Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SKX31]

Under 24 Hours now until the Switch officially launches in China (time zone stuff). Some notes:

Daniel Ahmed, the analyst I've been following, confirmed that 200K+ accounts have expressed interest in preordering Chinese Switches, according to his and Niko Partners (the firm he works at)* preliminary research. That's not bad at all, as I commented on previously.

Also, the Chinese Switch commercial is here. I dunno if the tagline is great or not:

​

Because when I see it I can't help but to think "Hey, this tagline would fit the Joker movie distubingly well!"

"Looking cool, Joker! Now, Switch to Smile!"
​

As far as Smash is concerned, how well the Switch fares there might affect 1 or so Post-Pass selections, depending on how many Post-Pass characters there actually will be etc.

Characters whose Smash chances might increase if the Chinese release is successful include - because Furukawa is one of the guys giving the list of prospective candidates to Sakurai:

* Steve
* MOBAs: LoL / Dota 2 primarily in that order.
* Dynasty Warriors
* Rabbids / Rayman in case spirit upgrades are a thing (Rabbids primarily - the Chinese Switch is getting an exclusive Rabbids game partly because Rabbids Invasion was the highest rated Kids TV show there last year. Not kidding. And that's with Rayman Legends also being one of the 50 Switch games officially localized there.),
* Reimu
* Anything Blizzard. Warcraft (especially WoW) primarily, but Overwatch also has a major presence there.
* Dungeon Fighter Online (major league wildcard, owned by South Korean Nexon)
* Phoenix Wright. Even if Ace Attorney isn't officially available in China (AFAIK), hardcore people in China came out to AA's defense when a Shanghai company made an AA ripoff. Also, a Chinese film called Silent Witness got tons of attention from video game fans there: some Chinese fans called for a Chinese AA movie, and quite a lot of fans complained that Silent Witness copied AA too much.
* Story of Seasons. It being the inspiration for Happy Farm: a massive web game in China. FarmVille in turn copied Happy Farm, so Harvest Moon / Story of Seasons could benefit from the link. Also, Doraemon Story of Seasons is one of the Switch games being officially localized there.

(Other characters like Dante are getting mobile games there.)

That's on top of KOF and Undertale having been successful there, and both those are in the game.

*(Niko Partners gives their data on the Asian video game industry primarily to major league companies. Both Tencent and Nintendo are listed as their clients when you scroll down the page, alongside Microsoft, SEGA, Facebook etc.)

 

[Megadoomer]

truer words have never been spoken....

BTW... is dante deconfirmed or not? ( i mean by verge?) I'm not super into him.. but i reckon that his chances are pretty good in teh capcom front.

Still, again my motto, verge with a agrain of salt, sabi with truckloads of it.

Also... as a ridley and simon belmont supporter since brawl reveal, if you really want a character, a deconfirmation is not an excuse to stop supporting a character ! UMU.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78235954

Sabi said that it wasn't Dante, but Vergeben hasn't said anything about him. (or any Capcom character, as a matter of fact) The link above contains all of the characters that, according to Vergeben's source(s), are not the fifth Fighters Pass character. (though, obviously, that doesn't rule them out as post-Fighters-Pass DLC)

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I still personally believe the current update Vergeben posted is once again misinformation.

Still team Doom-Geno all!

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Looks like things have calmed down a lot around here as there haven't been 7 pages since I last checked.

 

[cothero]

So according to Sabi, only seven characters and two companies are deconfirmed so far:

Ryu Hayabusa
Crash Bandicoot
Doomguy
Geno
Dante
Lloyd / A Tales of Rep
Sora
Falcom reps
Nippon Ichi reps

Which brings Scorpion and Gordon back to the run. For the first time, i really hope Verge is wrong and Sabi is right.

 

[Lamperouge]

I'm not ready to completely disregard everything Vergeben says just because a bunch of my most wanted characters are seemingly disconfirmed for Fighter Pack 5. He seems to have had a legitimate mix up with his sources and even gave a pretty reasonable explanation as to how it happened, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that there's still some truth to his claims.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

So according to Sabi, only seven characters and two companies are deconfirmed so far:

Ryu Hayabusa
Crash Bandicoot
Doomguy
Geno
Dante
Lloyd/ A Tales of Rep
Sora
Falcom reps
Nippon Ichi reps

Which brings Scorpion and Gordon back to the run. For the first time, i really hope Verge is wrong and she's right.

