Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Deleted member]

But that's the thing: there's never been a Sakurai Presents and a Direct in the same month. One would have to be in August and the other in September. Like I said in my last post, it's heavily assumed that 7 wouldn't be a shadowdrop but announced in a Direct. Based on this, the gap between announcements and releases when it comes to Directs is much wider than shadow drops. Shadowdrops average about a week while Direct reveals to releases averages about a month and a half to two months. Here's my data from yesterday:

Plant- 92 (36 between Joker, 56 until release)
Joker - 132 (63 from February 2019 Direct)
Hero- 49
Banjo- 85 (37 from Hero)
Terry- 63
Byleth- 12 (47 from VGAs)
Min Min - 7 (95 from ARMS announcement, 75 until what would have been E3)

The average is about 56 if you add total days between major presentations and divide by 7. Byleth and Min-Min, however, were shadowdrops so let's see what happens if we only count the characters announced in Directs or major presentations:

Our average only drops a slight amount to 54.

Continuing this train of thought, let's look at characters that have been announced one month and released the very next or bumped into another character announcement/release:

Plant: 36
Hero: 49
Banjo: 37

Our average here is about 41 days. Now, our current theorycraft is that if 7's "Sakurai Presents" presentation is on September 7th, then their release will likely be the week of September 14th. With this in mind, if we subtract 41 days from September 14th, we actually wind up with August 4th. Fun stuff.

Fatman please

There's too many numbers

You're making me dizzy

 

[okamifire]

Agreed. Though, it wouldn't be satisfying enough to simply have people vanish like Whack/Thwack does. I'd want them to fly off at ludicrous speed and burst off the top of the screen for comedic effect. This of course would instantly trigger the crowd to cheer for Geno.

I'm all for that idea, haha. Sounds incredibly satisfying. I wonder what they'd make his Final Smash be? Canonically I guess maybe Geno Flash but I think Blast or Whirl would be more exciting, the first visually and the second just having that knockback like you mentioned similar to Link's arrow.

 

[MattX20]

Still, all the signs are directly pointing towards the reveal of FP7 being in August, whether it's the beginning, middle, or end of the month remains to be seen

 

[EntropyAtrophy]

At this point I have no expectations Nintendo is going to provide anything (Smash related or otherwise) in 2020 before the holidays. If they end up giving any kind of information before that I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Better than being disappointed with every rumored date being a nothingburger over and over.

 

[Firox]

I'm all for that idea, haha. Sounds incredibly satisfying. I wonder what they'd make his Final Smash be? Canonically I guess maybe Geno Flash but I think Blast or Whirl would be more exciting, the first visually and the second just having that knockback like you mentioned similar to Link's arrow.

Now that you mention it, it would be kinda cool if his final smash were Geno whirl so that you could see a cut scene of it hitting and doing 9999 damage. My only issue with that is that I'd rather have Geno whirl as a side special so that I could spam it more and see it in competitive play.

 

[Sigran101]

But that's the thing: there's never been a Sakurai Presents and a Direct in the same month. One would have to be in August and the other in September. Like I said in my last post, it's heavily assumed that 7 wouldn't be a shadowdrop but announced in a Direct. Based on this, the gap between announcements and releases when it comes to Directs is much wider than shadow drops. Shadowdrops average about a week while Direct reveals to releases averages about a month and a half to two months. Here's my data from yesterday:

Plant- 92 (36 between Joker, 56 until release)
Joker - 132 (63 from February 2019 Direct)
Hero- 49
Banjo- 85 (37 from Hero)
Terry- 63
Byleth- 12 (47 from VGAs)
Min Min - 7 (95 from ARMS announcement, 75 until what would have been E3)

The average is about 56 if you add total days between major presentations and divide by 7. Byleth and Min-Min, however, were shadowdrops so let's see what happens if we only count the characters announced in Directs or major presentations:

Our average only drops a slight amount to 54.

Continuing this train of thought, let's look at characters that have been announced one month and released the very next or bumped into another character announcement/release:

Plant: 36
Hero: 49
Banjo: 37

Our average here is about 41 days. Now, our current theorycraft is that if 7's "Sakurai Presents" presentation is on September 7th, then their release will likely be the week of September 14th. With this in mind, if we subtract 41 days from September 14th, we actually wind up with August 4th. Fun stuff.

