Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[DarkShadow20]

I'm sorry if that upset you, but it was off-topic, unnecessary, and just bashing on an already dead horse. Besides that one response, I haven't been antagonistic to you at all.

Uh, plenty of people have just talked about FP2/or Byleth being released today or about other characters besides Geno, but mine was singled out for being off topic because I was "bashing" a character? I wasn't even bashing Byleth, just stating a fact. Byleth did receive a lot of negativity, just look at the amount of dislikes on the reveal video. Personally, I like FE and Byleth finally seems like a unique FE character and I like their inclusion a lot better than Joker's who is my least favorite character addition ever. Now that's bashing a character.

 

[MisterMike]

I just tried out Byleth in Classic Mode. He's not bad, actually. I might have to get used to him, but he is fun. I will try him out more later.

I just beat Byleth's Classic Mode on 9.9, and it was a pretty miserable experience. The first three fights were braindead easy, the fourth fight was mildly difficult, but the fifth fight with the Corrins was just awful. They kept stunlocking me to death over and over, and because Byleth moves at the speed of a paraplegic sloth it's really hard to get out of their range. But opponents aside... I dunno, I don't think Byleth's really my style. I'm more of an up close and personal kind of fighter, and spacing out their attacks is pretty dodgy for me. Also, there's too much endlag on most of their attacks and some of their normal moves are way too weak. And who's bright idea was it to put a tipper on their goddamn dash attack?

 

[TooManyToastahs]

Hey guys, gals, and all you wonderful lurkers, I need your help. I’ve been letting a particular though marinate in my mind for the past couple days and I think I might go though with it.

I was thinking of making a Super Mario RPG archive sort of website. It’d be filled with all sorts of interesting things like advertisements, official art, merchandise, etc. It could also include some preservation of community made things, like speedrun VODs, fanart, cosplay etc. again.

So here’s where I need your help.
1. Does something like this already exist?
2. If it doesn’t, would you guys be open to help with finding info and content to preserve and archive?

Thanks in advance, if this is something people would be interested in I’d love to make it a 2020 passion project.

 

[link2702]

Hey guys, gals, and all you wonderful lurkers, I need your help. I’ve been letting a particular though marinate in my mind for the past couple days and I think I might go though with it.

I was thinking of making a Super Mario RPG archive sort of website. It’d be filled with all sorts of interesting things like advertisements, official art, merchandise, etc. It could also include some preservation of community made things, like speedrun VODs, fanart, cosplay etc. again.

So here’s where I need your help.
1. Does something like this already exist?
2. If it doesn’t, would you guys be open to help with finding info and content to preserve and archive?

Thanks in advance, if this is something people would be interested in I’d love to make it a 2020 passion project.

something like this USED to exist, years ago, but I for the life of me can't find it anymore. It was around pre-brawl days. It was one of those websites stuck in that weird transition period from 90s website designs, to more modern ones.

Unfortunately once wikipedia and "wikis" became a thing, I think that site died quickly as things like super mario wikis arrived. I can't remember what it was called, I think like Super mario legendary seven stars or something like that. It was a pun on mario rpg's own name, with an extra letter or something.

I wouldn't mind a new site taking its place, the only problem is.....well, the things that killed the original still exist. Wiki's that have all this old content pretty much well covered. You'd have to find some stuff that definitely isn't already up there/easily found, and the thing is...once you do find it the wiki's will pretty much use it anyway.

 

[TooManyToastahs]

something like this USED to exist, years ago, but I for the life of me can't find it anymore. It was around pre-brawl days. It was one of those websites stuck in that weird transition period from 90s website designs, to more modern ones.

Unfortunately once wikipedia and "wikis" became a thing, I think that site died quickly as things like super mario wikis arrived. I can't remember what it was called, I think like Super mario legendary seven stars or something like that. It was a pun on mario rpg's own name, with an extra letter or something.

I wouldn't mind a new site taking its place, the only problem is.....well, the things that killed the original still exist. Wiki's that have all this old content pretty much well covered. You'd have to find some stuff that definitely isn't already up there/easily found, and the thing is...once you do find it the wiki's will pretty much use it anyway.

Ah, good point, lots of wikis cover most of this stuff. Perhaps my idea could be better utilized on something like social media or whatnot, maybe something to shake it up a bit, who knows.

Back to the drawing board! Thanks for the help!

 

[Kewl0210]

I thought this was fun

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Deleted member]

I thought this was fun

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Big YouTubers are rooting for Geno, Best Buy and Walmart are rooting for Geno, Twitter has been rooting for Geno, the Smash fanbase have been rooting for him for a long time, most likely NoA have been rooting for him, Japanese Smash fans have been rooting for him, and Sakurai is rooting for him. Not to mention I think the outcry is bigger than Brawl and Smash 4. There is no way Nintendo is not aware of the demand for Geno at this point especially before Vol. 2 was decided.

 

[Firox]

Ok, guys, patch 7.0 just dropped and I noticed something suspicious. You know how they buffed some of the lower tier characters? Well.... ♫ one of these things is not like the other ♪ .......anyone else notice Cloud?! He was nerfed for being too OP in Sm4sh, but now some serious buffs?! I think I know how a certain phone call went....

SE Executive: "Mr. Sakurai, we've noticed that Cloud isn't getting the competitive attention he deserves. Cloud is a diva. He needs to strut his stuff."

Sakurai: "What is it you're asking?"

SE Exec: "Well, if you still want a certain puppet in the game, you might want to *ahem* sweeten the deal."

Sakurai: "Say no more...." (turns to dev team) "...Boys? We got some buffin' to do..."


(DISCLAIMER: Before people attack me, this post was entirely satirical.....mostly.....kinda......maybe just a little....)

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Big YouTubers are rooting for Geno, Best Buy and Walmart are rooting for Geno, Twitter has been rooting for Geno, the Smash fanbase have been rooting for him for a long time, most likely NoA have been rooting for him, Japanese Smash fans have been rooting for him, and Sakurai is rooting for him. There is no way Nintendo is not aware of the demand for Geno at this point especially before Vol. 2 was decided.

But it just so happens that the place Sakurai gets his public opinion of smash is from Gamefaqs

 

[QQS]

I thought this was fun

There was a problem fetching the tweet

OMG! Geno joins the battle! (#77)

 

[Icewolff92]

Ok, guys, patch 7.0 just dropped and I noticed something suspicious. You know how they buffed some of the lower tier characters? Well.... ♫ one of these things is not like the other ♪ .......anyone else notice Cloud?! He was nerfed for being too OP in Sm4sh, but now some serious buffs?! I think I know how a certain phone call went....

SE Executive: "Mr. Sakurai, we've noticed that Cloud isn't getting the competitive attention he deserves. Cloud is a diva. He needs to strut his stuff."

Sakurai: "What is it you're asking?"

SE Exec: "Well, if you still want a certain puppet in the game, you might want to *ahem* sweeten the deal."

Sakurai: "Say no more...." (turns to dev team) "...Boys? We got some buffin' to do..."


(DISCLAIMER: Before people attack me, this post was entirely satirical.....mostly.....kinda......maybe just a little....)

The whole patch has been insane in terms of buffs. (cry happy tears with what Zelda was given)

Random off topic disclaimer... Byleth should be renamed the shield destroy, I mean jebus, Even the bow destroys them

 

[Malo Mart]

I thought this was fun

There was a problem fetching the tweet

View attachment 260130

OMG! Geno joins the battle! (#77)

Imagine if one of Sakurai's pic of the day was exactly this. It'd kill me faster than a perfectly timed Geno Whirl would!

