Twitchybanana
Smash Cadet
- Joined
- Oct 17, 2015
- Messages
- 70
AAAnd I tagged an actual user named mod. Whoops.
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I'm Vanilla townie
I'd really like to know who this is so that there is some context to this action, but I won't poke for an identity.
I'll ask the really obvious question: why would you out this and give scum a reason to narrow down where our PRs are, assuming we have any?
He literally backtracks his claim in the bolded. Now, why don't you prove to me how I was lying?1. We're 4 days into day 1 and there's almost no discussion, this guarantees discussion
2. Mafia can't know if I'm really a vanilla townie or a PR whose just claiming to be one, therefore this discussion can't really narrow anything down
3. So this generates conversation without negatively impacting town and at best throws WIFOM at the mafia to deal with
Honestly, I just thought about my and Polish's interactions, and decided I was incorrect. There's more detail in the big post. Clever scum because your methodology and intent seem good, but your conclusions do not. That would mean, if you're scum, you're faking town intent behind bad reads that take pressure off your cohorts.Alright Twitch. Now that you re-read, can you answer what exactly made you switch off Polish? You had Polish as scum yesterday, so I want to know what exactly made you change, and when. Also, why do you always say I may be clever scum, but not clever town? Why do you strongly dislike my reads?
I am still interested in Barman's and Aquas views.
It's not something town would do.Yes, because blatant lying is something scum would do in a thread where people can easily go back and turn the dial to see if I'm telling the truth or not.
Maybe if I was lying about ability use, you'd have a case. Let's turn back time a bit.
Gladly.He literally backtracks his claim in the bolded. Now, why don't you prove to me how I was lying?
Right here. This goes on to become your rational for voting him. Yet, you refuse to acknowledge the plethora of posts demonstrating that it did not stop discussion in theory nor in practice, and that he didn't hurt town. At all.You immediately dismantled the potential of your own discussion by changing your claim via reason 2, though.
If you want to claim VT and cause discussion to occur as a result of claiming VT, you don't provide reasonable doubt for the legitimacy of your claim. You sit on the claim and wait for actual discussion to occur. All he accomplished was explaining why what he did was being pro-town while not accomplishing anything with the claim because he immediately provided for reasonable doubt.It's not something town would do.
Gladly.
Right here. This goes on to become your rational for voting him. Yet, you refuse to acknowledge the plethora of posts demonstrating that it did not stop discussion in theory nor in practice, and that he didn't hurt town. At all.
That's all it took? Also, I'm not sure what detail would show your change, since that happened after the day started. You had a town read on him from the beginning of the day, which doesn't make sense without some *spark*. Have you ever given a read or mentioned Morosemist yesterday at all?Honestly, I just thought about my and Polish's interactions, and decided I was incorrect.
Gives reads on Polish, Orange, and Prota. Never interacts or mentions others like Morosemist.I'm still in the middle of page 2, but this looks like scum team play, or at least one scum in it.
1. Take thread control
2. Have high post count, made largely of meaningless discussion.
3. Get everyone to agree that we lynch based off of activity
4. Profit.
I dislike both of them, but Polishnapkin has incited unnecessary WIFOM and confusion.
Vote: Polishnapkin
He is keeping his options open by saying that Ran made it easier for him to swallow a policy lynch of him. Yet still arguing against it. Not keeping a hard stance.I absolutely agree with this, and I actually like the slot less after its most recent post. That said, a policy lynch is still a bad idea unless it's literally either that or a NL..
This comes out of left field. Never did he have an interaction that may make him change his mind, and never did he say anything to that liking. This is the most damning piece of evidence against him. This is the epitome of faking.Polishnapkin I don't intend to push your slot toDay, and hopefully we can work together.
now then, to reread.
Here, he states he strongly dislikes my conclusions, without having no strong conclusions himself. This is really an odd thing to say, unless you already have a differing opinion. He never intended to genuinely push Polish.You seem to have town intent, but I strongly dislike your conclusions. You're null town, but I'd be unsurprised if you're clever scum. Lets have a chat, shall we? (I have to go now, but I intend to interrogate you later.)
