BoTastic!
Smash Master
We left it at 70:30 >>
Let's put it this way. A majority of the fight is going to be fought on stage. Marth has all the tools necessary to keep Mario outside his range. Mario's best attempt of getting in is probably fireball-->approach but that is easily solved with perfect shield the fireball/swatt it, an dolphin slash if Mario goes for a grab. Because Marth dominates the on-stage game so much, Mario is going to have a difficult time knocking Marth off in the first place, especially in comparison to Marth. Both of them can gimp each other pretty well so off stage game rounds out to about even(Marth just needs to space a fair, bair, or nair off stage and it's a stock down for Mario. Mario has F.L.U.D.D. and cape).
That's why it's not a 60:40 match-up for sure. It's a pretty big advantage.
I'd call it 67.5:32.5 but that's an annoying number. Imo it could go either way but I'd go with 70:30 just because I think Mario is almost equally in danger while gimping if he goes for the cape on Marth, and can get fair'd before he can aerial/cape Marth or stage spiked(though I suppose if Marth isn't careful he can get stage spiked as well).
Fludd is highly neglected. >> It's a big help in getting inside Marth's range and putting aside his Fair.
65:35