Final Fantasy Tactics Advance Mafia - Game Over!

[Detective Sherlock Hound]

It's possible that I have stopped the kill. In fact, it's the most likely scenario because I have roleblocked no less than 4 players toNight - Gorf, DSH, Acrostic and Scary. Scary flipping town would not clear HBW via DSH's claim.

Gadgeteer?

 

[Detective Sherlock Hound]

You might as well claim it with what number you picked with silence, it's only 1 of two ways I can see you doing that and the second is extremely unlikely.

 

[Detective Sherlock Hound]

You might as well claim it with what number you picked with silence, it's only 1 of two ways I can see you doing that and the second is extremely unlikely.

 

[Maximum Carnage]

Not possible to have sent in kill due to kill not be effective, sans any sort of bulletproofness we don't know about:
6. J
8. Dabuz
10. Town PR (Glyph/Ranmaru)
11. Jdietz43
12. Gheb_01
13. Nabe
14. Vult Redux

Could have sent in kill and been stopped:
9. LBScary59 Roleblocked by Nabe, Roleblocked by Gheb
2. Raziek Acrostic Roleblocked by Gheb
7. Gorf Roleblocked by Gheb

Could have stopped kill:

4. WashedLaundry Swiss Probably tried to RB Carnage and someone else

Could have been targeted by the Kill:
1. Nameless (marshy/Sworddancer.) HardbodyWarrior Bardull Protected by DSH, possible target assuming DSH wasn't effectively roleblocked

Couldn't have sent in kill:
3. MAXIMUM CARNAGE Used Illusionist level 2, couldn't send in kill

Unlikely to have sent in kill:
5. Detective Sherlock Hound (Joey/Red Ruy) (due to protecting HBW and claiming Priest, which can be confirmed easily and Roleblocked by Gheb so still a potential suspect)


Just gotta hear from @ Swiss .

@LBScary59, @Acrostic, @ #HBC | Gorf , you three! Fight to the death.

 

[Maximum Carnage]

It should be noted the top 7 could have possibly sent in kills towards Bardull, but statistically speaking it is more likely that one of the 3 roleblocks did it.

People who were not roleblocked that we know of that could have used Doom on Nabe:
6. J
8. Dabuz
10. Town PR (Glyph/Ranmaru)
11. Jdietz43
12. Gheb_01
13. Nabe
14. Vult Redux
Swiss
Detective Sherlock Hound

Not Doomers:
LBScary59
Acrostic
Gorf

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Could have been targeted by the Kill:
1. Nameless (marshy/Sworddancer.) HardbodyWarrior Bardull Protected by DSH, possible target assuming DSH wasn't effectively roleblocked

I did roleblock DSH though so Bardull could NOT have been targeted by the kill.

 

[Maximum Carnage]

Possibly. He could also be level 1 soldier or you been roleblocked as well

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

MC couldn't have made an NK last Night. So, if my roleblock did block a kill last Night, that kill was Scary. I also doubt that MC has any sort of Dooming reactive passive in conjunction with a Lv 2 choice, if he were scum. Coupled with reasoning addressed by others on Scary, I think that lynch is a good move toDay.

Is this really why scary is a good play to you? How do you feel about the slot outside of this role speculation?

Why is this the ****ing basis for lynching people like are people just saying **** play I MAY have stopped the kill when this game is crawling with possible ways to stop the NK?

 

[Dabuz]

Read Acro's case and I find a couple points in it good, but the majority of it is not so good. He does go explain WHY he finds things scummy about J, but most of the reasons are a combination of not accurate or not indicative of J being scummy. While it's very obvious that Acro's intent is to get J lynched on the basis he's scum, it's not going to be enough to change opinions and it doesn't look good when compared to other large posts which are equally weak. IDK if this is bad play or scummy, but i'd lean scummy because I feel like reasoning from a own player would be more, sensible and it's not like his other posts have given me a good impression.

I remember seeing this but I was distracted, sorry.

Yeah I'm for Scary wagon.

