How can we predict reveals?

[Deleted member]

I'm almost afraid to see Wario, because I know I'm going to be disappointed with his lack of Wario Land influence.

Project M captured Wario better than Sakurai could…

Where's Wario's Ground Pound or actually giving him his Shoulder Bash? The fact that Sakurai looked over a large part of Wario and his character (even skipping over a whole series of games no less) really upsets me. But still, I'm glad that he's in. He was my most wanted newcomer prior to E3 2006.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Two things that I wanna say:
1. With characters getting overhauls and just seeing King Dedede now just gets me hyped to see Wario more. I hope we see the greedy fat guy soon.
2. I think that we will get a Nintendo Direct this month. I dunno if it will be as big as last month's however. I would be totally surprised if Smash's 15th Anniversary wasn't acknowledged by Sakurai or Nintendo at all.

I can agree and I just remember

Mewtwo can qualify for being reveal on that day remember he was suppose to be in smash bros 64 and in brawl

 

[UltimateWario]

I think we're likely to get Captain Falcon on the original Smash anniversary. He's practically the mascot at this point.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I personally think Wario should be half Wario Land and half Wario Ware.

At least keep the bike...

 

[LoneKonWolf]

I think we're likely to get Captain Falcon on the original Smash anniversary. He's practically the mascot at this point.

I always felt that Kirby was just the main character in smash, to me at least he's the mascot, though captain falcon is a close second

 

[Deleted member]

I feel as though that in honor of Smash's 15th Anniversary, every un-confirmed Smash 64 veteran (Yoshi, Captain Falcon, Ness, and Jigglypuff) should get confirmed. I know that this won't happen, but I wish it did…

I personally think Wario should be half Wario Land and half Wario Ware.

At least keep the bike...

I'm a bit torn to be honest.
For one, I want Wario to use Wario Land moves, which includes the Shoulder Bash as his side special. But, I don't want to sacrifice the Bike too. That was an extremely useful recovery tool. I'm leaning more towards the Shoulder Bash however.

I think we're likely to get Captain Falcon on the original Smash anniversary. He's practically the mascot at this point.

When I think of mascots for Smash, I think of the Original 12. They stick out to me on every roster for how long they have been in the series.

Mewtwo can qualify for being reveal on that day remember he was suppose to be in smash bros 64 and in brawl

I don't think so. Game Freak is rather strict, aren't they? I mean, we didn't get Mewtwo on October 11… the absolute perfect day to reveal Mewtwo. I'm calling an Original 12 member or bust.

 

[Knight Dude]

Nah. Captain Falcon is definitely the closest thing to a mascot Smash Bros has. I don't think anyone else has any quote-able attacks like Falcon does either.

Anyway, as for reveals, we managed to for see two in a row. So we could get lucky with a third. I'm going to throw my hat into the ring and say a couple possibilities. The most obvious one being that Diddy could be shown once Tropical Freeze makes its way to Japan. The other being Smash's anniversary, which could show any of the vets from any Smash game. I'm thinking that said vet would be Captain Falcon.

 

[Xigger]

Original Smash veteran for anniversary, or Diddy Kong for Tropical Freeze. You may cast your ballots!

 

[Staarih]

I like the idea of Captain Falcon being revealed for Smash Bros' anniversary, here's hoping it will happen!

 

[Gene]

I predict Diddy Kong will be revealed on February 14th.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Considering we got our reveal so early this month and we're now in a new year....I wouldn't be at all shocked if we got another reveal before Diddy Kong.

 

[Kon]

I think the release date theory only holds water for first party titles, being Pikmin, Mario, Zelda and Kirby. I think it is safe to say that all first party releases will have a veteran reveal associated with them, should there be a veteran appropriate for said release (ex, Dedede is a more appropriate reveal for Triple Deluxe than Meta Knight is, as Dedede has a own role in Triple Deluxe while Meta Knight has no known role). This would also explain why we did not get anything for X and Y, as they are second party games.

So: Diddy in February and Yoshi in March. I think that makes the most amount of sense, and the one remaining variable is if there will be any other veteran reveals in the month long stretch between them.