 

[ActualGarbage]

The whole patch has been insane in terms of buffs. (cry happy tears with what Zelda was given)

Random off topic disclaimer... Byleth should be renamed the shield destroy, I mean jebus, Even the bow destroys them

Byleth charging up her down B
"Your shield privileges, hand them over."

 

[Malo Mart]

About Byleth themselves. I was and still am pretty disappointed with them in many ways, not gonna lie, but I still managed to enjoy them, complete their whole set of Spirits and get my ass kicked in their Classic route, oof. Fun character, but I suck at them currently lmao. It's Sakurai working his magic, what can I say? So not a bad pick by any means, just probably not released at the best time if you ask me.

One silver lining about them that can't be understated though, is that Byleth being both 1st party AND from a franchise already in the game breaks another barrier for potential future DLC characters, including our puppet boi. I mean, it'd be a bit silly for Sak to just reject a fighter for either of those reasons, but still it's something people can and did use against Geno and other similar characters that's completely gone, so let's rejoice! We're getting there guys!

sidenote: I also got a amiibo today and ahhhhhh it's ****ing awesome, gimme a geno amiibo

sidenote 2: cacomallow is still real, and don't you forget it

 

[Icewolff92]

Byleth charging up her down B
"Your shield privileges, hand them over."

I¨m not talking down b special, I¨m talking the axe in general... O.o

One silver lining about them that can't be understated though, is that Byleth being both 1st party AND from a franchise already in the game breaks another barrier for potential future DLC characters, including our puppet boi. I mean, it'd be a bit silly for Sak to just reject a fighter for either of those reasons, but still it's something people can and did use against Geno and other similar characters that's completely gone, so let's rejoice! We're getting there guys!

Thank you. I¨ve has been trying to telling that to folks, only to mostly get "hurrdurr fire emblem sucks" as an answer

 

[SSGuy]

No, all he said in reply to Walmart's tweet is: i agree with your Fighter Pack 6 choice

They had Crash as 6 and Geno as 7. He said nothing about any of the other characters besides Crash.

I honestly missed this. Can you show me where they are saying Geno is 7 and they are agreeing with it?

About Byleth themselves. I was and still am pretty disappointed with them in many ways, not gonna lie, but I still managed to enjoy them, complete their whole set of Spirits and get my ass kicked in their Classic route, oof. Fun character, but I suck at them currently lmao. It's Sakurai working his magic, what can I say? So not a bad pick by any means, just probably not released at the best time if you ask me.

One silver lining about them that can't be understated though, is that Byleth being both 1st party AND from a franchise already in the game breaks another barrier for potential future DLC characters, including our puppet boi. I mean, it'd be a bit silly for Sak to just reject a fighter for either of those reasons, but still it's something people can and did use against Geno and other similar characters that's completely gone, so let's rejoice! We're getting there guys!

sidenote: I also got a amiibo today and ahhhhhh it's ****ing awesome, gimme a geno amiibo

sidenote 2: cacomallow is still real, and don't you forget it

To add further onto this, my favorite part of Byleth's reveal is that is really helps the community keep their expectations in check. Not every character moving forward needs to be this godlike AAA pick that has to best the pick that came before it.

The community speculation was pretty insane but now we can just look to not be at each other's throats and logically decide which characters we could be looking at. With that being said, Geno to me seems to be more believable thanks to Byleth existing. Not a guarantee, but I have peace of mind knowing that we can expect represented franchises getting back into the swing of things. Mario seems primed for more characters whether people like it or not.

 

[Fatmanonice]

The whole patch has been insane in terms of buffs. (cry happy tears with what Zelda was given)

Random off topic disclaimer... Byleth should be renamed the shield destroy, I mean jebus, Even the bow destroys them

Agreed. Ultimate has been spot on with the patches to a scary degree. Slight nerfs to top tiers, huge buffs to low and mid tiers. I've been really impressed because this has turned into a game where you can pick just about anyone and get good mileage with them. Tiers obviously still exist but nobody in Ultimate is genuinely bad or totally irrelevant competitively.

 

[Lyncario]

The whole patch has been insane in terms of buffs. (cry happy tears with what Zelda was given)

Random off topic disclaimer... Byleth should be renamed the shield destroy, I mean jebus, Even the bow destroys them

I wish I could cry of joy for Pit and Dark Pit, execpt that their hitboxxes are still garbage.

 

[Vector Victor]

Big YouTubers are rooting for Geno, Best Buy and Walmart are rooting for Geno, Twitter has been rooting for Geno, the Smash fanbase have been rooting for him for a long time, most likely NoA have been rooting for him, Japanese Smash fans have been rooting for him, and Sakurai is rooting for him. Not to mention I think the outcry is bigger than Brawl and Smash 4. There is no way Nintendo is not aware of the demand for Geno at this point especially before Vol. 2 was decided.

It makes you wonder: what else does Nintendo need to convince them to just make Geno playable already? It's like none of them want to give him that little push over the finish line to playability unless they literally have no option left.

 

[link2702]

The whole patch has been insane in terms of buffs. (cry happy tears with what Zelda was given)

Random off topic disclaimer... Byleth should be renamed the shield destroy, I mean jebus, Even the bow destroys them

Except for ganon

*curses in gerudo*

Seriously so many other low tiers get buffs and the king of evil gets nothing.

Not really counting the shield size increase since pretty much EVERYONE got that.

 

[riggsbass]

Hey guys, gals, and all you wonderful lurkers, I need your help. I’ve been letting a particular though marinate in my mind for the past couple days and I think I might go though with it.

I was thinking of making a Super Mario RPG archive sort of website. It’d be filled with all sorts of interesting things like advertisements, official art, merchandise, etc. It could also include some preservation of community made things, like speedrun VODs, fanart, cosplay etc. again.

So here’s where I need your help.
1. Does something like this already exist?
2. If it doesn’t, would you guys be open to help with finding info and content to preserve and archive?

Thanks in advance, if this is something people would be interested in I’d love to make it a 2020 passion project.

This is a great idea, honestly I think you should consider working with the Operation Starfall team. This type of content would be a great addendum to the Geno spotlight they've been building and would do great to further spread the good word of our most wanted puppet. Just an idea!

 

[DarkShadow20]

Hey guys, gals, and all you wonderful lurkers, I need your help. I’ve been letting a particular though marinate in my mind for the past couple days and I think I might go though with it.

I was thinking of making a Super Mario RPG archive sort of website. It’d be filled with all sorts of interesting things like advertisements, official art, merchandise, etc. It could also include some preservation of community made things, like speedrun VODs, fanart, cosplay etc. again.

So here’s where I need your help.
1. Does something like this already exist?
2. If it doesn’t, would you guys be open to help with finding info and content to preserve and archive?

Thanks in advance, if this is something people would be interested in I’d love to make it a 2020 passion project.

That would be cool. I have a lot of rare SMRPG merchandise from Japan so I could help with that.

 

[TooManyToastahs]

This is a great idea, honestly I think you should consider working with the Operation Starfall team. This type of content would be a great addendum to the Geno spotlight they've been building and would do great to further spread the good word of our most wanted puppet. Just an idea!

Perhaps I should reach out to them, good idea! If this is something they’re also interested in then I could always use that site as a platform to promote their campaign as well, so it’s definitely an idea worth considering.

That would be cool. I have a lot of rare SMRPG merchandise from Japan so I could help with that.

