I had brought up Nintendo's stock a while back but looking at it again last night I woke up thinking on how speculation on Nintendo news within a month's time have impacted its price. By looking at the stock's price starting off from July, it can be seen that the stock reached its peak on July 7th. Quite a few things were going for this particular date. Albeit stock prices reflect mostly the financial performance of a Company, investor speculation does influence said price as well. Consequently, investor speculation is influenced not only be looking at the Company's financial forecasts and news, but also by public opinion and expectations (and here we have the lot of insider rumors, YouTubers uploading speculation videos, and brand ambassadors and other figures expressing themselves about the Company). Now, for things that were going for July 7th.
- Leading up to that date, a theory of a Smash reveal for Geno had gained strength with the alignment of many sevens. The next fighter to be announced would be Challenger Pack 7, making them the 77th fighter in the roster, and the announcement could potential be on the 7th day of the 7th month. It seemed to perfect and alas, it did not come true. However, this was speculation but it did do the rounds on the Internet.
- On this day Nintendo announced three more games being added to the Nintendo Switch Online service; one of them being Donkey Kong Country for the SNES Library. This was a game that was missing from the SNES library and was arduously expected and requested to be added to the online service.
After that date, no other relevant news came out aside from the usual reminder that Paper Mario: The Origami King was on its way. The stock price took a near 2k Yen dive that day and continue to decrease throughout the week. Almost forgot about the Nintendo Treehouse stream from the 10th. The announcement of that stream may have influenced in a brief halt on the stock's price decrease, with the added announcement that after the Paper Mario gameplay, they'd reveal something new from WayForward. All who saw the stream know what happened. Curiously this did not translate to a stock price decrease. Between the 14th and 15th of July there was a slight sudden increase on the stock, perhaps due to the announcement of the LEGO Nintendo Entertainment System set announcement (on the 14th). Quite the nice collectors item. It gave airs of something notable perhaps coming along soon. The stock price continued to decrease the following days since no more news came up; that is until July 20th. Literally starting off July 20th (at midnight), Nintendo announces a Direct Mini Partners Showcase for the same day. "FINALLY some news!", many surely thought, but as the Direct Mini came and went, not all were left satisfied with what was shown (except for SMT fans). Albeit to this day, said Direct Mini stands with the following YouTube stats
- Over 3.1 million views
- 101k likes
- 76k dislikes
The message of dislike came loud and clear; the stock began a price decrease from the 21st and onward but it entered a period of the market being closed for four days.
Approaching the weekend and following the close of the Tokyo stock market, XBOX had its Games Showcase presentation (on the 23rd). One game in particular that was shown off during the pre-show caught the eye of many Nights/Sonic fans when Balan Wonderworld was revealed. It was later made known on the following day (the 24th) that the game would also be coming to the Nintendo Switch. Interesting, very nice. A good sign that perhaps some good third party titles would be making their way to the Switch. Yet no news from Nintendo and the stock price again would continue to drop, taking another dip on the 30th. The decreases in price throughout the month of July may not seem like such a big deal due to the currency exchange rate (translated to USD, the decrease from July 7th to July 31st was of approximately over $40 of an approximately $440 priced stock), but this goes to show that speculation within the industry, as well as announcements and presentations do have an impact over the stock's price.
We are now in August, and with yet even more rumors of potential Nintendo announcement dates circulating social media outlets, the stock has experienced an increased since the month began, accentuating from the 3rd to the 4th. Factors that may be influencing this increase include:
- The fast approach to the August 6th quarterly earnings release schedule. Investors may be hoping that before the earnings release, Nintendo might drop some meaningful game news (a Direct). It could serve as a cushion for an early 2021 downward forecast.
- Sony's State of Play presentation taking place also on August 6th. On these presentations Sony will most likely go over PS4 exclusives however, one never knows when an eye-catching multi-platform title may be revealed.
For the time being, all we can do is wait (as frustrating as that may sound). For reference here's a link to Nintendo's stock (with chart).
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/7974:JP
