I posted this in the General Discussion thread but this seems relevant to the conversation going on here too:
I remember shortly after Brawl came out a number of people were debating what determined whether a character was "safe" or not. Here are a few things people speculated:
1. Characters that have appeared in more than one Smash game have more prevalence than those that have just appeared in one.
2. Characters who appear in the starting roster at some point in time have more prevalence than unlockable characters.
3. Main characters have prevalence over side characters.
4. Characters with unique movesets have prevalence over clones and semiclones.
5. Characters with more modern relevance have prevalence over older characters.
6. First/second party characters have prevalence over third party characters.
7. Popularity is less significant than everything listed above.
So, if we were to divide up the current cast into tiers into how likely they are to stick around based on these standards, it would look something like this:
God Tier:
The original 8. All are the stars in their respective franchises, all have unique movesets, and all have been starters in every single game so far.If any of them were cut, the universe would probably implode on itself.
Top Tier:
The original 4 unlockables plus the Ice Climbers and the two unlockable franchise stars in Melee. Aside from Luigi, all have unique movesets, all are the leading characters in their respective franchises, and all have been in at least two games. It should also be noted that Ness and Captain Falcon were both starters in Melee, theoretically increasing their "job security."Jigglypuff's relevance is iffy but the other factors are argued to help her out a lot. It should be noted that of the new additions to Melee's starting roster, the Ice Climbers were the only ones that represented a new franchise. Ice Climbers, Marth, and Game and Watch are ranked above people like Bowser and Peach simply because they are the stars of their respective franchises. The chances of any of these characters leaving is pretty small.
High Tier:
Melee's new starting roster additions as well some of the Melee unlockables who "survived" the cuts. All are side characters but still important to their franchises with several of them being playable in canon appearances.All have been in at least two games and more than half of them have unique movesets. These characters have been established as staples in Smash but not as much as the original cast. Some of these characters are only a little iffy but they are probably near the bottom of the list when it comes to characters that are being considered to be cut. If anything, they're more likely to be tweaked then get the boot.
Mid Tier:
Most of Brawl's new starting roster plus ROB. Roughly half of them are franchise stars and all of them have been playable in canon games in their respective franchise. All are still very relevant to their respective franchises and all have unique movesets. ROB is a special case largely because he was the only unlockable character in Brawl representing a new first party franchise to Smash. These characters are not yet staples of Smash Bros but it's widely agreed that they all have a long history ahead of them.
Low Tier:
The remaining newcomers in Brawl's starting roster. All are franchise stars but their relevance is argued to be questionable (especially Ike). PT and Ike have unique movesets while Lucas is the only semi-clone who has ever made it to the starting roster of a Smash game, something questionably significant but could ultimately save his skin. PT and Ike are in danger of being replaced by newer characters in their respective franchises and many people argue that Ike will become the new "Roy" once SSB4 actually comes out. These characters are on the chopping block but have enough going for them to not make them at the top of the list.
Bottom Tier:
The remaining new unlockable characters in Brawl including the two third party "guests." Despite Sonic's overwhelming popularity, modern relevance, and unique moveset, his inclusion is entirely dependent on SEGA's cooperation. If SEGA says no or Nintendo doesn't bother to contact them, that's the end of it. Snake's the same way except with Konami. Lucario's relevance is as hotly debated as PT and Ike but, unlike them, he was unlockable and he's a side character in his respective franchise. Wolf is still important to the Star Fox franchise but he's plagued with a number of things. He was Brawl's only unlockable new semi-clone and still a supporting character in his respective franchise. If there are any cuts made in SSB4, there is no doubt that at least one of these guys will be one of them.