Has your DSH read changed since he started posting again and explained his hydra issues?

I can't say I lean scum on him or want him lynched because I think I like where his/Nabe's interaction is going today (still tbd). Specifically my issue with his interaction with you yesterday was that he had really weak points on you and when you refuted them

as you yourself pointed out:

he moved on without acknowledging it.

For DSH, I've noticed today with his 1385 and 1481 that he looks directionless and in his 1513 he's unsure on Scary so it's like, maybe he's biding time to see which wagon to go onto but it could still just be lack of direction. Those end up being null by themselves and really only feed into one of my main points about him that he doesn't appear to be scum hunting, but when I can see the reasons for that lack of direction as town and only lean scum based on his previous play which makes me read him as scum, it isn't a strong addition to my read. Why ask specifically about this though?

Ok, fair enough regarding MC.

Between Town Scary and Scum Scary, where his priorities seem to be.

Trying to see what his main goal is, the thing is I don't see what he has done this game that is only pertaining to scum behavior. I do think he has been scummy at points but I think this still can be attributed to his ability rather than being scummy. It's tricky, It's not meta outside of his experience, he isn't as experianced as a lot of players in this game, and I think people lose sight of this in games.

Like how people have been jumping and hounding Scary this game. I think someone for him would get lost in something like that if people kept super pressure on him, I dunno if he can handle that if people are quick to snap at him.

Not in the game I referenced, G3S is where Rake called out Scary and ignored his experience, me and others weren't liking how people were ignoring this since it does play a part in how you can read a slot.

I don't think Scary is scum, rather he got caught up in a situation people are calling scummy when he really got lost in the situation.

I wouldn't even say Scary has been getting hounded or pressured much this game till he came out with those reads, even then he's had people come to his defense and he's had the opportunities to clarify and make his thoughts understandable. I can relate to when i had low experience and my reads were kind of, bad even as town. However at the same time it's like I also was able to defend them more and justify what I said despite the problems with them, I can't say I saw Scary doing that. Scary flat out has a load of issues in his thought process and responses in those posts I told you to look at. I also just think Scary as town would care a little about asking real questions, where in this game I don't see that intent.

I'll check these again but again, these can be just him not reacting as he does under pressure and his experience. Bad substantiation and reacted bad to pressure, yeah I can agree here, but I don't think he was scummy over bad.

This is a tricky situation, not one that I think is easy for me to read, but I'm more inclined here to side with him being town than scummy. I'll vote him if we are deadlined, but really I can't side with lynching him.

Vote: J

Can you show me anything from Scary's play that specifically speaks pro-town?

Also, do you agree with Acro's case on J or are you voting him for other reasons? I know in your 1454 you stated a dislike for him not doing much outside of Scary pressure but I figure you have more reasoning if you're voting him now.

 

[Dabuz]

Not possible to have sent in kill due to kill not be effective, sans any sort of bulletproofness we don't know about:
6. J
8. Dabuz
10. Town PR (Glyph/Ranmaru)
11. Jdietz43
12. Gheb_01
13. Nabe
14. Vult Redux

Could have sent in kill and been stopped:
9. LBScary59 Roleblocked by Nabe, Roleblocked by Gheb
2. Raziek Acrostic Roleblocked by Gheb
7. Gorf Roleblocked by Gheb

Could have stopped kill:

4. WashedLaundry Swiss Probably tried to RB Carnage and someone else

Could have been targeted by the Kill:
1. Nameless (marshy/Sworddancer.) HardbodyWarrior Bardull Protected by DSH, possible target assuming DSH wasn't effectively roleblocked

Couldn't have sent in kill:
3. MAXIMUM CARNAGE Used Illusionist level 2, couldn't send in kill

Unlikely to have sent in kill:
5. Detective Sherlock Hound (Joey/Red Ruy) (due to protecting HBW and claiming Priest, which can be confirmed easily and Roleblocked by Gheb so still a potential suspect)

Just gotta hear from @ Swiss .

