Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[MooMew64]

Obviously there won't be a Direct in January, because we're getting a Direct this month.

Obviously, it will be announced tonight at The Game Awards.

 

[SNEKeater]

Most safe bet is a January Direct but I'm betting for a Smash direct this december.
The next wave of amiibos was 11 or 12 of January I am right? If we follow the pattern with previous DLC we should get the reveal this month, I think.

 

[MooMew64]

Was thinking January, but nah I'mma go with February.

Nintendo hardly ever does anything in January. Only thing they've done of note in January in the past 5 years was a Direct Mini, and that's about as much as I think y'all could hope for at this point. We're probably not seeing FP5 'till mid February.

 

[Hinata]

Obviously, it will be announced tonight at The Game Awards.

It'll be a Direct to show off Fighter 5, who will also be announced at the Game Awards!

 

[Calamitas]

Most safe bet is a January Direct but I'm betting for a Smash direct this december.
The next wave of amiibos was 11 or 12 of January I am right? If we follow the pattern with previous DLC we should get the reveal this month, I think.

17th of January. Considering that Sakurai also talks about the upcoming amiibos in his presentations, an ideal situation would be FP5 releasing before that date. But eh, I really doubt that that'll happen.

 

[Droodle]

Simply put, we have no reason to believe a direct will be announced in January. I lean towards nay, but that's just me being pessimistic.

We can at least assume February is the latest month. Why? Because the DLC Wave 1 is scheduled to end at Feb 2020.

Personally I am leaning towards a January direct. They're ahead in terms of DLC schedule, and typically speaking their has always been a January direct/mini direct/indie direct for the last 3 years (except last year the indie direct was EU only). We've already had a WW indie direct this week, so that most likely wouldn't happen in January.

Nintendo also skimmed hard on TGA this year, and they only have 2 major first party games announced for next year (XC:DE and Animal Crossing), and they've barely talked about XC too. The next line of Smash Amiibo's release on the 17th, so I think that we'll likely get a direct/presentation around that time.

 

[Wunderwaft]

There's always the chance that Nintendo reveals the fighter in February and releases them later at the end of the month. Not saying it's likely but it's something to consider as well. I expect a reveal in January if there is no direct in the upcoming week.

 

[Deleted member]

Personally I am leaning towards a January direct. They're ahead in terms of DLC schedule, and typically speaking their has always been a January direct/mini direct/indie direct for the last 3 years (except last year the indie direct was EU only). We've already had a WW indie direct this week, so that most likely wouldn't happen in January.

Nintendo also skimmed hard on TGA this year, and they only have 2 major first party games announced for next year (XC:DE and Animal Crossing), and they've barely talked about XC too. The next line of Smash Amiibo's release on the 17th, so I think that we'll likely get a direct/presentation around that time.

That sounds possible. Now I just hope you're right.

 

[andree123]

Additionally, to update you guys, Fatmanonice was answering stuff the other day and he said he doesn’t think 5 or 6 is Geno. Someone asked him if he could give us a hint as who 6 would be then, and he said this.


View attachment 252843

So this would make Geno be most likely the Fighter 7 slot. I’m not saying I take this as leaks or anything it’s just the usual additive speculation, but you can’t deny Fatman is talking about a pretty awesome timeline here haha

Some actual Fatmanonice rumor, take a grain of salt as that may be one of his personal speculations.

 

[MooMew64]

Everyone saying they are "ahead of schedule" when they've never promised us or gave us a schedule are making some pretty bold assumptions here.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Some actual Fatmanonice rumor, take a grain of salt as that may be one of his personal speculations.

Dude, everytime Fatman is brought up in here, people attack him as if he's some horrible person. Leave his stuff in the Geno thread.

 

[Calamitas]

Some actual Fatmanonice rumor, take a grain of salt as that may be one of his personal speculations.

I'd really rather not hear any more from or about Fatman in this thread. The guy has never been right about anything, and has only kept this needless drama alive for longer than it needed to.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Can anyone PM me about what went down in the Geno thread? Heard it got locked yesterday.

 

[Hinata]

There's always the chance that Nintendo reveals the fighter in February and releases them later at the end of the month. Not saying it's likely but it's something to consider as well. I expect a reveal in January if there is no direct in the upcoming week.

I mean, there is precedent for Sakurai announcing a DLC character and then just immediately releasing them.