If its misinformation that is which I think it is.

After the **** we all went through I can't believe her or Vergeben anymore and what they currently have could be that yet again.

 

[Mango The Magician]

Honestly most the picks that were deconfimed were not really my cup of tea so I don't have an issue believing verge or sabi. For the people that want said characters I feel bad for them but I'd be pretty let down if the pass ended on Gordon or Doomguy or even Sora.

The only thing that upsets me is that the next character is likely another third party and it isn't Crash.

 

[Lamperouge]

Just imagine how miserable this thread would be if we didn't know there were more characters on the way...

 

[Seanapotamus]

Under 24 Hours now until the Switch officially launches in China (time zone stuff). Some notes:

Daniel Ahmed, the analyst I've been following, confirmed that 200K+ accounts have expressed interest in preordering Chinese Switches, according to his and Niko Partners (the firm he works at)* preliminary research. That's not bad at all, as I commented on previously.

Also, the Chinese Switch commercial is here. I dunno if the tagline is great or not:

View attachment 251208​

Because when I see it I can't help but to think "Hey, this tagline would fit the Joker movie distubingly well!"

"Looking cool, Joker! Now, Switch to Smile!"
​

As far as Smash is concerned, how well the Switch fares there might affect 1 or so Post-Pass selections, depending on how many Post-Pass characters there actually will be etc.

Characters whose Smash chances might increase if the Chinese release is successful include - because Furukawa is one of the guys giving the list of prospective candidates to Sakurai:

* Steve
* MOBAs: LoL / Dota 2 primarily in that order.
* Dynasty Warriors
* Rabbids / Rayman in case spirit upgrades are a thing (Rabbids primarily - the Chinese Switch is getting an exclusive Rabbids game partly because Rabbids Invasion was the highest rated Kids TV show there last year. Not kidding. And that's with Rayman Legends also being one of the 50 Switch games officially localized there.),
* Reimu
* Anything Blizzard. Warcraft (especially WoW) primarily, but Overwatch also has a major presence there.
* Dungeon Fighter Online (major league wildcard, owned by South Korean Nexon)
* Phoenix Wright. Even if Ace Attorney isn't officially available in China (AFAIK), hardcore people in China came out to AA's defense when a Shanghai company made an AA ripoff. Also, a Chinese film called Silent Witness got tons of attention from video game fans there: some Chinese fans called for a Chinese AA movie, and quite a lot of fans complained that Silent Witness copied AA too much.
* Story of Seasons. It being the inspiration for Happy Farm: a massive web game in China. FarmVille in turn copied Happy Farm, so Harvest Moon / Story of Seasons could benefit from the link. Also, Doraemon Story of Seasons is one of the Switch games being officially localized there.

(Other characters like Dante are getting mobile games there.)

That's on top of KOF and Undertale having been successful there, and both those are in the game.

*(Niko Partners gives their data on the Asian video game industry primarily to major league companies. Both Tencent and Nintendo are listed as their clients when you scroll down the page, alongside Microsoft, SEGA, Facebook etc.)

I'm glad you've been informing us about what's going on in China in regards to the Switch. It's interesting to see what characters are big in China, and who we could potentially see to attract more people to Smash. It also helps that according to the statistic David Ahmed put out, plenty of people over there have interest in getting a Switch.

 

[cothero]

If its misinformation that is which I think it is.

After the **** we all went through I can't believe her or Vergeben anymore and what they currently have could be that yet again.

TBH, they both look kinda lost and desperate to get on track. Whoever this character is, i think is safe to assume that's a very well-kept secret.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

The thing is, with this whole "20 Questions" garbage, as long as the character revealed isn't one of the NOPEs on the list the mysterious source can just bluff and say they called it, even if it turns out to be Pyjama Sam.

 

[KatKit]

The last time I pointed out that a blunder exactly like this one could happen, people laughed at the idea and made Verge seem infallible.

Anyways, when people bring up the updated deconfirmation list, I ask that Kat gets listed next to Nihon Falcom lol. In hindsight, it's kinda cool to see her excluded among the likes of Ryu Hayabusa, Sakura, and Gordon Freeman and requested companies like Ubisoft. It feels like my girl made an impact (which she did) and was a highly requested Sony rep or something.

