros did a dead IP pass where they revive dead characters and series like Golden Sun, Custom Robo, and Advance Wars. Just one of those series coming back would be amazing even if it isn't Joker or BK tier of hype.

 

[N3ON]

Why stop now?

because we still don't have waluigi

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Especially since we still had people who wanted to get rid of all of the 3rd party characters in the last speculation cycle.

Those comments have aged wonderfully. As have the posts people make to this day trying to argue that Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, and Banjo & Kazooie are the only characters that fit Smash Bros.



Also, RIP Astral Chain. Great game and genuinely one of the few first parties I was totally on board with getting if they showed up. New, super cool universe with tons of moveset potential baked right in, but here we are. I feel like third parties are indeed baring down on the future DLC more than they already were (Astral Chain, Three Houses, and Ring Fit Adventure were basically the last three holdouts and AC is going down with the other two have an uphill battle for their own reasons...).

I'm going to laugh my ass off and fully embrace a Three Houses character if they're the only first party DLC we get though lol.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Probably a dumb question to ask but do you guys think an Spirit Board this week deconfirms an potential Nintendo Direct?

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

honestly, I wouldn't mind too much if DLC went exclusively the third party route from here on out

don't get me wrong, I'd love some first parties, but there's so many more possibilities with third parties in comparison

It may just be me, but there's only so many potential Nintendo candidates left before first party additions would get a little... stale.

when you open the floodgates and bring in third parties however, the sky's the limit

never in a million years did I think we'd see the likes of Joker and Terry, but dang man, there's so more where that came from

INFIDEL.

HOW DARE YOU WISH THAT MY NINTENDO FIGHTING GAME which has been stated multiple times as a celebration of gaming instead of solely Nintendo DILUTE ITSELF WITH OUTSIDE CHARACTERS. NINTENDO HAS A LARGE LIBRARY OF ICONIC CHARACTERS (EXCEPT FIRE EMBLEM AND XENOBLADE WE DON'T NEED MORE ANIME SWORDSMEN) THAT WOULD TOTALLY OUTSELL THIRD PARTIES BECAUSE THE ECHO CHAMBER I KEEP MYSELF IN SAYS SO AND DESERVE TO GET IN BASED OFF OF THE ARBITRARY 100% CORRECT CRITERIA I HAVE CREATED.

Being serious for a second, I largely agree. Nintendo doesn't have many large first party characters left at this point, and even less if you count characters not already assists or spirits. Comparatively, there's large potential for third party additions to add to the crossover and gameplay sides of Smash. A character like 2B, Lloyd, or Sol simply has more potential for a unique moveset than most of Nintendo's remaining characters, even including spirit/assist upgrades.

Uh, I mean, ALL CAPS POST MAKING FUN OF SMASH SPECULATORS EVEN THOUGH I AM A SMASH SPECULATOR MYSELF AND AM THEREFORE MAKING FUN OF MYSELF AS WELL.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Watch and see that Three Houses are the next characters to get a Spirit Board.

It'll make you wonder what 1st parties might be getting in as post-DLC then at that point.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I don't see how the spirit board has any connection to a possible direct. Where are you people getting that idea from?

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm never giving up hope for first party DLC.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I don't see how the spirit board has any connection to a possible direct. Where are you people getting that idea from?

Yeah figured that'd be a dumb question...Maybe people not getting their hopes up perhaps?

 

[Guynamednelson]

THAT WOULD TOTALLY OUTSELL

I don't think that they would totally outsell, but rather just not be the massive commercial failures you guys make them out to be.

A character like 2B, Lloyd, or Sol simply has more potential for a unique moveset than most of Nintendo's remaining characters

I am interested in a couple of these, but unique movesets aren't all about adding a game's mechanics into Smash, and at some point hype regarding expanding the crossover like this stops being about playing the game and more about just flooding the title screen with copyright information.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Third parties are exciting and cover a large range of people, but part of me wouldn't mind if Smash Bros did a dead IP pass where they revive dead characters and series like Golden Sun, Custom Robo, and Advance Wars. Just one of those series coming back would be amazing even if it isn't Joker or BK tier of hype.

I'm still waiting for my Ice Climber reboot. The world needs a good co-op action or platformer or whatever direction they want to take it game.

I'm going to laugh my ass off and fully embrace a Three Houses character if they're the only first party DLC we get though lol.

And I will enjoy being wrong. Especially if it's Byleth with assistance from the three lords.

