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And Mario doesn't have a cameo in a new Wreckit-Ralph movie, and Nintendo and Universal are supporting each other, and Disney and Universal are major rivals. Sora is even more unlikely to happen nowI agree with a lot of things you said. I'm not being biased of anything, but from my perspective, Geno seems as if he's the most likely rep. Remember that Sakurai and the fans have been wanting him for 10-17 years; if Sakurai gets Nintendo on board, then I think Nintendo might be choosing Geno. However, I might be shooting myself in the foot and going a little overboard with that I just said. I have to say this: Geno is a half Square and Nintendo character, I think he would be the most logical sense because he is cheaper than Chrono and an Octopath Traveler character, also considering that Square and Nintendo made Geno together, Square owns them but Nintendo knows Geno and Mallow would be the cheapest third-parties from Square to achieve so easily. Slime would be very expensive and a little weird; DQ XI isn't coming to the Switch for quite sometime, nor is there even an official release date; some say it's late 2018 or mid 2019, and if we're getting the Square character as DLC first, then why would they use Slime to promote the game early? I'd be surprised if Slime did get chosen over Geno.
I'd actually be surprised if Sora got in over Geno, but people are are missing the point that Sora is NO LONGER a Square rep. Here's a good example: Sora and Donkey Kong really have the same property rights going on. Donkey Kong was originally made and owned by Rare, now he's 100% owned by Nintendo because Rare gave Nintendo the Donkey Kong characters. It was completely confirmed that Disney owns Sora 100%, which makes him a Disney rep and no longer a Square rep. Donkey Kong would be considered a Nintendo rep now, and Sora would be considered a Disney rep now. And like I said before with Slime, Kingdom Hearts 3 is not coming to the Switch, nor is it even happening. The KH3 Director said that he has no plans on wanting KH3 on the Switch until Xbox/PS4's KH3 releases in January, which means it would take a long time for the game to port on the Switch; even Square said they wanted it on Switch, and if they knew it was coming to the Switch, they wouldn't say anything because you know how they are with their own leaks? They're very strict. If Nintendo doesn't see Sora being on a major Nintendo console like Chrono or Geno were with the SNES, then they're not gonna waste their time with using millions of money to buy Sora's rights to get in Smash, remember that they get no benefit out of Sora either. Until Sora is on a major console, like the Switch, then I can see Sora coming for DLC. Does this mean I am against Sora's inclusion? Absolutely not, I'd be fine with it, but it's very unlikely.
Geno's been wanted for years and has a huge fanbase, especially in Japan because he did nail #3 on an old Japan Brawl poll back from 2006; Sonic and Mega Man were above Geno, that's INSANE. Geno's inclusion would make Square and Nintendo so much money, I mean, Super Mario RPG gained so much popularity over the years, and don't forget that it was also on the SNES Classic and acknowledged by Nintendo's Twitter earlier this year. Everybody would be buying Geno, that includes his DLC character and amiibo; his profit would go to Nintendo and Square, 50% of the profit for each company. They would be making the wrong move if they chose another Square character because Geno's been the most wanted Square rep for ages, even more wanted than Cloud, and Geno's popularity has insanely peaked because of being a wanted newcomer Smash Ultimate. Geno belongs in Nintendo games, this is his final chance. NOW, could you imagine if they got Geno and Mallow for DLC? That'd be great, but it's unlikely... however, if they do get Mallow, I'd so love him to be a part of Geno's final smash.
Sorry for the long post.