Mini Mafia Game Thread | Newbies are welcome! | Town wins Gheb's game | Zen next to host!

[Xatres]

Not enough time, or just one stupid mistake.

Pretty much both.

 

[Xatres]

I'm trying to work out all the scenarios right now and my brain hurts.

 

[Xatres]

Sad truth is that there's a good chance town is already outnumbered right now. And THAT'S why cultist games are super screwy and generally undesirable.

If Red Ryu is cult leader... he's playing ballsy.

If Nabe is cult leader... he'll need to desperately redirect because lynching a mafia RR at this point pretty much loses the game for town.

If Vinyl is cult leader... he's just sitting back and laughing at the chaos ensuing around him.

If Potassium is cult leader... he's buddying me hardcore because he can't afford to recruit a doomed townie.

I don't suppose anyone wants to amp up the chaos and CC Red Ryu?

 

[Vinylic.]

I cc red ruy claiming scum because I'm scum and fgnbvcsaZx nbtekokfgnblfdkl

 

[Vinylic.]

Can we take this more seriously, please? Xatres, who are you really looking into since you're leading? If you're in doubt, just start off with your most suspected interest and they'll do the job. This ruy vs nabe is really getting off-track in what we're actually facing, because I know scum wouldn't single-handedly claim like that. Someone's trying to take advantage and wanted this to happen and see if they can take the advantage.

 

[Vinylic.]

Scum isn't going to claim so easily, so they leaves nabe's point to be right.

Ruy's the cult.
Potassium's the scumbag.
Nabe's probably the last VT in this game.

@ Kantrip @ #HBC | Nabe

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Nabe is misleading you guys.

I would never pull this of I were telling the truth.

This is kingmaker, lynch me and cult wins.

> I apply a systematic approach that breaks the situation down to bald logic
> Counter-argument is "he's misleading you" rather than trying to touch the actual logic

 

[Jdietz43]

Day 2 Begins!
With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch!

[1] Red Ryu - Nabe
[1] Nabe - Red Ryu
[0] Xatres -
[0] Potassium -
[0] Vinyl

[3] Not Voting - Xatres, Potassium, Vinyl

Deadline is Midnight Tuesday, the 18th!

 

[Detective Sherlock Hound]

> I apply a systematic approach that breaks the situation down to bald logic
> Counter-argument is "he's misleading you" rather than trying to touch the actual logic

Doesn't matter, I'm not cult leader.

I claimed to stop myself from losing as mafia.

If you're not cult leader, I still think you are, who is?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I claimed to stop myself from losing as mafia.

no, claiming ensures your loss if mafia
i laid out very plainly that doing that would be dumb
are you dumb

 

[Detective Sherlock Hound]

Well they don't call me Ruy for nothing.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

If I'm wrong, tell me precisely why, and then why in the **** you'd think I'm cult leader?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I told you why.

I claimed so I wouldn't lose.

I think you slipped D1 with the mention.

If it's not you it is Kantrip.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

A slip? If you are serious in post-game about thinking there is a slip, you're D1 policy fodder in the future.

As-is, I'm extremely content with this lynch. Even as claimed mafia shouting cult warnings and saying "we need to cooperate", Ryu refuses to play ball with town. He has not once put words to why he finds me scummy, only saying that my opening post was scummy (and now that it's "a slip") without any elaboration. When asked, he does not elaborate. He is intentionally closed-off, because there is nothing to elaborate on. When told he's being uncooperative, he gets cagey and speaks in broad generalizations, because specifics would sink him.


Red Ryu is the cult leader.
Where are the votes?

 

[Detective Sherlock Hound]

You in every game past this?



I've made my stance clear.

Let's win it for town vote nabe.

 

[Xatres]

Okay Red Ryu, you want a town victory, here's how you do it.

We have 5 players left. I'm going to gamble and say that either Dark Horse was recruited (and promptly died) or that he managed to shrink the recruit target. Any other scenario and town's pretty much mathematically lost already.

I'm going to vote for a No Lynch, and tonight the mafia (whether it's Red Ryu or someone else) is going to kill who they think is the cult leader. If RR is telling the truth, Nabe will likely die. If not, RR or whoever the real mafia thinks is cult leader will die. I will protect no one, in order to ensure that the cult leader has the highest chance of death.

So long as mafia hits the cult leader, in the morning town will look like this:

2 town
1 cult recruit
1 mafia

Town lynches mafia, and the next night no one dies AND no one gets recruited (since the leader is dead). The final 3 get to figure out who the recruit is.

To me, this is the best chance for town to win.

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I don't want a town victory I wanna win.

 

[Xatres]

Tough luck.

Kill the cult leader or we both lose. Your choice.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'd rather take my chances lynching than this.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

You realize with 2 cultists, if I shoot wrong or if I shoot town we all lose right?

 

[Vinylic.]

Lmao, ****ing nope.

Vote: Red Ryu

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Vinyl unvote me, what are you doing.

 

[Vinylic.]

Marbles have been lost last time.
I will not let this day lose marbles again.

 

[Vinylic.]

@ Xatres , what are you doing.