That would help a ton if you’d be willing to send some images and offer some details on them to me after I get the site up and running

L link2702 made a good point about the wikis, but honestly I think I might go through with making this site a thing after all. The worst that could happen is I waste some time, and that’s not really too bad.
(Oh and quick addendum, if anyone has some experience working with web design and you’re interested in this project, shoot me a PM, I could use all the help I could get)

 

[Firox]

Agreed. Ultimate has been spot on with the patches to a scary degree. Slight nerfs to top tiers, huge buffs to low and mid tiers. I've been really impressed because this has turned into a game where you can pick just about anyone and get good mileage with them. Tiers obviously still exist but nobody in Ultimate is genuinely bad or totally irrelevant competitively.

Except maybe Lil Mac. Poor guy is just fundamentally mis-designed. A guy with no air game in Ultimate is like bringing a banana to a gun fight.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Except maybe Lil Mac. Poor guy is just fundamentally mis-designed. A guy with no air game in Ultimate is like bringing a banana to a gun fight.

He's coming at some point. The patches are weird because they focus on like ten characters at a time. We have at least 6 major patches left so the odds are definitely in his favor to not be total ass eventually.

 

[mynameisBlade]

Except maybe Lil Mac. Poor guy is just fundamentally mis-designed. A guy with no air game in Ultimate is like bringing a banana to a gun fight.

Crazy enough, both of my closest friends I play with want him nerfed. I'm not too bad with him, BUT they can't seem to realize how weak he is due to 80% of Smash being air combat. Little Mac is NOTHING in the air. If you can hold your ground and not get grabbed his hits are extremely powerful.

Once you get thrown off the edge though, his recovery options are aweful.. He def needs better recovery. He should be able to UP B then SIDE B. UP B should go further and be completely invincible. I want Little Mac to be even better than he was in Sm4sh.

Walmart tweeted about Crash and Geno? O.o Did I read that right?

 

[DarkShadow20]

Crazy enough, both of my closest friends I play with want him nerfed. I'm not too bad with him, BUT they can't seem to realize how weak he is due to 80% of Smash being air combat. Little Mac is NOTHING in the air. If you can hold your ground and not get grabbed his hits are extremely powerful.

Once you get thrown off the edge though, his recovery options are aweful.. He def needs better recovery. He should be able to UP B then SIDE B. UP B should go further and be completely invincible. I want Little Mac to be even better than he was in Sm4sh.

Walmart tweeted abour Crash and Geno? O.o Did I read that right?

Yeah, they posted their picks for the FP.

https://twitter.com/WalmartCAGaming/status/1222348097059201025

 

[helloiamhere]

Yeah, they posted their picks for the FP.

https://twitter.com/WalmartCAGaming/status/1222348097059201025

Honestly aside from Toxtricity thats a really good FP

 

[DaxMasterix]

Agreed. Ultimate has been spot on with the patches to a scary degree. Slight nerfs to top tiers, huge buffs to low and mid tiers. I've been really impressed because this has turned into a game where you can pick just about anyone and get good mileage with them. Tiers obviously still exist but nobody in Ultimate is genuinely bad or totally irrelevant competitively.

Little mac tier

 

[MattX20]

He's coming at some point. The patches are weird because they focus on like ten characters at a time. We have at least 6 major patches left so the odds are definitely in his favor to not be total ass eventually.

Let's hope Little Mac gets some genuine buffs before the game ends. More than any character right now, he needs one.

 

[Firox]

Yeah, they posted their picks for the FP.

https://twitter.com/WalmartCAGaming/status/1222348097059201025

Holy crap, that's awesome. Just drop Ring fit adventurer (seriously, who the feck?) and I'd take it.

Suck on THAT, Target!

 

[JarBear]

He's coming at some point. The patches are weird because they focus on like ten characters at a time. We have at least 6 major patches left so the odds are definitely in his favor to not be total ass eventually.

If the focus for Little Mac is to be strong on ground, weak in the air ... just improve his recovery. Maybe have his Side B doesn't cause the a special fall and increase his up B distance a bit. Poor Little Mac.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Today on Theorycrafting: What Kind of Announcement Will 6 Be? I feel like with Smash there's definitely pacing and characters are revealed at certain times deliberately and strategically. Smash announcements first honestly became a thing with Brawl so let's start there.

Brawl's 2006 announcement trailer had Metaknight, Pit, ZSS, Wario, and Snake? Why? Let's break it down:

https://smashboards.com/threads/i-think-this-might-be-interesting-to-look-at-melee-1999-poll.81891/

-Metaknight. Popular but not the most wanted. A good way to start.

-Pit. Most wanted retro character.

-ZSS. Sakurai said it himself: more female representation.

-Wario. Most wanted character for Melee after Bowser and Peach. A strong ending but we can go bigger.

-Snake. First third party character. An explosive reveal. If you didn't have people's attention before, you do now.

After this, I feel Nintendo basically implemented what I'll call "Starvation Theory." If enough time passes, people will welcome just about anyone with open arms. Ike breaks the year and almost two month drought of new characters. Then it was a string of pretty big picks. Pokemon Trainer then Diddy then a slight dip with Lucas and then SONIC, Dedede, and Olimar. This basically wraps up the reveal cycle of Brawl on arguably a high note.

Next comes Smash 4. Guiding principle: start strong but not too strong. Villager fits really well here. Follow up with Megaman, the most wanted third party character, and blow the hinges off the doors. People are so excited that they're seeing spots. This is likely why Wii Fit was shown here because she probably would have been a disaster anywhere else. "Starvation Theory" comes in again. Show off a character that's wanted but not super popular. Rosalina fits this well. Next comes Little Mac, one of the most wanted characters for Smash, followed by Greninja, easier to swallow now. Next comes E3 2014. Again, go big but not the biggest. Mii Fighters very highly demanded then Palutena was the most requested female character and very popular. Pac-Man is another bombshell. This makes Robin and then Shulk easier for the general public to be alright with.

Next comes Smash 4 DLC. Mewtwo kicks things off. Not a new character but someone heavily wanted. He's then followed by the next wanted veterans Lucas and Roy. This sets things up well for Ryu as the big E3 reveal. He's not the most wanted third party character but his reveal is a big deal. CLOUD is the big deal. Like Wii Fit, we're back to the sandwich method with Smash 4's final Direct. Starts off with hard reminders that Cloud's coming, arguably Smash 4's biggest reveal and then goes with Corrin, one of the least popular reveals ever, followed by an uptick with Bayonetta. Things end on a positive note because Cloud was big enough to carry Corrin and Bayo no matter how well they were received.

Next comes Ultimate. Once again, start strong but not too strong. Inkling does this really well. E3 2018 comes. Everyone is Here! Daisy! RIDLEY! Can this game get any better?! August Smash Direct, 'ope, here comes the Belmont Boys, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. ROOL! Things are built up pretty damn high so you have to be methodical about your next steps because, realistically, you can't keep going at this pace. As the saying goes, "let them down gently." Isabelle is a slight dip then a hard plunge with Ken, Incineroar, and, the first death of expectations, Plant. Not exactly a great place to be for the Fighter's Pass... Or is it?

My theory is that Nintendo may have done this deliberately. You all lived through it and you know morale was in the toilet after the 2018 November Direct. For Nintendo, this actually isn't a bad place to be. The bar is set pretty low so you don't even have to go with the most popular pick to cheer up the fanbase, just popular ENOUGH. This is why Joker was the perfect pick to kick off the Fighter's Pass. Not the most wanted character but totally unexpected and good enough to get people's expectations back up. Suddenly people care about the Fighter's Pass again and the money comes flowing like a tsunami.

