So I have been munching on this game and trying to figure out who would be the final two scum and we have finally come to the impasse in the game where there will be no real way for the final member of the mafia to win and the SK pretty much has no option, but to concede at this juncture as well considering we have the game in a pretty clear line of sight. 33.3% of the player base has been cleared with the other 33.3% making up uncleared town in two slots and 33.3% making up the final group as Villains (honestly, I want to replace the vocabulary for scum in my diction so I would rather just use villains from now on haha ^_^"")
If I could take a quick second to just highlight some key points that I feel would aid us all*.
*minus the Villains but haha ^^"
33.3% Cleared Town:
J
LoneKonWolf
These two slots have been mod-confirmed town by the PRs listed at the beginning of the game. To suggest that someone else could be a vig at this point would only spell certain doom for that slot making it a "he said/she said" lynch line of one after the other. A villain at this point in the game could not reside in either of these slots due to lack of CC and if a CC were to occur, the light of suscpicion would more than likely fall on that slot, thusly being suicide for that party.
66.6% (Uncleared Town/Villain)
Shishœ
BarDull
Pokechu
Moydow
In order to win the game in easy mode, we must oust one of the villains today. Hard Mode is if we accidentally ML again and therefore lose a doc and it begins risky with NAs.
Though I would like this to be the options for the Day and Night and I feel we would be able to come about in a sense of figuring out who the final people are. It seems on everyone's lists has Moydow as the most likely candidate to be a villainess in every angle we look at her slot. *Sans Moydow* The best option at this juncture unless anyone has a better solution would be to have Moydow's slot ousted and then we have our bullets together at one slot as to avoid mis-shooting/multiple deaths.
The three slots that we need to be discussing about shooting this evening is going to be between the remaining 3 of Shish/Bard/Poke. Which would would people care to aim at for toNight since we can garuntee a shot going off since we can both aim at one person and confirm other facts through the rules of the game/NAs. If y'all could use this format to help me and Kon get a better idea of who we should be aiming at toNight, that would be a great help! I'll start.
J/Kon Shoot: Bardull
Example and also the slot I would care to aim my gun at toNight.
Let me go into this a bit, the reason I am choosing Bard is because I am honestly a lot more comfortable with the other two slots while also failing to see the mass opinion of Bard being read as town this whole game. I do agree that he has had some posts in his favor, but to dismiss the slot for the majority of the game when he has more or less just been sitting in the back and poking at the fires of the game without getting much in terms of his own hands into the fray. One could argue this playstyle seems to be of a person just adding good insight to already formulating opinions of the game. There has been no real reads from Bard's slot besides his buddying of Shish which has been justly reciprocated by that slot. I have a very hard time getting a read on Bard where I see Shish as actually trying to look at the game and figure out who the final member of the scum-team is.
Bard: "Your sense of Towniness is pretty skewed"
You: *votes for him*
And how can I even trust your word? Afaik, you're the scum. I know I'm a Doc and I've been constantly reading Bard as Town. And if he is, that would leave you and Moydow as the remaining scum.
Posts like this read to me as genuine from Shish because it's an example of their playstyle throughout the game. Shish has been a read of mine that I have been banking on being town and also believing that they are a slot truly trying to figure out the game even though it has been confusing at times. I do want to put my faith in Shish so I want to at least take this slot into the next Phase of the game and I will personally not be aiming my shot here. I would much rather look at the other 3 slots in the game as I feel that would be the highest chance of popping the final villains. To add onto this point, another post that points an arrow in my line of thinking is here:
Wait, no, hold on, a thought just popped up in my head.
I think it's pretty clear to everyone you and I have a certain history, Chu. I'm remembering what vaan said all the way back during the NZ invasion Mafia, that he left us both alive because he expected me to jump on you during LyLo.
And this went on and on, we lost FE7 Mafia because I jumped on you yet again, for example.
And besides, if you were scum, you'd want me gone asap for the same reasons, unless I've actually been protected these two Nights.
Unvote
I might be wrong about this and this may cost Town the game once again but at least I'm not gonna **** up the exact same way again.
To me, this reads as a town member who has come to the point of questioning everything and everyone of their thoughts while the game could very well come down to one vote in the game therefore ending the game. I want to believe Shish as town and will be moving forward thinking as such unless someone can prove their actions are coming from that of a malicious source of trying to end the game through deceit and deception.
Now, I would like to take a look at Bard/Moy's posts below because I think it gives a good insight as well as to why I am feeling these slots lean more in the direction of holding the final two members of the villain teams. I'm just going to go in order of their posts.
I'm not sure how NAR resolves but it's likely it would end in a draw if it came down to vig vs. goon. It's a pretty uphill battle and hinges on the SK's survival for another day. I don't think the mafia/SK can joint-win in this set up based on the SK's win condition.
Anyway, regarding the current situation:
Currently the narrative I'm seeing is that Pokechu/Moydow are in cahoots. I haven't had much reason to suspect Shish, although it's possible that Ura/Opossum explicitly took aim at Kantrip to protect Shish from getting lynched. I doubt this is the case though based on Shish's reaction to Opossum/Ura's approach on D1 if memory serves. Meanwhile, Pokechu seems to be vigorously defending Moydow and very quick to pair myself and Shish, not even bothering to question whether or not the vigilantes got a bingo on the SK. I think it is likely that Pokechu has come to the conclusion that Moydow needs to be kept alive in order for him to win, albeit the roles are interchangeable. Or maybe Pokechu finds comfort in Moydow as an ally? I really don't know.
