That's what I thought too. Even if Dante doesn't make into base, at least now, there seems to be some vocal demand for him as a Smash character that he might have a shot at dlc.
After a good night of sleep, I came to a conclusion: the Dante leak is probably a fake.
From my point of view, here's what happened:
- On 16 July,
this random text leak appeared. The leak was a piggybacking of Vergeben's and included several out-of-the-box characters, including Dante. Note how his trailer supposedly included Lucina and Robin/Dark Robin aka Grima. This leak will be deconfirmed 3 weeks later, during the 8.8 Smash direct.
- Few days later, on 20 July,
a huge leak regarding Devil May Cry 5 appered on 4chan too. In following weeks, this leak confirmed several of his points, as I compiled
in my old post. That thread didn't have the tripcode, so there's apparently no way to confirm its always the same guy answering the various questions, but if you look at the timestamps you can cleary see the discussion went on for nearly 2 hours with several other (later confirmed) claims, so is safe to assume is always the same leaker.
- In the
second post of the leak there are tons of yet to be confirmed info, such as Vergil being part of the scrapped Season 2 for the (now dead) Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite. If you find it familiar, its because is the same leak Vergeben got wrong: he said the Season 2 was in the works, but was ultimately never released (maybe because the game itself was a failure). Among these info, the leaker said "I can verify that the supposed "leak" of Dante in Smash is true. I'm not really a Smash/Nintendo guy, but I've seen the trailer.". We don't know what was the actual "supposed leak", but I didn't find anything else other than
the first one, coincidentally the only one who gained some traction while having Dante in it, and appeared only 4 days prior.
- The leaker got questioned regarding Smash, and he later
described the whole trailer. What's important to note here are the following:
~ Slightly piggybacking the final smash (transform and combo the enemy like Wario or Little Mac vs. suck in a cinematic like Shulk or Megaman)
~ Described the same attire of the first leak, specifically the DMC4 one; the same one that won
the twitter pool from Hideki Kamiya (creator of both Dante and Bayonetta) back in February 2016, coincidentally when Smash Ultimate was in the works.
~ The trailer followed the same vibe of other trailers for newcomers, as following: CGI intro (where a Nintendo character get nearly killed) -> titlecard -> gameplay (ending with Final Smash) -> CGI outro. The point here is that text leak was after the Ridley one, but before the Simon and the King K. Rool. A pretty huge lucky guess.
~ The trailed included a "what I think is one of the Fire Emblem character" and later a single line of dialogue ("another CGI scene where the girl he protected asks him name"), something that happened with Simon+Ritcher trailer too ("Begone, monster! You don't belong to this world!"); it also included a "giant dragon", who could be Grima (fitting, if the female character is Lucina), Ridley (he still looks like a giant dragon) or the Rathalos, who at the time wasn't revealed yet. Another lucky guess? (I didn't included Bowser or Charizard because everyone would recognize them)
~ Included a lot a small details that you basically never see on other fake text trailers, such as: Gilgamesh mask appearing on Dante face when Gilgamesh is used; Pandora not included (it was mostly a ranged weapon, would be OP in smash); Lady as an Assist Trophy (like Alucard in the Simon trailer; again, wasn't revealed yet). How many times do you see that level of details in other fake trailers?
~ Apparently, a stage for Devil May Cry wasn't included in the trailer (unlike the Dracula Castle for Castlevania); that would fit the 103 stages theory, and Devil May Cry doesn't have iconic locations, aside maybe Mallet Island Castle and the Temen-ni-gru tower (both are castles with scary creatures in it, but not nearly as iconic as the Dracula Castle).
~ Worth of noting that we never, ever, got a character leaked by a trailer. Even if Devil May Cry often get leaked, that would be a leak without precedents.
- 6 August, enter Matt Walker (producer of Devil May Cry 5). In
this tweet he either teased a Smash news or genuinely sent a wrong tweet. From now on, the hell broke loose...
- ...especially because two days later
he tweeted a backpedaling "I know absolutely nothing about Smash". Something that will come useful in a moment.
