hey guys. currently studying some and a situation that i've pondered has come up.
is this truly the best option in this situation? of course, i'm talking about the immediate fair after the down air.
one thing i'm going to attempt to get from now on in this situation is that i'd like to not go for the fair immediately and rather wait until they try to jump out of the hitstun so that they lose their jump. or maybe there's a better follow up than fair altogether. thoughts?
I've thought the same thing myself.
In that particular case, I think first hit nair -> fair would have actually worked (respecting RaynEX's "really good" DI, and just the right amount of stage left to run on). This would have probably sealed the stock here.
I've experimented with a second dair instead, as it does more damage (20% if the first dair was fresh, as opposed to 17% from a fresh fair, or less from a stale one) (for when you aren't confident in setting up an edgeguard). I usually reserve this for lower %s, or when you are above a platform (actually has potential for a follow up, unlike in this particular clip). In the clip here I would definitely not go for it. Even an edgeguard situation that you're unlikely to get a kill off of is better than getting more damage but reseting to neutral imo.
You can also use upB (17% fresh), but it has less knockback than fair, less damage than dair, and gives their jump back, so it's probably never the best option.
And now you get into the less guaranteed stuff.
You can try to outwait the 2nd jump, and I think this would work well on 'bad' players, but not good ones. Even after a double jump, fox / falco still have access to upB, sideB, and airdodge, all of which will avoid your attack if you just try to hit them during their descent (they can also shinestall, but that's terrible in this situation). On top of that, they can also just come down with an aerial, which will outprioritize ganon's fair. An uair leaving them with no double jump is great, but for the amount of extra work it requires leads me to believe that a guaranteed fair that doesn't take their double jump is preferred.
Now what if they don't jump? You better be prepared to hit them with something quick if they get down to some certain height and don't jump. They could make it a techchase situation, but they can also wiggle out / attack before hitting the ground. Catching them with a dsmash before they land would be amazing here, but again it basically requires a read, and they will probably decide to jump out when they don't see you jumping at them to fair. In most cases you'll have to commit to a guess, and most of the time they can escape your punish with shielding / rolling upon landing.
SO, I'm gonna go ahead and say that sticking to a guaranteed hit is preferred unless you are confident in reading your opponent, or that they aren't cognizant of all the mixups they have at their disposal. However if you are a god of timing and hitstun, I suggest fairing at a time that is VERY AMBIGUOUS as to whether or not they are out of stun or not when it hits them. This gives potential to take their double jump (which will completely **** them), but if you are even slightly too late you whiff the punish entirely, so I would only use this in tournament after practicing it a lot. Another thing here that people don't think about is that this aims to hit them at the end of their stun, when they are closest to the ground. This is good because it leaves them with less height (and thus limits their recovery slightly). People will roll their eyes at this but I think you should limit the opponent however possible. You can also try this same thing except fastfalling on top of them with bair.
tldr; I think you should almost always fair (or nair -> fair if the % and DI is right). Also try hitting them 1 frame after their stun ends so that you catch their jump if they buffered it.