Jesus Christ! I leave for a couple hours and there's like 10 pages to go through!
Alright now that FP1 is over, give your report cards.
1 - Joker ( B- ) - Despite me not really caring much for the Persona series, I get it. I totally understand why he was chosen. Persona 5 was a massive game, one that finally allowed the series to break through that barrier of relative obscurity it was trapped behind for a long time. Joker as a character is a perfect representation of what his game series is about: stealthy, stylish, ... some other word that starts with an S, and with a hint of creatorial favoritism, he's has it all. As an ice-breaker and an indicator as to what the Fighter Pass was going to look like, Joker is a great choice.
2 - Hero ( B ) - Another character who I personally didn't want really badly, but I understood why they were chosen. The Dragon Quest series has been a phenomenon is Japan, but in the states it's barely managed to keep it's proverbial head above water. Western gamers, even more seasoned JRPG fans, have played the more narratively and mechanically complex Final Fantasy 7, Chrono Trigger, Tales Of games, the aformentioned Persona games, Super Mario RPG, just about every other JRPG that the Dragon Quest series helped in paving the way for.
So with a remake of their latest entry looming off in the distance, it's no suprise that SquareEnix would've really wanted to fix that fast, and Hero being in Smash serves this dual purpose perfectly. It's a character (or characters in this case) that the japanese fans have wanted to see in the game since forever ago, previously thought impossible due to a myriad of issues, both legal and personal. In terms of the western fanbase, it's a way to get their name out there and help get people excited for the upcoming port/remaster with an incredibly long name. Not bad at all.
3 - Banjo & Kazooie ( S ) - Banjo & Kazooie were one of the most highly requested NEVER EVER characters out there. Their getting in the game wasn't just another reveal, but a cause for celebration for people the world over. I don't even think Nintendo themselves knew beforehand how goddamn estatic the fanbase would be over this announcement. Do I even need to say anything more? ****'s good, you already know.
4 - Terry Bogard ( B+ ) - Terry was a very weird choice for most people. King of Fighters, despite having a long and storied history that continues even today, as well as being generally recognizable to more moderate games enthusiasts, has remained relatively unknown compared to the likes of Street Fighter and Tekken. Terry similarly is a name and a face people would be generally quick to recognize, but few would say that they've played his games. As a result, you'd think that he'd make for a generally unpopular pick for Smash, garnering groans and derision from most people, but you'd be wrong.
While there were certainly a few disappointed members in the proverbial audience rows, most people welcomed Terry's inclusion with open arms. And I think that has to do with three main factors:
1 - He has a legacy. As I mentioned just a moment ago, while his home series isn't as well known or popular as his contemporaries, it still has a long and storied history and whose impact cannot be denied. This was the game that inspired a young Sakurai to even make Smash in the first place. That alone is worth accepting the likes of Terry to this roster.
2 - Terry is cool and charming as all hell. While name recognition and impact are somewhat important to not only getting in Smash, but being accepted by the wider audience, personality is also a major factor. Incineroar was a... divisive character, to say the least. Nobody really wanted a new Pokemon character, let alone another Starter Pokemon from a generation that was mostly waning by the time the game came out. But despite all of the backlash he got when he was first revealed, Incineroar began to really grow on people not only because of his creative and unique moveset, but also his infectious smug **** personality. It's really hard to stay mad at him.
To use another example, someone like Corrin may be mechanically unique and come from a popular game series with a long storied history, but they're as devoid of personality as you can get, which is a bit of a given since they're a blank stand-in for the player. As such, most people would be hard-pressed to care about them at all. Now compare that to Terry: A smug, confident, buff as **** family man rockin' the 90's punk kid look, complete with a long blonde ponytail and a radical hat, who shouts broken english as he fires explosions out of his goddamn hands. What's not to love about that?
3 - He was accidentally leaked ahead of time. A lot of people like to give leaks a bit of a bad rap, and I can totally see why that is. I mean, you're going out of your way to spoil something someone else worked so hard on and wanted to reveal themselves. But at the same time, if that suprise turns out to not be as great as you thought it'd be, then it just leaves people disappointed. In that regard, leaks go a long way to help mitigate the backlash some of those reveals can have. SNK's involvement in Smash was accidentally leaked by a branch of Nintendo themselves around 5 days before the next big Nintendo Direct took place, with insiders quickly coming to the conclusion that the next character would be Terry. This allowed people to get used to the idea of an SNK character coming to the roster, and thus lessened the backlash considerably.