"Starvation Theory" is kind of implemented after this and Hero is next at E3 2019. Some people are miffed but no more than 30 minutes it's BANJO AND KAZOOIE! Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen. Banjo's so big that his release makes Terry easy for the general public to process. He's not super known by a lot of people but, who cares, we just got Banjo. They kind of pulled a similar strategy to what they did with Wii Fit after Megaman. This was the best point in time for Terry to be received. Then comes Byleth... Self explanatory. Like Plant, morale and expectations are back to crawling on the floor but this is a great place to be for Nintendo.

So, now he have Season 2 on the horizon. Who is going to be 6? History has shown us that they save the biggest reveals for E3 but try to kick off reveal seasons strong but not too strong. This is why I don't think 6 is Crash or Geno. That's too strong of a start and you establish goofy high expectations. This is likely why Inkling came before Ridley, Joker before Banjo, Ryu before Cloud, etc. There's probably method to this madness.

"Hype" is a staircase in these situations, not a slingshot. Smash reveals rarely go 1 to 10, it's more gradual. For example, Joker was a 7 or 8 on average, Hero a 4 or 5, and Banjo a 10. Great, Okay, Legendary. Banjo's a tough act to follow but his shadow will likely help who is next. Terry was a step down but not as harsh as Byleth would have been. Byleth after Banjo probably would have been better but then Terry would have been a slight bump at best. Not a great look for a new third party to Smash. In a weird way, it's much more beneficial for a first party character to be poorly received than a third. A bad third party reveal could be damaging PR and business relations while a bad first party reveal can reasonably be shaken off. Byleth's a big boy/girl, they can take it, especially with all the awards Three Houses won anyways.

Now we come back to the present. What kind of character would be good for 6? Again, you don't want to throw out your aces just yet. You want a strong start but not too strong because this could screw with the flow of things. Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen so you can't go too hard and heavy right now. Following this model, this is why I mapped out my thoughts the way I did:

Waluigi - Geno - Lloyd- Dante - Crash - Master Chief

Waluigi is arguably the most middle of the road of these characters. Controversial but definitely popular but also not the most popular of these picks. Geno and Lloyd compliment each other fairly well and are fairly close to each other on the "hype" meter. Dante is arguably a bump up or down depending on who you ask. Crash is definitely a super star and Master Chief, like Dante, can go either way but definitely a high note. Either way, it ends DLC in a good place and they could announce some weird bonus character for #100 and everyone would probably be groovy with it. This all said, I think this is what Nintendo is ultimately going for: leave people satisfied, possibly wanting more in the future, but not starving and crazed for it because things ended too strongly or too poorly. Goldilocks; just right.

 

[Vector Victor]

Playable Geno gets in. Hoes Mad? Nope. Its Genos Glad.

 

[Spatulo]

Today on Theorycrafting: What Kind of Announcement Will 6 Be? I feel like with Smash there's definitely pacing and characters are revealed at certain times deliberately and strategically. Smash announcements first honestly became a thing with Brawl so let's start there.

Brawl's 2006 announcement trailer had Metaknight, Pit, ZSS, Wario, and Snake? Why? Let's break it down:

https://smashboards.com/threads/i-think-this-might-be-interesting-to-look-at-melee-1999-poll.81891/

-Metaknight. Popular but not the most wanted. A good way to start.

-Pit. Most wanted retro character.

-ZSS. Sakurai said it himself: more female representation.

-Wario. Most wanted character for Melee after Bowser and Peach. A strong ending but we can go bigger.

-Snake. First third party character. An explosive reveal. If you didn't have people's attention before, you do now.

After this, I feel Nintendo basically implemented what I'll call "Starvation Theory." If enough time passes, people will welcome just about anyone with open arms. Ike breaks the year and almost two month drought of new characters. Then it was a string of pretty big picks. Pokemon Trainer then Diddy then a slight dip with Lucas and then SONIC, Dedede, and Olimar. This basically wraps up the reveal cycle of Brawl on arguably a high note.

Next comes Smash 4. Guiding principle: start strong but not too strong. Villager fits really well here. Follow up with Megaman, the most wanted third party character, and blow the hinges off the doors. People are so excited that they're seeing spots. This is likely why Wii Fit was shown here because she probably would have been a disaster anywhere else. "Starvation Theory" comes in again. Show off a character that's wanted but not super popular. Rosalina fits this well. Next comes Little Mac, one of the most wanted characters for Smash, followed by Greninja, easier to swallow now. Next comes E3 2014. Again, go big but not the biggest. Mii Fighters very highly demanded then Palutena was the most requested female character and very popular. Pac-Man is another bombshell. This makes Robin and then Shulk easier for the general public to be alright with.

Next comes Smash 4 DLC. Mewtwo kicks things off. Not a new character but someone heavily wanted. He's then followed by the next wanted veterans Lucas and Roy. This sets things up well for Ryu as the big E3 reveal. He's not the most wanted third party character but his reveal is a big deal. CLOUD is the big deal. Like Wii Fit, we're back to the sandwich method with Smash 4's final Direct. Starts off with hard reminders that Cloud's coming, arguably Smash 4's biggest reveal and then goes with Corrin, one of the least popular reveals ever, followed by an uptick with Bayonetta. Things end on a positive note because Cloud was big enough to carry Corrin and Bayo no matter how well they were received.

Next comes Ultimate. Once again, start strong but not too strong. Inkling does this really well. E3 2018 comes. Everyone is Here! Daisy! RIDLEY! Can this game get any better?! August Smash Direct, 'ope, here comes the Belmont Boys, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. ROOL! Things are built up pretty damn high so you have to be methodical about your next steps because, realistically, you can't keep going at this pace. As the saying goes, "let them down gently." Isabelle is a slight dip then a hard plunge with Ken, Incineroar, and, the first death of expectations, Plant. Not exactly a great place to be for the Fighter's Pass... Or is it?

My theory is that Nintendo may have done this deliberately. You all lived through it and you know morale was in the toilet after the 2018 November Direct. For Nintendo, this actually isn't a bad place to be. The bar is set pretty low so you don't even have to go with the most popular pick to cheer up the fanbase, just popular ENOUGH. This is why Joker was the perfect pick to kick off the Fighter's Pass. Not the most wanted character but totally unexpected and good enough to get people's expectations back up. Suddenly people care about the Fighter's Pass again and the money comes flowing like a tsunami.

"Starvation Theory" is kind of implemented after this and Hero is next at E3 2019. Some people are miffed but no more than 30 minutes it's BANJO AND KAZOOIE! Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen. Banjo's so big that his release makes Terry easy for the general public to process. He's not super known by a lot of people but, who cares, we just got Banjo. They kind of pulled a similar strategy to what they did with Wii Fit after Megaman. This was the best point in time for Terry to be received. Then comes Byleth... Self explanatory. Like Plant, morale and expectations are back to crawling on the floor but this is a great place to be for Nintendo.

So, now he have Season 2 on the horizon. Who is going to be 6? History has shown us that they save the biggest reveals for E3 but try to kick off reveal seasons strong but not too strong. This is why I don't think 6 is Crash or Geno. That's too strong of a start and you establish goofy high expectations. This is likely why Inkling came before Ridley, Joker before Banjo, Ryu before Cloud, etc. There's probably method to this madness.