@LBScary59, @Acrostic, @ #HBC | Gorf , you three! Fight to the death.

It should be noted the top 7 could have possibly sent in kills towards Bardull, but statistically speaking it is more likely that one of the 3 roleblocks did it.

People who were not roleblocked that we know of that could have used Doom on Nabe:
6. J
8. Dabuz
10. Town PR (Glyph/Ranmaru)
11. Jdietz43
12. Gheb_01
13. Nabe
14. Vult Redux
Swiss
Detective Sherlock Hound

Not Doomers:
LBScary59
Acrostic
Gorf

I did roleblock DSH though so Bardull could NOT have been targeted by the kill.

Unvote

So pretty much this summarizes the NA stuff until Swiss comes in?

 

[#HBC | J]

I agree with Gorf. There is an ample amount of reasons as to why the NK could have been stopped. To be completely honest, I think it has a huge deal of luck for mafia to even get a real NK. So I am looking at things a bit differently, I think based on things, it would be actually weird if mafia did get a NK through. However there are even more things I have yet to delve into, morely because I am thinking of so many different angles this game because of the amount of people and how reads are changing rapidly. One thing that I need to read more into is this Nabe/MC letting bygons be bygons and having each other as town and helping each other out.

Speaking of odd behaviour, DSH has wandered into vision again but that's only because of the Ruy half. The Joey half I like, but Ruy always seems to come in to befuddle my read on that slot. I would like to ask this: Ruy, have you consulted with Joey on your opinion of me and, in fact, voting me? Joey had me as a town read that he liked besides one odd thing that was mainly based on gut. Then you come in and make a post on things not really even relevant to me and also nothing adressing me but you end up voting me in the end of said post. It makes it look like your slot has schizo fever and reminds me of a Dongenroppa character (without the harshness of them).

Let's continue talking things through though because that is how we will be able to come up with more answers and paper trails to follow.

To all of those not voting Scary, what is delaying this action? There are multiple people who are hesitating due to other reasons. The role speculation argument has gone on long enough. (Looking at you @ Maximum Carnage and @ #HBC | Nabe ) This is something I was afraid from, from the beginning that this game would become...dull in the fact that people would decide to continue to talk about roles and make it be the center of discussion and play the game based on NAs instead of people actually playing the game. This is what happened in the original FF:Tactics, if I am remembering correctly. (Town won, but I think that was more to someone slipping up in the end big time). So let's hear it with some actual scum-reads from people that hold some weight. I want a reason why people shouldn't be voting Scary/who we should be voting. I do not even want to hear the reason *I don't want to quick-lynch* or *I am waiting on a response*. I want concrete things so we can finally begin to draw connections based on actions from people.

Continuing on, @ Vult Redux : You said that I was a back-up scum-read. Can you go into this more, especially since you have decided to join me with your vote and this is the first I am remembering you adressing me as a lynch candidate besides being "weird" to you, which is the basic summarization of everyone's opinion of me. Which is fine, it just is hindering me from getting reactions from people regarding me, so until I become bigger in the limelight as a lynch candidate, I am not gonna pursue things like *Why am I weird?* or *J is off* because it is full of air.

I believe I am missing smaller things from people like Dabuz and Ranmaru so I will address those in another post.

 

[#HBC | J]

I don't understand this vote. Wouldn't you be more interested in voting Acrostic after seeing his case considering you found the case bad?

Basically, if my suspicions are correct, Scary+Acro/WL are adding up to be a scum-combo for me. Based on their interactions towards one another, mainly Acro's/WL's moreso than Scary's, however based on statistics and playing around with numbers, Scary has a higher percentage of flipping scum then Acro/WL. But let's sidebar that for now, that'll come up in Acro's trial rather than Scary's since it has more to do with Scary's flip which I would need to confirm my suspicions.

 

[#HBC | J]

Forgot to tag them, but:

@ Detective Sherlock Hound
@Red Ryu

My 1653 second paragraph is all yours.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I've also started to lean towards a Scary + Acro team in my recent thought process and posts. Not sure why WL's slot is supposedly scummy, I still think HBW's slot needs to be taken into consideration.