5 - Byleth ( C+ ) - The most recent addition to the cast, being revealed just a day prior, Byleth has basically become the Corrin of Smash Ultimate, usurping Piranha Plant as most people's unfavorite amongst the newcomers. They're yet another blue-haired, personality-devoid protagonist character, from a franchise who has so many characters in Smash already that most people would've been totally fine
not getting a new character from said franchise, who primarily uses a sword for their attacks like all the other characters from their series, granted this last one has been decidedly flipped on it's head with several other weapon types (Bow, Axe, and Lance) being added to their repertoire.
Byleth is a character most no one wanted, and I'm in agreement with most people in the opinion that Sakurai/Nintendo probably should've held off including them as a fighter. That said, there are some parts about their inclusion I actually like. I think their moveset is pretty solid, with a lot of variety as opposed to other
Fire
Emblem
fighters
who are just Marth with a slightly different coat of paint and maybe a Special Move or two of difference. I also like their stage, which is heavily based on an actual location from the games as opposed to something more generic than an arena or a random castle. Overall they aren't the worst character they could've picked for Smash, but I'm not gonna lie, I struggle to really care about them.
So I guess my overall rating of the Fighter Pass is a solid B+. Most of the picks here were acceptable, one of them was beyond amazing, and only one of them was really underwhelming. Not bad at all, if you ask me. I'm actually a bit excited for Vol. 2. I've heard that some people are thinking we may get a Gen 8 Pokemon for this next pass but I highly doubt it. I mean, we somewhat recently got Spirits for Sword and Shield. If they were planning on adding another Pokemon character as DLC, they would've held off on releasing those so they would come with the new character.
>Sakurai mentions in the stream that the recording took place back in November
>Coincidentally that Mallow/Cacodemon clip was also released back in November too
It may not be much, but it's something I noticed and wanted to point out.
View attachment 258273
Hmm, very interesting! Thanks for pointing this out.
Got a rad speculation take. Ready?
Next character is announced really early, a la Joker, on the 28th the same day as the Pass goes up for sale, a la Joker and December 7th. I feel like they gotta show at least one character.
Hmm, maybe? I'm moreso hedging my bets on whenever this upcoming Nintendo Direct happens, which at this rate I think will either be in February or March at the latest.
My confidants can confirm this but I knew about a Three Houses stage and spirit board and I learned about this on Christmas Day. My contacts never heard Blythe as playable, ironically, and one contact heard that male and female Blythe were coming as Mii costumes, presumably with 6.
Y'know at this point, I think you guys should just assume that any stage you hear about will come with a fighter. So far it seems like they're only doing the pass stuff (one character, one stage, more than one music tracks) so a standalone stage seems pretty unlikely.
Now, on the topic of Geno, I know that some people believe this somehow negatively affects his chances. And to that point I ask, "How?" His chances aren't affected by this reveal no matter who the character could've been. It literally could have been ANYONE, and it wouldn't have changed a thing from what we were already expecting.
People feel that if whatever character is revealed isn't the one they really wanted, then their character is less likely. It's irrational, but I see why people feel that way. It'll pass.
You know they will.
Since we got the obligatory newest Fire Emblem game rep, I have no doubt in my mind that we will get the obligatory newest Pokémon generation rep.
I actually highly doubt they'll add a new Pokemon for two reasons:
1 - They already added their obligatory Pokemon character with Incineroar.
and 2 - They already added Gen 8 Spirits to the game, which a hypothetical Gen 8 Pokemon would come with, sort of like how we most likely aren't getting a Resident Evil character since we've already got a group of Spirits.
Now I know there's Mewtwo in Smash 4, but he moreso counts as a veteran fighter akin to Lucas and Roy. Fire Emblem didn't have a wholly original character in the base game aside from Chrom as an Echo, so perhaps they felt that justified adding Byleth.
So guys, I've got two cups of coffee and an Adderall in my guts and I'm ready to rock. Theorycraft time! Today's topic: how the **** did we get here? Let's dissect things:
Suddenly, Blythe! Wait... What?!
Blythe's reveal yesterday was jarring, to say the least. After months of frustration and dead ends even in insider circles, we got another promotional Fire Emblem character. The irony is palpable especially with Sakurai flat out saying it was a hard kept secret, even among Nintendo employees. Bravo to Sakurai and Nintendo for generating a situation where nobody knew what the golden **** was going on. So... How did we get here?
The Weird Nature of Pack 5
Blythe sticks out like a sore thumb for a ton of reasons. He's by far the "youngest" character added by a solid two years for starters. He was the tail end of a pack that was big third party icons. All these third party icons were also from companies not yet represented in Smash (Atlus, Armor Project, RARE/Microsoft, and SNK). Blythe's Mii costumes were another "dump" and thematically had nothing to do with Fire Emblem, super suspicious for a character that Nintendo literally owns. Based on all these factors, I strongly believe that Blythe was a swap out and I'll explain.