"Hype" is a staircase in these situations, not a slingshot. Smash reveals rarely go 1 to 10, it's more gradual. For example, Joker was a 7 or 8 on average, Hero a 4 or 5, and Banjo a 10. Great, Okay, Legendary. Banjo's a tough act to follow but his shadow will likely help who is next. Terry was a step down but not as harsh as Byleth would have been. Byleth after Banjo probably would have been better but then Terry would have been a slight bump at best. Not a great look for a new third party to Smash. In a weird way, it's much more beneficial for a first party character to be poorly received than a third. A bad third party reveal could be damaging PR and business relations while a bad first party reveal can reasonably be shaken off. Byleth's a big boy/girl, they can take it, especially with all the awards Three Houses won anyways.

Now we come back to the present. What kind of character would be good for 6? Again, you don't want to throw out your aces just yet. You want a strong start but not too strong because this could screw with the flow of things. Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen so you can't go too hard and heavy right now. Following this model, this is why I mapped out my thoughts the way I did:

Waluigi - Geno - Lloyd- Dante - Crash - Master Chief

Waluigi is arguably the most middle of the road of these characters. Controversial but definitely popular but also not the most popular of these picks. Geno and Lloyd compliment each other fairly well and are fairly close to each other on the "hype" meter. Dante is arguably a bump up or down depending on who you ask. Crash is definitely a super star and Master Chief, like Dante, can go either way but definitely a high note. Either way, it ends DLC in a good place and they could announce some weird bonus character for #100 and everyone would probably be groovy with it. This all said, I think this is what Nintendo is ultimately going for: leave people satisfied, possibly wanting more in the future, but not starving and crazed for it because things ended too strongly or too poorly. Goldilocks; just right.

God, “Starvation theory” is a good name for it. The time between Snake and Ike, when I was younger and had a much slower perception of time, was agonizing

 

[pinshadow]

Today on Theorycrafting: What Kind of Announcement Will 6 Be? I feel like with Smash there's definitely pacing and characters are revealed at certain times deliberately and strategically. Smash announcements first honestly became a thing with Brawl so let's start there.

Brawl's 2006 announcement trailer had Metaknight, Pit, ZSS, Wario, and Snake? Why? Let's break it down:

https://smashboards.com/threads/i-think-this-might-be-interesting-to-look-at-melee-1999-poll.81891/

-Metaknight. Popular but not the most wanted. A good way to start.

-Pit. Most wanted retro character.

-ZSS. Sakurai said it himself: more female representation.

-Wario. Most wanted character for Melee after Bowser and Peach. A strong ending but we can go bigger.

-Snake. First third party character. An explosive reveal. If you didn't have people's attention before, you do now.

After this, I feel Nintendo basically implemented what I'll call "Starvation Theory." If enough time passes, people will welcome just about anyone with open arms. Ike breaks the year and almost two month drought of new characters. Then it was a string of pretty big picks. Pokemon Trainer then Diddy then a slight dip with Lucas and then SONIC, Dedede, and Olimar. This basically wraps up the reveal cycle of Brawl on arguably a high note.

Next comes Smash 4. Guiding principle: start strong but not too strong. Villager fits really well here. Follow up with Megaman, the most wanted third party character, and blow the hinges off the doors. People are so excited that they're seeing spots. This is likely why Wii Fit was shown here because she probably would have been a disaster anywhere else. "Starvation Theory" comes in again. Show off a character that's wanted but not super popular. Rosalina fits this well. Next comes Little Mac, one of the most wanted characters for Smash, followed by Greninja, easier to swallow now. Next comes E3 2014. Again, go big but not the biggest. Mii Fighters very highly demanded then Palutena was the most requested female character and very popular. Pac-Man is another bombshell. This makes Robin and then Shulk easier for the general public to be alright with.

Next comes Smash 4 DLC. Mewtwo kicks things off. Not a new character but someone heavily wanted. He's then followed by the next wanted veterans Lucas and Roy. This sets things up well for Ryu as the big E3 reveal. He's not the most wanted third party character but his reveal is a big deal. CLOUD is the big deal. Like Wii Fit, we're back to the sandwich method with Smash 4's final Direct. Starts off with hard reminders that Cloud's coming, arguably Smash 4's biggest reveal and then goes with Corrin, one of the least popular reveals ever, followed by an uptick with Bayonetta. Things end on a positive note because Cloud was big enough to carry Corrin and Bayo no matter how well they were received.

Next comes Ultimate. Once again, start strong but not too strong. Inkling does this really well. E3 2018 comes. Everyone is Here! Daisy! RIDLEY! Can this game get any better?! August Smash Direct, 'ope, here comes the Belmont Boys, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. ROOL! Things are built up pretty damn high so you have to be methodical about your next steps because, realistically, you can't keep going at this pace. As the saying goes, "let them down gently." Isabelle is a slight dip then a hard plunge with Ken, Incineroar, and, the first death of expectations, Plant. Not exactly a great place to be for the Fighter's Pass... Or is it?

My theory is that Nintendo may have done this deliberately. You all lived through it and you know morale was in the toilet after the 2018 November Direct. For Nintendo, this actually isn't a bad place to be. The bar is set pretty low so you don't even have to go with the most popular pick to cheer up the fanbase, just popular ENOUGH. This is why Joker was the perfect pick to kick off the Fighter's Pass. Not the most wanted character but totally unexpected and good enough to get people's expectations back up. Suddenly people care about the Fighter's Pass again and the money comes flowing like a tsunami.

"Starvation Theory" is kind of implemented after this and Hero is next at E3 2019. Some people are miffed but no more than 30 minutes it's BANJO AND KAZOOIE! Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen. Banjo's so big that his release makes Terry easy for the general public to process. He's not super known by a lot of people but, who cares, we just got Banjo. They kind of pulled a similar strategy to what they did with Wii Fit after Megaman. This was the best point in time for Terry to be received. Then comes Byleth... Self explanatory. Like Plant, morale and expectations are back to crawling on the floor but this is a great place to be for Nintendo.

So, now he have Season 2 on the horizon. Who is going to be 6? History has shown us that they save the biggest reveals for E3 but try to kick off reveal seasons strong but not too strong. This is why I don't think 6 is Crash or Geno. That's too strong of a start and you establish goofy high expectations. This is likely why Inkling came before Ridley, Joker before Banjo, Ryu before Cloud, etc. There's probably method to this madness.

"Hype" is a staircase in these situations, not a slingshot. Smash reveals rarely go 1 to 10, it's more gradual. For example, Joker was a 7 or 8 on average, Hero a 4 or 5, and Banjo a 10. Great, Okay, Legendary. Banjo's a tough act to follow but his shadow will likely help who is next. Terry was a step down but not as harsh as Byleth would have been. Byleth after Banjo probably would have been better but then Terry would have been a slight bump at best. Not a great look for a new third party to Smash. In a weird way, it's much more beneficial for a first party character to be poorly received than a third. A bad third party reveal could be damaging PR and business relations while a bad first party reveal can reasonably be shaken off. Byleth's a big boy/girl, they can take it, especially with all the awards Three Houses won anyways.

Now we come back to the present. What kind of character would be good for 6? Again, you don't want to throw out your aces just yet. You want a strong start but not too strong because this could screw with the flow of things. Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen so you can't go too hard and heavy right now. Following this model, this is why I mapped out my thoughts the way I did:

Waluigi - Geno - Lloyd- Dante - Crash - Master Chief

Waluigi is arguably the most middle of the road of these characters. Controversial but definitely popular but also not the most popular of these picks. Geno and Lloyd compliment each other fairly well and are fairly close to each other on the "hype" meter. Dante is arguably a bump up or down depending on who you ask. Crash is definitely a super star and Master Chief, like Dante, can go either way but definitely a high note. Either way, it ends DLC in a good place and they could announce some weird bonus character for #100 and everyone would probably be groovy with it. This all said, I think this is what Nintendo is ultimately going for: leave people satisfied, possibly wanting more in the future, but not starving and crazed for it because things ended too strongly or too poorly. Goldilocks; just right.

