Yeah, that's a no.
Hypothetical situation:
The mafia RB claims toDay to get who he thinks is the cult leader lynched. That player
does flip cult leader, and the remaining numbers are 1 mafia, 1 cult, and 2 town. 1 player dies in the night, 33% chance it was cult. Remaining numbers are either maf/cult/town or maf/town/town, but either way, the
claimed mafia member now has to argue that the remaining town member(s) should award him the win by lynching someone who isn't him, against the chance that both non-mafia players are town, that being the only situation in which town can win.
Town will
never take the potential Prisoner's Dilemma over a win, and therefore the mafia member (assuming he is sufficiently intelligent to think a single step ahead of his claim) will
never claim here.
So, what is Ryu doing?
a) Ryu is a really stupid mafia RB (I choose not to believe Ryu to be stupid)
b) Ryu is the cult leader, making a bad ploy to secure my lynch (possible, given that he only needs one non-cult lynch to win if he is cult leader)
c) Ryu is the cult recruit from last Night. Now, this one needs a bit more thought than (a) to disprove. But I feel this option to be unlikely, for two reasons:
- Ryu's style of play, and focus of attack (me) has been consistent between phases, suggesting there's been no change in his role
- There would be only two reasons to make this play as a cult recruit: if their cult leader were in danger of being lynched instead (which isn't the case), or if the recruit thought that they would claim mafia and have everyone believe it to be true, in order to force a lynch and win the game (but see (a), Ryu is not stupid)
So, the likeliest answer to the bolded question is
(b) Ryu is the cult leader.