Ryu and Roy were released on the very same day they were announced back in the Smash 4 days.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Some actual Fatmanonice rumor, take a grain of salt as that may be one of his personal speculations.

Stop mentioning Fatman in here. This thread is better off without any "leakers" attempting to force discussion on a character. Remember how Sabi backed the Brew leak and implied Jonesy was coming? Yeah so much for that. None of them know any of the DLC fighters and they're all grade-A bull****ters.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Now we know it’s locked for the next Nintendo direct that isn’t a special direct (not smash related)

Either December or January easily

Now to point out a though process now that sabi and verge are potentially wrong now

Three thoughts

First one of the deconfirmed characters from both list if it can be thrown out now anyway

Second I’m considering that FP5 is eastern favored like hero the theory comes down to no reveal at vga the FP5 was clearly not worthy for it unlike joker since he’s/persona 5 is worldwide/western loved and Sakurai said it doesn’t have to be a known character it just has to be a fun character

Third the master chief train is reactivated now that vga is over with and the kos-mos leak can be thrown away and the halo collection plus him as FP5 could be shown at whenever the next general direct is

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I mean, there is precedent for Sakurai announcing a DLC character and then just immediately releasing them.

Ryu and Roy were released on the very same day they were announced back in the Smash 4 days.

Seeing as how the servers crashed that same day I don’t think they’ll repeat that mistake again lmao

 

[Hinata]

Seeing as how the servers crashed that same day I don’t think they’ll repeat that mistake again lmao

The servers will crash regardless of when they release the character. That's just how Nintendo's servers work.

 

[Wigglerman]

Everyone saying they are "ahead of schedule" when they've never promised us or gave us a schedule are making some pretty bold assumptions here.

They claimed to be done by Feb 2020 for pass 1. If that's the case, having Fighter 4 in November, at their current release rate, seems to be far ahead of finishing in Feb. Having the fighter 5 be in Feb feels far off from what their current schedule has actually been and would seem done only to fit their initial finish by date. That schedule seemed in plan before they were green lit to do more than just this fighters pass which is why it feels the releases have been as rapid as they have been as opposed to being drawn out longer to fill the alleged time frame better.

This release schedule has been quite rapid compared to other fighter games that do the same thing who usually have several months between character releases. Just seems Nintendo was in hyper mode now that more characters had been green lit instead of dragging their feet.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Everyone saying they are "ahead of schedule" when they've never promised us or gave us a schedule are making some pretty bold assumptions here.

They said they'd be done by the end of February. It is kind of an assumption, but considering the speed of releases for Hero, Banjo & Kazooie, and Terry compared to Joker and Piranha Plant it is a reasonable one.

Seeing as how the servers crashed that same day I don’t think they’ll repeat that mistake again lmao

I think most of the smash releases crashed the servers though.

 

[StormC]

January Direct is my guess.

Nintendo really on that 4D chess business. I hope at least we can stop giving C-grade "insiders" too much attention now.

 

[SneakyLink]

The servers will crash regardless of when they release the character. That's just how Nintendo's servers work.

Funny, I don't recall the servers crashing for Plant, Hero or Terry. I was late to Banjo & Kazooie due to a illness and Joker I remember vividly.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Seeing as how the servers crashed that same day I don’t think they’ll repeat that mistake again lmao

That's not why they won't release multiple characters simultaneously. They only did it for Smash 4 because the 3DS was limited in how many patches a game could have.

 

[Hinata]

Funny, I don't recall the servers crashing for Plant, Hero or Terry. I was late to Banjo & Kazooie due to a illness and Joker I remember vividly.

Nintendo's servers are notorious for not being able to handle a lot of people trying to download something at once, though.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm leaving until next direct, feel the thread is going to go square one and repeat discussions again. Feel free to pm or tag me if something interesting happens.

 

[MooMew64]

They claimed to be done by Feb 2020 for pass 1. If that's the case, having Fighter 4 in November, at their current release rate, seems to be far ahead of finishing in Feb. Having the fighter 5 be in Feb feels far off from what their current schedule has actually been and would seem done only to fit their initial finish by date. That schedule seemed in plan before they were green lit to do more than just this fighters pass which is why it feels the releases have been as rapid as they have been as opposed to being drawn out longer to fill the alleged time frame better.

This release schedule has been quite rapid compared to other fighter games that do the same thing who usually have several months between character releases. Just seems Nintendo was in hyper mode now that more characters had been green lit instead of dragging their feet.

