So here are some thoughts on Day 1 again. Get ready for yet another round of MASSIVE 180° turns!
[collapse="Day 1 according to Gheb_01"]Page #4:
Some of Gorf's input on that page looks quite interesting with hindsight. I feel like he might've been onto something about Zen in #146, #149, #159 and on page 4 with post #183. There's a lot of good questions in that batch of posts and Zen's only direct answer is questionable enough to me. He's saying that Werekill was trying to make him look bad. But I feel like WK's response [first part of #193] has a fair point and he was right to question Zen.
Page 10:
Not entirely sure why Macman has chosen to counter-attack Jerkus like that anymore. I remember not having that much of a pro-town read on Jerkus myself but now I feel like some of Macman's points against him are blown out of proportion. Especially in post #391. In post #360 Jerkus debunks Macman's attacking points as largely OMGUS. It's interesting to note that Macman's 'new' reasoning in #391 is still actually OMGUS, focusing too much on the connection/buddy thing that Jerkus pointed out and formulating a scumread off of it. I don't read it as scummy though but more like a confirmation-bias thing were Macman reads too much into something minor. I think he's defending himself pretty solidly, it's just that his counter-attack against Jerkus is bad and stupid, as confirmed by Jerkus' town flip.
Post #402:
This is a post that has all of Scaryscum's reads. I can't believe this post was missed because it should contain a lot of telling information. On Zen, for example. Cause like, I have no ****ing clue what the hell Scary is talking about in that paragraph when his reason for being OK with Mac seems fair enough. To me, it look like he's trying too hard to have Zen as neither a scumread, nor a townread. Zen's #405 smells. Not sure what Frozen reads him as town for in #426 but I think it's not a good post in general. Gonna focus on Frozen's D2 input to read him.
Post #454:
Good one by Jerkustown. It almost makes me wonder why Jerkus doesn't jump the conclusion that Zen is scummy for it tbh. Makes me wonder even more where Frozen was coming from to like Zen's explanation on why Jerkus is supposedly scummy. Definitely starting to feel Zenscum here, through posting interactions. I know he's been on both scum lynches but idk, I don't wanna exclude the possibility of a double-bus having happened.
Page #12:
At this point I'm pretty sure that Jerkus vs Macman isn't TvS. The entire argument seems like a huge misunderstanding by that point. Macman keeps thinking that Jerkus is scum because he's waiting in vain for a response on that iluv/Mac connection thing and Jerkus keeps pushing Macman for tunneling and not getting it. That's what it actually comes down to. But as accurate as Circus' explanation of Macman's meta might've been in the beginning, by that time Macman has already stopped playing to his scum meta completely. Macman is one of the only people I will deliberately try to meta read because his scum meta is lol. Stuff like #499 is classic town Macman though.
Post #502:
This post is so ridiculously accurate on something so obscure with such certainty that I almost start to think that this could easily have been a bus. Sometimes it sucks to have such a complicated mind like me, to consider everything and make things more difficult than needed be. Every normal person would probably insta-read Gorf as town for it <_<
Page #13:
Xatres starts to post and ... he does it very poorly imo. Not "bad play" kind of poorly but actually "bad play and potentially scummy" kind of poorly. Xatres is confident that much is for sure so I won't let the argument that "aggressive play = townie" slide in that case. Especially since his aggressiveness seems very much tacked-on and not very genuine. In #509 he goes in overly hard on pretty much any stereotypical thing of Jerkus' response. The real question here is: does Xatres actually believe in what he's saying here? Especially the last paragraph in #509 strikes me as suspicious. What's happening to me there is that Xatres essentially threatens Jerkus to not question his read on giraffe and pretends that this reaction was exactly what he was going for. Very hard to believe considering how Jerkus' reaction was very natural and understandable - Xatres pretty much provoked it by not explaining it and noting that he'd keep his cards close to his chest. Note that both giraffe and Jerkus are confirmed town.
His reasoning in #512 is not very strong and I agree with Macman's #513. Moreover, I very much agree with Jerkus' #534 and #535.
Post #630:
This is a somewhat random votecount but I feel it shows a number of noteworthy things in retrospect. Townjerkus was wagoned by at least one scumbag, one inactive slot, one who was in full-tunnel mode [Macman] and somebody whose opinion I don't trust [giraffe]. Definitely puts Zen's slot in the spotlight for me again.
I think the three slots that voted for Xatres deserve credit, Jerkus is confirmed town and idk what I was thinking when I came up with FMLscum lol. Frozen is the only nullslot on that wagon which makes me feel even better about possibly lynching Xatres sooner rather than later!
Basically, it reinforces my thoughts on a number of things [Xatres and Zen being plays for toDay, me being wrong on Macman / FML].
