Newbie 24 - SMT: Devil Survivor LAW IS VICTORIOUS #1 CHAOS LOSES AHAHAHAH

[Raziek]

I'm going to TRY to get to this tonight, I'm busy with an assignment and wrapping up preparations for my Golden Sun set-up.

I'd prefer Turaz over Xiroey personally, as I think Xiroey is much more a shot in the dark.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Xiroey has requested replacement. I'll try and find someone else soon.

 

[pawndidater2]

Well then.

 

[pawndidater2]

So, if Xiroey isn't here anymore, and we were waiting on him... what now? We need to do something. We haven't made any progress in... two days? Three?

 

[ranmaru]

If no one is doing anything you try to stand up and do something for the rest of the town yourself. Try to be pro-active, instead of reactive.

But you don't have to worry about that. I have a direction but I'll give it later as I'm here at school doing a writing assignment.

 

[ranmaru]

Unvote vote: Kantrip

Vote: Gaga

@Ran: I don't have too much to share atm tbh, since I haven't had a chance to make any significant reads on anyone just yet.

I am interested in why you told Gaga this though:


As a town member, why would you be sharing info with Gaga in secret, when he could very well be Mafia?

On the surface, this seems like it could be a good observation from a newbie. Yet, it's not really thought out. It seems more like he picked something to show that seems suspicious, instead of really looking into someone suspicious. The reason I find it to be this way is because I said "I'll tell you later" and did tell him, in the thread. Yet I asked him why he thought we would be communicating in private, and he never really got around to that. Anyways, if he has been reading closely enough, he would have seen that I did tell him, and was even asking him about why he didn't follow up his question to me.

Xiroey wasn't paying enough attention, therefore he wasn't really looking for mafia. He was trying to seem like town. Sure it could also be a weird observation from a newbie, yet it is consistent with the rest of his play.

Lol, that's actually against the rules. We can't talk privately with anyone here, unless we somehow have the power too. (Which only mafia and town masons or other roles can)

I meant later as in, in the thread. I told him in my #95

I explain to him here, that it is against the rules.

@Ran: I was curious to see if he'd respond to the vote or not. (And how)

He's already had several people voting for him so far, and so far he still hasn't reacted to Turazroks vote for him a few posts back.

Just something to help me come up with some more substancial reads.

Yet, he never really replies to my explanation, nor does it clear up his theory that he came up with. This shows he doesn't care to clear up the misunderstanding he had. I would feel a Newb townie would be a bit more tunnelly with their misplaced suspicions, yet with good intentions. He doesn't have that drive, he's just sitting there voting GaGa for a reaction.

@Rake: I'm not sure if I can name anything specific, since actions can be judged either way based on context and their accomplishments.

I'm looking for something that doesn't add up. Maybe a post that comes off as a town post, but would better benifit mafia in the long run. I haven't found anything substantial yet, but I do have some theories.

He says he is looking for something that doesn't add up. Yet, he isn't trying enough (or even caring to post to others that he doesn't have the time) to be looking for something. He isn't, he's just saying that.

Pawn seems pretty defensive in his posts. It's suspicious, but I believe it might also attribute to him being unsure of how to respond, due to his actions being analyzed more closely than others. His original posts were honest and nonchalant. When that started to draw suspicion he became more reactive/defensive.

He seems nervous, but whether it's a case of nervous townie not sure how to respond under pressure, or guilty mafia is unclear. I'd like to make a more solid conclusion about it myself, but right now it's too early to tell.

Looked at both of the underlined. His stance is very wishy washy, he's commenting on Pawn only to comment. There was a split consensus on Pawn, some thought he was suspicious, others didn't. It would be safest for him to say "It's either or, hard to say really".

Gaga originally drew my suspicion because of Ranmaru's post (which I questioned above). If he turned out to be Mafia then that would mean that I'd also have a second suspect (Ranmaru). It wasn't much to go off of, since, like Ran said, private chating with other townies is against the rules. But, if I could maybe get either one of them to slip up and maybe give me some solid evidence, We'd have our second most-likely culprit already found. The chances were small, but it was just too good a chance to pass up.