He says this because he simply disagrees with me. He states that as if he is the one who has good reads above all...Clever scum because your methodology and intent seem good, but your conclusions do not. That would mean, if you're scum, you're faking town intent behind bad reads that take pressure off your cohorts.
This is all it took to convince him to do a 180 on Polish. There was no interaction, and no show of him changing his mind in thread. As you can see in his argument against him, he does not talk about that again. What makes his original argument invalid, now that he sees him as town? Well, you can be sure he did not think of that, since he isn't thinking about it. He dropped it and gave Polish his full support for no rational reason.Honestly, I just thought about my and Polish's interactions, and decided I was incorrect. There's more detail in the big post.
We have already explained that stating mafia could not determine whether or not he was VT is not providing reasonable doubt for his claim. You chose to ignore it. Likewise, I am confused why you intended to dissect the claim. It is a Vanilla Town claim, the most basic role in existence. There is no specific deciphering of this role, merely whether or not you believe the player making the claim is town. It is the role equivalent of saying, "I am town, don't lynch me." Your intention to decipher it makes you seem far more focused on roles and less on the alignment of the players behind it. As a result, I would like to see more about the intentions behind the action. I will not accept any defaulting to "this is scummy because I say so." You have failed in explaining why.If you want to claim VT and cause discussion to occur as a result of claiming VT, you don't provide reasonable doubt for the legitimacy of your claim. You sit on the claim and wait for actual discussion to occur. All he accomplished was explaining why what he did was being pro-town while not accomplishing anything with the claim because he immediately provided for reasonable doubt.
No one, as far as I can remember, actually discussed the legitimacy of his claim to any serious degree except for me, because he immediately dismantled the potential for discussion by providing reasonable doubt.
It's like a player who claims a gun, then in the exact next post says he actually might not have a gun, but claimed as such to get discussion going. You're never going to look good for making that kind of play, ever, regardless of what your intentions may have been, but if you're going to make that play, it makes sense to stick to your proverbial guns and wait until actual discussion has occurred before providing reasonable doubt.
I've already explained this concept before, so your confidence is amusing at best.
It is providing reasonable doubt; stating scum that don't know for sure as to whether or not he is telling the truth is exactly the same as telling Town that he might not be telling the truth. Are you telling me that he played the gambit atrociously?We have already explained that stating mafia could not determine whether or not he was VT is not providing reasonable doubt for his claim. You chose to ignore it. Likewise, I am confused why you intended to dissect the claim. It is a Vanilla Town claim, the most basic role in existence. There is no specific deciphering of this role, merely whether or not you believe the player making the claim is town. It is the role equivalent of saying, "I am town, don't lynch me." Your intention to decipher it makes you seem far more focused on roles and less on the alignment of the players behind it. As a result, I would like to see more about the intentions behind the action. I will not accept any defaulting to "this is scummy because I say so." You have failed in explaining why.
I desire testimonials of the above three before aiding in the death of unfruitful, but I might per the reluctance and sudden knee-jerk reaction of the Polish-nerd to vote in my direction.Summary for those who skim:
1. He never interacts with Morose or others, only with Polish, and gives reads on Polish, Orange, and Aqua.
2. He keeps his options open on Ran, while arguing against it in the same token.
3. His #205 comes out of left field, and 180s on his strong stance of Polish without any notice or good reason.
4. His #210 States he strongly dislikes my conclusions without having any strong conclusions himself.
5. Stalls many times, and hides behind Polish's push to support it, and votes Morose. (Who he had not even interacted with to develop a read)
6. His stalling and weak reasons to support his switch seem like lying, and I can see through it and I think others can too.
