Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SKX31]

I figured Touhou was still pretty popular in China, so that certainly doesn't hurt her chances! Are there other characters you'd consider "frontrunners" in the Chinese community which you don't see get much attention here?

China's very much shaped by the console ban which lasted 15 years (2000 - 2015). That's partly why the big ones are either arcade (like KOF, KOF 97 is pretty much worshipped by its faithful there), on the computer (Steam - which includes indies like Touhou and Undertale, Blizzard, MOBAs. Even FPS games like Crossfire) or mobile. I'm discounting mobile games until Dragalia Lost or any other mobile title makes it through. One exception AFAIK is Dynasty Warriors, and from what I can tell its partly due to computer-friendly mods and partly because of the source material.

Edit: It's difficult to rank frontrunners, because there are too many factors. If I had to guess: Overwatch, LoL, Touhou, DW, WoW, etc. Very roughly in that order, I kinda feel like they have similar chances as each other. Then there are wildcards like Frisk or Dota 2.

There are a lot of Chinese favorites that could make it through.

So... which company better screams "I am inevitable" in your opinion? Disney or Tencent?

Hm, maybe not FP5, but what about future DLC? Odyssey and Let's Go were already released games, and no new content was shown first there (AFAIK). So what are the chances of a future reveal being made in a chinese event, in your opinion? It would be completely new, upcoming content appearing first at... ChinaJoy, or whatever other big events are there. Is it theoretically possible?

For the first question. *Shudder* That's not an easy one. Both of them are IMO too powerful really, so it feels like a cointoss. Leaning towards Tencent being scarier, but only because it lacks competition. (Seriously, the gulf between Tencent and its closest Chinese competitor, NetEase, is enourmous.)

Future DLC seems more likely, yes. As for the chances of a big reveal at a Chinese event... maybe? It feels like a wildcard thing. It all depends on Sakurai actually agreeing on that. Another thing that trips me up is that Nintendo reveals on its own accord. There's no precendent for revealing at another game's event, although we can't completely rule out the possibility.

ChinaJoy is by far the safest bet. Maaybe the 2020 LoL World Championship (of course, in China)? The reveals we've had are TGA, E3 and Nintendo's own Direct, after all.

 

[cj.]

I'm liking everybody who wants Bomberman upgraded from AT hell

Me too!!

 

[Deleted member]

That is true, and on top of that verge even addressed the fact that I was avoiding outright saying his name before, “it’s okay Sabi, I’ll say it”. At this rate, somebody’s going to be in so much denial that they’ll ask for DMs from verge where he literally addressed me as a source for terry. Ive never seen somebody accuse me of “piggybacking” verge when he literally said the ryu thing 4 days after me just a few weeks ago lol. It’s almost like we share stuff and have been open about it.

Look I'm just going to say it straight. The reason we're thinking this way and missing details is because you're a headache to follow when it comes to Smash.

Your Twitter is pretty much useless for our purposes given the c&d and any info is locked behind your discord of thousand members clogging up the backlog. Sharing info between Verge isn't verifiable when we can't see the info, and no **** the Smash fanbase only wants to hear whether a character is in or not, and we're going to take any word from you as something unless you say otherwise.

We ignore Vergeben most of the time because he's a similar headache, only he actually straight up says the characters instead of hinting or deleting messages on the discord.

Yeah we're miffed and I'm not afraid to sound entitled and thankless because I am thankless. A lot of the teasing and hinting from your messages are pretty hectic and unproductive when we want straight answers. No speculation or nothing.

 

[Deleted member]

You should ask vergeben yourself. The reason he literally said “don’t worry Sabi I’ll tell them” is because I was one of the people who literally told him. Do I need to post DMs now? Lol. I literally said I promised my source I wouldn’t leak him myself so I wanted verge to go public first.

And you can’t ignore the fact verge said fighter 5 isn’t ryu nearly 5 days after me. That’s because we literally work together. Regarding the c&d, that’s why my bud nanakarobi leaks most of the Nintendo stuff for me like the entire nindies direct. I generally haven’t posted a lot of Nintendo myself, and allowed him to post most of it. Otherwise I just say in discord. But yeah, if somebody ever thought I was piggybacking verge, just asking him yourself lol. @Rummy @Nazyrus can back me up on basically all of this. So can Papagenos.

