Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance | Final Chapter

[Rajam]

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@Rajam

If your ability is real, use it on FrozenFlame now. This will confirm his alignment (which is pretty close to clear right now) and, more importantly, keep him around towards endgame.

I don't understand that, what it will prove, and how?

Also, should I use it if we're in twilight? (No idea if we're already on twilight or if it's still Day)

 

[Beat!]

It's Day until Xiivi says its Twilight.

 

[Raziek]

Ah, I see. What OS said makes sense.

If FF is sealed tonight, and he's the abductor, there won't be an abduction, and we can lynch him after.

If he's Town, this protects him for a full day.

Only danger is if mafia deliberately doesn't abduct in order to frame FF as scum.

 

[Rajam]

His ability claim "checks out". However, given that Ashnard had many abilities, some of which showed him others abilities and actions, I'd suspect the abductor to have the same.

If FF is "sealed" toDay, we'll know if there's no abduction tonight that he would have to go tomorrow. But as I said, more importantly, he'll simply be guaranteed to be around for an entire phase.

Note however that the identity of the sealed player isn't revealed (I suppose another dumb ??? thing would appear, but I'm certainly sure the identity and role won't be revealed). Also, note that FF would come back either at Twilight 5 or Night 5 (Night 5 if we're at Twilight now), and I think it's the worst moment for coming back regardless of if he is town or scum

 

[Raziek]

The point is to narrow the pool by means of who ISN'T the abductor.

So as long as he's blocked tonight, we have a good chance to take him off the list.

If mafia decides not to kill, that means OS gets a free scan, and Town gets another Day.

If Sealing during Day gets him out during twilight, I would do that ASAP.

 

[Xiivi]

5/9 | 03.15.11 11:59AM EST

votee|voters
Ranmaru|BeatStick/Red Ryu/Raziek/

Raziek |giraffelasergun/Ranmaru/

No Vote|Nicholas1024/frozenflame751/Rajam/Overswarm/

 

[Rajam]

Let's assume worst case scenario:

Ran flips town (I'm assuming he already got lynched)
FF is town
OS is cop and is removed toNight

That'd leave next day 6 players: me, Raziek, BeatStick, glg, Red Ryu, Nich

if OS is cop, then glg is town, plus me, plus Nich, plus BeatStick. We'd be ok

Now, let's assume OS is lying, and Ran is town, FF is town, and someone else is removed toNight (glg?)

That'd leave me, OS, Raziek, Nich, BeatStick, RR. With OS scum BeatStick is very likely scum, and with just someone else as scum among Raziek, RR, we're dead

...

 

[Raziek]

Ah, so Day isn't over yet? This is good, then, we don't have to worry about Rajam's seal failing for the moment.

unvote

Until we're officially ready to end the day.

 

[Rajam]

oh good it isn't twilight yet
Let's think it a little more...

 

[Rajam]

OS why wasn't your vote counted?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Why are we taking votes off Ranmaru?

 

[Raziek]

I'm actually extremely confused.

We had OS, BeatStick, Red Ryu, Rajam, and myself, all voting on Ran.

That's 5.

Why didn't the day end?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Let me check, maybe miscount?

 

[Raziek]

Except Xivii confirms in the main post that there isn't a jester.


I'm uncomfortable with Ranmaru too, but it's a moot point. Do we want him in lylo? Will the abductor feel the need to abduct him? Will scum feel the need to kill him?

I'd personally rather lynch Ran toDay instead of having him an inch away from being lynched every Day phase.

I don't trust a silver platter, but sometimes people panic.

vote: Ranmaru

@mod request votecount

5/9 | 03.15.11 11:59AM EST

votee|voters
Ranmaru|BeatStick/Overswarm/

Raziek |giraffelasergun/

No Vote|Nicholas1024/Rajam/Ranmaru/Red Ryu/Raziek/frozenflame751/

We have two votes on Ran here.

vote: Ranmaru

As I said earlier I got rblocked, and I strongly think there is a rolecop or something like that, or else I don't see why would I have got rblocked, isntead of OS for example. Considering I have considered Ranmaru scum the whole game, I think scum considered the strong chance I would have affected them if I used my ability in an anti-Ranmaru way, so I think it only helps to confirm Ran as scum. (Also as I said earlier too, I think my scum reads could be pretty accurate).

I'll claim later too, because I think scum already knows my role, but only after FF answers my question, and I think I'll claim only after Ranmaru claims.