What if his Final Smash was a battalion, but all of the soldiers were the other house members? That'd be so cool!

Probably a dumb question to ask but do you guys think an Spirit Board this week deconfirms an potential Nintendo Direct?

No. I still expect one. I just can't believe that they'd just randomly shadow drop the next character after being radio silent for so long.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Probably a dumb question to ask but do you guys think an Spirit Board this week deconfirms an potential Nintendo Direct?

Nah since neither a direct or even Sakurai's presentations ever mention them.

 

[RaintheCriminalWhirlwind]

Welp, Astral Chain for smash is dead.

Watch and see that Three Houses are the next characters to get a Spirit Board.

It'll make you wonder what 1st parties might be getting in as post-DLC then at that point.

I would be sad. While 2B is my first choice. Edelgard and Byleth rose up to my top five, after Morrigan and Phoenix

 

[BZL8]

Watch and see that Three Houses are the next characters to get a Spirit Board.

It'll make you wonder what 1st parties might be getting in as post-DLC then at that point.

I think the bigger question now is if 1st parties are even on the table post-DLC.

 

[RileyXY1]

I don't think that they would totally outsell, but rather just not be the massive commercial failures you guys make them out to be.

I am interested in a couple of these, but unique movesets aren't all about adding a game's mechanics into Smash, and at some point hype regarding expanding the crossover like this stops being about playing the game and more about just flooding the title screen with copyright information.

I think you're right. Some people are supporting third parties for the sake of adding more third parties.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think we can still get Nintendo characters. But pre-2017, as evidenced with Spring Man (Assist Trophy), Rex (Mii Costume), and Officer Howard (DLC Spirit). Octoling (from 2018’s Splatoon 2 Octo Expansion) might be an exception as they can be a semi clone of Inkling (or even Echo if they’re fair game post pass)

but yeah, BRING ON BLACK SHADOW AND ELMA BAYBEEEEEEEEEE

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

I'd much rather have new blood in the series than a character from a franchise already represented in the game. Despite not knowing much about Dragon Quest or Banjo & Kazooie their inclusions intrigued me a lot.

 

[Deleted member]

I think the bigger question now is if 1st parties are even on the table post-DLC.

I hope, but we currently have no reason to believe what Post Pass will give us right now

 

[N3ON]

This is probably ARMS's fault. The mentality is that characters should be from series that made some sort of impact. Splatoon definitely did, but ARMS was nothing more than a flash in the pan. I personally would say ARMS is still worthy of a character but that's just because I like the game. I guarantee you we won't see an ARMS character join Smash as a full character. Ever. Not unless the game gets a sequel for some reason.

ARMS is going to get a character, it just didn't work now because of timing. It already would've. So, in a way, I do agree with you. If ARMS had gotten a character, that would currently set the expectation for what it takes, not the unrealistic Splatoon levels it is now. Not that Astral Chain reached ARMS' levels, but at least it's easier to reconcile than the disparity between Splatoon and... any new IP. Like, Splatoon 2 has sold better than most Zelda games. Zelda games.

And the reason ARMS still will get a character is because, whether it had legs (heheh) or not, it still sold over two million copies at full retail price. That's just as much as series like Kirby or Fire Emblem or Metroid hope to sell, if not more. For Nintendo to not at least try to recapture some semblance of that potential is just leaving money on the table. And then it'll be a title with multiple entries.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I don't think that they would totally outsell, but rather not just be the massive commercial failures you guys make them out to be.

I am interested in a couple of these, but unique movesets aren't all about adding a game's mechanics into Smash, and at some point hype regarding expanding the crossover like this stops becoming about playing the game and more about just flooding the title screen with copyright information.

But Sakurai clearly said that how fun a character would be to play is more important than being recognizable (and I would also guess other factors that we think are more important than they actually are).

Even outside of adding a game's mechanics to Smash there's potential for fun, unique movesets that a character like Dixie Kong or another first party can't necessarily bring to the table.

 

[PSIGuy]

New Fighter Presentations are done way in advance while Spirit Board updates seem like something they hoard up and release in dead periods to get people to boot up the game again. Their release/reveal date seems unconnected to anything else.

Also all aboard the no Direct until February train. It's only bad news from here through January.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

but yeah, BRING ON BLACK SHADOW AND ELMA BAYBEEEEEEEEEE

You and me both girl! Especially Elma! We gotta keep rooting for her!

