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Sorry in advance for a long one™
Maybe it's unfair, but because he isn't some random on 4chan, I don't think
T2by4
has any reason to BS us, so I've done a 180 on my opinion of Brew; he's gone from attention seeking troll to lucky guesser. If Ryu Hayabusa actually shows up, he's gonna get elevated to "knows someone who actually leaked information".
If Geno was used as leakbait, it was as leakbait for the first Fighters Pass.
Why show that there were more fighters after Terry, if they knew there were more from the get go? Because that's good television. We were advertised 5 fighters. That's two less than Smash 4, in a game that was already packed with every character we already had, and 1 more than Smash 4 if you consider newcomers only. 5 is a convincing number to assume "that's all we're getting". Then, here we are, at the doorstep of the final character. People's hopes and dreams are on the line, everyone acts like they've never heard "AH YU OKE?", tons of people are disappointed at "Ken in a Hat" - boom.
more fighters.
Take a look at the reaction videos. Imagine how much less hype there would be in general had they said last November "ok 10 fighters on the way" and number 4 is Terry friggin' Bogard. People would shrug, move along, and wait for the next one. Since this is a fighting game, the analogy fits very well to say that we're the audience at a wrestling match. It's all story driven, but we only barely know that while we're watching - the action is real enough. Of course Sakurai's gonna say something to go along with the narrative of "here's more fighters for you", when he knows that we know that he's a workaholic. There's no way Nintendo doesn't capitalize on the fact that tons of people are legitimately worried for the man's health and want him to take a break from something that he very obviously loves doing, so he says things like "man, will I ever get a break?" or "the goalpost is moving further away". A huge chunk of the audience eats that up and some shed legitimate tears for the hell he's putting himself through. Again, it's good television. The showmanship is incredible.
I could be wrong about this, maybe Nintendo really did just come up to Sakurai right after Banjo and say "alright buddy more DLC time" and he's legitimately heartbroken that he can't take a break from this. Maybe under that desk there's a ball and chain on his leg and he's just faking that smile and good humor, but I think the aim was to not let the hype die down for as long as they plan to support the game in a big way. Just keep the updates and the characters rolling out to keep the fans happy and the late adopters able to come in to something still growing and changing. Someone mentioned a while back about how long Sakurai claims it takes to develop a character - approximately a year from the ground up, including securing the rights, and they said that would mean we wouldn't see a second wave character until September next year, which doesn't seem like Nintendo's plan here, where we're getting a new character every 3 months, give or take the average. I can't see them having that much dead zone from their latest expected date of February 2020.
You're right - I'm not convinced that this means anything outside of the fact that Brew has a confirmed history of guessing things that aren't Piranha Plant, but nailing the amount of DLC characters we're expecting at this point that early on is pretty big. I don't remember anyone else posting a solid number of DLC characters, especially not after they announced there would be 5, and before there was any data to mine.
Maybe it's unfair, but because he isn't some random on 4chan, I don't think
T2by4
has any reason to BS us, so I've done a 180 on my opinion of Brew; he's gone from attention seeking troll to lucky guesser. If Ryu Hayabusa actually shows up, he's gonna get elevated to "knows someone who actually leaked information".Bear with me, as I might be overthinking how leakbait works, if such a concept exists. It's been mentioned plenty here, myself included, that using one of the most popular characters to add to a fake leak, one of the most contentious characters still not in the game, to catch a leaker is full throttle ignorant. The concept would be that either the leaker or their liaison posts "my source tells me x, y and z" where x and y is true but z is essentially a land mine that uniquely identifies the leaker... but if you're leaking something and you know your job is on the line, there's no way you don't know that maybe you're getting baited. At that point, would any leaker not include fake information to further throw off the company? Like I said, the guy who guessed Terry and Ryu but got the Terry trailer all wrong - who got fired because of that? If he's just some random that won the lottery, someone losing their job over it is unfair. Using that as an example, leakbait is barely useful, because your leaker can pad their correct information with total garbage and make it look like they were taking a stab in the dark. The only way to make the bait truly effective is to make it extremely unique, and Geno is just not unique.
If Geno was used as leakbait, it was as leakbait for the first Fighters Pass.
I think the Sakurai in a given direct is taken a little too literally. He does and says funny things for the people watching, and really, is more of a character than he is "game director Sakurai". I guess it's easy to think of a Nintendo direct as like a news report, a way for us to get updates about a game we already own, or things we're looking forward to, but they're advertisements. The wording is deliberately chosen, everything runs on a script. People call Sakurai's presentation a "livestream" sometimes, but Nintendo was open with the fact that the recording happened months ago, and there are obvious cuts as they loaded up various builds of the game to eliminate randomness and show exactly what they wanted - especially for Hero. Despite the low budget appearance, there was a good deal of production value involved in both of those presentations.
Why show that there were more fighters after Terry, if they knew there were more from the get go? Because that's good television. We were advertised 5 fighters. That's two less than Smash 4, in a game that was already packed with every character we already had, and 1 more than Smash 4 if you consider newcomers only. 5 is a convincing number to assume "that's all we're getting". Then, here we are, at the doorstep of the final character. People's hopes and dreams are on the line, everyone acts like they've never heard "AH YU OKE?", tons of people are disappointed at "Ken in a Hat" - boom.
more fighters.
Take a look at the reaction videos. Imagine how much less hype there would be in general had they said last November "ok 10 fighters on the way" and number 4 is Terry friggin' Bogard. People would shrug, move along, and wait for the next one. Since this is a fighting game, the analogy fits very well to say that we're the audience at a wrestling match. It's all story driven, but we only barely know that while we're watching - the action is real enough. Of course Sakurai's gonna say something to go along with the narrative of "here's more fighters for you", when he knows that we know that he's a workaholic. There's no way Nintendo doesn't capitalize on the fact that tons of people are legitimately worried for the man's health and want him to take a break from something that he very obviously loves doing, so he says things like "man, will I ever get a break?" or "the goalpost is moving further away". A huge chunk of the audience eats that up and some shed legitimate tears for the hell he's putting himself through. Again, it's good television. The showmanship is incredible.
I could be wrong about this, maybe Nintendo really did just come up to Sakurai right after Banjo and say "alright buddy more DLC time" and he's legitimately heartbroken that he can't take a break from this. Maybe under that desk there's a ball and chain on his leg and he's just faking that smile and good humor, but I think the aim was to not let the hype die down for as long as they plan to support the game in a big way. Just keep the updates and the characters rolling out to keep the fans happy and the late adopters able to come in to something still growing and changing. Someone mentioned a while back about how long Sakurai claims it takes to develop a character - approximately a year from the ground up, including securing the rights, and they said that would mean we wouldn't see a second wave character until September next year, which doesn't seem like Nintendo's plan here, where we're getting a new character every 3 months, give or take the average. I can't see them having that much dead zone from their latest expected date of February 2020.