3

unvote

@GLG, Raziek or Ranmaru?

2

unvote

That Ranmaru claim... I have no idea. It's too strange; I've never heard of such ability. Actually I don't get it... Ran you write things for yourself, and then when you die your notes become public?

Does anyone knows how that kind of ability can be used in a protown way??

1

Cool.

unvote
vote Ranmaru

2

Vote: Ranmaru

Gonna go with this now.

I'm worried but heck, I don't support a Raziek lynch, Rajam, FF, or really anyone else to the levels Ranmaru is at for me.

3

@FF's question: If you read towards the start of the day, regarding my random questioning session, I already told OS OUT LOUD that I had someone's claim. All that accidental hint did was narrow the pool to those four.

Shall I reveal the claim that I have, or send it to OS tonight?

Also, pretty sure Ran is dead already, but I'll throw this on the pile since it seems to be the plan of action.

vote: Ranmaru.

4

@Mod

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@Rajam

If your ability is real, use it on FrozenFlame now. This will confirm his alignment (which is pretty close to clear right now) and, more importantly, keep him around towards endgame.

3.

Nevermind, I stand corrected, we only got up to 4.

 

[Rajam]

I unvoted a long time ago

 

[Rajam]

OS I still don't fully get your plan on removing FF, what happens in worst case scenario, and why it has to be FF, and not other players like Raziek or Red Ryu

 

[Raziek]

I'm aware of that, I did too.

So, since the Day isn't yet over, all that really remains is whether or not you're going to use your ability, Rajam.

Though, Ran still acted as though he was town when he thought he was lynched, so what do?

 

[Nicholas1024]

Alright, here's my analysis of our situation right now.

Ran has been just plain ridiculous. I don't see how the claim makes any sense as a town PR, and I don't need to recount how scummy he's been. Yes, he almost seems too scummy, but does anyone here really want him in lylo? Me neither.

The main thing I'm worried about right now is OS being scum. If he's town, then that gives us essentially 4 clears (me, GLG, him, and FF), and the game is basically in the bag. However, if he's scum (which IS possible), we're in a very bad situation. He's basically been town's leader today (and if he remains alive, will likely stay that way through further days), the indy-nabbing of CDubs really vaulted him into semi-clear status, and nobody really thinks he's scum now that X1 is gone.

However, for the sake of keeping an open mind, let's go through the possibility of OS-scum, and how that might play out. (Note: I don't actually believe all of this stuff myself yet. However, ever since Cello-DBZ and Omni-Mario Kart, I've gotten a bit paranoid with blindly trusting people into endgame.) Nothing he's done as of yet is conclusively anti-mafia. He claims having investigated me N1, but by the time he revealed it, I was basically semi-cleared given my night actions (not fakeclaiming a census result, proving my coroner by being voteblocked, etc.) His double action N2 (since FF supports this, I think it's likely OS scum = FF scum and vice versa) was a townread on X1 (unlikely to be scum given the Zen flip, gives OS an excuse not to go after X1 any more), and the scum shot on CDubs who flipped indy, not mafia. This strongly supports OS having some sort of investigative powers, but there are other explanations then the claimed cop. Mafia stalker would be the main one, but maybe he got an anonymous watcher report of CDubs making the kill. The cop claim (which is the main reason he wasn't lynched D3) could be a safeclaim, which though unlikely, has precedent. (I refer you to that idiotic ripoff that was supposedly Dgames mafia by Steel, where there was basically a doc safeclaim, and Kirby King's unintended consequences, which had a half-power cop safeclaim.)

The other thing I'd like to look at would be X1 going after OS non-stop. Given OS claimed a town-read, we can safely assume X1-town either way. Also, via the watcher report (I forget who claimed it), X1 visited Frozenflame last night.

Let's do a bit of role guessing. There is no way X1 was vig, or roleblocker, as FF is still alive and his action went through (and X1 was still seen visiting). We already have a watcher style role out there somewhere. And finally, does anyone believe X1/Fire would have protected FF? Anyone? Not nearly active enough to merit that. So, I think X1 was likely some sort of investigative role, which would be a reason to visit FF (we already have a cop claim, but he could be a tracker, for example). If X1 was investigative, this might explain his attitude towards OS. Despite OS's cop claim, and CDubs admitting he was anti-town, X1 was still incredibly angry at OS living. If X1 had some sort of incriminating evidence on OS from previous nights, that might explain it.