 

[#HBC | J]

WL is a tad scummy due to his lack of true reasoning and real content in his posts when he was here. Plus his reaction to the Scary wagon holds some intel.

I won't be looking into HBW's slot based on they bore me and with Bardull posting things, I have no reason to look into them. They are a town read so until someone shows me a reason why they could be scum or Bardull posts something that makes me question him, I am fine with pretending they are just another number to the game.

I am glad someone may be seeing my train of thought of Scary/Acro, even if it is you.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Implying you could get anybody better to agree with you

 

[#HBC | J]

@ Maximum Carnage : Scary has 4 votes, make sure your vote is your next post so you can be on the lynch for your role if I remember correctly.

 

[#HBC | J]

Implying you could get anybody better to agree with you

Quit trying to instigate me. You will lose in the end.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Sure, we'll see when the game's over

What do you think of Gorf?

 

[Swiss]

if I didn't make it clear to gova on skype

/replace out

sorry lads but ive had a bit of a run in here and need to move houses sharpish

my particularly un-diplomatic stance of smacking someone about till they stop talking ****e doesn't always resonate

 

[#HBC | J]

I don't mind him. He shares a lot of the same viewpoints on null things but he doesn't have much in terms of scumhunting content.

 

[Maximum Carnage]

@ Maximum Carnage : Scary has 4 votes, make sure your vote is your next post so you can be on the lynch for your role if I remember correctly.

Or you could unvote and wait.

If someone hammers anyone without me on the lynch, they're scum and my vote will stay on them all game. Consider this strong basis for town to not hammer. Do not put someone within alpha range, we have much to discuss toDay. If you think Scary is in a corner get a full claim.

We also will be testing DSH's priestly ability today.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Is this really why scary is a good play to you? How do you feel about the slot outside of this role speculation?

Why is this the ****ing basis for lynching people like are people just saying **** play I MAY have stopped the kill when this game is crawling with possible ways to stop the NK?

You've missed something. We want the same thing, ask me post-lynch.

If this goes to term, which it should, do not let J go on a Scary townflip. @everyone

 

[#HBC | J]

*sigh*

Seriously, half the cast has almost been replaced and it's making reason. Certain slots obnoxious.

Dgames makes me sad.

 

[Maximum Carnage]

if I didn't make it clear to gova on skype

/replace out

sorry lads but ive had a bit of a run in here and need to move houses sharpish

my particularly un-diplomatic stance of smacking someone about till they stop talking ****e doesn't always resonate

You could at least tell us your NAs.


Also WTF at this game with people replacing out all the time. Get a scheduling planner or something.

 

[#HBC | J]

MC, then take my spot on the lynch.

Unvote

 

[Dabuz]

if I didn't make it clear to gova on skype

/replace out

sorry lads but ive had a bit of a run in here and need to move houses sharpish

my particularly un-diplomatic stance of smacking someone about till they stop talking ****e doesn't always resonate

You could at least tell us your NAs.


Also WTF at this game with people replacing out all the time. Get a scheduling planner or something.

This.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

If this goes to term, which it should, do not let J go on a Scary townflip. @everyone

I'd still be much more concerned about Acro.

 

[Maximum Carnage]

MC, then take my spot on the lynch.

Unvote

I'll make my decision later, when I'm ready. We aren't done here today.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I'd still be much more concerned about Acro.

I don't see it.

 

[#HBC | J]

Vote: Scary

 

[Dabuz]

Scary should probably claim next time he gets in here, or at least let us know if he has a role that makes him take x amount of votes less to lynch for DSH role testing purposes.

 

[Detective Sherlock Hound]

Vote: Scary

Take your vote off.

And no I did not talk to Joey.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Wait j I thought he was your town bro?

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Oh wait no that was hardbody. Nvm.

 

[#HBC | J]

And why should I take my vote off my own wagon?