Wow, August 4th not 3rd! So it actually would be on my birthday! I really hope this comes true!

 

[Enigma735]

I'm honestly confused why some people are suggesting CP7 will get revealed in September now. If this rumored August Direct is coming, then I think its a damn good chance we could get the reveal of CP7 their

 

[Deleted member]

So besides Another Metroid 2 Remake and Project M, are there any other instances of Nintendo fan projects getting taken down specifically because they could've potentially clashed with an official Nintendo product?

Pokemon Prism! Not too long later we got Ultra Sun and Moon, all about Necrozma - his ability is "Prismatic Armor". Heck, the place Ultra Necrozma is a place devoid of light. A lot of light/prism of light references in those games.

Pokemon Uranium too, kinda. Sun and Moon was only months away. And not too long after the Super Mario 64 HD was taken down, we got Odyssey. And if you believe the rumours, the unofficial PC Port of SM64 was taken down as well, possibly due to the 3D Collection that has SM64 included.

 

[Firox]

I'm honestly confused why some people are suggesting CP7 will get revealed in September now. If this rumored August Direct is coming, then I think its a damn good chance we could get the reveal of CP7 their

If we get a legit Direct (and by legit, I mean NOT a mini-garbo-"partner" version) in August, then yeah, I'd say our chances of seeing CP7 are incredibly high. My only hang-up is that Nintendo's current track record of severe *********** doesn't instill a lot of confidence that we won't just see more mini-garbo Directs. If that ends up being the case, then I'd set my sights on September.

 

[MattX20]

The question of the identity of the supposed direct mini, whether a general direct mini or a partner showcase, will be answered in the next week or two supposing there is one at all.

 

[J. Bond]

King Zell's information is that there will be a non-general Direct in the second half of August and a general one in September. And that non-general Direct is very likely to be another Partner Showcase.

 

[MattX20]

King Zell's information is that there will be a non-general Direct in the second half of August and a general one in September. And that non-general Direct is very likely to be another Partner Showcase.

That is just his speculation so far. Remember, the insiders got quite a bit wrong apart from Kelios who did correctly say the time the direct would be announced and when it would air, so like Fatman, I'm keeping my eyes peeled for Irman Khan's word on the matter.

 

[MattOnwheels]

This ties into Direct discussion, so i'll post this because I find it odd:

still there pic.twitter.com/oMX6L2TH5O

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) July 30, 2020

"Hey, our reputation is in Omni-Shambles right now, what do we do?"

"Maybe we should announce a full dire-OHHHHH WAIT I HAVE AN IDEA! MEMES! Quick, Carl! Fire up the twitter!"

Sigh.... V_V: Any day now...

 

[JarBear]

Well, the goodness for Nintendo is they cannot disappoint the fans whatever they do since ... people’s expectations are already rock bottom. It can only stay the same or go up!

Win win!

... Sigh.

 

[skydogc]

Well, the goodness for Nintendo is they cannot disappoint the fans whatever they do since ... people’s expectations are already rock bottom. It can only stay the same or go up!

Win win!

... Sigh.

Nintendo: drilling noises intensify

 

[J. Bond]

That is just his speculation so far. Remember, the insiders got quite a bit wrong apart from Kelios who did correctly say the time the direct would be announced and when it would air, so like Fatman, I'm keeping my eyes peeled for Irman Khan's word on the matter.

Well either way Zell did say that there is a stop before the next GD and Kelios apparently also claimed the next Direct will be a Partner Showcase. So there being a Partner Showcase first is looking fairly likely.

 

[MattX20]

Well either way Zell did say that there is a stop before the next GD and Kelios apparently also claimed the next Direct will be a Partner Showcase. So there being a Partner Showcase first is looking fairly likely.

They also said that the Direct for the 20th would be a general mini. They can get details like the date right, but the contents wrong, so keep your expectations a little more flexible.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Wow, August 4th not 3rd! So it actually would be on my birthday! I really hope this comes true!

Well, not exactly... It's a predictive model so the idea is to get as close to the actual date as possible. For example, when I ran multiple predictive models for Min Min back on June 14, these were the three dates that the predictive models predicted would be significant: June 20th, June 23rd, and June 29th. Min Min was officially announced on June 22nd and released on June 29th so the dates produced were VERY accurate. June 20th was a Saturday so the next applicable date for an announcement was June 22nd, June 23rd was only one day off from Min-Min's announcement, and June 29th was right on the money. With this in mind, something doesn't have to happen on the 4th but suggests close to it.