Anyway, I admit all this is a long shot (a very long shot, actually), and I don't think OS is scum right now. However, I do want to keep an eye on him and remind you guys not to go into endgame blindly trusting anyone.

Frozenflame's alignment = OS's alignment. OS's double cop investigations are the reason people believe Frozenflame, but OS is the only one whose word we have for Frozenflame's actions. Not much more to be said here.

By the way, did Overswarm ever claim his results from last night? If he did I think I missed it.




@Rajam
I would seriously consider just forgetting about your ability now. If there's 3 scum left, you could cause endgame with a miss. Do not want.

 

[Raziek]

@Nich:

Overswarm claimed BeatStick as Town.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

@ Rajam: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12327557&postcount=2419

I agree with you that the Black Knight has every reason to be a role in this game. What I don't agree with is basically every other assumption you are making.

In PoR, the Black Knight was primarily represented as simply one of the 4 Riders. His "indyness" doesn't really come into focus until RD. If the 4 riders were our mafia, then he'd fit there perfectly.

Not saying that it isn't likely that the Black Knight is indy versus scum as a role if he's even in the game, but it's just dangerous to tunnel flavour like that based on your own perceptions of the game, especially when this game is specifically PoR flavour based, and NOT RD.

Also, I agree the lack on NK's in this game suggests a non-killing scum faction, however those very same NKs could have not gone through because of 1.) Good doc protects 2.) Multiple killers targetting the same people and overlapping/abductor overlapping NKs 3.) Killers hitting BP people 4.) Killers getting RB'd, and the list goes on.

Not considering the full breadth of possibilities in large games like this isn't going to help anyone.

@ Raz: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12328869&postcount=2427

Gotcha, missed that my bad. Hmmm, I'm curious about what you have but I don't know what marginal benefit we seek to gain from that info that would outweigh the fact that we're also potentially outing another PR for the scum, though at this point we have so many PRs and confirms in terms of modconfirms and investigative confirms that I doubt we'd be radically changing the top choices for the scum.

Up to you really if you feel the info is good enough to help us really clear something up, or if saving it for later is likely more beneficial.

As far as this sealing business goes, pretty interesting role. If you guys really don't trust me that much and want to seal me in an attempt to clear or condemn me as abductor, go for it. You wont lose out on anything night action wise from me (like I told you, I'm functional VT now), and I have no problem being protected from being abducted or killed for a night. It's a dangerous assumption though to think that abductors are generally compulsive. As a matter of fact, by design abductors usually aren't specified as compulsive from my experience but I have no idea what Xiivi would have done. This does set me up to potentially be framed but meh, that's a discussion we can have when I come later if it actually happens. Best case (from my perspective) is the abductor IS compulsive, someone else gets taken, and I come back essentially cleared.

Sealing ability, if it is legit, should be used to narrow our abductor pool. If that means sealing me then by all means, do it.

Vote: Ranmaru

Don't know how long its gonna be till I have extended access to the net again so I'll leave that there. I'm comfortable moving on whenever. With Ran gone, if he isn't the abductor, at least our last major distraction will be out of the picture for crucial late game.

 

[Overswarm]

OS why wasn't your vote counted?

I unvoted earlier, as did Raziek.

Why are we taking votes off Ranmaru?

We want to make sure we're ready to end the day. We have new information to consider.

 

[Overswarm]

OS I still don't fully get your plan on removing FF, what happens in worst case scenario, and why it has to be FF, and not other players like Raziek or Red Ryu

Raziek says he has information about someone's role. We don't want to remove him.

The fact that we don't have information on Red Ryu, Beatstick, or Ranmaru's role means it is one of theirs. Ran is being lynched today and we have a clear on Beatstick. So either way, we reduce our field down for potential abductor, which is better odds. Removing one of them leaves FF in the mix, since his ability is only post-confirmed, not action-confirmed.

I'm aware of that, I did too.

So, since the Day isn't yet over, all that really remains is whether or not you're going to use your ability, Rajam.

Though, Ran still acted as though he was town when he thought he was lynched, so what do?

Everyone acts like they're town until they flip. Everyone.

Rajam needs to use his ability on someone that is effectively a VT that we need to keep in the game. Nich would be fine. FF would be fine. FF is my personal pick because he'd be much better in lylo. Either would work.

@ Rajam: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12327557&postcount=2419

I agree with you that the Black Knight has every reason to be a role in this game. What I don't agree with is basically every other assumption you are making.