- On 16 August, during the Capcom Confidential podcast, Matt Walker got randomly questioned about Dante for Smash. In the meanwhile, the DMC5 leak got a lot of traction due to legit info getting slowly revealed (and consequently confirmed) to the public.
His reaction was pretty odd, and the topic quickly changed. Maybe he slipped up, or maybe he was genuinely surprised.
- Few days later, on 24 August, Matt Walker
deconfirmed Dante while responding a tweet. Some say its a straight up deconfirm, for others he's just trying to shut down the leak to keep the surprise. Its important to remember the following:
~ if Dante isn't in Smash, its a weird way to deconfirm. Mostly because having your character featured in Smash is always a good thing, so the usual answer is "I don't know", so at least the fan can keep speculating.
~ Lying about upcoming projects is allowed when you're under NDA. It happens every time within the entertainament industry, even in the gaming world. Specifically, the same Matt Walker lied about DMC5 not being in the works, so not only its a thing that happen very often but this very producer already did it in a recent past.
~ Matt Walker claimed to
know nothing regarding Smash, and in the span of two weeks went to "know nothing" to
straight up deconfirming Dante, just right after the Dante leak gained a lot of traction. From then on, Dante has been widely considered deconfirmed in Smash speculation, for obvious reasons.
~ taking a no for a yes is never a good move, even if the guy is a known liar/troll
- On 11 September, in a random 4chan thread
this guy said Isabelle would be the next "newcomer" (not character or echo), and Dante being in the game. In this case its pretty obvious he's piggybacking
Vergeben claim that Ken and Incineroar will be in the game, he just swapped the unconfirmed Square-Enix Rep for a less speculated character. Another lucky guess, but this time from a different guy, but I bet we can easily find a lot of other "screencap this post!" fake leaks that turned out to be, well, fake.
- Then the
Smash Box theory sweep in, and that, if true, would basically deconfirm any other character, Dante included. As I'm writing this, even Vergeben
is looking for confirmation whatever is true or not.
~ while Vergeben proved to be legit, up until now, regarding Smash leaks, we have to remember that he doesn't have the complete info. He didn't know about King K. Rool, Ritcher, Chrom and Dark Samus. He may have hearded of other characters, but if he didn't announced them its because he's not sure about them, like for the supposed Square-Enix rep.
~ Vergeben said he knew
“half a dozen newcomers” left to be revealed, but he didn’t know who any of them were aside from Simon. If the box theory is right, we're missing one character from his claim (on top of the Square-Enix rep). (Simon+King K. Rool+Isabelle+Incineroar+Square-Enix Rep+???; Ken, Chrom and Dark Samus are echoes, not newcomers).
And here we are. But why is probably a fake?
Apophenia, mostly. While a lot of things seem to point at Dante inclusion, there's a small detail that make me think these coincidences are just, well, coincidences. And this small detail have a name: loz18.
For those who don't know him, loz18 is a guy who supposedly played the E3 Smash demo 20 hours prior the event, and leaked some details on gamefaq forum. From then on, he acted like a super duper insider with legit info regarding smash, but as time went on (and with the power of hindsight) everyone realized he's a fraud. But thanks to him, now smash speculation act like Skull Kid is basically a shoo-in for the game, just because he said he will be playable.
After this claim, smash speculation started one of the best history revisionism I've ever seen, along with the craziest theory the web ever hosted.
Ask anyone and they will tell you that:
- Skull Kid was wanted since Melee: but forgot to say "wanted" doesn't equal "hugely requested"; a single individual clamoring for him would make the statement technically true.
- Skull Kid is the most requested Legend of Zelda character: false. Impa, Pig Ganon, Midna and Wolf Link and even Ghirahim were more requested than him. Even in the recent
Rate Their Chances thread Impa was at 38.98% while Skull Kid only at 19.17%, not to mention the
old one (the one relevant during the ballot), where he was barely nominated. Hell, even Tetra and Toon Zelda scored better...
- Smash Ultimate cleary have a Heroes vs. Villains theme, so Skull Kid would be perfect for Young Link: even forgetting that even Young Link was more requested than Skull Kid, the Heroes vs. Villains was a fake leak that, by now, should already be considered debunked. We only have 2 HUGELY requested villains, the other are "normal Smash character". Unless Isabelle is an evil mastermind I'm unaware off...