Unvote; Vote: TwitchyBanana
@BarmanUK
Aquariusboy
OrangeXhtml
Morosemist
Because what he was doing was either overtly stupid or a typo, and in both cases it showed he still didn't care about the game. I wanted to know which, and if somehow not a typo, why vote with one of his claimed scum.Aquaboy: #153
"Why vote with me" Why do you ask this, as if you were leading the push in the first place? You also were voting along with Twitch. Who is your leading candidate for today?
Townread Maven for his actions, I stand by there being no scum intent there and still think so. I feel like I've had a good history of reading him on this sort of thing in the past. (I'd like for him to post to actually let me back that up more, but he might need replacing which would deflate my read on him)Since you gave a defense here, how did you read Barven and Moreso at the time? How about now?
Morose, do you have reads on anyone else besides BarMaven over the course of all that's occurred in the game so far?If you want to claim VT and cause discussion to occur as a result of claiming VT, you don't provide reasonable doubt for the legitimacy of your claim. You sit on the claim and wait for actual discussion to occur. All he accomplished was explaining why what he did was being pro-town while not accomplishing anything with the claim because he immediately provided for reasonable doubt.
No one, as far as I can remember, actually discussed the legitimacy of his claim to any serious degree except for me, because he immediately dismantled the potential for discussion by providing reasonable doubt.
It's like a player who claims a gun, then in the exact next post says he actually might not have a gun, but claimed as such to get discussion going. You're never going to look good for making that kind of play, ever, regardless of what your intentions may have been, but if you're going to make that play, it makes sense to stick to your proverbial guns and wait until actual discussion has occurred before providing reasonable doubt.
I've already explained this concept before, so your confidence is amusing at best.
I take it you've revised your working theory to Polish/Twitch scumteam at this point?I feel better about OrangeXHtml. Seeing his response, I get he has a foot in mouth syndrome, and get a newbie town vibe from. My only problem was his entrance, and he has been posting consistently. I can understand that he may feel lost, and it's understandable. I also had found a better lead for today.
Behold: The case on Twitchybanana:
Gives reads on Polish, Orange, and Prota. Never interacts or mentions others like Morosemist.
#123
Here he states that Morose is missing Twitch's point, which should show that he wants people to be convinced of his 'case' on Polish. Yet that's the last you hear of him talking to others about it. This feels more like a feint, to seem like he is irritated and urging others to follow through, but never does.
He is keeping his options open by saying that Ran made it easier for him to swallow a policy lynch of him. Yet still arguing against it. Not keeping a hard stance.
This comes out of left field. Never did he have an interaction that may make him change his mind, and never did he say anything to that liking. This is the most damning piece of evidence against him. This is the epitome of faking.
Here, he states he strongly dislikes my conclusions, without having no strong conclusions himself. This is really an odd thing to say, unless you already have a differing opinion. He never intended to genuinely push Polish.
Secondly, he states I am Null town, or may be clever scum. I feel this is scum who is threatened by my presence, and has to add that to seed doubt on my slot.
--------------------------------------------------------
Intermission. Take a break:
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He says this because he simply disagrees with me. He states that as if he is the one who has good reads above all...
#214
Stalling, promises a re-read.
#217
Stalling for his re-read.
#231
Stalling, and apology for not fulfilling his promise.
#233
Here, Polish makes his move, on Morosemist. He also gives a reads list above, and changes his read on me from nulltown to town, without any note in between. Odd to make that jump so suddenly, as if to appease me.
#239
Twitch finally comes back, and follows through. It reeks of waiting for Polish to make a move so he can 1+ him. Never did he build up to this, and never did he even try to read or interact with Morosemist.
This is all it took to convince him to do a 180 on Polish. There was no interaction, and no show of him changing his mind in thread. As you can see in his argument against him, he does not talk about that again. What makes his original argument invalid, now that he sees him as town? Well, you can be sure he did not think of that, since he isn't thinking about it. He dropped it and gave Polish his full support for no rational reason.