I still don't understand why you are so confident in Waluigi when even your sources have less faith in him than any of the other characters you listed. You argue that he isn't leakbait but he's the perfect character for it. Besides, if pretty much no one knew about Byleth until the day before they were revealed, why the hell would Waluigi be floating around for over a year?

 

[Fatmanonice]

As a continuation of my last post, I've noticed that the first reveals of "Seasons" are surprises or fakeouts and its been this way since Brawl:

Brawl- At E3 2006, they had a bunch of people come into a room and nobody was told what they would be shown.

Smash 4- Posed as an Animal Crossing trailer. Later in the show, Wii Fit was posed as a new Wii Fit game.

Smash 4 DLC- Randomly announced in the 50 Fact Extravaganza in October 2014. "Time for a special announcement!" *suddenly Mewtwo*

Smash Ultimate- Posed as a Splatoon trailer.

Joker- Posed as a surprise Persona 5 announcement.

This is why I think 6 is likely going to be a bamboozle too. We probably won't know it's even a Smash trailer until it's too late.

 

[MattX20]

Today on Theorycrafting: What Kind of Announcement Will 6 Be? I feel like with Smash there's definitely pacing and characters are revealed at certain times deliberately and strategically. Smash announcements first honestly became a thing with Brawl so let's start there.

Brawl's 2006 announcement trailer had Metaknight, Pit, ZSS, Wario, and Snake? Why? Let's break it down:

https://smashboards.com/threads/i-think-this-might-be-interesting-to-look-at-melee-1999-poll.81891/

-Metaknight. Popular but not the most wanted. A good way to start.

-Pit. Most wanted retro character.

-ZSS. Sakurai said it himself: more female representation.

-Wario. Most wanted character for Melee after Bowser and Peach. A strong ending but we can go bigger.

-Snake. First third party character. An explosive reveal. If you didn't have people's attention before, you do now.

After this, I feel Nintendo basically implemented what I'll call "Starvation Theory." If enough time passes, people will welcome just about anyone with open arms. Ike breaks the year and almost two month drought of new characters. Then it was a string of pretty big picks. Pokemon Trainer then Diddy then a slight dip with Lucas and then SONIC, Dedede, and Olimar. This basically wraps up the reveal cycle of Brawl on arguably a high note.

Next comes Smash 4. Guiding principle: start strong but not too strong. Villager fits really well here. Follow up with Megaman, the most wanted third party character, and blow the hinges off the doors. People are so excited that they're seeing spots. This is likely why Wii Fit was shown here because she probably would have been a disaster anywhere else. "Starvation Theory" comes in again. Show off a character that's wanted but not super popular. Rosalina fits this well. Next comes Little Mac, one of the most wanted characters for Smash, followed by Greninja, easier to swallow now. Next comes E3 2014. Again, go big but not the biggest. Mii Fighters very highly demanded then Palutena was the most requested female character and very popular. Pac-Man is another bombshell. This makes Robin and then Shulk easier for the general public to be alright with.

Next comes Smash 4 DLC. Mewtwo kicks things off. Not a new character but someone heavily wanted. He's then followed by the next wanted veterans Lucas and Roy. This sets things up well for Ryu as the big E3 reveal. He's not the most wanted third party character but his reveal is a big deal. CLOUD is the big deal. Like Wii Fit, we're back to the sandwich method with Smash 4's final Direct. Starts off with hard reminders that Cloud's coming, arguably Smash 4's biggest reveal and then goes with Corrin, one of the least popular reveals ever, followed by an uptick with Bayonetta. Things end on a positive note because Cloud was big enough to carry Corrin and Bayo no matter how well they were received.

Next comes Ultimate. Once again, start strong but not too strong. Inkling does this really well. E3 2018 comes. Everyone is Here! Daisy! RIDLEY! Can this game get any better?! August Smash Direct, 'ope, here comes the Belmont Boys, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. ROOL! Things are built up pretty damn high so you have to be methodical about your next steps because, realistically, you can't keep going at this pace. As the saying goes, "let them down gently." Isabelle is a slight dip then a hard plunge with Ken, Incineroar, and, the first death of expectations, Plant. Not exactly a great place to be for the Fighter's Pass... Or is it?

My theory is that Nintendo may have done this deliberately. You all lived through it and you know morale was in the toilet after the 2018 November Direct. For Nintendo, this actually isn't a bad place to be. The bar is set pretty low so you don't even have to go with the most popular pick to cheer up the fanbase, just popular ENOUGH. This is why Joker was the perfect pick to kick off the Fighter's Pass. Not the most wanted character but totally unexpected and good enough to get people's expectations back up. Suddenly people care about the Fighter's Pass again and the money comes flowing like a tsunami.

"Starvation Theory" is kind of implemented after this and Hero is next at E3 2019. Some people are miffed but no more than 30 minutes it's BANJO AND KAZOOIE! Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen. Banjo's so big that his release makes Terry easy for the general public to process. He's not super known by a lot of people but, who cares, we just got Banjo. They kind of pulled a similar strategy to what they did with Wii Fit after Megaman. This was the best point in time for Terry to be received. Then comes Byleth... Self explanatory. Like Plant, morale and expectations are back to crawling on the floor but this is a great place to be for Nintendo.

So, now he have Season 2 on the horizon. Who is going to be 6? History has shown us that they save the biggest reveals for E3 but try to kick off reveal seasons strong but not too strong. This is why I don't think 6 is Crash or Geno. That's too strong of a start and you establish goofy high expectations. This is likely why Inkling came before Ridley, Joker before Banjo, Ryu before Cloud, etc. There's probably method to this madness.

"Hype" is a staircase in these situations, not a slingshot. Smash reveals rarely go 1 to 10, it's more gradual. For example, Joker was a 7 or 8 on average, Hero a 4 or 5, and Banjo a 10. Great, Okay, Legendary. Banjo's a tough act to follow but his shadow will likely help who is next. Terry was a step down but not as harsh as Byleth would have been. Byleth after Banjo probably would have been better but then Terry would have been a slight bump at best. Not a great look for a new third party to Smash. In a weird way, it's much more beneficial for a first party character to be poorly received than a third. A bad third party reveal could be damaging PR and business relations while a bad first party reveal can reasonably be shaken off. Byleth's a big boy/girl, they can take it, especially with all the awards Three Houses won anyways.

Now we come back to the present. What kind of character would be good for 6? Again, you don't want to throw out your aces just yet. You want a strong start but not too strong because this could screw with the flow of things. Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen so you can't go too hard and heavy right now. Following this model, this is why I mapped out my thoughts the way I did:

Waluigi - Geno - Lloyd- Dante - Crash - Master Chief

Waluigi is arguably the most middle of the road of these characters. Controversial but definitely popular but also not the most popular of these picks. Geno and Lloyd compliment each other fairly well and are fairly close to each other on the "hype" meter. Dante is arguably a bump up or down depending on who you ask. Crash is definitely a super star and Master Chief, like Dante, can go either way but definitely a high note. Either way, it ends DLC in a good place and they could announce some weird bonus character for #100 and everyone would probably be groovy with it. This all said, I think this is what Nintendo is ultimately going for: leave people satisfied, possibly wanting more in the future, but not starving and crazed for it because things ended too strongly or too poorly. Goldilocks; just right.

