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might have been worried about Xivii in particular (never seen him play 0 was looking forward to it), known he was investigative, were concerned about a doc protect on a louder player...
not for the fun of it. but there are too many options, and my concerns with you don't really hinge on the night kill anyway. I probably would still have argued against a Xivii lynch D2, pending his content
might have been worried about Xivii in particular (never seen him play 0 was looking forward to it), known he was investigative, were concerned about a doc protect on a louder player...
How could they have known there was an investigative role? The only possibilities of that are if scum had a N0 cop (which I've never seen) or Kouse tipped off that there was an investigative role, which I can tell you he didn't from his few posts. And why would they be worried about a person who hasn't played in years? If they were worried about Xivii, we should be looking in match history for people in this game who have played with him before as at least one of the Mafia.
1. #HBC | Nabe - Post, bro.
2. Red Ryu - Has been asking lots of good questions so far, but his reads seem a little weak right now (and he has not defended them very well thus far).
3. Gheb - I liked his post talking about Ran's play, but he hasn't posted much else. 4. Spak - Obvitown. 5. Dooplissity - He seems to be very knowledgeable about Mafia and built a pretty solid case against Ran, but I'm concerned by the fact that he's only focusing on Ran. He hasn't mentioned reads on anyone else, so I'd like to hear more about his opinions of other players before making a more solid call on this slot.
6. Vult Redux - I'll re-assess this slot on a day where I haven't been driving for 5 hours straight 7. Ranmaru - He did change his gut read mid-day with little to no explanation (which is a little fishy), but I'm seeing play that I've seen from Ran pretty much every other game I've played with him. I think that his responses have been honest based on the fact he couldn't have made up solid defenses in the time it took him to respond to most of the accusations, and he's stood by pretty much everything he's said. 8. Kouseband - This is a super weak lean and might just be noobtown presenting itself as scum, but it looks like he's intent on trying to take down Ran. I think that either Kouse and Ran are a team and this was Kouse's way to distance himself (scum!Kouse, probably not the case since I still think that Ran is pretty townie), Kouse knows that Ran won't push back as hard on the first game of Mafia so he was trying to put the spotlight on Ran (scum!Kouse), or Kouse is just using noobtown logic (town!Kouse). 9. Fandangox - Pointed out things that I missed the first read through, meaning that he's actually trying to break down an analyze everything rather than fish for a slip and then nail the person for an easy lynch. Or he's trying to find stuff to lynch people off of, but I've got a gut townie feeling on Fanny since he dropped the points against his suspect when they were explained well enough.
Town Town read Town lean Null Scum lean Scum read Scum
I was the first to actually do a full reads list, so many of the slots hadn't done anything of signifigance at that point. Doop, Nabe, and Gheb hadn't posted enough to get any valid reads on them, Ryu was a town lean off of his questioning but then the whole mixing up slots and saying Kouse voted Ran and not defending his reads well brought him back down to null, you, Kouse, and Fanny I had pretty solid reads on at the time, and I didn't want to go back and read Vult until the next day because I had driven for 5 hours straight before reading up and composing the list.
Because nobody asked, and when I was:
[quoteand his read change was to town lean on vult much later in the day when I ask for updates.[/quote]
Because I legit think that Vult is more likely to be town than scum.
True, but I gave time-based reasonings for why you couldn't have made up solid responses that weren't honest in the time period between questions and your answers, and now that I think about it, I've never seen you scum so I'm not sure what that looks like.
And had only been AWOL for 8 hours when I posted that read list. I fully expected for Kouse to try and fight my accusations, but he just ran.
Spak uses his own newbie game to compare to Kouse, which I don't think is fair as each person is unique and they react differently than others based on their own world view.
Fair enough, but I was put in a similar situation and I only have one point of data for a noob town being pressured from a slip-up. I had a lot of thoughts that phase, and none of which were to run away and quit lol.
#238 (Also, I was the one who said 'no one was suspicious of me' in response to his accusation of me) I think Spak tunneled Kouse too far, and wasn't looking to develop other reads with his vote.
This is an unfortunate tendency of mine. I know self-meta is garbage, but just look back at what I did to Kary in Undertale (I think that was the one?).
Since, Kouse was Awol, he elected to keep his vote on 'sir who isn't here' until he was replaced. To me, I think ScumSpak was intent on keeping his vote on a for sure easy lynch, instead of putting his support in Ryu's direction, which I greatly needed at the time. Him waiting for Xiiivi to be replaced in was too late for me.