But yeah... It's almost the VGAs. I'm not going to bother giving leakers attention anymore. We're probably getting a reveal very soon. I can wait.

 

[Herocin]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wEGdxvE4Tb0 Oh God... Didn’t they have some other poor soul on there last time. Must have been replaced with Marin or whatever the newbies name is. I’d much rather PapaGenos not be there but what can ya do.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

So whose everyone going for the reveal.

Given I don't believe Vergeben and Sabi at this point I'm team Doomsgeno.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

So whose everyone going for the reveal.

Given I don't believe Vergeben and Sabi at this point I'm team Doomsgeno.

Well if I disregard Verge then I'm back to 2B and KOS-MOS. In fact I'm just going to disregard all the leakers and just wait for the TGA.

 

[MooMew64]

So whose everyone going for the reveal.

Given I don't believe Vergeben and Sabi at this point I'm team Doomsgeno.

Gooigi time.

Also waiting for that sweet, sweet Awesome Baby College Hoops content.

 

[GoodGrief741]

OH MY GOD THIS IS SAKURAI'S ACCOUNT INNIT OH GOD OH ****

I can verify that it is. I told him what I was doing and he thought it sounded like fun.

By the by, he told me about some Jino guy who has the biggest thread here, and he wants to reward then for their loyalty, so look forward to the Jino Mii Costume, free with the purchase of the second Pass!

 

[Lighteni]

Given I don't believe Vergeben at this point

Will say that that’s pretty ironic given how many times you said before that you were bored and waiting for Vergeben-sama to leak something.

 

[Herocin]

So whose everyone going for the reveal.

Given I don't believe Vergeben and Sabi at this point I'm team Doomsgeno.

I’m probably not gonna back anyone. For all we know all leaks could be fake which is a possibility considering all the things that have happened with Verge and Sabi and the mii leak. And I don’t really like the ideas of teams. We are not playing sports so I don’t really think Team “Insert Character Name Here” is appropriate terminology. That’s just an unpopular nitpick on my end though nothing more

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Will say that that’s pretty ironic given how many times you said before that you were bored and waiting for Vergben-sama to leak something.

Given everything's that happened and it being possible misinformation. For the first time this is one case where I think he might not be right.

He's also been wrong a few times such as an Square rep being our first Pass DLC fighter and Minecraft content.

 

[Seanapotamus]

So whose everyone going for the reveal.

Given I don't believe Vergeben and Sabi at this point I'm team Doomsgeno.

I was going for Kratos yesterday, but after Verge's post last night, it's hard to say. I guess we'll have to see come reveal time. I'm still on Team Verge here considering that he's been spot on in Smash info even if he piggybacks. I've said this a few times here, but I believe this next character is someone who is a well-kept secret, so I guess we'll see what happens.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

At this point we’ve got like 4 whole days until the actual event and, I would assume, character reveal.

From what I have read, Verg is going to look into Capcom, mainly to see what his source says about Dante and Naz’s post the other day.

At this point I’m just going to put it out there that Verge has more going for his Smash record than Sabi has for his. Leaks happen, and while we obviously haven’t had an incident like this happen, it’s worth exploring the possibilities if these rumors are true or if they’re not.

For now, it seems like this stuff is going to continue. If you’re sick of the leaker drama, then I’d argue it’s probably better to stay away. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if we make it to Thursday with no one character pointed out. It’ll make the reveal that much cooler, but I still am not against actually knowing who’s coming.

 

[zeldasmash]

So whose everyone going for the reveal.

Given I don't believe Vergeben and Sabi at this point I'm team Doomsgeno.

Either Dante, Master Chief or Kratos.

Dante being the likeliest of the three. And yeah, I don't care if Sabi said he's out. Considering the cat and mouse game Sabi's playing alongside Verge, listening to them it's like trying to listen to a kid who yells all the time: It hurts your ears and does no one any favors.

 

[CureParfait]

So whose everyone going for the reveal.

Given I don't believe Vergeben and Sabi at this point I'm team Doomsgeno.

If I disregard Vergeben then I am Team Reimu and possible Spirit/Pokeball/Assist Trophy upgrades

 

[MooMew64]

Real talk, I'm feeling Phoenix Wright. Also thinking Kiryu might have a shot.

 

[Lamperouge]

So whose everyone going for the reveal.