I can agree with most of your points, but my thought is that given how disastrously Byleth was received, I feel like that Nintendo would want there to be a buffer/heavy hitter right of the gate like Joker was for the first one. I don't think it would make sense to wait 5 months for just one character to start off the new wave of DLC. If anything, I imagine they would want someone to give people incentive to purchase the pass instead of being all blind.

 

[MonkeyDLenny]

Today on Theorycrafting: What Kind of Announcement Will 6 Be? I feel like with Smash there's definitely pacing and characters are revealed at certain times deliberately and strategically. Smash announcements first honestly became a thing with Brawl so let's start there.

Brawl's 2006 announcement trailer had Metaknight, Pit, ZSS, Wario, and Snake? Why? Let's break it down:

https://smashboards.com/threads/i-think-this-might-be-interesting-to-look-at-melee-1999-poll.81891/

-Metaknight. Popular but not the most wanted. A good way to start.

-Pit. Most wanted retro character.

-ZSS. Sakurai said it himself: more female representation.

-Wario. Most wanted character for Melee after Bowser and Peach. A strong ending but we can go bigger.

-Snake. First third party character. An explosive reveal. If you didn't have people's attention before, you do now.

After this, I feel Nintendo basically implemented what I'll call "Starvation Theory." If enough time passes, people will welcome just about anyone with open arms. Ike breaks the year and almost two month drought of new characters. Then it was a string of pretty big picks. Pokemon Trainer then Diddy then a slight dip with Lucas and then SONIC, Dedede, and Olimar. This basically wraps up the reveal cycle of Brawl on arguably a high note.

Next comes Smash 4. Guiding principle: start strong but not too strong. Villager fits really well here. Follow up with Megaman, the most wanted third party character, and blow the hinges off the doors. People are so excited that they're seeing spots. This is likely why Wii Fit was shown here because she probably would have been a disaster anywhere else. "Starvation Theory" comes in again. Show off a character that's wanted but not super popular. Rosalina fits this well. Next comes Little Mac, one of the most wanted characters for Smash, followed by Greninja, easier to swallow now. Next comes E3 2014. Again, go big but not the biggest. Mii Fighters very highly demanded then Palutena was the most requested female character and very popular. Pac-Man is another bombshell. This makes Robin and then Shulk easier for the general public to be alright with.

Next comes Smash 4 DLC. Mewtwo kicks things off. Not a new character but someone heavily wanted. He's then followed by the next wanted veterans Lucas and Roy. This sets things up well for Ryu as the big E3 reveal. He's not the most wanted third party character but his reveal is a big deal. CLOUD is the big deal. Like Wii Fit, we're back to the sandwich method with Smash 4's final Direct. Starts off with hard reminders that Cloud's coming, arguably Smash 4's biggest reveal and then goes with Corrin, one of the least popular reveals ever, followed by an uptick with Bayonetta. Things end on a positive note because Cloud was big enough to carry Corrin and Bayo no matter how well they were received.

Next comes Ultimate. Once again, start strong but not too strong. Inkling does this really well. E3 2018 comes. Everyone is Here! Daisy! RIDLEY! Can this game get any better?! August Smash Direct, 'ope, here comes the Belmont Boys, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. ROOL! Things are built up pretty damn high so you have to be methodical about your next steps because, realistically, you can't keep going at this pace. As the saying goes, "let them down gently." Isabelle is a slight dip then a hard plunge with Ken, Incineroar, and, the first death of expectations, Plant. Not exactly a great place to be for the Fighter's Pass... Or is it?

My theory is that Nintendo may have done this deliberately. You all lived through it and you know morale was in the toilet after the 2018 November Direct. For Nintendo, this actually isn't a bad place to be. The bar is set pretty low so you don't even have to go with the most popular pick to cheer up the fanbase, just popular ENOUGH. This is why Joker was the perfect pick to kick off the Fighter's Pass. Not the most wanted character but totally unexpected and good enough to get people's expectations back up. Suddenly people care about the Fighter's Pass again and the money comes flowing like a tsunami.

"Starvation Theory" is kind of implemented after this and Hero is next at E3 2019. Some people are miffed but no more than 30 minutes it's BANJO AND KAZOOIE! Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen. Banjo's so big that his release makes Terry easy for the general public to process. He's not super known by a lot of people but, who cares, we just got Banjo. They kind of pulled a similar strategy to what they did with Wii Fit after Megaman. This was the best point in time for Terry to be received. Then comes Byleth... Self explanatory. Like Plant, morale and expectations are back to crawling on the floor but this is a great place to be for Nintendo.

So, now he have Season 2 on the horizon. Who is going to be 6? History has shown us that they save the biggest reveals for E3 but try to kick off reveal seasons strong but not too strong. This is why I don't think 6 is Crash or Geno. That's too strong of a start and you establish goofy high expectations. This is likely why Inkling came before Ridley, Joker before Banjo, Ryu before Cloud, etc. There's probably method to this madness.

"Hype" is a staircase in these situations, not a slingshot. Smash reveals rarely go 1 to 10, it's more gradual. For example, Joker was a 7 or 8 on average, Hero a 4 or 5, and Banjo a 10. Great, Okay, Legendary. Banjo's a tough act to follow but his shadow will likely help who is next. Terry was a step down but not as harsh as Byleth would have been. Byleth after Banjo probably would have been better but then Terry would have been a slight bump at best. Not a great look for a new third party to Smash. In a weird way, it's much more beneficial for a first party character to be poorly received than a third. A bad third party reveal could be damaging PR and business relations while a bad first party reveal can reasonably be shaken off. Byleth's a big boy/girl, they can take it, especially with all the awards Three Houses won anyways.

Now we come back to the present. What kind of character would be good for 6? Again, you don't want to throw out your aces just yet. You want a strong start but not too strong because this could screw with the flow of things. Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen so you can't go too hard and heavy right now. Following this model, this is why I mapped out my thoughts the way I did:

Waluigi - Geno - Lloyd- Dante - Crash - Master Chief

Waluigi is arguably the most middle of the road of these characters. Controversial but definitely popular but also not the most popular of these picks. Geno and Lloyd compliment each other fairly well and are fairly close to each other on the "hype" meter. Dante is arguably a bump up or down depending on who you ask. Crash is definitely a super star and Master Chief, like Dante, can go either way but definitely a high note. Either way, it ends DLC in a good place and they could announce some weird bonus character for #100 and everyone would probably be groovy with it. This all said, I think this is what Nintendo is ultimately going for: leave people satisfied, possibly wanting more in the future, but not starving and crazed for it because things ended too strongly or too poorly. Goldilocks; just right.

Starvation strategy really IS a good name for this

I've mentioned it before: But my belief is that Number 6 is going to actually be a big one for two reasons

1. They frontloaded the first pass with Joker, the most left-field "Wait how is that even possible!?" pick you could imagine. People were on the fence for the pass, but Joker was such an out there reveal it sold everyone on it. Nintendo will most likely try to pull something like this again

2. Byleth. Sakurai literally warned us ahead of time in the reveal itself to not be upset, that knowing smile when he put up the poster, "Too many swordsmen are there?", they know... they KNOW the Smash fandom hates Fire Emblem and the reveal would piss off a good portion of the fanbase; and now that we got burned by Byleth people are once again on the fence about purchasing Fighter Pass 2. Which goes right back to the first point, frontloading with an insane pick. Now they have to also work on winning back the fandom after putting in what they knew would be an unpopular choice.