The only plausible explanation I can think of, is that 1) He's pushing (weakly, for 'wifom and confusion') after being pushed by Polish to 'step forward'. Next:And you. What have you to say to cover your absence? You are ever watching and never involved. I must have you step forward.
vote: Twitchybanana
He states this in the post as he votes Polish. This is his first observation. Yet consider, 1) Polish started the dialogue, which was not conducive to scumhunting and 2) Orange was pulled into it, so it isn't his fault if it looks like a 'buddy connection'.I'm still in the middle of page 2, but this looks like scum team (Orange and Polish) play, or at least one scum in it.
Here, we have a similar read change that had no impetus to cause him to change. (None that I remember seeing)Orange, I'm liking you a bit more as of late. Care to weigh in?
Later on, he still is interested in hearing me talk about Orange, even though he likes him too now. He is willing to turn on Orange, yet remains stubborn on Polish for no reason.This is kinda grimy. I'll have to re-read orange.
The underlined here are exact opposites of the opinions Twitchy claimed to have at the time of the events in each case just a few pages ago in D1, and arguably each is an outright defense of the slot. Enough of an extreme switch that I'd actually consider maybe something happened in the night if it weren't for the existence of this quote:Kappa
This is kinda grimy. I'll have to re-read orange.
Can we see a proper readlist from yourself? I'd like to compare and contrast.
Page 2 discussion was meaningless, but at least it got the thread going. I'd argue that his page 4 does show some town intent. To me, it sounds like he actually believes what he's saying/it's not faked.
...No. He posted a pretty good amount out of everyone. You can't blame him for not just spamming the thread to page 8 -- further, he did nothing to inhibit posting. You can't blame him for that one.
I'm town reading Aqua. Dealing with how we decide to lynch is rather important to scum hunting, and I don't see scumminess from a majority of ones posts being defense, given that he did actually use his vote.
Talk to me about orange. Outside of the misrepresenting he did, how is he scum?
You seem to have town intent, but I strongly dislike your conclusions. You're null town, but I'd be unsurprised if you're clever scum. Lets have a chat, shall we? (I have to go now, but I intend to interrogate you later.)
making that seem less plausible.Precisely. Which is why it's safe to assume Napkin doesn't know ****. Polishnapkin That's right, isn't it?
This was a good conversation-starter, albeit in the wrong direction. After 2 in the phase and nearly no action, I feel like something of this caliber had to happen. With that said, Polish seemed to have a superiority complex as he was rejecting clear evidence against him being Leviathan. This may have been a measure to avoid backtracking, but being caught in a lie (no matter how small) applies a LOT of pressure to that person. I feel like Polish reacted to the pressure of his fake identity fairly badly by flat-out refuting evidence based upon his own word and then agreeing not to talk about it, but I start to like him better as time goes on.Greetings. I am Leviathan. To those that remember me, I require no introduction, but doubtless there are those among you who have not heard my legend.
Gone are the days that titans walked upon this earth and the few that remain have lost their teeth. I have stirred from my long dormant state to remind all those that have forgotten the power of a titan in its full glory. It has been many moons since I last have entered one of your contests but I am not blind to the struggles of DGamesia's residents. I now sit in judgment of each of you. I intend to judge fairly and honestly, but know this: I have come to win.
OrangeXhtml You have already given me your true name. What would you have me do with it?
I look forward to the chance of playing against familiar faces. Although it has only been months, it has felt like eons since I have encountered them.
And here is the hugely debated post. I feel like he just assumed that "lynch the man with the least to say" would be accepted if there was a clear scum, but not explicitly stating it caused him to almost get lynched D1.Premise the First is simply that: any individual that holds silent their tongue will be forced underground to the silence of death.
Premise the Second is that it is no boon to town to reveal the faces behind the masks provided by our host. Our gain is slight compared to the advantages it affords the enemy and I would prefer to silence any discussion about it. It is an ungainly distraction best left to the foolish.
Premise the Third is a proposition: should this discussion not reach eight pages of comments, we lynch the man with the least to say.