I trust you when you say that you're sharing info with him, and I have no reason to believe nor did I ever claim that you piggyback off of him.
Again, the main gripe most if us have is that you only tease things you know or give "maybes" on things that are unconfirmed, which leaves us antsy for more info or a more direct confirmation.

 

[Plank08]

I love art of other characters In the mural style, I wish more people would make stuff like that, like the Bomberman and Club Penguin ones
Basically what I’m saying is make a Sackboy one

 

[PolarPanda]

I trust you when you say that you're sharing info with him, and I have no reason to believe nor did I ever claim that you piggyback off of him.
Again, the main gripe most if us have is that you only tease things you know or give "maybes" on things that are unconfirmed, which leaves us antsy for more info or a more direct confirmation.

That makes sense. Regarding the mii leak, I have a million people asking me. So I decided to ask the person who knows fighter 5. He only knew of a fighter, not specific miis. So he said he would ask somebody. A random message he sent me last night was just “as expected, sounds like it may have been faked”. I’m asking for clarification on WHY he said that, but given he was asking somebody specifically about it, I assumed he got a reply about it. That’s the point of me saying I’m waiting on more clarification. It doesn’t seem that many specifically know about miis, so he’s had to ask about these particular ones specifically. Really just wanna keep people up to date. Sorry for any confusion, haha. That’s also why I said in Papagenos server that if his message isn’t actually about him receiving details on this, I’ll be open about that when he messages me next

 

[Curious Villager]

That makes sense. Regarding the mii leak, I have a million people asking me. So I decided to ask the person who knows fighter 5. He only knew of a fighter, not specific miis. So he said he would ask somebody. A random message he sent me last night was just “as expected, sounds like it may have been faked”. I’m asking for clarification on WHY he said that, but given he was asking somebody specifically about it, I assumed he got a reply about it. That’s the point of me saying I’m waiting on more clarification. It doesn’t seem that many specifically know about miis, so he’s had to ask about these particular ones specifically. Really just wanna keep people up to date. Sorry for any confusion, haha. That’s also why I said in Papagenos server that if his message isn’t actually about him receiving details on this, I’ll be open about that when he messages me next

So would the source know if whether or not fighter 5 is at all related to the mii's in question?
From the sound of it, I'm assuming that's a no?

 

[3BitSaurus]

Future DLC seems more likely, yes. As for the chances of a big reveal at a Chinese event... maybe? It feels like a wildcard thing. It all depends on Sakurai actually agreeing on that. Another thing that trips me up is that Nintendo reveals on its own accord. There's no precendent for revealing at another game's event, although we can't completely rule out the possibility.

ChinaJoy is by far the safest bet. Maaybe the 2020 LoL World Championship (of course, in China)? The reveals we've had are TGA, E3 and Nintendo's own Direct, after all.

Yeeeah, that's true. The only problem is that they would need to redirect their audience from other regions to whatever that event is somehow (hence my tinfoil hat Worlds theory I mentioned in the LoL thread).

 

[Troykv]

I'm terrified of China and Tencent doing stuff... Or China in general...

I just hope this doesn't compromise the entire world.

 

[Icedragonadam]

So would the source know if whether or not fighter 5 is at all related to the mii's in question?
From the sound of it, I'm assuming that's a no?

I'd like to know too, considering a notable veteran company is missing for Mii costumes.

 

[PolarPanda]

So would the source know if whether or not fighter 5 is at all related to the mii's in question?
From the sound of it, I'm assuming that's a no?

I have to go for like an hour and a half, but I have a lot I can say on this subject when I’m back

 

[ES. Dinah]

I have to go for like an hour and a half, but I have a lot I can say on this subject when I’m back

I'll believe you if you say it is Namco or rather I feel like Sakurai alluded to that.

 

[Gamma Ray]

I have to go for like an hour and a half, but I have a lot I can say on this subject when I’m back

I'd also be interested in non-specific stuff like if the fighter is male or female (and I'm sure Lesley would be anxious to know too) and whether or not you know if there's post-pass information to be announced at the game awards too. Though if you do have such information I imagine you can't give too many hints or tell too much.