So with those points in mind, I think there is a real possibility Geno could be Number 6 (Even though 7 would be thematically better)

 

[Firox]

Today on Theorycrafting: What Kind of Announcement Will 6 Be? I feel like with Smash there's definitely pacing and characters are revealed at certain times deliberately and strategically. Smash announcements first honestly became a thing with Brawl so let's start there.

Brawl's 2006 announcement trailer had Metaknight, Pit, ZSS, Wario, and Snake? Why? Let's break it down:

https://smashboards.com/threads/i-think-this-might-be-interesting-to-look-at-melee-1999-poll.81891/

-Metaknight. Popular but not the most wanted. A good way to start.

-Pit. Most wanted retro character.

-ZSS. Sakurai said it himself: more female representation.

-Wario. Most wanted character for Melee after Bowser and Peach. A strong ending but we can go bigger.

-Snake. First third party character. An explosive reveal. If you didn't have people's attention before, you do now.

After this, I feel Nintendo basically implemented what I'll call "Starvation Theory." If enough time passes, people will welcome just about anyone with open arms. Ike breaks the year and almost two month drought of new characters. Then it was a string of pretty big picks. Pokemon Trainer then Diddy then a slight dip with Lucas and then SONIC, Dedede, and Olimar. This basically wraps up the reveal cycle of Brawl on arguably a high note.

Next comes Smash 4. Guiding principle: start strong but not too strong. Villager fits really well here. Follow up with Megaman, the most wanted third party character, and blow the hinges off the doors. People are so excited that they're seeing spots. This is likely why Wii Fit was shown here because she probably would have been a disaster anywhere else. "Starvation Theory" comes in again. Show off a character that's wanted but not super popular. Rosalina fits this well. Next comes Little Mac, one of the most wanted characters for Smash, followed by Greninja, easier to swallow now. Next comes E3 2014. Again, go big but not the biggest. Mii Fighters very highly demanded then Palutena was the most requested female character and very popular. Pac-Man is another bombshell. This makes Robin and then Shulk easier for the general public to be alright with.

Next comes Smash 4 DLC. Mewtwo kicks things off. Not a new character but someone heavily wanted. He's then followed by the next wanted veterans Lucas and Roy. This sets things up well for Ryu as the big E3 reveal. He's not the most wanted third party character but his reveal is a big deal. CLOUD is the big deal. Like Wii Fit, we're back to the sandwich method with Smash 4's final Direct. Starts off with hard reminders that Cloud's coming, arguably Smash 4's biggest reveal and then goes with Corrin, one of the least popular reveals ever, followed by an uptick with Bayonetta. Things end on a positive note because Cloud was big enough to carry Corrin and Bayo no matter how well they were received.

Next comes Ultimate. Once again, start strong but not too strong. Inkling does this really well. E3 2018 comes. Everyone is Here! Daisy! RIDLEY! Can this game get any better?! August Smash Direct, 'ope, here comes the Belmont Boys, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. ROOL! Things are built up pretty damn high so you have to be methodical about your next steps because, realistically, you can't keep going at this pace. As the saying goes, "let them down gently." Isabelle is a slight dip then a hard plunge with Ken, Incineroar, and, the first death of expectations, Plant. Not exactly a great place to be for the Fighter's Pass... Or is it?

My theory is that Nintendo may have done this deliberately. You all lived through it and you know morale was in the toilet after the 2018 November Direct. For Nintendo, this actually isn't a bad place to be. The bar is set pretty low so you don't even have to go with the most popular pick to cheer up the fanbase, just popular ENOUGH. This is why Joker was the perfect pick to kick off the Fighter's Pass. Not the most wanted character but totally unexpected and good enough to get people's expectations back up. Suddenly people care about the Fighter's Pass again and the money comes flowing like a tsunami.

"Starvation Theory" is kind of implemented after this and Hero is next at E3 2019. Some people are miffed but no more than 30 minutes it's BANJO AND KAZOOIE! Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen. Banjo's so big that his release makes Terry easy for the general public to process. He's not super known by a lot of people but, who cares, we just got Banjo. They kind of pulled a similar strategy to what they did with Wii Fit after Megaman. This was the best point in time for Terry to be received. Then comes Byleth... Self explanatory. Like Plant, morale and expectations are back to crawling on the floor but this is a great place to be for Nintendo.

So, now he have Season 2 on the horizon. Who is going to be 6? History has shown us that they save the biggest reveals for E3 but try to kick off reveal seasons strong but not too strong. This is why I don't think 6 is Crash or Geno. That's too strong of a start and you establish goofy high expectations. This is likely why Inkling came before Ridley, Joker before Banjo, Ryu before Cloud, etc. There's probably method to this madness.

"Hype" is a staircase in these situations, not a slingshot. Smash reveals rarely go 1 to 10, it's more gradual. For example, Joker was a 7 or 8 on average, Hero a 4 or 5, and Banjo a 10. Great, Okay, Legendary. Banjo's a tough act to follow but his shadow will likely help who is next. Terry was a step down but not as harsh as Byleth would have been. Byleth after Banjo probably would have been better but then Terry would have been a slight bump at best. Not a great look for a new third party to Smash. In a weird way, it's much more beneficial for a first party character to be poorly received than a third. A bad third party reveal could be damaging PR and business relations while a bad first party reveal can reasonably be shaken off. Byleth's a big boy/girl, they can take it, especially with all the awards Three Houses won anyways.

Now we come back to the present. What kind of character would be good for 6? Again, you don't want to throw out your aces just yet. You want a strong start but not too strong because this could screw with the flow of things. Again, E3 is where the homeruns happen so you can't go too hard and heavy right now. Following this model, this is why I mapped out my thoughts the way I did:

Waluigi - Geno - Lloyd- Dante - Crash - Master Chief

Waluigi is arguably the most middle of the road of these characters. Controversial but definitely popular but also not the most popular of these picks. Geno and Lloyd compliment each other fairly well and are fairly close to each other on the "hype" meter. Dante is arguably a bump up or down depending on who you ask. Crash is definitely a super star and Master Chief, like Dante, can go either way but definitely a high note. Either way, it ends DLC in a good place and they could announce some weird bonus character for #100 and everyone would probably be groovy with it. This all said, I think this is what Nintendo is ultimately going for: leave people satisfied, possibly wanting more in the future, but not starving and crazed for it because things ended too strongly or too poorly. Goldilocks; just right.

Interesting break down. Good stuff, and a lot to unpack. As for my own personal thoughts, I feel fighter #6 is going to have to be something relatively big. Like a 7-9/10 minimum because let's be honest here, #6 is going to make or break a lot of bundle sales. That said, I don't think Waluigi fits that bill, especially after Byleth. Granted, I know how much the inner smash base has been fighting for him, however, I feel starting off the next pass with a third-string 1st party character isn't going to knock the socks off of the gaming world as a whole. Let's consider the other implications of such a pick:

A) A 1st party character would create the impression that we'll be getting few if any more 3rd party characters. This might be the case but the general public seems to hype the most over third parties and Nintendo likely feels they can reach untapped fan bases that way.

B) Visual appeal. Sorry, but Waluigi is just not easy on the eyes. He's cartoony, fun, campy, and maybe just a little creepy, but "cool" is likely not the first word people will think of to describe him.

C) On the upside, his inclusion would smash (hehehe) the most damning fan rule in existence: That AT status is a death sentence. Putting him in the game would skyrocket the chances for Isaac, Bomberman, etc. of getting in, however, it would also reinforce point A above.

I personally feel someone like Crash or Dante would be perfect for fighter #6 because it would instill more confidence in the general public that more "doozy" characters are on the way. I understand if people disagree, but that's just my 2 cents.