Again, what schedule is there to be ahead of, besides fan-made ones?

They'll release them when they want to. Heck, most of the DLC releases have been during release gaps, which January and February do have, but honestly, when has Nintendo ever done things earlier than anticipated? They use terms such as "soon" very loosely and very generously.

I'm not saying January is impossible. But it's a very bold claim to say they're ahead of a schedule we have no idea of when none of us have access to any internal company operations, which would be the only way to actually know a schedule. Patterns are inevitably broken, and we all collectively read too much into everything.

 

[SneakyLink]

Nintendo's servers are notorious for not being able to handle a lot of people trying to download something at once, though.

I still cannot comment on Banjo but I do remember the great shop crash of 2015.

Gave us this wonderful gif:

 

[Nemuresu]

You know, after the sad last night, it really feels nice to see this thread as active as usual.

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

How bout them doomhaybysakosmosgemo boys guys

 

[Guynamednelson]

I still cannot comment on Banjo

There was no eShop crash for Ultimate besides Joker's.

 

[Cadillac]

I had a dream about who FP5 was...
It was Lloyd.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

That's not why they won't release multiple characters simultaneously. They only did it for Smash 4 because the 3DS was limited in how many patches a game could have.

Out of curiosity what’s the maximum amount of patches for a switch game?

 

[Neverx]

Was thinking January, but nah I'mma go with February.

Nintendo hardly ever does anything in January. Only thing they've done of note in January in the past 5 years was a Direct Mini, and that's about as much as I think y'all could hope for at this point. We're probably not seeing FP5 'till mid February.

Disagree, they reveal the switch in January and with fighter 5 coming by or during February and the fact that Animal Crossing comes in March and we don't know that much about the game I think we will see a direct in January this.

 

[Deleted member]

Good morning everyone.

Nothing out of the ordinary, I guess.

 

[Night Gale]

I've been waiting for this s*** to open all goddamn day. New info about Nier. Let's talk about it. Put on your tinfoil hats, ladies and gents. It is time to speculate.

So, Nier series producer and SquareEnix board member Yosuke Saito announced a Christmas Niconico livestream/interview he is hosting featuring Masahiro Sakurai, Nier director Yoko Taro, Square-Enix's Takashi Anzai, PlatinumGames' Hideki Kamiya, and former Square-Enix employee Jin Fujisawa, who's worked on Dragon Quest. It's a gathering of developers born in the 1970s, which reminds me of the recent 1980s celebration in Super Smash Bros. They grew with those games; it is what inspired them.

やります！
今年はまじめにやります！
いや毎年まじめにやってます…
尊敬してやまないクリエーターの半世紀の歴史をアレコレ聞き出そうかなと。お楽しみに！

よーすぴサンタ ～1970年生まれのクリエーターと過ごすクリスマスナイト～ / ニコ生番組(2019/12/24 19:00開始) https://t.co/9D9SNBBl4f

— 齊藤陽介　Yosuke Saito (@SaitoYosuke_Z) December 13, 2019

This may be nothing more than a series of coincidences and circumstantial evidence, but all but 2 of those f***ers in that interview are involved with Nier Automata in some capacity. The exception is Masahiro Sakurai and Jin, who's involved with Dragon Quest. Conversely, every single participant except for Nier's Yoko Taro is involved with Super Smash Bros.

If it amounts to nothing, they still have Masahiro Sakurai cornered. lmao The timing is weird, too. This is the same month that Nier announced its 10th anniversary celebration almost 5 months in advance. Almost all of us are anticipating a Smash announcement this month as well.

Thanks for coming to my Gale talk.

 

[Plank08]

The game awards was boring besides 3 exceptions, hopefully we get a direct this month, Genoslayer is still strong.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

The game awards was boring besides 3 exceptions, hopefully we get a direct this month, Genoslayer is still strong.

Indeed

Question is should we throw away the deconfirm list now?

 

[Plank08]

Indeed

Question is should we throw away the deconfirm list now?

At this point I did, I’m predicting Doomslayer is #5 and I will change all my post pass predictions when 5 is announced

 

[Deleted member]

Indeed

Question is should we throw away the deconfirm list now?

Maybe not at this time. The kil list still seems strong.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Out of curiosity what’s the maximum amount of patches for a switch game?

I think it has to be infinite, just to ensure that crossplay can still be a thing in games like Fortnite and Minecraft.