Since June, Nintendo has done presentations on Mondays and Wednesdays. Based on this, this predictive model predicts a Smash announcement would be on either August 3rd or August 5th. Like last time when I did the Min Min model, we'll find out the accuracy very, very soon.

 

[Kremling Kommander]

I realized it’s been one year since the presentation of Hero

Kind of nostalgic to look back at the thread during those days and seeing everyone accept that the Geno costume was going to come back, only for the exact opposite the happen.

 

[MattX20]

Well, not exactly... It's a predictive model so the idea is to get as close to the actual date as possible. For example, when I ran multiple predictive models for Min Min back on June 14, these were the three dates that the predictive models predicted would be significant: June 20th, June 23rd, and June 29th. Min Min was officially announced on June 22nd and released on June 29th so the dates produced were VERY accurate. June 20th was a Saturday so the next applicable date for an announcement was June 22nd, June 23rd was only one day off from Min-Min's announcement, and June 29th was right on the money. With this in mind, something doesn't have to happen on the 4th but suggests close to it.

Since June, Nintendo has done presentations on Mondays and Wednesdays. Based on this, this predictive model predicts a Smash announcement would be on either August 3rd or August 5th. Like last time when I did the Min Min model, we'll find out the accuracy very, very soon.

The only thing we don't know yet is whether or not the supposed mini direct is going to be a general or a partners showcase. Once we do know, it'll narrow down the reveal and release dates for FP7

 

[J. Bond]

They also said that the Direct for the 20th would be a general mini. They can get details like the date right, but the contents wrong, so keep your expectations a little more flexible.

True. (although whether a third-party Direct counts as "general" or not can be vague, and it seems the insiders were just associating games they knew about with this Direct...) The next Direct being a Partner Showcase still seems more likely, given also Kelios' supposed comment; we shall see.

 

[MattOnwheels]

Well, the goodness for Nintendo is they cannot disappoint the fans whatever they do since ... people’s expectations are already rock bottom. It can only stay the same or go up!

Win win!

... Sigh.

I've been saying it here lately, but you are very correct. The worst part is it's all by design.


Once they have things to announce they're going to look like:

And they know it. They're going to milk this drought as much as they can within the parameters of their ideal profit margin.

 

[Firox]

I've been saying it here lately, but you are very correct. The worst part is it's all by design.


Once they have things to announce they're going to look like:

And they know it. They're going to milk this drought as much as they can within the parameters of their ideal profit margin.

Nintendo's marketing strategy:

"Let them eat cake crumbs..."

 

[Deleted member]

I'm honestly confused why some people are suggesting CP7 will get revealed in September now. If this rumored August Direct is coming, then I think its a damn good chance we could get the reveal of CP7 their

Well as you may have noticed, this thread (or maybe more accurately, this community) has lost quite a bit of the wind in its sails just because a few insiders who probably don't have any information anymore decided the best course of action was to take a meaty **** on everyone's expectations rather than just admit they don't have answers. Perhaps it's payback to the Nintendo community for being dickheads to the messengers when Nintendo fails to deliver.

... And look. I'm the first to jump on the conclusions express and take that train down to ****sville, but I always try to think of this stuff from a business perspective, because Nintendo is not our friend up the road who's just making toys to please the kids. Nintendo's a corporation, and last I checked those are self serving, faceless monsters who consume lives to print money. When I speculate good news, I try my best to separate myself from what I want, and instead try to say what's likely. What I want is the fairy godmother direct to show up ****in' tomorrow and reveal that Geno is CP7 and he releases tomorrow evening at 9 PM. What I think, just based on the fact that Nintendo is a business, is that they're not going to make unnecessary expenditures in an unsure market, especially when they undoubtedly have a huge stake in the purchasing power in the United States which absolutely refuses to stop looking like a third world country in terms of getting a god damned respiratory virus under control. If you're in this thread and still think ill of the idea, for Christ's sake be a hero and wear a mask. Anyway...