Given I don't believe Vergeben and Sabi at this point I'm team Doomsgeno.

It's lawyer time.

 

[Flyboy]

Real talk, I'm feeling Phoenix Wright. Also thinking Kiryu might have a shot.

This is where I'm leaning too, with Sora, 2B, and Geralt as outside shots.

Phoenix and 2B are my picks but any choice on that list will make me happy (though for Geralt it'll be for a somewhat unconventional reason).

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

I wouldn't be surprise if the "leakers" go as far to hack Nintendo japan/Bamco Namco to show FP5 to prove that they know something.

 

[TwiceEXE]

I wouldn't be surprise if the "leakers" go as far to hack Nintendo japan/Bamco Namco to show FP5 to prove that they know something.

This isn't a movie from the 90s. You don't just hack the planet like that.

 

[Lighteni]

I wouldn't be surprise if the "leakers" go as far to hack Nintendo japan/Bamco Namco to show FP5 to prove that they know something.

Vergeben is clearly just waiting to deploy his ‘hacksmashbros.exe’ program.

 

[SKX31]

So whose everyone going for the reveal.

Given I don't believe Vergeben and Sabi at this point I'm team Doomsgeno.

If Verge and / or Sabi are right, I'm gunning for Maxwell or Kratos.

If not, I'm sticking with Heihachi or KOS-MOS as my personal most likely picks. Phoenix as second.

I'm glad you've been informing us about what's going on in China in regards to the Switch. It's interesting to see what characters are big in China, and who we could potentially see to attract more people to Smash. It also helps that according to the statistic David Ahmed put out, plenty of people over there have interest in getting a Switch.

You're welcome!

Personally I'm very interested in China because it could be something of a major event for Nintendo overall. I'm pretty sure Ninty's safe from any possible overt pushes from Tencent because Nintendo would never be interested in becoming a subsidiary. The release signals that the Big N has bigger plans to expand.

I'm also kinda surprised (but also not) that the official Switch is getting so much attention. On one hand, there are a lot of grey market (international) Switches over there, so the Switch isn't super new. However, there's the promise of way better online with the official version and the fact that the official version can run grey market cartridges (also, it likely being easily hackable since censorship is a thing). Also, the official version works for people who don't want to wade into the grey market (which is to say a lot of people).

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

I wouldn't be surprise if the "leakers" go as far to hack Nintendo japan/Bamco Namco to show FP5 to prove that they know something.

Vergeben is the Hackerman.

 

[Calamitas]

I don't really wanna hone in on any specific final prediction, but I will say this: I think it's very likely that the update with/reveal of FP5 is going to contain a character with a primarily red/white colour scheme, with maybe some black in there. Even if it isn't the actual character itself, mind you.
This may sound vague, but it covers a lot more of my wanted characters than it honestly should.

 

[ProudNintendofan]

If Kratos gets in, there's no reason Scorpion can't get in.

 

[MooMew64]

I'm probably backin' out of here come tomorrow morning. I'm mainly stickin' around out of curiosity to see if Verge or Sabi will drop a name, but assuming we go all throughout today and tomorrow morning without anything, I'm fine to just wait it out: We're gonna be so close to TGA anyways that I might as well wait and see at that point.

Honestly, though? Kinda hoping they don't drop a name: Joker's reveal was magical, and I would love to see us get blindsided by a Smash character again.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

If Kratos gets in, there's no reason Scorpion can't get in.

Mortal Kombat's banned in Japan.

 

[Deleted member]

Doomsgeno.

That leak's more fake than yesterday's list.

 

[Opossum]

Given everything's that happened and it being possible misinformation. For the first time this is one case where I think he might not be right.

He's also been wrong a few times such as an Square rep being our first Pass DLC fighter and Minecraft content.

I think you're really blowing what happened out of proportion. What happened was a clear cut case of miscommunication with his source. Why does promptly correcting a mistake make him suddenly unreliable?

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

I don't really wanna hone in on any specific final prediction, but I will say this: I think it's very likely that the update with/reveal of FP5 is going to contain a character with a primarily red/white colour scheme, with maybe some black in there. Even if it isn't the actual character itself, mind you.
This may sound vague, but it covers a lot more of my wanted characters than it honestly should.

My own gut feeling is that the character is very Sci-Fi.