Page #17:
Both frozen and gorf switch to FML, which I don't know how to feel about now for either of them. Frozen was very happy all of D1 and he specifically told me that he doesn't get my case on FML earlier. Gorf switching to a different wagon seems to make sense at first but it's actually his own fault that the Bardull wagon never happened because he hasn't done **** to convince people of it despite appearing VERY confident in his case on Bardull.
Xatres strikes bad and switches to Jerkus and his reasoning is just bad. He focuses on nothing but the AtE part after blowing stuff out of proportion. Post #661 is the post I'm talking about. The way he draws a connection from the usage of words as 'dislike' [an EXTREMELY common word in J's vocabulary] to AtE is quite baffling, actually.
Post #675 makes me wonder yet again why Jerkus doesn't read Zen as scum for what he's been posting.
Page #19:
Joey replaces in, his post #725 is still awesome and I'm already wondering why I have considered the option of lynching Joey at all <_<
Probably because I trust Vult too much or give his reads too much credit. Post #727 also looks VERY good to me now.
Xatres #736 also sucks and overinterprets things like mad. I hate how every time somebody rightfully calls out his weaker points Xatres instantly calls him out for being 'manipulative'. He's often reading the worst into almost everything and if he's townie he's doing the opposite of what he should be doing.
I kind of stopped reading after this point because this is where the Scary wagon -> lynch is starting. So I'll just look at the final votecount:
3. Jerkus (Circus/J) (3) - th3kuzinator, ilovegiraffes, Xatres
4. FrozenFlame (3) - Joey, ScaryLB59
7. Ilovegiraffes (Red Ryu/Ranmaru) (1) - ScaryLB59
9. ScaryLB59 (8) - Gorf, Jerkus, FullMetalLynch, Werekill, Zen, Nabe, Rajam, Macman
12. FullMetalLynch (Rake/Orboknown) (2) - Gheb_01, Frozenflame
I find it odd that frozen chose to keep his vote on FML when he had the time to ***** about people trying to last-minute lynch him. He never wasn't that much behind the FML lynch I think and he had kept his options open all of Day 1 tbh.
Jerkus wagon is ****tier than ****ty and the people on it all deserve flak.
Scary wagon definitely had at least one bus with Rajam on it but there's a chance that it was actually the only one. If somebody other than Rajam bussed him it was either Gorf or Zen.[/collapse]
My main issue with Day 1 is that the players I feel best about don't have very good connections [Macman, Joey] and the slots I'm rather sceptical about have very good connections overall [Nabe, Gorf, Zen]. This could mean that there are [multiple] indies, multiple mafia factions, a traitor or other shenanigans. I may get back to that point later as I write this post. Nabe, alongside FML and Werekill is actually the least likely slot to be mafia. I'm not going to completely exclude the chance of an indie being in there but I'm quite sure now it's not Nabe. If there's an indy among them I'd say it's FML but that's a very moot point right now.
There are three slots that haved looked good on Day 1 neither through play, nor through connections. That would be Frozen, Xatres and kuz/vult. Keep in mind that this is all based on Day 1 [D2 analysis will be provided later!] so this is subject to change. Frozen has given me indy /traitor vibes more than anything else and kuz has been completely inactive.
Summary: based on D1 I'd say that Nabe, Macman, Joey and Werekill are very likely town with virtually no chance of any of them being indy. FML is also likely town but has a higher chance of being indy imo because his stances have been shaky / potentially opportunistic and he doesn't actually have too many connections or content provided.
Gorf has also provided surprisingly little content considering the fact that he was a universal town read to like everybody. I really don't see him as mafia. He's either town or a brilliantly playing indy. Considering it's Gorf, I'd say it's the former. What has me sceptical about him is the fact that he was right on Bardull AND scary and wrong on like, nobody. Can't blame him for it but I have to be wary.
I despise Zen's slot with all my heart. I still cannot categorize him at all.
Frozen, Xatres and Vult are the three safest lynches based on Day 1 in my book now.
~ Gheb ~ - Why vote Macman and not me or Joey? So far BOTH my publically stated top scumpicks have flipped town, and I haven't been on either scum wagon. (Though to be fair, if Jerkus had ever answered one of my questions, I wouldn't have been tunneling so hard)
#HBC | Nabe
Sup *****. I've been quick to defend you because I've generally liked your voting pattern throughout the game but I wanna know why you've been so silent and when you're going to make another move. My knowledge of your play is your voting pattern and your case on Rajam. I think you're town at the moment for it but that's not a gamble I'm willing to make in LyLo. You ever gonna stick your neck out?
Your reaction was still pretty random from my perspective. But I do often make the assumption that people share my understanding in things without me having explained.