I was perfectly content at the start of the day lynching a scummy slot, and I was more content at the end lynching an inactive scummy slot. I didn't have any sure-fire scumreads, so I figured a modkill and a mislynch and a NK would put us at even numbers and one less phase to play the game out. When Kouse was replaced, however, I decided to give Xivii a fresh start and changed over to Ryu. Plus, I would rather have killed an inactive slot who was contributing nothing than an active possibly scummy slot that was trying to generate content. Also, we both know that 3 hours before deadline is enough to swing 3 votes. Even if I changed at 6 rather than 9, people would have still killed Gheb because he was generally less favored than Ryu.
Him quoting his reasoning instead of re-phrasing shows he doesn't genuinely believe it in his heart, and has to quote his explanations when asked.
No, it means that I don't want to waste 5-10 minutes of my life every time someone asks me to write up my Ryu read. I've saved 20 minutes by quoting rather than re-typing a case, and that's worth it if my opinion hasn't changed.
Meaning, they are made up, and they are hard to explain on the spot. He has done this twice already toDay, and it shows his reads remain steady, and aren't static (changing). Our reads should usually change and not just stay in the same place.
If I was so concerned about this, I would paraphrase my original analysis rather than quoting it. Ryu's play hasn't changed at all since I analyzed his slot, so why should my read?
I can't believe he genuinely believes Ryu is scum without considering other reasoning, such as his reaction to my pushing D1.
I thought you v. Ryu made Ryu look more scummy and you more townie. The read you have a problem with me quoting is actually where I analyze the whole exchange and give my opinion on it. Additionally, it's kinda hard for me to develop my reads while you're trying to grill me on invalid points, as I go in a mentally defensive state when attacked and focus on clearing my name before looking for others to focus on.
Next, his thoughts do not line up with the wagon scenarios he proposes. Neither one (1 on and 1 off, or all off) is reflected in his reads.
It could be both on, I'm not sure. The wagon statement was me suggesting possibilities, and all off is impossible because I'm off.
His only scumread is Ryu. He agrees with Doop that Nabe would be sketchy due to this, but he then states that the reason he has not considered it was because he was weighing the options of scum killing in such a way to set him and Nabe up.
What prodding? I was answering you real-time and wasn't trying to dodge any questions. You, however, keep on refusing to answer my question a the end of #394.
He never answered why it prevented him from considering Nabe, the original problem.
It hasn't, and Nabe is a possibility. I want to wait until he gets back and then analyze the slot based upon his responses to Doop and general actions.
To me, it feels like he was only asking questions about the wagon investigation to seem townie, instead of genuinely thinking about it and actually using it to find who is scum on and off the wagon, because of this fear that scum may have set him up.
No, it means that I don't want to waste 5-10 minutes of my life every time someone asks me to write up my Ryu read. I've saved 20 minutes by quoting rather than re-typing a case, and that's worth it if my opinion hasn't changed.
I just realized something. Just bring back the little wagon quote from earlier, and look at the last part:
To me, it feels like he was only asking questions about the wagon investigation to seem townie, instead of genuinely thinking about it and actually using it to find who is scum on and off the wagon, because of this fear that scum may have set him up.
If I were scum, how could being set up by myself be my cause of worry? This part seems to assume that I'm town in order to fear being set up, which is odd considering Ran's entire post. Looking mighty suspicious over there, Ran.
When I mention you trying to appear town, I also believe that the fear is fake as well. I neglected to mention a good strategy scum can use is make it look like they were victimized and that is my angle. So I believe it is possible you, as scum, possibly killed Kouse to make it seem like scum (that isn't you) targetted you so you can talk about that in your defense. I will respond to the rest later in the day.
When I mention you trying to appear town, I also believe that the fear is fake as well. I neglected to mention a good strategy scum can use is make it look like they were victimized and that is my angle. So I believe it is possible you, as scum, possibly killed Kouse to make it seem like scum (that isn't you) targetted you so you can talk about that in your defense. I will respond to the rest later in the day.
But at the end of the day scum would still be taking out a useless slot, which would overall benefit town more than it would benefit them unless they had pretty significant ulterior motives. In the hypothetical scum!Ran situation, you could have killed Kouse yourself and blamed me for killing him to victimize myself and make it seem like I'm being targeted. Your point here is pure WIFOM, so that's not a good enough reason to kill off an inactive slot. Also, I wasn't looking for pity for being "targeted" by scum (and didn't bring that up because it's WIFOM), I was looking for scum setting up the non-Gheb wagon to make it look like Nabe and I should be the main lynches for today and possibly turn us against each-other (hey look, our slots are the only ones with votes aside from my Ryu vote; it looks like scum might steamroll this game).