Late last year, I mentioned that Nintendo was using Smash DLC as a way to pad their year, so that they could have something to release even when no game was launching... the most obvious outlier to this being Banjo who launched to kick off an extremely stacked September (which saw Daemon X Machina, Link's Awakening, Dragon Quest XI S and a physical version of Tetris 99 [really, might as well include Astral Chain in that since it was August 30]). At the time, I had made mention of it because the outlook for Nintendo's 2020 was looking pretty kickass, so I figured they would likely not need to rely on Smash to carry a given month and that the investors probably wouldn't think too highly of the idea going into the fiscal year, but obviously they didn't expect the release of the sequel to SARS so soon and that threw a bit of a wrench into the cogs. One major reason I brought this up was to lend credence to the idea that fighters are very much done and ready to ship by the time Sakurai Presents is announced, and likely very close to ready to ship by the time the trailer is shown. I've also mentioned that I don't think that a delay in a character means a delay for all of the characters after that character, because Hero was delayed, and in part because of the nature of when characters are finished, and also because I, like many others, believe that characters are worked on at least two at a time, so Min Min, who was likely planned to release in April (which had nothing) releasing in June doesn't affect the release schedule of CP7, 8, etc.

So, barring any unforeseen complications in the development of the character, at least CP7 was to be revealed as part of Nintendo's E3 showcase, and if that character had gotten delayed, so be it, but they were revealed and that would be that. If they were feeling extra ballsy, they likely would have slapped "Summer" on that release. But, it's best to stop focusing on what would have happened and start focusing on what did happen: all they showed off so far that would have been at E3 was Paper Mario, and I also believe that Pokemon Snap would have very likely been there as well - Pokemon Company is likely not the kind of people who give a **** about viruses or any other potential destroyers of society, they have a stagnant franchise to shill and by God they're gonna do it, and we see that Paper Mario got a release in July... So July was probably barren by design because again, Nintendo has to make what they have last. This approach has likely been tailor made to keep their monthly profits from slipping too far (a tough task given that their earnings are gonna be skewed as all hell by Animal Crossing's strong showing out the gate) and keep their quarterly report looking good - which... Nintendo's fiscal year ended on March 31, so their first quarter 2020 ended back on June 30/July 1 depending on how you like to define it. They did what they could to make it look good, and now they have to make Q2 look good as well - so far they have Paper Mario. August has to have something from a business standpoint and since most of us are probably willing to admit that Nintendo speaks money fluently, they understand that. August will have something of significance and I think it is highly likely to be a reveal and release of CP7 given that NateDrake has shared the concrete fact that Japan has a 30 day period in which video games must be announced so that they can be preordered before release. Barring an announcement today or tomorrow, August will not have a release of a full retail first party video game, that much is almost certain, so Nintendo's hand is forced - they have to release some sort of paid DLC, and unless Crown Tundra is getting bumped extremely forward, I can only think of one game that has that lined up for it.

 

[Opossum]

This ties into Direct discussion, so i'll post this because I find it odd:

still there pic.twitter.com/oMX6L2TH5O

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) July 30, 2020

"Hey, our reputation is in Omni-Shambles right now, what do we do?"

"Maybe we should announce a full dire-OHHHHH WAIT I HAVE AN IDEA! MEMES! Quick, Carl! Fire up the twitter!"

Sigh.... V_V: Any day now...

The people in charge of their social media don't dictate when things get revealed. I don't see how this is strange at all, really.

 

[Fatmanonice]

More on this discussion of August Directs, I decided to review all the global Directs ever in August and I just want to show you all what I discovered:

August 7th, 2013 (a Wednesday)

August 9th, 2013 (a Friday)

August 4th, 2014 (a Monday)

August 8th, 2018 (a Wednesday)

Using (satanic magic) a calendar app, I decided to look at all these dates and the one thing they all had in common? They were all during the first full week of August.

 

[Funktastic]

The Ides of August are upon us then (hopefully).

 

[Deleted member]

Using (satanic magic)

Nintendo fans after nearly a year of no general direct be like

 

[MattX20]

More on this discussion of August Directs, I decided to review all the global Directs ever in August and I just want to show you all what I discovered:

August 7th, 2013 (a Wednesday)

August 9th, 2013 (a Friday)

August 4th, 2014 (a Monday)

August 8th, 2018 (a Wednesday)

Using (satanic magic) a calendar app, I decided to look at all these dates and the one thing they all had in common? They were all during the first full week of August.