Also there is more you need to answer but that does answer quite a bit for me.

 

[Maximum Carnage]

Down for lynching J on principle, he's being onery for no reason.

will not vote for any of J's scum reads

will vote J and all his town reads

unless he starts cooperating with town instead of being a stick in the mud


If you want to lynch Scary, J... your vote on him is pushing that in the wrong direction. We want a scum lynch and prior to that we want information. Scary is one facet of a whole picture and I'm not pigeonholing that at all. I will totally throw caution to the wind and vote for you and only you all game regardless of yours, mine, or other player's alignments. I am not bluffing.

Take your vote off, start harassing Swiss for his info that we need (or his replacement), and cool your jets.

@mod request pre-emptive deadline extension

 

[Maximum Carnage]

Is this really why scary is a good play to you? How do you feel about the slot outside of this role speculation?

Why is this the ****ing basis for lynching people like are people just saying **** play I MAY have stopped the kill when this game is crawling with possible ways to stop the NK?

It's called a solid foundation.

Lynching based off of "play" - that is, gut reads and assumptions - is a fallacy. No one, NO ONE, on DGames has a success rate even one standard deviation above the average simply based on reading posts and saying "like / dislike". I've checked in every one of my games and have looked every time I've played. No one gets it right.

Lynching based off of connections and vote history has a much higher success rate. This can, and often does, start with lynching off of gut reads and assumptions. "I think Gorf is acting scummy, and he seems to be chummy with Nabe but no one else. I find this to be odd play assuming a 3 man scum team. If they were both scum, it wouldn't make much sense to distance from ONE of their teammates but have two stick together out in the open and not be pushing a lynch together like they are. It's likely they are of other alignments." is a solid group of assumptions, but they're just assumptions. What isn't an assumption is that when you lynch Gorf and he flips Scum, you can say "I can assume Nabe is town given my prior thought process". As time goes on these connections and voting history become more pronounced as lynches get harder to put together and require more people. You notice more and more patterns and eventually you can determine "Hey, when we went to lynch Gorf it turns out that J was adamantly against it and Acrostic was publicly FOR it but never actually voted until the lynch was basically set in stone. Other players didn't do anything like this! If I had to give Gorf a scummate it would certainly be one of those two."

Lynching with confirmed information, such as Night Actions, has the highest success rate of any. It's dangerous as non-confirmed info can be perceived as confirmed, but assuming you can trust the information? It's great.

We can narrow down a group of 12 people to 4 people. That's a much smaller lynch pool. We could lynch solely in that pool and be guaranteed at least one scum. We can FORCE those people to be on lynches and thus be roleblocked by Sages so it's less likely they can use scummy abilities. We can publicly announce this and mafia says "ha HA! A scum member is not on the lynch, so we will send the NKill in from him!" and the NKill goes on successfully, but it turns out that we protected people not on the lynch and Gheb roleblocked others not on the lynch and can narrow it down to three people that weren't RBed for that Night's NKill! That's a strong incentive there to search connections between those three and the three remaining from the prior pool of four. We start to hypothesize and eventually find a scum member and can move on from there.

Lynching with confirmed information improves over time while lynching based off of your "intuition" doesn't improve ever, at all.

Mafia is a game about producing information. Not playing hotshot with boundless assumptions.

Although playing the hotshot can get you some interesting information.

 

[Vult Redux]

If we had reason to believe that the NKill was blocked and have evidence of a player being blocked...

of the entire playerlist is there anyone you wouldn't want to lynch on that metric when it is placed side-by-side with their play?

no.

Why is this the ****ing basis for lynching people like are people just saying **** play I MAY have stopped the kill when this game is crawling with possible ways to stop the NK?

there are play reasons and mechanics reasons.

see mc's post (1678) for my pov.

however note that I am apprehensive about using this evidence given that multiple players could feasibly have submitted the kill, so I'm voting him solely for play.

 

[Vult Redux]

unvote

not because I changed my mind but for caution because I want to make sure the NAs are sorted out before continuing the wagon.