Xiivi being taken out would benefit scum more than town. Xiivi = Zen, and it would not be a useless slot after being replaced. I know it is wifom, but you brought it up as a defense, I only asked what your analysis of it was and why it prevented you from looking at Nabe. Whatever scum's reason for night killing (in general), you should expect it to be for an optimal reason, and not for a silly reason.
That's why I said probably. It does make Nabe look kinda sketch, but at the same time the Kouse lynch doesn't make sense to me and I have to consider the possibility that someone set up the non-lynch pool so that Nabe and I would turn against each-other.
Xiivi being taken out would benefit scum more than town. Xiivi = Zen, and it would not be a useless slot after being replaced. I know it is wifom, but you brought it up as a defense, I only asked what your analysis of it was and why it prevented you from looking at Nabe. Whatever scum's reason for night killing (in general), you should expect it to be for an optimal reason, and not for a silly reason.
I wouldn't know that as I've never played with the guy, and hasn't been playing for years, so should we be looking for an old-time veteran as one of the scum? Also, I think that the wagon theory isn't too far-fetched. I may be alone in this, but I believe that it's a valid supposition.
Oh, that makes sense now. I've been looking at it from a PoV where at least one person not on the Gheb wagon is confirmed town, but I forgot you guys don't have that luxury. Yes I'm stating that it's a possibility that we've been set up, no I never said it was definite, nor did I say it was more likely than any other outcome. I was just putting ideas out there so people don't instantly assume that Nabe is scum if I get lynched, and was trying to figure out ways that the NK could be justified.
I was the first to actually do a full reads list, so many of the slots hadn't done anything of signifigance at that point. Doop, Nabe, and Gheb hadn't posted enough to get any valid reads on them, Ryu was a town lean off of his questioning but then the whole mixing up slots and saying Kouse voted Ran and not defending his reads well brought him back down to null, you, Kouse, and Fanny I had pretty solid reads on at the time, and I didn't want to go back and read Vult until the next day because I had driven for 5 hours straight before reading up and composing the list.
You didn't need to post a full reads list at that point of the game. You didn't give a read on vult until 3 days later, and only when asked. You didn't actively try to give a read yourself. Having a full reads list first doesn't matter if it's all weak, and pointless. You only needed to post about Me, Kouse, and Fanny.
As strong as your Kouse read, which seem to have 7 posts according to your analysis. He might have a little more but he did not post much. Either way, it doesn't mean you can be wishy washy about it.
True, but I gave time-based reasonings for why you couldn't have made up solid responses that weren't honest in the time period between questions and your answers, and now that I think about it, I've never seen you scum so I'm not sure what that looks like.
I think it was fine to wait, but waiting past the prod did not seem fruitful, especially considering he was a raw newbie which I attacked pretty strongly.
Fair enough, but I was put in a similar situation and I only have one point of data for a noob town being pressured from a slip-up. I had a lot of thoughts that phase, and none of which were to run away and quit lol.
This is an unfortunate tendency of mine. I know self-meta is garbage, but just look back at what I did to Kary in Undertale (I think that was the one?).
I was perfectly content at the start of the day lynching a scummy slot, and I was more content at the end lynching an inactive scummy slot. I didn't have any sure-fire scumreads, so I figured a modkill and a mislynch and a NK would put us at even numbers and one less phase to play the game out. When Kouse was replaced, however, I decided to give Xivii a fresh start and changed over to Ryu. Plus, I would rather have killed an inactive slot who was contributing nothing than an active possibly scummy slot that was trying to generate content. Also, we both know that 3 hours before deadline is enough to swing 3 votes. Even if I changed at 6 rather than 9, people would have still killed Gheb because he was generally less favored than Ryu.
No, it means that I don't want to waste 5-10 minutes of my life every time someone asks me to write up my Ryu read. I've saved 20 minutes by quoting rather than re-typing a case, and that's worth it if my opinion hasn't changed.
A big case I can understand, those take a great amount of time for anyone. A paragraph is different. It's easier for people to hide behind words they took the time to plan carefully. You yourself notice that I respond quickly and genuinely, so you too understand that if a person is pressured and cannot come up with an on the spot explanation, they may be lying.
If I was so concerned about this, I would paraphrase my original analysis rather than quoting it. Ryu's play hasn't changed at all since I analyzed his slot, so why should my read?