Returning to Power of Six Theory
Again, created by Judge Heihachi, Power of Six basically says that the original plan of the Fighter's Pass was to give every pack 6 Mii costumes and bring back all 15 Smash 4 third party DLC costumes. Our basic map of this is the following:
1. Joker (4 Persona costumes, Knuckles and Tails)
2. Hero (4 Dragon Quest costumes, Geno and Chocobo)
3. Banjo (Goemon, all 4 Megaman costumes, Sans or Rocket Grunt)
4. Terry (3 SNK costumes, Akira, Jacky, and Heihachi)
5. Some Dude™ (Two costumes from this company/franchise, Gil, Lloyd, Monster Hunter, and Rathalos)
All thematically line up, with Banjo being a "dump" of sorts. Going back to my most basic theory for 5 back in September, this suggests that 5 would be a swordsman from a yet unrepresented company in Smash Ultimate. My line of thinking took me through mostly Namco and Bethesda but what if I overthought the situation? Back in September, what swordsman was the most on people's minds including insiders? Ryu Hayabusa.
Where the **** is Ryu?!?
I have a theory on what happened. Brew/Shifty's contact was correct but in a Gematsu leak way. They both said this contact knew about Piranha Plant and Joker and I believe them. This contact probably did have access to the original plan for the Fighter's Pass but... That planned changed for some reason. If we swap out Byleth with Ryu, he fits exceptionally well. Thematically, he goes with everyone else and it makes a ton of sense. As established, he even fits my basic hypothesis of 5 being a swordsman from an unrepped company. That's real ****in' neato but where is Ryu now? I have my own theories.
Conflict Among Developers? Uh Oh, Stinky!
As you all have heard from me, Ryu was first heard in insider circles around December 2018. Based on ForsakenM's timeline theory, we've established that "Season 2" was probably decided around this time and planning began. We have strong evidence of this and one developer was not so subtle about their future Smash plans: Kamiya. Mid December 2018, Kamiya puts out a public poll asking which of his characters people would like to see in Smash. Three are Capcom characters and this is where problems began. Dante won by a significant margin and that made the matter worse. Why?
Tecmo/Team Ninja and Capcom supposedly absolutely hate each other, even going as far as refusing to work on projects if the other is involved. Supposedly they've even fought each other in court too. Notice how Hyrule Warriors didn't have any of the major characters from the Capcom Zelda games? Pretty sure this was deliberate. Throw on top of this that Kamiya is hardcore resented by a good percent of professional Japanese game developers and you have a recipe for disaster. The following is my own speculation and I don't know if it can be confirmed or not.
Tecmo finds out about plans for Dante DLC in Smash and is absolutely pissed. However you say "man, **** those guys" in Japanese, that's probably what happened. Tecmo makes an ultimatum: Sakurai drops Dante or they walk from Ultimate. Sakurai doesn't budge because Kamiya is a good friend of his. Tecmo yeets itself out of DLC. This all happens before Plant is even released. "Well... ****... We're now short a character... ****, ****, piss, etc" -Sakurai, probably. There's now a big gaping hole in DLC. What's the easiest character to plug up this hole with on short notice? A Nintendo character. Sakurai said it himself, he played a Three Lawn Chairs demo and thought "neat" and made his decision based on this. No third parties were involved so it was super easy to keep this underwraps.
In my own head, this makes sense and why my contact knew about a Three Hams Will Kill Him stage and spirits, along with 4 still MIA Mii costumes, one being male and female Byleth! I think this means 6 was originally planned as a bonus and they were going to get the Three Craft Breweries content! What happened is that something went screwy and Byleth was merely prrrrrrromoted because Three Howses was already planned to get a buttload of content anyways!
The Mysterious Nature of 6
Like I've said many times before, 4 character names were commonly heard in the later half of 2018 in insider circles, Lloyd, Ryu, Geno, and anemic Burt Reynolds. I don't think this is a coincidence. I think these were the original plan for 5-8. 6 was always going to be a thing, even before Season 2 was decided. Again, like Mewtwo, a super popular character tacked onto the end as a send off but then they changed their minds for additional DLC later on. 6 was originally planned to get the Trois Maisons content because, in theory, it's a Nintendo character so it fits. So, what does this mean? It means things got jumbled and I'll map it out.
-Ryu's originally 5. For whatever reason, Tecmo drops out of Ultimate DLC.
-Ryu is replaced the easiest way that Nintendo can, they promote the Tree Houses content they were originally going to release with 6. Byleth gets promoted from Mii costume to playable. Subconsciously, Isaac and Rex fans suddenly feel existential dread and don't know why.
-Byleth's Mii costumes are all from companies already contributing to the game: Ubisoft, Capcom, and Microsoft. Byleth gets the two remaining Megaman costumes that, in theory, were originally meant for Banjo. Four Megaman costumes split between 2 "dumps" makes sense in the light of the Power of Two theory, the changed plan that 2 Smash 4 third party costumes were coming per pack until they all 15 come back.
