First off, quit calling either side stupid for believing he won't or will be in the fricking game.
I just want to point out a few things though; but first, let me copy and paste what Inafune said:
[1]"Well, I really do love Super Smash Brothers. [2]It’s a great series…but, Nintendo hasn’t asked me yet if they can use Mega Man in their game. [3]I’m still waiting…we have a little bit of time left, it’s not coming out for another few months. [4]They might get around to asking us if we’d like to put Mega Man in Super Smash Brothers. [5]Maybe if somebody from Nintendo is listening to this podcast, they’ll give me a call."
You can tell that this statement is desperately trying to avoid the question. I will break it up for you so you can understand better. I will do it individually by sentence number.
[1] basically is Inafune preaching his admiration of the Smash Bros. franchise. This is key. Onto [2]....
[2] is a very important sentence, because here we can see a bit of hypocrisy. Smash Bros. is a franchise built from the ground up using key mascots in the growth and success of Nintendo's namesake. After all, it is through these mascots that Nintendo is able to keep on sailing. 3rd party characters have made their impact on Nintendo's success as well, even Snake, although he didn't really get booming until he was a sony man. Ok, so if Snake can get in, and Kojima had to beg, and Sonic could get in through popularity....
How is it even possible that Nintendo would not make contact with the creator of the ONE third party mascot that has been somewhat of a Nintendo faithful throughout his entire lifespan? Yes, he is third party, but his overall success has been on Nintendo consoles, as well as roughly 80-85% of his games appearing as a Nintendo title. It is from Nintendo that Megaman got his start, as well as continues his success to this day. So, how is it possible Sakurai would just "forget" to contact Inafune when in sentence [1] we see Inafune's opinion on the franchise as a whole? You don't "forget" someone as popular as Megaman, especially where he has incredulous popularity in Japan as WELL as the US. So knowing this, and Inafune's opinion on the Smash Bros. franchise as a whole...there would be no conflict with Megaman making the cut IF Sakurai asked... onto sentence [3]....
[3] is beating around the bush some more. onto sentence [4]....
[4] is more clever beating around the bush...or....with the way it is worded...could be a hint asking Nintendo if THEY could reveal Megaman and not Nintendo... Hence the "if WE can put Megaman in Super Smash Bros." onto [5]....
[5] is a sort of hint at Nintendo to reveal Megaman. they are waiting for the "call..."
What "call?" The call that Inafune has you believing asking for permission to use Megaman....
OR....
The "call" to come out and confirm Megaman?
All I am saying is this...
From my analysis of the statement he made, there is no definite answer, and there won't be. Why won't there be? Simple; Nintendo does not want Megaman to be revealed yet, so they asked Inafune to not reveal him. Anyone who asks you to hold a secret, and you are loyal to that, you will not reveal it....
You will just simply "lie" to throw them off course.
and that my friends, at least from my conclusion, is EXACTLY what is going on. After all, Sega has lied about Sonic...
Why on Earth would Inafune, the great mind behind one of the biggest mascots next to Sonic and Mario, not be contacted by Sakurai, the great mind behind the one franchise where all key Nintendo mascots over the years do battle?
It's simple.... Inafune has been contacted, and he just simply lied to throw everyone off...
It's marketing strategy to the definition. That is all.