I like Barman in the re-read a lot more than I did throughout D1. I didn't see where he was coming from with that line of questioning in D1, but upon a re-read, I can see what avenue he was perusing. The fact he was willing to persue it speaks to how much he didn't want the thread to remain silent, in addition to this:Is this post just entirely confused? Does him being this confused over it mean anything?
Or did this guy really just think he got outed as mafia already? Why would he assume the other role was a cop and immediately think the Leviathan stuff was real and relating to it?
Vote: OrangeXhtml
I actually see this as being a useful avenue
I still disagree with the methods that he used in this post (claiming VT and then instantly denouncing it as WIFOM just in case somebody didn't catch it), but we needed this a lot to boost conversation and now I see why he did what he did.I'm really not ok with the way this game has been going, first I really doubt that's Leviathan and more then that who cares?
The anonymity looks like it's going to really hurt RVS so I'm going to roleclaim. I'm Vanilla townie
I still think we should have gauged content vs quantity, but Ravenous ended up being the person to contribute least in both.Simply he who has spoken the fewest number of times; you should find that number underneath the man's nametag on the right. That is enough for my purposes.
So even if I said I was ready to face whatever consequences might befall me, you would refuse to reveal? That doesn't sound like much of a choice to me.@Protateus
Never was it my intention to allow anyone unmasked. I thought to draw others into the conversation, but was met with resounding silence. As I said once before, I have found I must be more direct.
No thanks, I'll make my own decisions on when guessing an identity is appropriate for reads and when it isn't.
Do you still stand by this theory, or do you no longer think it is likely?I'm still in the middle of page 2, but this looks like scum team play, or at least one scum in it.
1. Take thread control
2. Have high post count, made largely of meaningless discussion.
3. Get everyone to agree that we lynch based off of activity
4. Profit.
I dislike both of them, but Polishnapkin has incited unnecessary WIFOM and confusion. Vote: Polishnapkin
At this point in time (end of page 2) I've got a town read on Protateus. Orange and Polish are both full of crap and/or scum.
That was pretty sudden, based off of how little you actually had on Barman. Was this intended to be a push so you could read a reaction from him, or was it supposed to be an actual lynch suggestion?I'm content with lynching Barman this day phase, unless there's someone deliberately not contributing much.
To be honest, I don't fault Polish at ALL for this read list. I agree that it didn't have much content to it, but then again, there wasn't much content to work with for most of the list by the start of page 4 (which, mind you, was supposed to be the end of the phase).Happy Holiday to all you Americans.
I do believe we have come far enough to make decisions as our day is coming to a close. I am going to put before you my thoughts on every slot in this game as well as the direction I believe we should go. We must consolidate our votes, gentlemen, so, at the very end, I will propose a lynch pool for us to narrow down our choices.
1] PolishNapkin
Town. Will likely end up in lynch pool courtesy of the Nervous Fruit and his watery lad.
2] Corps phoenix
The Impersonator barely escapes our recommended policy lynch. He's done very little as you can see for yourself by checking his three total posts, though slightly more than our recommended policy lynch.
3] T Twitchybanana
This is an extremely interesting slot. This slot's posts comprise of a case upon myself, a defense of said case, and comments upon his presence. His case itself is very weak: it assumes ill intentions from OrangeXhtml and myself and, all in all, is rather reactionary. He has responded to what has been in the thread by posting down a vote in protest to policy lynches; however, we have seen him make no moves to further any reads of his own.
4] OrangeXhtml
Ah, the fellow from Orange. Once more, he is nothing if not earnest. Slightly too gung ho but one of my favorite slots this game. He is quite obviously trying to generate content and I find myself wanting to lynch him least out of any slot in the game thus far.
5] Aquariusboy
Upon first read, this slot seemed far more interested in identities than I was comfortable with. On second read, I realized that it was not a matter of suspicious motivations as I originally thought but rather a slot attempting to get others to talk about the game when there was precious little to discuss. Our views about our reads are quite obviously different, but I would prefer not to see this slot dead.