 

[KillerCage]

Well, with the recent evidence towards Doomguy and Ryu Hayubasa (among others), I wonder if that old Google theory still holds up after all and we might get Artorius sometime down the line. The theory was discredited back when Hero was announced, but that was before we knew that there would be more than just the 5 characters in the fighter pass. I don't know if anyone tested the name "Hero" instead of Erdrick back then, or Terry, either which can prove it false.

In my mind, Google Theory wasn't killed by Hero; it was killed by Terry.
From what I recall, no one was testing out "Hero" in the European Google Search Engine since it was considered too generic to be a character name.

Sabi's comments:

Spoiler: first

View attachment 245809

Spoiler: second

View attachment 245810

This just feels like another "I don't know" to me

{SIGN} why do I bother.

 

[Calamitas]

I'd also be interested in non-specific stuff like if the fighter is male or female (and I'm sure Lesley would be anxious to know too) and whether or not you know if there's post-pass information to be announced at the game awards too. Though if you do have such information I imagine you can't give too many hints or tell too much.

I'd honestly also be interested if there's any chance of #5 being first-party.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

So let's go over what the current speculation is.

1. Ryu Hiabusa has a few people claiming he's been in discussion but he won't be no. 5
2. Apparent Footage of Doom and SMRPG hats fuel speculation of Doom Guy and Geno, either one could be number 5.
3. A couple of references to Pac-Man being THE Namco character along with Lloyd and Hehatchi's Mii costumes being abest, even after a fellow Fighting game Alumnus has been added, have some speculating it could be either of them or another Namco Character.
3.5. KOS-MOS has been speculated in particular.
4. A song list or Tohou has been making the rounds which could point at any of them but most likely Reimu.

I think that's everything. Did I miss any?

 

[andree123]

Did I miss any?

Sabi knows about the fighter in challenger pack 5.

 

[Plank08]

Yeah I just can’t see the Mii costumes being fake, the amount of work they would have to do for a leak that people aren’t guaranteed to see is absurd, I mean come on guys, your telling me they:
Somehow modded Mii costumes
Made completely original Models for theMii costumes
Gave Mallow jiggle Physics which would be near impossible
Modded the Timer so it stays at 2:30 like the Ken video
Modded the Camera
Modded the whale out of the stage(is that even possible?)
And made all of them taunt at the same time
Yeah no way this is fake

 

[andree123]

Can someone make a picture of Pichu, Ivysaur, and Ken taunting at the same time?

 

[SKX31]

I'm terrified of China and Tencent doing stuff... Or China in general...

I just hope this doesn't compromise the entire world.

I do agree on that, I should re-emphasize a couple of things:

* For Nintendo, it's pretty much what NonSpecificGuy has stated. Either you go through the Orwellian government's hoops, or you miss out on loads of money period. From what I've seen, Furukawa (Nintendo's President) doesn't seem keen on Tencent either - he's stated that they needed someone who could help them get through the hoops (The Chinese government requires that a Chinese company helps out if you wanna release something there).

* Tencent are not invurnerable. They entered the partnership with Nintendo in a weak state, not kidding there. First, Arena of Valor (their mobile LoL rip off) got hit by a massive addiction-related scandal (with that game even being called "poison"). And then, the government restructured itself and blocked any new video game releases and monetization in China. They literally couldn't earn money from PUBG nor Fortnite for months. That's what helped lead Tencent to the negotiating table. From what I've seen, the collaboration and deal gave Nintendo loads of room - Nintendo's been much more in front, what with their games still being front and center.

* A lot of Chinese people (if not most Chinese who play video games) don't like Tencent either. Not just because of their ties to the government (and peoples' fear / distrust of censorship). Knock-offs and P2W games are huge reasons why - the Switch announcement was met with a lot of Chinese scratching their heads, asking "Why Tencent?". Really, most of the positive things have been on Nintendo's end. Sure, Tencent's going to provide their games, but most of the attention has been on Nintendo.

I'm pretty sure it won't compromise the world, thankfully. Still, I do agree that Tencent's terrifying. But Nintendo chose this path, so we're gonna have to aknowledge that and see where it leads.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Yeah I just can’t see the Mii costumes being fake, the amount of work they would have to do for a leak that people aren’t guaranteed to see is absurd, I mean come on guys, your telling me they:
Somehow modded Mii costumes
Made completely original Models for theMii costumes
Gave Mallow jiggle Physics which would be near impossible
Modded the Timer so it stays at 2:30 like the Ken video
Modded the Camera
Modded the whale out of the stage(is that even possible?)
And made all of them taunt at the same time
Yeah no way this is fake

https://www.reddit.com/r/copypasta/comments/9tc5jt/grinch_leak_if_this_leak_is_fake/

We've all seen this before, HYPE RESPONSIBLY!

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Yeah I just can’t see the Mii costumes being fake, the amount of work they would have to do for a leak that people aren’t guaranteed to see is absurd, I mean come on guys, your telling me they:
Somehow modded Mii costumes
Made completely original Models for theMii costumes
Gave Mallow jiggle Physics which would be near impossible
Modded the Timer so it stays at 2:30 like the Ken video
Modded the Camera
Modded the whale out of the stage(is that even possible?)
And made all of them taunt at the same time
Yeah no way this is fake

Either the leak is real or some godlike modder is being an asshole.

 

[Fenriraga]

I dunno where I'm at on the Mii Costume leak, honestly. I'm completely 50/50 on it. Guess we just need to wait for the next fighter reveal.

I feel like we'll get them teased at the Game Awards. I get that Japan gives no craps about the VGAs, but the timing is still just too perfect if we're still set to have the final character by February.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Sabi knows about the fighter in challenger pack 5.

So the sum of all we (think) we know

Character 5 won't be Ryu Hyabusa but he may come later.
If the hats are real, Doom Guy will be a character and Geno will return either as a costume or with a promotion
Namco could bring in another Fighter
I dread to think what bullet heck would look like in Smash Bros.

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah I just can’t see the Mii costumes being fake, the amount of work they would have to do for a leak that people aren’t guaranteed to see is absurd, I mean come on guys, your telling me they:
Somehow modded Mii costumes
Made completely original Models for theMii costumes
Gave Mallow jiggle Physics which would be near impossible
Modded the Timer so it stays at 2:30 like the Ken video
Modded the Camera
Modded the whale out of the stage(is that even possible?)
And made all of them taunt at the same time
Yeah no way this is fake

It's been proven individually that most of this can be done with good modding skills. I still find it hard to believe someone would go out of their way to make something like this with everything you said in mind, but it's not impossible.

I'm also not sure on the jiggle physics. Could be a bug or could be a nice attention to detail. Either way, it's hard for me to make out if it even exists.

 

[JustMyself13]

Yeah I just can’t see the Mii costumes being fake, the amount of work they would have to do for a leak that people aren’t guaranteed to see is absurd, I mean come on guys, your telling me they:
Somehow modded Mii costumes
Made completely original Models for theMii costumes
Gave Mallow jiggle Physics which would be near impossible
Modded the Timer so it stays at 2:30 like the Ken video
Modded the Camera
Modded the whale out of the stage(is that even possible?)
And made all of them taunt at the same time
Yeah no way this is fake

This argument was used for the Grinch leak and look at where that ended up. Until we have more concrete evidence than “it’s too hard” or “it’s possible to make it,” than it wouldn’t be wise to pass judgement. I think too many people are also under the assumption that only one person was behind this when it could have easily been a team effort, that is if it was faked.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Sabi knows about the fighter in challenger pack 5.

Maybe I skimmed past it but hasn't she said she isn't sure? She JUST posted in this thread

 

[Deleted member]

Maybe I skimmed past it but hasn't she said she isn't sure? She JUST posted in this thread

She said one of her sources know who they are.

 

[JustMyself13]

She said one of her sources know who they are.

To be fair, that doesn’t mean Sabi’s been told who it is.

 

[GoodGrief741]

All I'm getting from this is that Sabi says her source knows FP5. Care to share? Otherwise, I honestly don't see the point of a leaker who doesn't leak.

 

[Deleted member]

To be fair, that doesn’t mean Sabi’s been told who it is.

Wasn't saying that. Was just telling Gwen the facts. Whether Sabi says she knows is up to her to say.

 

[JustMyself13]

All I'm getting from this is that Sabi says her source knows FP5. Care to share? Otherwise, I honestly don't see the point of a leaker who doesn't leak.

To maintain relevancy and ensure attention, as even a wishy-washy answer causes discussion here so it’s been working

 

[Polan]

This argument was used for the Grinch leak and look at where that ended up. Until we have more concrete evidence than “it’s too hard” or “it’s possible to make it,” than it wouldn’t be wise to pass judgement. I think too many people are also under the assumption that only one person was behind this when it could have easily been a team effort, that is if it was faked.

grinch leak was a blurry picture that no one had any business believing in, specially with sakurai's comments on the number of newcomers. this has actual footage attached to it which is way more than any other leak has had.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Whoever FP5 is they sure as **** won't have supers on wakeup

#SSBU_TERRY ⚠️**WARNING**⚠️
If Terry with his Supers ready is hanging at ledge, he can buffer Buster Wolf and Power Geyser to come out IMMEDIATELY after neutral get up; both of which will armor through counterattacks and grabs! pic.twitter.com/UDF7t6Wffs

— Fiend's Fantazio (@SonicfiendFGC) November 8, 2019

 

[GoodGrief741]

To maintain relevancy and ensure attention, as even a wishy-washy answer causes discussion here so it’s been working

If what you guys want is to discuss the ramblings of someone with dubious credibility look no further.

Fighter #5 will be released before February and has either blue or green in his design. One of my sources insists on blue, and they've been the most reliable, but two other independent sources claim it's green instead. It's possible that both are right, or that the character has cyan in their design instead.

 

[SlickWylde]

https://www.reddit.com/r/copypasta/comments/9tc5jt/grinch_leak_if_this_leak_is_fake/

We've all seen this before, HYPE RESPONSIBLY!

Yep, I remember constantly reading many comments basically calling anyone who didn't believe the Grinch leaks stupid. People were VERY convinced it was real. I also now see a lot of people saying stuff like "Yeah well if people paid attention to x they would have seen that it was fake" - well, hindsight is 20/20. Usually if something is being called out as fake by people in the industry, it's probably fake.
No harm in casually believing it's true, but like Ice Dragon says, be aware that great fakes have appeared before.
That said, Doomguy would blow my mind!

 

[Deleted member]

Whoever FP5 is they sure as **** won't have supers on wakeup

#SSBU_TERRY ⚠️**WARNING**⚠️
If Terry with his Supers ready is hanging at ledge, he can buffer Buster Wolf and Power Geyser to come out IMMEDIATELY after neutral get up; both of which will armor through counterattacks and grabs! pic.twitter.com/UDF7t6Wffs

— Fiend's Fantazio (@SonicfiendFGC) November 8, 2019

You're not a real Smash player if you don't wakeup kamikazee or wakeup golden wing.

 

[N3ON]

PolarPanda
Listen Sabi, regarding this tweet:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

If you truly know fighter 5, can you either just leak them now/soon, or just not say anything at all? It's one thing to leak something a month out from possibly getting the reveal, but if you're gonna wait on VR Plant, that's gonna be what, a day, maybe two before the actual reveal? At that point, why not just let people have the surprise?

 

[Deleted member]

You're not a real Smash player if you don't wakeup kamikazee or wakeup golden wing.

Wakeup DP transcends every fighting game

 

[Dark Bagel]

Yeah I just can’t see the Mii costumes being fake, the amount of work they would have to do for a leak that people aren’t guaranteed to see is absurd, I mean come on guys, your telling me they:
Somehow modded Mii costumes
Made completely original Models for theMii costumes
Gave Mallow jiggle Physics which would be near impossible
Modded the Timer so it stays at 2:30 like the Ken video
Modded the Camera
Modded the whale out of the stage(is that even possible?)
And made all of them taunt at the same time
Yeah no way this is fake

NEVER underestimate the insane lengths one person or a small group will go to deceive the Smash community. The Grinch leak is a prime example of such.