And next week is the first full week of August

 

[Fatmanonice]

So that's now six predictive models that suggest something noteworthy the first full week of August:

-New disappears on the main Smash site 2-3 weeks on average before a new reveal. Min Min's disappeared on July 13th and August 3rd marks exactly three weeks.

-New Horizons and Ring Fit spirits were permanently added into the game on July 21st. LTO spirits are "added back in" before new spirits are added or there's an upcoming major update. The last time this happened was June 9th with Cuphead and Warframe. Min Min was announced on June 22th, 13 days later. 13 days from July 21st? August 3rd.

-If a character is revealed in a Direct and released in the next month, we've determined that the average is 41 days. Counting backwards from our theorycrafted September 14th, that puts us at August 4th.

-Every global Direct in August up to this point has been during the first full week of August.

-Pretty stacked evidence at this point that 7 will indeed be a September release and characters are only released during the same month as their announcement if they are shadowdropped due to delays. Both Byleth and Min-Min were delayed so 7 is likely on schedule, signaling a Direct reveal.

-Min-Min's reveal and release were pushed back about two months. If E3 was supposed to be on the first full Tuesday of June, pushing it back two months would have the "reschedule" during the first full week of August.

 

[MattX20]

So that's now six predictive models that suggest something noteworthy the first full week of August:

-New disappears on the main Smash site 2-3 weeks on average before a new reveal. Min Min's disappeared on July 13th and August 3rd marks exactly three weeks.

-New Horizons and Ring Fit spirits were permanently added into the game on July 21st. LTO spirits are "added back in" before new spirits are added or there's an upcoming major update. The last time this happened was June 9th with Cuphead and Warframe. Min Min was announced on June 22th, 13 days later. 13 days from July 21st? August 3rd.

-If a character is revealed in a Direct and released in the next month, we've determined that the average is 41 days. Counting backwards from our theorycrafted September 14th, that puts us at August 4th.

-Every global Direct in August up to this point has been during the first full week of August.

-Pretty stacked evidence at this point that 7 will indeed be a September release and characters are only released during the same month as their announcement if they are shadowdropped due to delays. Both Byleth and Min-Min were delayed so 7 is likely on schedule, signaling a Direct reveal.

-Min-Min's reveal and release were pushed back about two months. If E3 was supposed to be on the first full Tuesday of June, pushing it back two months would have the "reschedule" during the first full week of August.

And currently, there's one more scheduled maintenance period on Nintendo's website.

 

[Spatulo]

And currently, there's one more scheduled maintenance period on Nintendo's website. View attachment 280554

That’s some really ****ing long maintenance too. Three and a half hours and ALL network services will be down.

 

[CannonStreak]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Has anyone posted this yet?

 

[AceAttorney9000]

And currently, there's one more scheduled maintenance period on Nintendo's website. View attachment 280554

Only 4 more days... hopefully it will be worth the weight.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Has anyone posted this yet?

Saw it in the Newcomer Thread. Apparently, the guy managed to predict the existence of Eiyuden Chronicle, so that's one point in his favor. Whether he's right about a Direct mini on the 10th, that remains to be seen.

 

[domriver]

Well, the goodness for Nintendo is they cannot disappoint the fans whatever they do since ... people’s expectations are already rock bottom. It can only stay the same or go up!

Win win!

... Sigh.

LOL this reminded me of that pic on twitter it says "WE HAD LOW EXPECTATIONS FOR YOU BUT HOLY ****"! LOL

 

[Deleted member]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Has anyone posted this yet?

new rando, who dis

 

[Fatmanonice]

And currently, there's one more scheduled maintenance period on Nintendo's website. View attachment 280554

So, huh, 7 predictive models then.

 

[CannonStreak]

new rando, who dis

Whoever it is, it will be moments before Nintendo finds this tweet and delays the Direct because of this.

 

[Deleted member]

So, huh, 7 predictive models then.

Did you say... 7?

 

[AceAttorney9000]

Whoever it is, it will be moments before Nintendo finds this tweet and delays the Direct because of this.

Leakers: Time to tell everyone about all the hype **** Nintendo's got planned!
Nintendo: