Anyone thinking Cloud is a ballot character has no basic understanding of character development in fighting games. The ballot just ended last month. Ballot characters being developed probably haven't even finished pre-production.
Fighting game characters need 4-8 months of development minimum based on what open developers of 2D fighting game IP's like Mortal Kombat, BlazBlue, Guilty Gear, Street Fighter, King of Fighters, etc have said, and that is assuming the staff can handle them. That is not counting all the work that went into that stage, or the fact other DLC such as outfits, additional stages, other characters, or even that patching is going on.
Seriously, if you think they finished that stage in a month, you are not living in the real world.
Cloud has been a "pipe dream" character since the dawn of forever for Smash. People have wanted Link vs. Cloud before Smash ever had its' first title released. It's like... up there with Sonic vs. Mario. Heck, the Square Enix and Nintendo contract negotiations took longer than a month. Second party contract negations take longer than a month.
If anything, Cloud was planned for a long time; probably over a year. He could have been an "on and off" project for years even, especially considering Smash 4 had a pre-production of over a year (most AA games have a 3 months period of pre-production).
Cloud might have been put on the back burner as DLC, much like what I theorized happen with Ryu. Given the immense detail both characters and their stages have, I don't really see much of an argument for the opposing side.
So I'm curious for your opinion on chances of Wolf getting in, and the appeal thereof.
I'd think with the upcoming SF game (give or take if you like what you've seen so far), Nintendo would release Wolf as a way to promote the games release. SF Zero is coming out this holiday season, the last direct concerning Smash is coming out in December, put the two and two together and you get the likelihood of Wolf. The timing couldn't be better.
Let me put it to you this way: I just updated my Smash roster maker, and added Cloud and Wolf as "confirmed" characters.
That's how sure I am that Wolf is gonna be announced in December (and if not then very soon). Like you said, "the timing couldn't be better."
Really, Wolf was pretty much confirmed after Lucas was confirmed; Roy further sealed this deal (oh God the accidental puns).