Either way, him jumping to conclusions without considering all the possibilities is eerie to me and comes off as too bizarre if he's Town.
I would be interested in hearing Moydow's input on Pokechu's behavior though as well as why Moydow is quick to trust Pokechu. I'm curious to understand the foundations of their trust.
Bard is personally my bet for the final mafia goon member. The way he discusses the situation in this post feels the most logical when coming from the perspective of the final Mafia Members shoes.
Let's talk about the bright blue section first with this post. The reason I say his words seem to come from someone thinking of how to win from the Goon's mindset rather than the Town's mindset. He started the post with speculation about the Night Action Resolution results while looking at the detailing of the Vig vs. The Goon. This is strange considering the perspective of conversation today has been focused around finding the Serial Killer. The bell seems to ring more true when thinking of this line through a Goonie mindset vs. a Townie mindset.
Now this is a point I wanted to highlight in the game because it is the thing I have the strongest memory of when talking about Bard's play. The thing the sticks out the most is his consistent alliance with Shish this game. I see a bit of a natural flow of the two at the beginning of the game with Shish's interactions, though they feel more natural from their side of the conversation where it seems Bard came into the game knowing that he would be more than likely looking at buddying that slot. When looking at Bard from the perspective of the villain, it honestly makes a lot of his Shish interactions seem a lot more clear.
While looking at this game, I feel we have pairs of the final members that will finalize the game as whole.
I feel one of Shish/Bard hold a Villain
I feel one of Moy/Poke hold a Villain
I feel both of J/Kon are full of #Swag
That is why I am feeling I needed to talk about both of those reads and showcase those posts to show a little bit as to how I am thinking.
Let's move onto the final two of the game then. I wish to start with Poke because honestly it is a small and simple reason.
oh wait... we can't shoot the SK, I forgot
RIP
Out of the four remaining, Poke is the least threat to us all as a whole because we seemed to have caught Poke in a little tell of not-SK. Poke could feasibly be the final Goon and that could make sense. For SK? Not really gonna convince me of this one based on their play and also the little tells throughout the game through lack of knowledge about the game. As someone who literally had a similar thing happen to them yesterDay, I can empathize and also see the line of thought from a Townie/Goonie perspective for Poke. Though I do feel like Poke is more than likely the other final town when grouping the four people together in the game. I definitely do not want to look at Poke for toDay because we can probably confirm they are at least not-SK with others TBD.
Personal opinion, Poke is a town-read of mine. I do have them as 4th place though in the current standing so it's not at all strong compared to Kon or even my Shish, though it is stronger than Bard/Moy
For what it's worth, the fact we have two players essentially confirmed as town (and therefore not lynch targets) makes it mathematically impossible for the goon to outright win - the best they can do is a draw. They need to hope today is a mislynch (3-1-1), the night claims two townies but they survive (1-1-1), and then hope the SK gets lynched the next day (1 town vs. 1 mafia, both shoot each other in the night, therefore... nobody wins?). Basically the goon has little reason to bother fighting on. If it were me I'd just surrender at this point and leave the remaining players with no help or information - the odds would be too heavily stacked against me for me to want to bother playing on.
This also of course means we need to ensure today is not a mislynch, if we wish the town to win - a mislynch leads to only one series of events leading to a town win, compared to the draw I already mentioned, and two situations where the SK wins. I encourage us all to take a step back and very carefully re-examine all of the evidence available to us.
Moydow has a very interesting perspective when looking at this post because it does not make any sense to believe Moydow is the goon from the way I am choosing to look at things. Moydow is literally telling the goon to come out and admit defeat and let the town and SK figure the game out and literally says this line:
Moy said:
If it were me I'd just surrender at this point and leave the remaining players with no help or information - the odds would be too heavily stacked against me for me to want to bother playing on.
This just rings as literally trying to plead with the other goon to come forward and admit defeat so they can be lynched and ousted from the game. Whenever I read through this post over and over, it keep going into a very mechanical analysis of why the Goon should just surrender and let the town and SK battle it out which reads as insincere villain-hunting and also more like a way to feign generating content to look like villain-hunting when in actuality it looks like Moy is more curious as to who the Goon is rather than finding the SK which is honestly the Town's #1 priority at the moment. I do not really see Moy as popping up as town and if the slot does pop town, I will be pretty stunned considering that means that two of Shish/Poke/Bard are the final villains and figuring out that makes my stomach queasy.
I hope this helps explain a bit of my headspace for the current time and also helps finalize the game. I just feel this completes the puzzle though at the end of the day, this is just one guy's opinion on what I am believing to be the true nature behind people's posts.
Vote: Moydow
J/Kon Shoot: Bardull
I am off tomorrow so I will be here to respond to things and also discuss other avenues. Though let's get this started because we do have a lot of time to discuss so I would rather start the day big and go from there. :D