-6 is still happening but my theory is that it will be a mix of its original planned content and Ryu's. 6's Smash 4 DLC costumes, for example, are heavily implied to be Monster Hunter and Rathalos. 6 may get the other three TH Mii costumes and one of the two rumored indie costumes to originally be planned for 6. We now have a 6 pack, supporting Power of Six and Power of Two.
-What will 6's stage, music, and spirit board be? No clue but if they're all directly related to the character, I will be genuinely surprised.
-This all lines up with the information my contacts have given me about 6 and why one of them flat out says Ryu is totally out of the picture now.
What if I'm Wrong about 6?
I've definitely considered this. What if Ryu was merely pushed back? Tecmo came back and they hugged things out. I guess that could happen. Capcom and Tecmo realize that the real magic is the friends they've made along the way and make up. Ryu gets added back in as 6. This actually lines up with what three of my confidants (not contacts, confidants are people who share info with each other and not the source of said info) have shared me. Three have heard from their own sources that 6 is going to be Dante or "a very Dante like character." This last bit is especially weird to me. It fits the profile of a speedy and flashy character. Perhaps this is why one of my contacts thinks 6 is Geno but I seriously doubt it. Only character in the insider speculation sphere that fits this description is Ryu. If I'm wrong about El Hermano, this presents the following ideas: 6 is Ryu, Dante, Geno, or it's yet another situation like Blythe and everyone got jebaited again.
So, laying this all on the table, our probable spread for 6 is pretty good. 4 decently popular characters or a total rando is a pretty good way to start off Season 2 in my opinion.
Hmm, an interesting theory there, but there's one problem with it: Koei Tecmo already have content in Smash with the Fatal Frame Spirits and Yuri Kozukata as an Assist Trophy. If they were that opposed to working with Capcom that they'd request to have Ryu removed from the Fighters Pass since there's Capcom stuff in the game, why would they agree to add those in the first place? I'd imagine it wouldn't matter to them since it's Sora Ltd. and Bandai Namco making the game and they have no beef with them; Ultimate would be a neutral ground so to speak.
I've been thinking about the Megaman X/EXE mii costumes and wonder a few things:
A) What does this mean for Capcom? If we were going to get another Capcom rep, wouldn't they have saved these for that? I guess we still have the Monster hunter costume, but that makes me wonder whether Monster hunter will get promoted or not.
B) I assume that this means any future Mega Man characters are pretty much dead. Sad. I like that series.
I think we still could get another character from Capcom, just as I think we could still maybe get Rayman despite the Ubisoft costumes, but it's less likely.
Yall talk about Byleth so much, you might as well marry him
>him
Sure thing, boss!
Agreed ... a first party DLC character came with a stage and music ... but Geno, a third party character couldn't come with a stage and music? I personally don't follow Star since ... well, the whole FP says you are wrong on that. Lol.
We know there is a blend of Mario owned aspects of Mario RPG 7 Stars, but the most of it is all Squares. Heck, we could only get two tracks that are not Nintendo owned (Armed Boss and Forest Maze) and Sakurai's team could fill it with more music, even from the other RPG titles like Paper, M&L, etc.
Wait, GALAXY BRAIN ENGAGE. They get around Geno having two songs by including the versions of songs they own from SMRPG. For example, the version of the SMB3 Final Boss theme that's used in the beginning of the game would be owned by Nintendo, so they could totally include that alongside Geno no problem.
https://twitter.com/Stoic_Miiverse/status/1217993743242080256 everyone I must bring your attention to thic comic's last page.
as you can clearly see, theres a lawyer and an assistant trying to help a pure babi <3
This is precious and I love it. So here's three versions of it for future use! One normal one, one with no background and table, and one with no background and table.
It's either A) him being playable or B) his Sm4sh costume coming back, there's no damm inbetween.
View attachment 258387
Lol geno isn't going to happen, after this god-awful pass and how it ended, and looking at the roster and how sakurai acts. The next pass is going to be ****, like Joker/Belch ****. It's going to be filled with nobodies no one wants but that egotistical manic that is ****kurai.
God I ****ing hate him as a director, he's the literal WORST kind for this type of game; A director who only does what he wants and ignores the fans. People buy this game/dlc, why the **** can't he build the DLC around OUR wants, not his?
If any other company made a game like this, and completely ignored fan requests, it would flop. Look at Playstation allstars, the main reason it flopped was because of this **** roster. The only reason this game lived on after melee is because it's a Nintendo game.
God ****ing damn it, this roster is just pure garbage. They held a damn ballot for no reason.