- Skull Kid perform good in the ballot: first, you cannot know. Second, how? In the ballot, aside from joke votes (Goku, Shrek, anime character and so on), the clear winners were King K. Rool and Ridley. After them, all the veterans from old games (who always performed better then other newcomers in fan pools), and after them the characters we actually got (like Chrom, or Inklings), and after those the characters we thought had a shot but got deconfirmed (like Waluigi, Lyn, Captain Toad...), and finally very popular character whose fate is still unknown to us (like Dixie, Shadow, Geno...). Add all of them up, and do you honestly believe that Skull Kid performed better than, say, Snake? Or Bandana Dee? Or Impa (with Hyrule Warriors being a thing)? Or Wolf? Or Ice Climber? Or Daisy, Waluigi, Geno, and I could go on for a while. If, and only IF, he placed better than LITERALLY ANYONE ELSE (do you realize how many are left to share the remaining votes? Shantae, Shovel Knight, Bomberman, Simon, Isaac, Paper Mario, Rayman...), what's his actual placement? Number 25?
- Skull Kid have moveset potential: in a game where the director could create an interesting moveset for a dog whose main purpose is to laugh at the player, this is pretty irrilevant. Anyone can have moveset potential when sky is the limit.
- Skull Kid is popular: yes, because loz18 had legit info (he played the demo prior the direct), so people legitimately thought he had info, and since then he topped every fan pool. But those fan pools don't include all the character from above who are in game, deconfirmed, or yet to be revealed. Proof? Look at literally ANY prediction rooster prior loz18 (fake) leak: how many of them have Skull Kid in it? No, seriously, I would like to add some links here...
- And finally, my favourite: the chair theory. By far, the most asinine and insane theory I've ever heard. I don't think I've to explain why believing that two random chairs in the background are hints of, not even the actual character, but rather the two fairies that accompany him is something that most psychiatrist would classify as insanity. If you didn't googled the definition of apophenia before, it might be a good time to do now...
I want to clarify a small detail: I'm not saying Skull Kid won't or can't be in the game, but you can bet your ass that if he will be in it will be completly unrelated to the ballot, loz18 and the freaking chairs...
So, what all of this have to do with Dante?
Well, I strongly feel its the same exact situation. Its no secret that loz18 is a Skull Kid fan, and if you read the DMC5 leaker it appears pretty clear he's DMC enthusiast. So they both did the same thing.
They had legit info (played the demo/had info about DMC5), leaked it and gained a small reputation, then followed with a fake info/wishful thinking about their favourite character (Skull Kid/Dante) being in smash, and consequently that character gained traction to the point it went from completley absent from smash speculation to a pretty prominent one. In the case of Skull Kid it got a lot of attention due to being first party, the first newcomer in the Zelda franchise in ages, and a very "Sakuraish" choice, while Dante got at least discussed and considered for the rooster, much like Ryu was after the dataming of the Lucas/Roy/Ryu leak. Hell, he starting to get (fake)
image leaks...
If DLC will be a thing (and probably will), those character might be considered thanks to their late spark of popularity.
By the way, I have to admit the DMC5 leaker reaaally did his homework to correctly piggybacking the first leak, the Vergeben MvC Infinite leak and included really a lot of details that others (fake) leakers never even think of. And Matt Walker was the perfect untrustworthy game developer to frame and make it seems likely.
Last two things before go. First, remember that everything I wrote is my speculation standpoint, I can be wrong on many things. That's why I tried to provide as much links as I could find and in chronological order, I wanted it to be as clear as possible, if I forgot something please let me now.
Second, as I'm writing this, another theory surfaced:
the blog theory. In short, we might get 7-8 more characters before launch. This could possibly correlates with the
CoroCoro 108 stage slip up, but I personally find hard to believe it, especially after Sakurai statement to not expect too many characters.
TL;DR: Dante got loz18ed. A real leaker lied about his smash inclusion to make the character prominent in the smash speculation, and consequently a possible candidate for the DLC.
EDIT: typos. God my english is terrible...