You forgot 3rd parties like Sonic for the release of the Nintendo-exclusive game Sonic Lost World. After all, I would consider Game Freak a special case, more the exception. There is no need to find a rule counting for an exception as Pokémon X/Y.

Btw: The one-one-two reveals for the months should not be something considered as an undoubtful fact or even a rule, because I'm sure as we get closer to the release of SSB4, we will get more characters per month in order to hype people even more. My feeling also says that we will see the whole roster before the release.

For SSB anniversary, which SSB64 veterans are left? Jigglypuff, Captain Falcon, Yoshi and Ness. Jigglypuff isn't the most iconic SSB64 character, while Yoshi will be saved for the release of Yoshi's New Island in March. Of course Yoshi could have been revealed in the E3 trailer, but in that case there would be no veteran left to promote Yoshi's New Island for the 3DS. So after all, Captain Falcon and Ness are the only ones still possible. Captain Falcon was somehow nearly confirmed in an interview and therefore it's much easier to show a character people are expecting and people even see semi-confirmed already.

If Sakurai were interested in trolling us, he would reveal Ness. If he wanted to give us the feeling he would be predictable, he would show Captain Falcon.

21st January: Captain Falcon/Ness (SSB anniversary)
13th February: Diddy (Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze)
XX March: Yoshi (Yoshi's New Island)

Other Veterans:

Wario (Mario Kart 8)
Shiek or Ganondorf (Hyrule Warriors)
Falco or Wolf (?) -> maybe random reveals and linked to Starfox 64 3D, even if not revealed on a significant date like anniversary
Ness -> promote the eShop version of Mother 2/Earthbound, even if not revealed on a date like anniversary or something like that
Lucas (?)
Jigglypuff, Lucario or Pkmn Trainer (?) -> maybe random reveals
Meta Knight (?) -> maybe random reveal
Mr.Game&Watch or R.O.B. (?) -> maybe random reveals
Ice Climbers -> promote the eShop version of Ice Climbers for the NES or promote NES Remix
ZSS (?) -> random reveal

Snake(?) -> maybe in a Nintendo Direct, however there are no Metal Gear Solid titles Snake could promote on Nintendo consoles
Ike(Fire Emblem X Shin Megami Tensei) (?) -> not sure about this one

Did I forget any veteran from Brawl?

 

[TumblrFamous]

I think we will see one more veteran before Diddy Kong in February. I'm guessing we will see a veteran on the 21, 23, or 30. And I predict it will be Ness, Captain Falcon, Ice Climbers, or a Pokemon character.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I think we will see one more veteran before Diddy Kong in February. I'm guessing we will see a veteran on the 21, 23, or 30. And I predict it will be Ness, Captain Falcon, Ice Climbers, or a Pokemon character.

I agree with that completely

I mean smash 64 anniversary is a bigge

And we could get a pokemon character I mean in my Opinion about why pokemon character are not reveal I don't game freak banned sakurai from revealing pokemon characters. I think its morly that all of them might have to be unlocked

And that's why mewtwo might be possible on that day even though its slim

 

[Koopaul]

Do we have any evidence that Sakurai reveals characters on game anniversaries? So far it's just been for when new games come out.

 

[Curious Villager]

Do we have any evidence that Sakurai reveals characters on game anniversaries? So far it's just been for when new games come out.

Some people say that Peach was sort of revealed around the anniversary of Super Mario Bros but that's pretty much it I believe. I guess we'll have to wait until the 30th of January and see if the Ice Climbers get revealed then in order to see if that theory holds much water... (Or the Smash 64 anniversary and if we see a Smash 64 veteran out of it I suppose...)

Then again, there were probably a number of other anniversaries that did not bear any veteran reveals either so it may already mean little... :/

 

[Kon]

Some people say that Peach was sort of revealed around the anniversary of Super Mario Bros but that's pretty much it I believe. I guess we'll have to wait until the 30th of January and see if the Ice Climbers get revealed then in order to see if that theory holds much water... (Or the Smash 64 anniversary and if we see a Smash 64 veteran out of it I suppose...)

