I agree with most of what you said on polling, but I want to discuss point 1 an 2 and I think you'll see where I'm coming from.
The argument was never that Cloud was less well known or less popular in the wider gaming audience than Geno. That's not debatable.
What I'm saying is Geno is a better choice given the audience for Smash.
To avoid confusion, let me make it more simple. The audience of Super Smash Brothers is Nintendo fans. This should be self evident given that Smash fans tend to like other Nintendo properties, and of course they own Nintendo hardware. So the characters are Nintendo systems will appeal to Smash fans the most because Smash fans are generally Nintendo fans. Why were Sonic and Megaman popular. Because Nintendo fans like these characters. Megaman was originally on the NES. A
ccording to Sega, the Sonic audience is on Nintendo systems.
So why am I saying Cloud is a bad pick. Final Fantasy 7 was on the Playstaion and PCs. The Final Fantasy 7 remake is, as of now, a Playstation exclusive. So what systems do you think a fan of Cloud would own. Probably a PS4. Would a Nintendo fan like Final Fantasy 7? Perhaps, but that is dependent on if they owned Playstation and Nintendo hardware. Not everyone does.
Compare this to Geno. His game is on the SNES and the Virtual Console. Nintendo fans usually own Nintendo hardware, so it is likely they played this game. It's also a Mario game, so a Nintendo fan would likely play this game.
Now, compare the two characters. Cloud is exclusive to the Playstation. If Smash is played by Nintendo fans, is he a good choice. No, because it is likely Nintendo fans did not play his game and may not care about it or the remake. To put it more simply, why would a Nintendo fan want a Playstation exclusive character? More people may know Cloud,
but you are ultimately confusing knowledge with demand. Tingle is a well known character too, but he's not in Smash because he isn't popular (even hated). Geno is obscure, but when your target audience is Nintendo fans, and Geno is a popular, albeit obscure, character among the fanbase, wouldn't he make a better choice. I think the other side of the argument has assumed the characters is practically unknown, but
Super Mario RPG sold 1.47 million units in Japan.
I'm comparing these two because they are both owned by Square. My argument is that since Nintendo went and got the license, why not go for a character that will appeal to their demographic. Is there better characters than Geno. Probably. But if you are going through the work, why not grab a character that is, heck, a Mario character.
Yes, Sakurai is not a business man, but that is irrelevant. Sakurai doesn't will quality. Him wanting to add IPs does not make Cloud a good choice. I think what I stated above summarizes the issue. In fairness, Sakurai will explain more come the December Direct so I do want to give him the benefit of the doubt. Lastly, Geno is a Mario character. He is not owned by Nintendo, but he probably wouldn't be a guest character.
I've continued this too long and I probably missed something. This is probably rough, so sorry if I come off as rude. Really only meant to reply to one, but oh well. I'm out of town, but I'll happily continue this via PM if you really want to continue this. Otherwise, carry on.