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I'm still waiting for my Ice Climber reboot. The world needs a good co-op action or platformer or whatever direction they want to take it game.


And I will enjoy being wrong. Especially if it's Byleth with assistance from the three lords.

What if his Final Smash was a battalion, but all of the soldiers were the other house members? That'd be so cool!


No. I still expect one. I just can't believe that they'd just randomly shadow drop the next character after being radio silent for so long.

Hell I am expecting one because I can count with one hand on how many first party titles coming out this year, while still counting the one comes that is coming out this Friday and all without even using all of my fingers that hand to count the number of first party 2020 titles, which is only 4.

 

[Droodle]

honestly, I wouldn't mind too much if DLC went exclusively the third party route from here on out

don't get me wrong, I'd love some first parties, but there's so many more possibilities with third parties in comparison

It may just be me, but there's only so many potential Nintendo candidates left before first party additions would get a little... stale.

When you open the floodgates and bring in third parties however, the sky's the limit

Never in a million years did I think we'd see the likes of Joker, Banjo, and Terry, but dang man, there's so more where that came from. Why stop now?

The best thing about third parties is that it gives a shout out to series that not everyone may be familiar with, but are still very important/relevant in the history of games.

Obviously most of us play a ton of Nintendo games, and it's only natural to want characters who you know/played as; but there are still so many important series out there that should be in. even if we're not familiar with them. Smash is a great way to learn about series that are outside the Nintendo "bubble".

I'm willing to bet a good chunk of people (not necessarily here) had their first real experience with series like Persona, Dragon Quest, Banjo-Kazooie through Smash, some of those people probably went to play the games in that series, and some of those people probably fell in love with that series.

I didn't talk about Fatal Fury because I think it deserves a special mention. As someone who goes on pretty much every big forum/board there, I really think Terry is special in how much he pushed the envelope for who could get in Smash. Since 2018 till the SNK leak, I had seen around 5 serious posts of people saying that Terry should be in Smash (one of them also mentioned Adol, which led me to make my Adol/Falcom post a week ago on page 1831).

I think Terry is a perfect example of what makes Sakurai so special, he obviously enjoys adding fan-favorites like Banjo, however, he also sees the importance of making Smash a history museum of fan-picks, first party characters, major 3rd parties, and lesser (but still influential) 3rd parties. Most people would probably just pick what the most "popular" characters are.

 

[Deleted member]

But Sakurai clearly said that how fun a character would be to play is more important than being recognizable (and I would also guess other factors that we think are more important than they actually are).

Even outside of adding a game's mechanics to Smash there's potential for fun, unique movesets that a character like Dixie Kong or another first party can't necessarily bring to the table.

We all know that was a throwaway comment for people who didn't recognize Sakurai's childhood character. It's not like characters like Andy (Advance Wars), Ray Mk III, or Isaac are incapable of bringing new movesets and fun mechanics to the table.

 

[Deleted member]

Well, there goes my most wanted first party pick and probably only must from Nintenfo themselves. Kinda disappointed but at the same time, I can see them eventually.

I frankly don't see first parties as likely as before which was pretty much only AC and 3H, I really was doubting upgrades before and now I'm doubting them even more.

I could see an scenario where AC and RE got passed of as we could be very well reaching the end of the DLC sooner rather than later, and that these franchises just missed out.

 

[RileyXY1]

We all know that was a throwaway comment for people who didn't recognize Sakurai's childhood character. It's not like characters like Andy (Advance Wars), Ray Mk III, or Isaac are incapable of bringing new movesets and fun mechanics to the table.

You're right. Some of the more obscure Nintendo characters would be just as fun to play as many of the more heavily requested third parties.

 

[Ura]

Third parties are exciting and cover a large range of people, but part of me wouldn't mind if Smash Bros did a dead IP pass where they revive dead characters and series like Golden Sun, Custom Robo, and Advance Wars. Just one of those series coming back would be amazing even if it isn't Joker or BK tier of hype.

Yeah there's a sizeable audience for these franchises and if they were to get a revival on the Switch/Mobile, I don't see why they wouldn't be included as DLC.

I'm never giving up hope for first party DLC.

Yep. It ain't over until DLC is all said and done as far as i'm concerned.

Although it's going to be pretty damn grating hearing everyone sing doom & gloom about 1st parties from here on out. Spare me please.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Ray Mk III

I'm curious to see if those people who use the Ray costume as a stand in for Optimus Prime/Gundam accidentally resulted in him being a DLC fighter.