Then again, there were probably a number of other anniversaries that did not bear any veteran reveals either so it may already mean little... :/

Smash anniversary is at least an anniversary which would definitely give us a good reason for a veteran reveal.

 

[Curious Villager]

Smash anniversary is at least an anniversary which would definitely give us a good reason for a veteran reveal.

True, I guess that's the best time to reveal a Smash 64 veteran like Ness, Jigglypuff, Captain Falcon or Yoshi. I do hope Sakurai does show us at least something of significance on the Smash 64 anniversary.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Watch out for that Yoshi release. So far, unless I missed it, we only have the NA release date. So it means nothing.

Once we get Japan, it will be a different story

 

[GreenReaperGod]

I'm predicting that
Diddy will be revealed around Tropical Freeze's release
Yoshi around Yoshi's New Island's release
Wario around Mario Kart 8's release
Little Mac, Pac-man, and Mii at E3

 

[Deleted member]

Now, when people say Yoshi for New Island's release, are they referring to the American release or the Japanese one?
America is on March 14th.
Japan is "Summer 2014" (which could be anywhere from the beginning of June to the end of August).

Bear in mind that we have not had an American release date be used for a character.

 

[Louie G.]

we have not had an American release date be used for a character.

 

[Deleted member]

Wasn't aware August 7th was when Dream Team was released in America.

 

[Louie G.]

Wasn't aware August 7th was when Dream Team was released in America.

Oh yeah.
I just meant around the American release date.
Luigi was revealed closer to the American release of Dream Team than the Japanese/European.

 

[Deleted member]

Oh yeah.
I just meant around the American release date.
Luigi was revealed closer to the American release of Dream Team than the Japanese/European.

Which is coincidence.

 

[Louie G.]

Which is coincidence.

Want to know more about Luigi? Visit the official website for Mario & Luigi: Dream Team.

 

[Glaciacott]

I agree with Brawler610 (I think it was him) about a Nintendo Direct this month. Or at the least before Diddy in February.

After all, it was roughly a year ago (In Jan. 23, 2013) that we got the huge Wii U Nintendo Direct that was pretty much like an E3. Given how they got some holidays momentum, I think NIntendo needs to do that again. And quite possibly announce a release date for Mario Kart and a window for Smash.

And yes, I think that if they do that, we get a newcomer. Directs are great moments for videos, and chances are we'll get one of those "OMG, is this a new [insert game]?!? NOPE, SMASH REVEAL!" moments.

 

[Louie G.]

If we get a Nintendo Direct this month, I'm expecting another newcomer.
If we don't, and we get one in February instead, then Diddy will likely be revealed in that Direct.

 

[GreenReaperGod]

I'm pretty sure Luigi would have been revealed at the Japan release date for Dream Team if it wasn't for Olimar. He was revealed on the exact release date of Dream Team to promote Pikmin 3, which was coming out the day after

 

[Deleted member]

Want to know more about Luigi? Visit the official website for Mario & Luigi: Dream Team.

Again, coincidence.
Luigi was revealed for The Year of Luigi.

Whenever a character is revealed for a release date, Sakurai notes as such on the PotD.
Heck, he usually commemorates a release regardless of revealing a character or not. (Except notably X/Y, he did a faux commemoration one week later)

Pikmin 3 (Friday before release): Olimar reveal
Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD: Toon Link reveal
Sonic Lost World: Picture of Sonic and Mario fighting on Windy Hill Zone
eShop release of Wii Fit U: Picture of Wii Fit Trainer and a Male WFT alt
eShop release of Kid Icarus Uprising: Picture of Pit chargin' his laser bow
Super Mario 3D World: Picture of Mario, Luigi, and Peach (while pulling out Toad) on Mario Galaxy
Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds: Zelda reveal
Kirby Triple Deluxe: King Dedede reveal


NOTE: All of these are for Japan releases. He never acknowledges American releases.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Smash anniversary is at least an anniversary which would definitely give us a good reason for a veteran reveal.

Me too I wonder if character that were mean't for smash 64 qualify if there was a character reveal there

 

[Chandeelure]

The next newcomer revealed will change drastically the roster predictions (except if it is Little Mac, because he is in all the rosters XD).