6] @Protateus
This is another slot that I would not want to see dead at this juncture. I do like that he's poking around and trying to find things. I am concerned about his lack of a vote thus far though, and I do not have a strong idea of his direction at this time.
7] @Ranivorousbeast
Ah, you glorious, glorious man. How could anyone hope to match your content? Your sparkling input of one simple post is a magnificent example of mafia play and the rest of us commoners would do well to follow your example.
...I jest.
This slot has a post count of one. His content is nil and he is an example of the plague that has stricken DGames for years. If I would have my way, I would see this slot make significant contribution in the next 48 hours or have its head on the block.
8] @BarmanUK / @Maven89
I have no issues with this slot. I think he is likely town. I do not think it likely scum would claim VT on page 2, even if the claim itself was non-committal. I have no major problems with him thus far and I would not lynch him at this time.
9] Morosemist
This is the hardest read amongst this list, not including those who have given us nothing to read. His case on the Barman Maven is laughable. Aside from some armchair mafia posts in the beginning (my claim to be Leviathan to be null, Orange's detective work to be null, etc.), his entire focus is upon the poor bartender. The basis of his case is purely an opinion that a VT claim early in the game is anti-town. Personally, I find no fault in it. It is too early to call his fixation tunnel vision as not many avenues have been presented. That said, I do not like his content thus far, but he is at least providing content. His presence alone is appreciated, as other slots cannot claim the same.
Now we have to decide where to lynch toDay. The pool that seems like is thus: Corps Phoenix and RaniverousBeast are the resident inactive lynches, while Twitchybanana, BarmanUK/Maven, and myself are the present leading cases. I would like every member of this game to start pushing their directions and shrinking this pool down to a couple of targets. Everyone needs to put their hand on the table at this juncture as deadline is approaching sooner than imagined.
vote RanivorousBeast
I don't think I can read this post with town intent behind it, other than a really frustrated, confused town that has absolutely no clue why people aren't blindly following reads that have little to no legitimate substance behind them.If Barman is scum, you all can screw yourselves. Dismissing his non-commitment as if it's nothing is super lame. I am not going to say anything more on the matter since I'm not interested in convoluting the thread.
Also, way to praise my play after calling it deliberate ****, Polishnapkin .
/out
been rather busy as of late and i keep forgettin i'm in this ****
i'm up for a lynch because i haven't been here? that's a pretty lame reason considering the fact it is a cop out since no one is looking to get their hands dirty.
unvote
vote: polishnapkin
his 126 is enough to lynch him for based off of no reads in that post, calling everyone "interesting" and then moving to vote myself when he named other avenues they wished to pursue but copped out to the inactive lynch.
barmaven and prota are fine in my book. i don't care for the orange/aqaurias pal thing going on and reeks of something fishy.
I completely agree with this post.Let's pretend Polish never posted the concept of a policy lynch due to inactivity. Then what would we be left with?
My stuff, which most people put as being null, and didn't result in that much
And that's it. Maybe something about someone claiming to be someone else, but honestly I'm thinking it's some player with bad meta baggage who believes if they took the persona of another person they would attain good meta-baggage, then at the end they'd pull their mask off and we'd all realize they were good the whole time. That's clearly not what's happening now but I don't see it as likely to be scum motivated, since so many of us are experienced here (at least in Dgames in general) the chance of us just following a "leivathan" because "they're old school" is nilch and any player who would know of the account would know that.
With just that, the only thing left would be a no lynch (horrible), or we lynch someone who hasn't posted a thing. The later gives us some information, and with nothing scummy being done it's the best option.
I think anyone would have suggested a policy lynch at this point, and I don't think we should jump on Polish for being the one to do so. If it wasn't him it'd be someone else.
And "not playing the game" doesn't make the person townie at all. He could not be playing as mafia just as much as he could not be playing as town.
I absolutely agree with this, and I actually like the slot less after its most recent post. That said, a policy lynch is still a bad idea unless it's literally either that or a NL.