In PoR, the Black Knight was primarily represented as simply one of the 4 Riders. His "indyness" doesn't really come into focus until RD. If the 4 riders were our mafia, then he'd fit there perfectly.

Not saying that it isn't likely that the Black Knight is indy versus scum as a role if he's even in the game, but it's just dangerous to tunnel flavour like that based on your own perceptions of the game, especially when this game is specifically PoR flavour based, and NOT RD.

Also, I agree the lack on NK's in this game suggests a non-killing scum faction, however those very same NKs could have not gone through because of 1.) Good doc protects 2.) Multiple killers targetting the same people and overlapping/abductor overlapping NKs 3.) Killers hitting BP people 4.) Killers getting RB'd, and the list goes on.

Not considering the full breadth of possibilities in large games like this isn't going to help anyone.

@ Raz: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12328869&postcount=2427

Gotcha, missed that my bad. Hmmm, I'm curious about what you have but I don't know what marginal benefit we seek to gain from that info that would outweigh the fact that we're also potentially outing another PR for the scum, though at this point we have so many PRs and confirms in terms of modconfirms and investigative confirms that I doubt we'd be radically changing the top choices for the scum.

Up to you really if you feel the info is good enough to help us really clear something up, or if saving it for later is likely more beneficial.

As far as this sealing business goes, pretty interesting role. If you guys really don't trust me that much and want to seal me in an attempt to clear or condemn me as abductor, go for it. You wont lose out on anything night action wise from me (like I told you, I'm functional VT now), and I have no problem being protected from being abducted or killed for a night. It's a dangerous assumption though to think that abductors are generally compulsive. As a matter of fact, by design abductors usually aren't specified as compulsive from my experience but I have no idea what Xiivi would have done. This does set me up to potentially be framed but meh, that's a discussion we can have when I come later if it actually happens. Best case (from my perspective) is the abductor IS compulsive, someone else gets taken, and I come back essentially cleared.

Sealing ability, if it is legit, should be used to narrow our abductor pool. If that means sealing me then by all means, do it.

Vote: Ranmaru

Don't know how long its gonna be till I have extended access to the net again so I'll leave that there. I'm comfortable moving on whenever. With Ran gone, if he isn't the abductor, at least our last major distraction will be out of the picture for crucial late game.

I agree that Ran needs to go toDay.

While it is possible you could be framed by a lack of abduction, I doubt this will be the case. I get two investigations tomorrow, so the abductor basically has to abduct me. That puts him at instant-lose if there's any sort of watching role right there, and if he doesn't I'll be able to investigate and get results.

There are 8 players right now.

If the abductor doesn't have some sort of godfather ability, it leaves the following as possible abductors:

Frozen Flame, Rajam, Ranmaru, Red Ryu, Raziek

Once you're sealed, that'll be that. Ranmaru is being lynched today. We now have three R's: Rajam, Red Ryu, Raziek.

I investigate two of them.

Two town, we lynch the other. One town one scum, we lynch the scum or the other. Two scum, we lynch one of those two. Either way, ridiculously in our favor.

So I basically have to be abducted.

If I'm not, even if there is no abduction and I'm roleblocked and we think you should go, we're down to 7 players from the lynch. Lynch you to go down to 6, if you're not the abductor he obviously has to abduct again, right? We're down to 5 on the next day. One lynch and one abduction, we're down to 3 and that's lylo.


I'd also like to add that, barring any unforseen circumstances, Rajam using his ability on FrozenFlame makes Raziek or Red Ryu the play for toMorrow if Ran doesn't flip abductor.

Given Raziek's gambity early claim and constant "I'm town" statements and also consistently buddying me, I'd be inclined to believe he has a high chance of being the abductor. This still requires thought tomorrow.


Rajam, definitely use your ability on Frozen Flame. I don't want FF to be pseudo-cleared based off of some extra ability he might have as the abductor.

vote Ranmaru

 

[giraffelasergun]

I don't really understand why Rajam decided to claim but I do agree that he should prove his action before twilight, and I think him getting blocked might prove that town does have a roleblocker as it wouldn't make much sense for scum to roleblock him last night. I think tomorrow we may need to mass claim.

OS, if I help you lynch ran today will you help me lynch raziek tomorrow?

 

[Overswarm]

I'm not going to "commit" to lynching someone before we have more information, but if the playing field stays the same then Raziek is the play for toMorrow, so I'd vote for him, yes.

 

[giraffelasergun]

Right, that was under the assumption that you didn't get a town cop read on him.

Are we ready for twilight?