Do I have to do everything in my power to convince you that ryu's a cult leader?

 

[Xatres]

If he's cult leader, then mafia HAS to kill him in the night for any chance at victory. He's outed himself by claiming.

If there are two cultists right now, we lose even if lynch the cult leader right now. All mafia has to do is kill the doctor (me) and tomorrow we're in kingmaker. Town has no chance to win.

If there is only one cultist right now, we let mafia kill them and we get a chance at lynching mafia D3 and then tonight cult's recruit D4.

 

[Xatres]

There's also the chance that Red Ryu was recruited last night, and by lynching him will allow the leader to recruit another person tonight. But again, if there's two cultist right now, we've lost already. Therefore it's pointless to pursue that line of thinking.

 

[Vinylic.]

If that's what you think, then just vote ryu and end the game.

It's very possible that there's two cultist, but I know that ryu wouldn't claim scum. That's not scummy, that's indieotic.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'm not the cult leader.

 

[Vinylic.]

You're not scum either.

Who are you for real.

 

[Xatres]

Run the math and prove me wrong. I'll willing to listen.

Right now I'm banking on there being no recruit (the only real scenario for town victory), which makes my plan the best one we have.

 

[Xatres]

Keep in mind that there's every chance that RR doesn't actually think Nabe is the cult leader. He could just be pushing a mislynch that guarantees the kingmaker scenario in the morning, banking on hitting his actual pick for cult leader in the night. I'm just forcing his hand.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

If the cult recruit wasn't DH, the game is still winnable. Why are you saying otherwise?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

@ Kantrip

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Vinyl vote Nabe
Xatres vote Nabe
Potassium vote Nabe

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Hashing out math issues:

5 players right now, hypothetical maximum of two cult with one mafia and two townies.

On cult leader lynch: game proceeds as I detailed in my Ryu case.
On cult recruit lynch: possibility of town winning the game resides in mafia's RB and NK choices, but it's still possible.
(of course, Ryu is not a cult recruit so that's irrelevant anyway)
On mafia lynch: we lost! These things happen to the best of us, and I've already shown exactly why Ryu isn't mafia.
On town lynch: not applicable, we know Ryu to be some flavour of scum.

Lynching Ryu is the absolute best course of action. There is no way that he thinks any scenario toMorrow will work out in his favour as claimed mafia, against the possiblity that both remaining players are town.



@ Xatres
Address my post 3994 which you have ignored, and while you're at it 3996, which you've tried to ignore as well.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

@ #HBC | Red Ryu
What is your read on Vinyl exactly / why is he not a cult option fypov?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Because he is Vinyl.

 

[Xatres]

5 players right now, hypothetical maximum of two cult with one mafia and two townies.

On cult leader lynch: Scum shoots doc, D3 begins 1 cult, 1 maf, 1 scum... town loses
On cult recruit lynch: Scum MUST both roleblock and kill cult leader for town AND hope for doc not to protect the leader to have any chance of victory
On mafia lynch: Town loses
On town lynch: Town loses

All your scenarios except a cult recruit lynch end in a town loss, and you've already said you don't think RR is the recruit... Try again.

 

[Kantrip]

Ok gonna say this and it is why I think Nabe is the Cult leader.

I am mafia.

Lynch me and Nabe and his Cult wins, I shot Dark Horse because I thought he was the most likely recruit.

Why are you helping us?

You want a town win over a cult win? You believe that strongly that Nabe is cult?

 

[Kantrip]

Yeah, that's a no.


Hypothetical situation:

The mafia RB claims toDay to get who he thinks is the cult leader lynched. That player does flip cult leader, and the remaining numbers are 1 mafia, 1 cult, and 2 town. 1 player dies in the night, 33% chance it was cult. Remaining numbers are either maf/cult/town or maf/town/town, but either way, the claimed mafia member now has to argue that the remaining town member(s) should award him the win by lynching someone who isn't him, against the chance that both non-mafia players are town, that being the only situation in which town can win.

Town will never take the potential Prisoner's Dilemma over a win, and therefore the mafia member (assuming he is sufficiently intelligent to think a single step ahead of his claim) will never claim here.


So, what is Ryu doing?

a) Ryu is a really stupid mafia RB (I choose not to believe Ryu to be stupid)
b) Ryu is the cult leader, making a bad ploy to secure my lynch (possible, given that he only needs one non-cult lynch to win if he is cult leader)
c) Ryu is the cult recruit from last Night. Now, this one needs a bit more thought than (a) to disprove. But I feel this option to be unlikely, for two reasons:

• Ryu's style of play, and focus of attack (me) has been consistent between phases, suggesting there's been no change in his role
• There would be only two reasons to make this play as a cult recruit: if their cult leader were in danger of being lynched instead (which isn't the case), or if the recruit thought that they would claim mafia and have everyone believe it to be true, in order to force a lynch and win the game (but see (a), Ryu is not stupid)

So, the likeliest answer to the bolded question is (b) Ryu is the cult leader.

This is really logical and if mafia was likewise it would be true, but unfortunately it is WIFOM and I am not putting a) out of the question