I'd like to hang back more and read a more responses. Maybe something else will pop up that catches my eye. That way, maybe my first random vote won't be quite so random (A little backing is better than no backing).

That's all I have for now.

Here he mentions it wasn't much to go off of for GaGa, but this feels more like he was trying to clean up a mess he left lay on the sink over night. Meaning, he never really stated this when I initially explained to him that wouldn't be the case. He never said anything like "Oh, ok now I understand" or to that effect. He just answered my question and that was it. I don't feel he really came to an 'understanding' and would rather try to make false connections.

By the way, question:

@Mari777: We haven't heard much from you lately. What do you think on the bandwagon on pawn so far? Do you think he's guilty or just nervous?

(Wow, I suddenly feel like a detective)

I feel this is thrown in to seem useful. Null by itself by it shows he's trying to seem townie, but you can't just read someone as townie from ONE post, you have to look at the entire play. And his, was faltering.

*EBWOP <-- Is this required every time?

Oh, also

Unvote vote: GaGa

Also, here he votes GaGa again I assume with 'hoping for a reaction' since the last time. If GaGa didn't react, why didn't he say anything else about it? It doesn't seem passionate enough.

Ugh... Sorry Ran. I accidentally hit backspace and deleted my entire post

Give me a few minutes to send Richard his Birthday present before his router gets shut off for the night, and I'll have it back up shortly.

Ok, yeah I noticed him sending a present to Richard and saying his post got lost... Yet he never tried even responding to me in small spurts. Things like that have happened to me and I had to try to re-post even if in smaller posts since I'm angry and not wanting to re-do it all... But I had a drive to do so, he did not. I don't think he really had a reason to post, meaning I don't think he was looking for mafia.

Gracious... trying to keep up with this debate between Ran and Rake is giving me one heck of a headache. It reminds me of a court case between a pair of seasoned lawyers, arguments and counter arguments flying this way in that, fact and fiction tangling together in a messy heap.

I appologize for the inactivity, and if I have been holding up the thread by being away.
I should have a considerable amount of free time tomorrow afternoon, so I will write a post adressing each of the questions you all have asked me then.

Here he comments on the debate between me and Rake. It seems like an empty comment to seem like he is present in thread. It seems like he is saying this to seem caught up, when he doesn't even say what he THINKS about it.

He mentions he'd have time to post in the afternoon, views (and is most likely still posting around SWF) around SWF, yet doesn't even come in. Now he replaces out privately, doesn't even have the nerve to explain why he had to replace. Now I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say there may have been an issue, therefore making the replace out NULL, but I still find it odd he didn't really explain to US why he had to.

In conclusion, he picks at me wondering why I'd say "I'll tell you later" to another player in thread, as if thinking we'd all have private communication or something. It just seemed like a weird thing to pick up, when I even TELL GaGa the reason for doing so in thread. This shows Xiroey hasn't been paying attention to the thread at all, meaning he wasn't looking for mafia. He was trying to implicate to players for something weird, to seem like he was doing 'detective work', yet never steps back when explained to him (only does so later on instead of initially, this is not genuine, seems more calculative) He makes a big post giving wishy washy stances, poking at an inactive to seem town, and voting GaGa again without really explaining why his vote stayed on GaGa. He gives excuses for his absense later on in thread, yet gives empty comments to 'show' that he has been reading, when he really doesn't ever deliver.

Unvote Vote: Xiroey

This is the lynch today. Kantrip, you're with me right?

 

[pawndidater2]

Yeah, I would, but I really don't know where to go. I thought we would be lynching Tuz, but then you started making moves on Rake...I just feel like we're losing sight if an almost guaranteed scum-lynch.

 

[ranmaru]

Read my previous post (as I assume you just posted that and my post ninja'ing you ) and tell me what you think of it.