 

[Deleted member]

You're right. Some of the more obscure Nintendo characters would be just as fun to play as many of the more heavily requested third parties.

Exactly. Issue is appeal and marketing. The three series I listed are just not relevant anymore and only one has serious fan demand from the core base (Golden Sun).

I'll consume whatever product Sakurai pumps out because I'm a mindless animal with Smash Bros, but damn shame these franchises can't be celebrated along with other dead series like F-Zero and BK.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

A couple of people have pointed out that they usually announce the Spirit Events on Tuesdays, and this one is on Monday, so that might mean...

Nah, intern-kun is just going to be out of town tomorrow and wants to get this **** over with early lol.

 

[RileyXY1]

Although it's going to be pretty damn grating hearing everyone sing doom & gloom about 1st parties from here on out. Spare me please.

Well, you've got me around, so it will never be anything like that.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

We all know that was a throwaway comment for people who didn't recognize Sakurai's childhood character. It's not like characters like Andy (Advance Wars), Ray Mk III, or Isaac are incapable of bringing new movesets and fun mechanics to the table.

Even Bandanna Waddle Dee could have some sort of Friend mechanic if they wanted to go down that route. I also believe it's important that not every character be so gimmicky. Gimmicks are fun but they can become fatiguing if every newcommer had something that centralizes it's moveset/playstyle.

 

[RileyXY1]

Even Bandanna Waddle Dee could have some sort of Friend mechanic if they wanted to go down that route. I also believe it's important that not every character be so gimmicky. Gimmicks are fun but they can become fatiguing if every newcommer had something that centralizes it's moveset/playstyle.

Yeah. It would get boring after a while.

Yeah there's a sizeable audience for these franchises and if they were to get a revival on the Switch/Mobile, I don't see why they wouldn't be included as DLC.

That's what I'm thinking too. These franchises all have sizable fanbases who would gladly buy these characters if they're made DLC.

 

[Deleted member]

Even Bandanna Waddle Dee could have some sort of Friend mechanic if they wanted to go down that route. I also believe it's important that not every character be so gimmicky. Gimmicks are fun but they can become fatiguing if every newcommer had something that centralizes it's moveset/playstyle.

Eh. I've so far enjoyed every gimmick Smash gave us minus Ken and Ryu's inputs because of their unreliability. As long as I can control it.

Though I am perfectly happy Banjo didn't get a Bear Guage or something

 

[Guynamednelson]

Gimmicks are fun but they can become fatiguing if every newcommer had something that centralizes it's moveset/playstyle.

That's what I meant when I said "unique movesets aren't all about adding a game's mechanics into Smash."

 

[BZL8]

Astral Chain director Takahisa Taura is happy that Astral Chain made it in some shape or form. Understandably, he's bummed they aren't playable, but he is still happy that the game got some form of representation.

スマブラのスピリッツにアストラルチェインが登場！！これはゲットせねば……！！#ASTRALCHAIN https://t.co/JgVI8R7fqI

— 田浦 貴久 / Takahisa Taura (@TauraTakahisa) January 14, 2020

 

[Deleted member]

Thinking about first parties is... Weird. Obviously we still have many, many great options from Nintendo's own series, but at the same time, we've covered so many that it's hard to name anyone who could bring the same wow factor as a third party.

Plus, we've covered so many genres within Nintendo's own walls that the best way to go is to branch to games outside it, I feel.

...Also, not sure why people think a spirit event means anything about the chances of a Direct, but alright.

I mean, we don't really need a wow. I think people may have gotten spoiled if they think we really need one just because we got Joker, Terry, and Hero. Plus, depending on how they did it, they could take a character some would see as 'meh' and make them incredibly fun to play as. They've already done it with a potted plant; they could give us someone like Impa and make them a really unique, fun-to-play spear user or something.

They're obviously going full 3rd party for this pass, but the next one isn't set in stone yet, so we could go back to 1st party characters then and they could mostly certainly keep the hype up with characters, but they're not really obligated to. Everyone fell for the Grinch leak because it was pure wish fulfillment and was the 'go out on a high note' reveal they were anticipating as opposed to being repeatedly warned Nintendo doesn't do that. I think people are setting themselves up for disappointment again if they're expecting some kind of colossal, internet-shattering note for them to end on.