This is a whole lot of nothing. I'd actually like to discuss this with you, so I'll break it down into very simple easily digestible points. I'd appreciate it if you respond in organized and plain english, because for me, this exchange will cement or redefine my read on you, and half the game should not be figuring out what you mean.
1. Ran's content, or lack thereof, is null.
To me, (other people in thread -- please weigh in on this one) Ran's inactivity is neither scummy nor townie. This feels like someone who just isn't playing the game. He's inactive-null.
2. Lynching him is only slightly beneficial for the town at best.
2 a. If we lynch him and he flips scum... Cool. We're back to square 1 + a bit of WIFOM from his one post.
2 b. If we lynch him and he flips town, no one is at fault because it was a "policy lynch". We're kinda back to square 1 minus a townie and plus one very irritated banana.
2 c. Thus, even the best possible result of lynching him is just meh.
3. Not lynching him is far more likely to benefit the town.
3 a. We don't lynch him and he gets replaced. Then the replacement becomes active and gives us more to go on, as well as increasing the overall activity of the game. Depending on the slot's alignment and the replacement's skill, this could lead to a plethora of different outcomes, but all of them will give additional information to the town -- definitely worth it.
3 b. We don't lynch him and he becomes active. Like the above option, but less Janky because we don't have to deal with replacement baggage. This allows us to cement a read on him, and either lynch obviscum tomorrow or avoid a catastrophic mislynch.
3 c. We don't lynch him and he stays inactive. At this point, I'd actually be willing to lynch him barring some obviscum elsewhere in the thread. Regardless, we get more information than we would if we lynched him.
4.The risk/reward ratio leans heavily toward letting him live.
Is he mod confirmed scum? No? Then the above analysis makes it obvious it is in the town's best interest not to policy lynch him. We lynch most scummy, not most null.
1. Ran's inactivity felt really scummy to me based on:
Considering he failed to visit the thread at all after this, what part of his content seemed null?Ran did a random vote post-RVS to prevent himself from being modkilled or replaced, left for another couple days, seemed miffed that nobody was defending his slot when he got back, kneejerked Polish for a completely garbage reason, implied a scumteam between Polish and Aquarious (without giving a reason), said Pro and BarMaven were fine (without giving a reason), and ignored my questioning of his post afterwards. I think he's the scummiest at this point. Who do you think we should lynch, Twitchy?
2. a. If he flipped scum, we would have likely had only one Mafia and possibly one Indie left to deal with (I think 6v2v1 is decent balance (3 mafia would make a winning situation after a possible alpha strike D2, and I haven't played a game without an indie faction (other than Kingmaker)), so that's what I'm going with right now).
2. b. He's at fault for not posting, and we prevented the lynch of an active slot that could have prevented conversation. I thought he was scummy based on his content, so a combination of getting rid of a scum read and getting rid of dead weight seemed like a good idea at the time.
2. c. Thus, lynching Raniverous seemed like the logical decision.
3. a. The problem with this is we were already looking for a replacement. Assuming that we got two replacements (which would have been unlikely anyways), the chance of an inactive this game is ~22.22% (2/9 slots inactive, assuming we ignore the fact that Pro was gone for a few days, Aquarius has been in and out, and Moro seemed to have short bursts of high activity and then slightly longer periods of low activity). If I test the probability of getting at least one inactive out of the replacements, it would be 1-binompdf(2,.2222,0) which is equal to 39.5%. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't count on a 60% chance of getting an active replacement. It's likely, but not by much. Also, who would we lynch after this? You suggested Polish at the time, but how would you justify that when considering Barman's post on the policy lynch?
3. b. Are you really willing to say that someone might become active after posting 2 times in a 7 day phase, neither post proving that he had read the thread?
3. c. So you were willing to give him a normal phase and a half to be active, while he's not even trying to replace out?
4. You have failed to prove that the risk/reward leans heavily towards letting him live, and your reasoning is flawed.
Have to go march a couple parades, will be back Sunday.