Before the release of ultimate, there were a lot of people talking against verge's claim that Incineroar and Ken were going to be in the game, including myself. I thought exactly like you and some others here, that it's just talk and maybe he only got lucky to get simon, isabelle, ridley and all the others. But you know what happened, and lots of people were very disappointed, not just because of that but also the grinch stuff, which he was adamant that it was fake.
I changed my mind about verge since then, and even though I dont believe anything he says, i give it more weight, because even though he's an *******, he's earned some credit. He then lost a bit when he made assumptions about the feb direct, but it turned out it was based on bad info, not his main sources.
I have no problem with holding out and being skeptical, I'm always skeptical of anything, but I I don't recommend ignoring possibilities that have real chances. Just because they exist doesn't mean they'll happen or that there's no reason to be open to different, and there's always more to the truth of things anyway.
For some reason I feel Sora has a real chance too. We havent heard too much stuff about him tho. I do wonder if maybe getting involved with disney would be too much, too.
Because bringing Cloud back was a ***** apparently. SE wanted him to return as DLC apparently.
In theory it makes sense for it to satisfy both parties. Another reason for Nintendo to push the 'Everyone is Here!' mantra and a reason for Square to make an extra quick buck by offering/fulfilling the request of 2 characters. One in base and one as DLC.
There , that's my issue with how people think there would be a second rep.
While there has been rumors from leakers that Cloud was extremely hard to get back for base (it was the first ever time SE let another company use their IP for a base game that they didn't developped) , they still are rumors
Granted , knowing SE , this kind of mindset wouldn't surprise me at all.
However , Nintendo chosed the DLC , not Square Enix. Except if Nintendo and Sora Limited/Sakurai wrote a deal to get back Cloud in exchange of a DLC character... Sakurai , and Nintendo are in no way forced to ask Square Enix for a DLC character.
Especially since others companies are easier to work with ; Bandai Namco in particular come to mind. Or even new companies to Smash.
Or heck , stuff like Camelot , Pokemons Company , or first party stuff.
No matter how you slice it , a SE character for DLC is one of the hardest route to take for Nintendo. Impossible ? Nope , Cloud say hi. However , it's noticible that SE care more about direct profit than long term profit.
Instead of trying to get people interested in FF as a whole (adding a bunch of FF spirits/ATs/costumes) , they just gave Cloud and a few summons.
I know that the rights for some FF characters are tricky , but is it seriously that bad ?
Heck , couldn't they give Nintendo some Octopath Traveler and Bravely Default stuff in Smash? Not even a damn Agnès spirit ?
This show that SE want one thing from their character in Smash : direct profit and direct crosd-promotion.
Cloud was a compromise when you think about it. They initally proposed more recent FF characters , but Sakurai asked for Cloud.
It was likely their only possibility to get something in Smash and... Everyone love Cloud , and he's Mr.Final Fantasy guy , so it's still cross-promotion.
So they are also willing to do slight compromises... (Like they did with 2B in Soulcalibur(or Tekken?) , she was a mix of fan-demand , direct profit , and cross-promotion.)
But it's always for direct profit and cross-promotion.
And let's not talk about how convulted their music rights can get...
My problem with this argument is that you need to assume that the "Cloud was a pain in the ass to get back" rumor to be true. Wich honestly... Is pretty likely.
However , on top of that , you have to assume that they had to strike the deal "We have Cloud in base and you have a DLC spot" , while we don't even know when DLC choices started , and when they got Cloud back.
It's simply assuming too much for me to be a solid argument.
Because then , why should they pick a SE rep over anyone else ?
People will start saying "To push DQ".
This is Enix's franchise. Not Nintendo's franchise.
I'm sure they get a cut of the profit through Switch's releases/re-release in a way... But at the end of the day , SE will be victorious.
Their franchise will get popular , and... Nothing will stop them to be more multi platform again.
Furthermore , others third party franchise didn't get this treatment when it was easier , would please fans , and would actually benefit everyone ; no 2nd Sonic rep.
Be it Tails , Shadow , Knuckles , or Dr. Eggman.
Sonic has been a franchise that's been on Nintendo consoles since the GameCube , and the games that weren't on Nintendo consoles were stuff like 06 and Free Riders.
Sonic is iconic , and despise the poor quality of his games sometimes , they sell well because he's iconic and he has passionate fans.
He would be the less risky to promote his Switch releases through Smash , yet they didn't do it. Worse , Shadow and Knuckles are AT'd , and Tails and Eggman got spirit'd. (+ The costumes)
So doing something so complicated to just push DQ Switch releases ? Yes , there is also SE's relationship with Nintendo...
But seriously. Even without Smash they are doing great. (Octopath+all the FFs+all the DQs , it's huge !)
If they applied this logic "Better relationship , so better library for the Switch , more good games , more happy customers"... Why not focusing on Konami and Atlus ?
Konami still didn't released a MGS on Switch , and a Castlevania collection has only been announced recently. There is only Super Bomberman R ! While they have 3 characters in Smash and are clearly willing to do stuff with Nintendo !
And for Atlus... Where... Where the **** is Persona 5? Like seriously , where it is ? We got the Warriors Persona spin-off , the PS4 got a ehanced version of P5... But the Switch doesn't even have P5? Seriously?
I'll stop before getting too much out-topic.
I think I made my points clear.
I honestly don't believe anymore that a SE rep is likely.
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Here's my problem with leakers :
Vergeben was right for base game.
As LoZ18 was right for the E3 if 2018.
However , as of now , nobody has gotten anything correct on DLC. (Verge said he heard about Plant but didn't tell it because of potential backlash... Yeah , we believe you Vergeben, yeah...)
What Vergeben has said for base (Minecraft content + SE rep) could either be fake , scrapped , or for DLC.
But he can't prove anything without revealing his source , Wich he's not going to do.
Second , Tansut.
First he reveal Cloud ONE DAY before his reveal , in a more criptic and subtle way...
Then, in 2018 he's like "Oh yeah Erdrick's in guys , believe me , SE ****ed up , everything leaked". When he also was the one who didn't wanted to ruin the surprise with Cloud ? Yet he do it with Erdrick , A YEAR IN ADVANCE ?
And we all know how much SE hate leakers.
That's why they have Geno. They Geno flash every damn leaker they find.
And we just have to "believe it on that one !".
And with how janky Brave is...
I'll start believing people on DLC when they'll get something right on DLC.
Wich literally nobody has.
Because base game is easier to leak. Marketing material , so many companies to contact , big focus of the year ...
What is there with DLCs ?
Only the companies talking about one character, one stage , and a few music tracks in some private backrooms while they focus on new releases.
Except if you are a higher up , or a MONUMENTAL mistake happen , it's just plain ol' impossible to know anything about DLC.
While they where right in the past , they are talking about a different beast now.
It's like saying "He taught a dog how to be obedient , so he can do the same with a tiger."
Yeah , he has the skills to teach stuff to animals , but messing up a with a dog is less dangerous than messing up with a tiger.
If anyone here feel offended , just know that it is not my attention.
I try my best to express my opinion in a way that everyone would understand , since my English is a bit poor. (I'm french)
So when I insist on something LIKE THAT , it's no to say "Shut up ! You're wrong and I'm right!" , but more "This is a very important info for my argument".
Anyway , thank you both for responding to me.