 

[pawndidater2]

I'll get to it, my phone HATES this text box.

 

[Kantrip]

"Xiroey wasn't paying enough attention, therefore he wasn't really looking for mafia"

Considering he is replacing out, I think this statement is a huge stretch.

Gonna look over your case more closely but I'm worried the whole thing might be. I would hate that to be the case because it would mean a scummy connection between you and Turaz, Ran. I hope you're not trying to save your partner's butt....

 

[Kantrip]

Yeah, I would, but I really don't know where to go. I thought we would be lynching Tuz, but then you started making moves on Rake...I just feel like we're losing sight if an almost guaranteed scum-lynch.

You think Turaz is an almost-guaranteed scum lynch?

You're allowed to push for that too. If you see people losing sight of the "right" thing to do (from your perspective), show them why they should keep on the track they're on.

What do you think of Ranmaru's case on Xiroey?

 

[ranmaru]

"Xiroey wasn't paying enough attention, therefore he wasn't really looking for mafia"

Considering he is replacing out, I think this statement is a huge stretch.

Gonna look over your case more closely but I'm worried the whole thing might be. I would hate that to be the case because it would mean a scummy connection between you and Turaz, Ran. I hope you're not trying to save your partner's butt....

I wonder why he viewed right after I posted the case. Hmm.

Tell me your thoughts on the rest of the case.

 

[Kantrip]

I don't like Ranmaru anymore.

Initially he seemed very on-board with my scum read on Turaz. When it gathered steam, however, he tried to:

1. Redirect that pressure onto Rake. This worked pretty well, but ultimately fell through when players like Raziek and I shut down the idea of lynch Rake toDay. Rather than go back to Turaz at this point, he

2. Suddenly switches to Xiroey. He has some points for him, makes a case, and is trying desperately to get people on-board (asking me if I'm with him). The case is honestly stretching on a lot of points and he's making it on a player who has requested replacement and clearly hasn't been very invested in the game. FURTHERMORE, we won't get anything out of Xiroey flipping town. Turaz is the better lynch in all respects, but the reason Ranmaru has been trying SO DESPERATELY to switch onto literally ANY other lynch is because he is Turaz's partner.

Turaz has already claimed Vanilla Townie, and then Ranmaru kept bringing that to my attention and trying to get me to comment on it. When I did, he didn't follow up any further. I think Ran was trying to distance from his partner here but didn't follow all the way through, and it shows.

I'm ready to lynch Turaz.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

reading
10 read ups

 

[ranmaru]

1. Raziek didn't shut it down, he only stated it wasn't happening. He never substantiated his reads on Rake or others, in fact he said he was holding his cards until you and Xiroey had posted. You actually agreed with me that Rake was indeed scummy and worth pushing, and you had only 'shut rake down' after Raziek showed up and said that. The reason I switched from Rake to Xiroey is because I found him more suspicious than Rake.

2. The reason I said "Are you with me, Kanty?" was only to see what you would have said. You had said the same thing when you were getting on Turaz, as if he was obv scummy. I agreed that he was suspicious for saying he was SUPER DEFENSIVE, yet Xiroey himself had called Pawn defensive, and was ALSO wishy washy on him, trying to keep a safe position. I was trying to get you in thread, to comment on more than just Turaz's claim, but also on my #206, and you to follow up on your question to Pawn, it seemed like you had a problem with Pawn doing the same as well, so I wanted to see what you would have said about that. Kanty, are you sure you just don't like me now because I have my own push and I'm not as passionate as you about your own push? Do you really think I don't have reason to suspect Xiroey here? Also, you only seemed to just look at ONE line of my case. You didn't really comment on the rest. Please look at the rest and really tell me what you think.

Turaz isn't a priority to me. I see more scumminess from Xiroey > Rake. Yet, he's [Turaz] only a backup lynch to me. I'd want Xiroey to be investigated in that situation. Would you be ok with that, Kantrip?

 

[Kantrip]

I did look at the rest, I don't feel it's particularly compelling. I'm refraining from pointing out specifics though because I'd like to let other people form their own opinions on it.

From the standpoint of Xiroey is getting replaced and has a lot less as far as interactions with other players go, don't you agree Turaz is a more logical D1 lynch? I'd be fine with looking into Xiroey if Turaz were to flip town, but as it stands now I think Turaz is a superior lynch.

 

[ranmaru]

If others want 'em, I'm fine with going towards a Turaz lynch. But I'm more for going my own way, while letting you do your own thing. Like if you had Turaz today [and he flipped town], I'd be fine with lynching (or having someone investigate xiroey before) xiroey tommorow.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Hmmm Ran I don't really agree with your Xiroey case, it seems like your main point is the private comm thing ?

Also, i always took those unvote vote's as him unvoting, just the wrong way. Maybe i was wrong though

 

[ranmaru]

No. My main point is that he wasn't as involved and never tried to get involved (or even respond to me) when I tried to reign him in, and that his play is superficial. He said he had time to post in the afternoon yesterday, yet notice he didn't. He was viewing else-where and engaging in convos and whatnot. His 'theory' didn't seem well thought out, and seemed like something Mafia would do. So, in addition to him making weird comments and excuses to his inactivity (I feel like his comment on our 'debate' to be a psuedo-excuse, "hey I read this long interaction so that means I'm almost caught up but not really oopsie"), his scumhunting has been superficial, which includes the theory, and him just leaving his vote on GaGa for a reaction, notice he doesn't say anything about it, and just unvotes and re-votes GaGa. He didn't really care about GaGa not reacting, he just put it out there to show he was 'doing something'. That's my opinion.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

#366 - Crappy case. Stretched points and repeated points.

I'm down with a Tuz lynch.

@Everyone: What's your plan on flip?

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

I'll throw out some reasoning if anyone cares enough to ask for it.

 

[ranmaru]

Yes please do.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

ah ok , I thought you were driving on the idea of the privvy convo thing as the sinker and I was like : ehhhh.

 

[ranmaru]

So now what is your opinion? And nah, I just didn't like his entire play.

 

[Kantrip]

No. My main point is that he wasn't as involved and never tried to get involved (or even respond to me) when I tried to reign him in, and that his play is superficial. He said he had time to post in the afternoon yesterday, yet notice he didn't. He was viewing else-where and engaging in convos and whatnot. His 'theory' didn't seem well thought out, and seemed like something Mafia would do. So, in addition to him making weird comments and excuses to his inactivity (I feel like his comment on our 'debate' to be a psuedo-excuse, "hey I read this long interaction so that means I'm almost caught up but not really oopsie"), his scumhunting has been superficial, which includes the theory, and him just leaving his vote on GaGa for a reaction, notice he doesn't say anything about it, and just unvotes and re-votes GaGa. He didn't really care about GaGa not reacting, he just put it out there to show he was 'doing something'. That's my opinion.

Okay, but him replacing out debunks everything you think about his inactivity. Did you consider the fact that he just wasn't getting engaged in the game of mafia and didn't enjoy it? Seems much more likely, and you're really reaching to try to give it scummy intent.

 

[Kantrip]

Also he was trying to unvote from GaGa to do something else with his vote, he wasn't trying to unvote and revote him.

Are you reconsidering your Xiroey read after hearing so many people think your case is bad?

 

[ranmaru]

Yes I did consider it. Yet I found his way of privately calling V/LA, and privately replacing out, sneaky. That's the only thing that holds me back. Yet I don't see why you think it's just that he wasn't interested in the game. Are you saying him replacing out makes him townier to you? Just wondering.

And no, people thinking my case is bad isn't making me reconsider. Why, should I?

 

[ranmaru]

Also he was trying to unvote from GaGa to do something else with his vote, he wasn't trying to unvote and revote him.

I don't think you really know if that was his intention, unless he stated that somewhere and I missed it.

 

[Kantrip]

I took his inactivity as null. Could have town intent, could have scum intent. Him replacing out proves that it wasn't some sinister purposeful lurking, so yeah it eliminates the scummy option making it more townie.

Him doing those things in private is null, why do you see it as shady?

 

[Kantrip]

I don't think you really know if that was his intention, unless he stated that somewhere and I missed it.

The fact that he voted for someone else in his next line and the rules in the OP state that the unvote command is performed that way.

 

[Kantrip]

Scratch that, I didn't check the rules in the OP to verify and just assumed they were like other games (which show the unvote command like that).

 

[ranmaru]

I took his inactivity as null. Could have town intent, could have scum intent. Him replacing out proves that it wasn't some sinister purposeful lurking, so yeah it eliminates the scummy option making it more townie.

Him doing those things in private is null, why do you see it as shady?

I wasn't just looking at his low thread presence. It was that along with his play (which I found to be superficial). You seem to be ignoring that part. Comment on that?
Him replacing out doesn't prove anything. It only proves he was unable to continue to play the game. Yet, I also find it odd he came in thread after I posted my case. (And didn't comment to say why he was busy) I don't doubt that he has personal issues or w/e, but it doesn't invalidate his slot from being scum.

Initially I requested the mod to prod Xiroey as he was in prod range, and instantly V/LA was called in response to that, it wasn't prepared in advance. Yeah, real nice to call V/LA when called out to post, especially when he was viewing around SWF at the time. That is why I view it as shady. I view the replace out the same way. He said he had plenty of time in the afternoon to post, yet he didn't, and then replaced out. He never mentioned he might need to be replaced due to some unforeseen circumstance. It just 'happened', like life does. I'm not going to let a replace out make me 'reconsider' my read on him. If not for today, I will keep him in my laser sights for tommorow.

So, are you THAT certain that his slot is townier, and even not a good option for tommorow if Turaz is lynched today? Curious.

 

[ranmaru]

Scratch that, I didn't check the rules in the OP to verify and just assumed they were like other games (which show the unvote command like that).

Ah, noted.

 

[Kantrip]

I'd be totally fine with having a cop look at him or looking into him in thread toMorrow on a Turaz townflip. He's not on my radar for toDay though.

 

[ranmaru]

It was that along with his play (which I found to be superficial). You seem to be ignoring that part. Comment on that?

Kool. Kantrip I still want you to comment on this though. I don't think you have to worry about others commenting before you because a few have already commented. Unless you are waiting for any people in particular to comment?

 

[Kantrip]

I do have specific people I am waiting for. Also I don't feel it's my job to defend a replaced out slot from a case I disagree with. All that should matter is I disagree, but if you really want me to pick it apart I'll do it after I get what I want.

 

[ranmaru]

Yes please do when you get what it is you want. Also wondering, what do you think of Pawn getting investigated as an alternative? I also need you to state your progressed read on him.

 

[Kantrip]

As of now I still like pawn, I wouldn't judge any choice of cop target but I think there are better options than him.

I think Rake and yourself are good targets, for example.

 

[ranmaru]

Hmm ok then, thank you.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

yeah Ran I'll get to it at some point today, I don't know when then because right now I am very sick and can barely string cohesive thought together.

I'd say him responding to a prod with a v/la is probably not that telling tbh, I feel like it's right on the line of him legit not calling one vs him calling one to avoid you.

Personally i'm more interested in his statement of thinking we were still in RVS , as that would suggest to me he wasn't taking what was going on in thread as seriously I'd think.

Now since your pushing him I take it he's more of a concern to you than Turaz, could you explain why (if you did and I missed it , can you point me to it ) IIRC you said Turaz was a consideration lynch ? (or was this a different slot you were talking about ? )

Sorry if you've already talked about some of this, but Im not having any luck remembering it right now.