I thought you v. Ryu made Ryu look more scummy and you more townie. The read you have a problem with me quoting is actually where I analyze the whole exchange and give my opinion on it. Additionally, it's kinda hard for me to develop my reads while you're trying to grill me on invalid points, as I go in a mentally defensive state when attacked and focus on clearing my name before looking for others to focus on.
Can you explain to me what you thought of his reaction to my push D1? I don't remember if you talked about that, you talked about his reads but not that. It is, but you had plenty of time to develop reads before hand.
What prodding? I was answering you real-time and wasn't trying to dodge any questions. You, however, keep on refusing to answer my question a the end of #394.
It hasn't, and Nabe is a possibility. I want to wait until he gets back and then analyze the slot based upon his responses to Doop and general actions.
This day has been getting far too silly, so that's it! It's over! The day is done! Spak is dead! It's just because you couldn't come up with a proper hammer
Not true, not true
Spak has been executed! Flip coming when the mod is not at dinner, but the day is over, no more posting. Complain about this through PMs to me. Night 2 begins
i mean i don't mind moving up in the claim order but my concern is that I have information about a certain character and I don't want anyone who claims behind me to be able to take advantage of that
at this point my information probably won't make a difference but I just want everyone's characters in advance just in case so someone can't backtrack later
at this point my information probably won't make a difference but I just want everyone's characters in advance just in case so someone can't backtrack later
I had him at a null, but rapidly declining read at the end of D1, and iirc he didn't do anything particularly helpful on D2, although it was short. I didn't have him at a scumread but all of his townpoints came from early D1. I just don't like the thought of someone who was largely seen as null or scum claiming last, when we have Ran who is pretty universally townread and me, who's been mostly null/town.
I thought the same thing!!! I wasn't going to say anything until after claiming but now it's out there so
I remember that Ran changed his mind suddenly d2. I asked him about it and idr what he said but I think I just let it slide because he read him as town.
But nobody except scum woulda known that Gheb would flip town, so that didn't answer my question from #382. Also, how exactly did it make you re-evaluate your reads? What led you to believe that me and Fanny are scum from the fact that Gheb flipped town?
Exactly. It meant there was still two scum to look for. I couldn't continue to push Ryu when he reacts genuinely to my push. It was my only lead at the time. So now I am thinking harder on who goes today. I am interested in ryus reads today.
Is there anything I can help you understand about Nabe? I feel like he's pretty far and away our best candidate right now. Maybe you can help me understand RR - he's still at null to me because he felt very Town early, but pretty Scum late, and that makes me uncomfortable b/c i'm obviously wrong about half the phase.
vote: nabe (and no I haven't forgotten about that post)
Doop I am still figuring Ryu out but at the moment he is getting better for me. I feel he would be a bit more transparent as scum. His wagon hop gheb was concerning so I would keep an eye on him in case he does anything opportunistic, but I like his posting today so far.
fwiw i (pre-claim) find it hard to imagine a Ryu-Ran scumteam. If it's a Ran-Nabe team then I think Ran's behavior sets up a RR lynch later if he were to flip.
but that's just one scenario and I'm not standing behind any of my reads until after the claims
This order with Vult/Ran switched is fine. I'd prefer Ran next, before Doop.
I'm the nudge nudge sketch, voyeur. Town-aligned. I've been faking a post restriction where I had to say "nudge" in every post, because I didn't want to be in this game at all much less pretend that I scumhunt, and voyeur is a weak PR, so in a flavoured setup it seemed like baiting a kill would be trivial. (Apparently not.) But something is pretty clear with all of the flips and with my results as well, which aren't voyeur results at all.
N1 I targeted Spak, my only strong town read, who I "caught" liking soap (I'm leaving out a lot of flavour description and sex jokes). I thought there was something weird going on, and that this meant that Spak was a janitor. My only post D2 was in regards to that, when I was waiting on an answer from the mod, thinking he had given me the wrong result. Then Spak flipped Town and that theory was out.
N2 I targeted Ryu, who has a lot of hair, or doesn't shave it. So there's one of two things going on here:
a) I'm actually getting role flavour results (which I think is unlikely, unless Ryu confirms a hair-related sketch)
b) Given all of the role flips that have been "Fake" so far (every one except Gheb) I'm probably Fake Voyeur, which explains the weirdness. By extension, this probably applies to all VTs in the game, which is to say VTs are Fake roles that get weird results. This would be contrasted with real roles, like Gheb and probably 1 more real PR, who get concrete results that are strongly worded.