 

[Raziek]

Alright, well, I don't really see a reason NOT to post it, since we've narrowed the field an extreme amount.

I sent a message to Red Ryu last night.

Spoiler

I guess for Raziek's question, I guess my first liked one is Janaff, dudes pretty cool. For a close second I like Brom.

Odd question, why you asking this?

When you match it up with my instructions, Red Ryu's claim becomes Janaff, with an investigative role.

I found what appears to be a breadcrumb supporting this.

I'm a stalker of Gylph.

So, obviously I don't know if Red Ryu is telling the truth or not, but if he is, he's Janaff, Stalker/Watcher

If he's telling the truth, that means he can watch OS tonight and we can nab the abductor if he goes for OS. Otherwise, the abductor would have to take Ryu instead, which buys OS one more night of coppin'.

If OS isn't the cop, well, I've gone and ****ed us, but, that's a risk I'm willing to take. I don't even know if Ryu is telling the truth.

It'll all come out in the wash.

 

[Overswarm]

omg Raziek you are an idiot.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Problem with that, I don't get the results, you know those random messages going around, that me I don't pick where they go.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Yeah I was gonna watch OS but no Raziek revealed me and now I'm boned. I could have done it without you blabing so early.

Thanks a lot Raziek.

 

[Overswarm]

Wait, you don't decide where your messages go?

 

[giraffelasergun]

Hey OS, can I ask you why you think FF might be abductor/scum of sorts?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Nope.

I don't see the message, nor do I see where it goes.

 

[Raziek]

So if he can't decide where they go, there's a good chance this wasn't going to help anyway?

*sigh*

I'm sorry guys. Can someone please tell me what the problem is between this, exactly?

We knew OS was probably going to get abducted.

Everyone has claimed now (except BeatStick), correct? That means someone is lying. We can find out pretty easily.

Rajam, seal me or FF. OS gets a cop, or Ryu sees who abducts OS.

If Rajam seals me away, I'd put money on Ran or Nich.

We haven't sealed our lynch yet.

 

[Overswarm]

Hey OS, can I ask you why you think FF might be abductor/scum of sorts?

Remember when CDubs caught my eye because he mentioned the abductor first?

I pressured him afterwards and found the responses to be as I predicted. I wrongly predicted he was the abductor, but I did find an indie.

Unfortunately, I was wrong about how brought up the abductor first. It's the most standard tell of all. First person to declare a role = likely culprit. More accurately, anyone who tries to steer public perception of the role early on and during key moments is a likely culprit.

Looking back, FF was the first one to talk about it, as CDubs said. But he kinda fell off the face of the earth when ti came to the abductor afterwards unless specifically questioned. Since then, he's still avoided the subject. Raziek has too, but FF has also said odd things like "just remember, if I get sealed tonight he might just not abduct to frame me" when any check shows the math doesn't work out for the abductor if he does. The abductor HAS to get rid of someone.

So things like that scream to me "abductor". Given that ashnard had in his abilities enough to make an awesome fake claim, I can see the abductor being the same.

That said, Ran still goes toDay. "Mercenary Journal" doesn't even make sense. Journal is a thing, not an occupation.

 

[Raziek]

2. BeatStick OS cleared
4. frozenflame751 Claimed Leanne, Supporter
5. Ranmaru Claimed Elincia, Mercenary Journal
6. giraffelasergun Vanilla
9. Nicholas1024 Claimed Ike, Town Census Taker/ Coroner
10. Overswarm Claimed Boyd, Town Cop
11. Rajam Claimed Soren, Town Sealer
12. Raziek Ranulf, Town Agent
13. Red Ryu Claimed Janaff, Town Stalker

Ran and Nich are the claims that stick out as wrong and unproven. Rajam seals me, and lynch Ran or Nich.

Is that a problem?

 

[Overswarm]

I'd rather seal Frozen Flame, for reasons stated prior.

 

[ranmaru]

I don't even know why it's not journalist. That's what the role says, Journal.

 

[Raziek]

That's fine too. Might I suggest unvoting until Rajam performs his seal?

unvote if I haven't already.

 

[Overswarm]

This is not related to the game, but sam388? I see you watching this thread you ROB main you. You can't post in here cuz the game's already started, but you should join the DGames community and enter one of the newbie games. :D

 

[Overswarm]

That's fine too. Might I suggest unvoting until Rajam performs his seal?

unvote if I haven't already.

No. We want Rajam to use his ability in twilight so it ends at next Twilight.