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

The next newcomer revealed will change drastically the roster predictions (except if it is Little Mac, because he is in all the rosters XD).

Also include mewtwo to that he's pretty much almost impossible to not be confirmed

I mean come on he got a new movie, sakurai barber mouthed at a convention they are considering mewtwo,he's a legend in pokemon x and y, he is the only pokemon with 2 mega forms.

Do the math

 

[True Blue Warrior]

If we get a Nintendo Direct this month, I'm expecting another newcomer.

Way too early for a newcomer.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Although we do have an official release date for Yoshi's New Island, it's not until Summer 2014 that Japan gets the game. So even though North America is expecting the game in March, there's no guarantee that Yoshi will be revealed during that month.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I don't know that we'll get a newcomer this month, but next month, maybe.

Remember, Sakurai got upset that some characters got spoiled because of the leak, and that the cutscenes for SSE were available on the internet too.

I don't think it's too hard to believe that we're getting all newcomers before release, so with that in mind, depending on how many we're getting, I think we could get one at least once every two months.

Or, if we get a huge trailer, we might get two at one. I'm sure we're guaranteed to get at least on of those. Call it a hunch, but the first trailer was titled 'Trailer 1", so I'm thinking we'll get another at E3 or something.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I don't know that we'll get a newcomer this month, but next month, maybe.

Remember, Sakurai got upset that some characters got spoiled because of the leak, and that the cutscenes for SSE were available on the internet too.

I don't think it's too hard to believe that we're getting all newcomers before release, so with that in mind, depending on how many we're getting, I think we could get one at least once every two months.

Or, if we get a huge trailer, we might get two at one. I'm sure we're guaranteed to get at least on of those. Call it a hunch, but the first trailer was titled 'Trailer 1", so I'm thinking we'll get another at E3 or something.

Yea E3 if smash bros trailer very very likely for more than 1 newcomer on that trailer

The main rumor is little mac mii and pac man are on it

 

[Deleted member]

Japan releases for 2014:

Wii U:
Dr. Luigi: January 15th
Wii Fit U (retail release): February 1st
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze: February 13th
Mario Kart 8: "Spring"

Bayonetta 2: TBA
Hyrule Warriors: TBA
Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem: TBA
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: TBA
Untitled Legend of Zelda: TBA
X: TBA
Yarn Yoshi: TBA

3DS:
Mario Party Island Tour: March 20th
Yoshi's New Island: "Summer"

Crosswords Plus: TBA
Mario Golf World Tour: TBA
Super Smash Bros. for 3DS: TBA


Any others I didn't list?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Japan releases for 2014:

Wii U:
Dr. Luigi: January 15th
Wii Fit U (retail release): February 1st
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze: February 13th
Mario Kart 8: "Spring"

Bayonetta 2: TBA
Hyrule Warriors: TBA
Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem: TBA
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: TBA
Untitled Legend of Zelda: TBA
X: TBA
Yarn Yoshi: TBA

3DS:
Mario Party Island Tour: March 20th
Yoshi's New Island: "Summer"

Crosswords Plus: TBA
Mario Golf World Tour: TBA
Super Smash Bros. for 3DS: TBA


Any others I didn't list?

I think this covers most of it.

So from these releases, we're only basically getting...Yoshi, Diddy Kong (or DK newcomer) and maybe Wario for Mario Kart. Although for Mario Kart I could see a stage getting revealed too.

This year might be tough as far as speculating. We're going in with no ideas once the big releases are out of the way.

If we're looking at newcomers, Shulk could get revealed with something pertaining to X, and if we consider veterans too, we may get Ike or a FE character with SMT X FE.

That's all I've got though.

 

[Glaciacott]

We have little idea because most things don't have release dates. This is why I feel a Nintendo Direct is upon us with considerably much more information about 2014.

What I wonder now is what to expect from the next newcomer trailer. If Sakurai wants to make us think it's a DK trailer we could potentially have a Dixie/K.Rool reveal. I can also envision a case of Nintendo pushing forward a new Metroid this year, and then we get a faux metroid trailer that turns out to be a Ridley reveal.
... But of course these are wishful thinking ...