Alright so here's the rundown on what I think of the playerlist
1. HBW
Man **** Marshy. No but seriously this slot is one I want to like but am having trouble doing it with. I can't read Marshy's side just wanting me dead very well, but he has a few reasonable motivations to want that to happen. Not ones I'd agree with knowing what I was all thinking (or in some cases not thinking) etc., but from the outside in they aren't awful reasons to be wanting me gone D1 (talking about roles too much, hates what I tried to confirm with Nabe, pretty sure wasn't a fan of pushing back on Town PR etc.)
That said, with the advent of Sang the slot has gotten a little more dynamic. I don't know why they were giving Scary the noobtown pass and not me, but then I can't really peg why J is doing the reverse either. I don't mind the switch to Nabe for obvious reasons even if it felt kind of sudden. Overall I'm hoping Sang gets even more caught up, because most of the things he asked me when we interacted were things that already had answers or were misunderstood entirely, but the basis of which seemed firm enough. Slight town lean, would be easy to swing back.
2. Raziek
Lol null
3. Massive Carnage
For all the effort that the slot has put forth I want to call this slot town. Obviously this slot is going to put in effort as either alignment though so that's not really fair. Instead what I'm hoping I'm right about is the intent to dig through everyone being more town than scum. I can't think of a slot they haven't at least tried to talk to. Only thing I really have to hesitate on here is how they've seemed equally committed to every lynch they've been on despite having some stances, like they'd be more than happy for any of them, as well as dubbing Me vs Town PR TvT but leaving Me vs. Scary up in the air long enough to have jumped on me for a minute (which I don't understand the intent of since they immediately pushed for Nabe); but realistically it's for reads and soldier johns are legit. Speculative town lean (for now).
4. WashedLaundry
... Ok this list needs to stop giving me all the slots I'm torn on right away. I liked what he was posting early game (but I usually do), and his J read at least seemed kind of based on things but at the same time I don't really agree with it and it was pretty meta-reachy fmpov. I gotta be honest I've largely been just letting everything Washed does slide and focusing on other slots. I don't remember if he stated Nabe dislike before yesterday, but I can only assume he has at least a reasonable amount of it if he switched wagons, and there was that whole tirade he made that I misinterpreted as being at me so idk. Null.
5. Detective Sherlock Hound (Joey/Red Ruy)
Your slot is... ok, but it feels like one of the reads I've developed the least. I'm relying a lot on gut and reaction to both my actions and the Town PR wagon here and the willingness of Joey to admit mistaken points instead of pushing them. You've been pretty inactive for the last irl day or two tbh, but before that everything seemed okay; and while I'd love to say you'd know how to recognize me being me back during Me vs. Town PR that's really no guarantee of anything when Joey is involved. Null leaning town.
6. J
Okay this one is tricky as hell. I want to love this guy for supporting me and agreeing on Me vs Town PR TvT and going in on Scary, but being realistic: he hasn't really followed through all that hard. You could argue that everything he's done is getting him brownie points on my flip from a scum perspective, and he was noncommittal at various points of the game (the initial part of Me vs Town PR). But being realistic here I don't see a scum doing this exact sequence of events wrt my slot. I mean: he came in and said I was definitely town and he'd block my lynch against Marshy, and pointed out all this stuff on Scary: and then today he came in and just said literally "**** it I'm tired". Maybe I'm not giving it enough thought, but that seems like the biggest waste of time if he was doing this as scum since it would paint a "what the hell was that even" target on his back for making a big fuss and not showing up. Town, but if he keeps up being distant from all but select issues I'd start to reconsider.
7. Gorf
Okay so Gorf kind of gets a special read. The elephant in the room here is that I don't think anyone really wants to even deal with the wifom of having a unique role to put him as a legitimate candidate. But all that aside, EVEN though he pisses me off, he's been doing some work when he could reasonably chill and no one would complain too hard. The sheer amount of effort he has put into non-constructive mudslinging kind of worries me though. Very slight town lean
8. Dabuz
Okay Dabuz is mixed in that he's not the greatest ever at pursuing things, but then again neither am I. There's been some detraction as of late on that point, but I feel like it's largely something that's okay. I was a little worried with how he was sliding his doublevote around, but there are legit reasons to be doing that in this game and it's seemed to help out a number of reads so far. It's hard to describe this because I don't want to take forever with this summary by getting a bunch of quotes involved when I haven't bothered to use any before now; but what he does he seems intent on. Some of his points are just lame though... like saying he got Vult to say he had 8 years experience when it really had nothing to do with him and wouldn't have even been a question if he hadn't asked. Gut town lean? It's kind of a toss up, but I'd err on town for now.
9. LBScary59
Scary I feel like we could definitely lose. He's been a non-factor for the vast majority of the game, and while I'd love to give him "you ****ed up like I did" credit I don't feel like the intent is really there. He coasted in during early game, muddled about in the middle, and at the end he was pretty much unraveled when he started talking in such a way where it was clear he was thinking of his posts from a standpoint where he was making allusions to the concept of having reads to placate people rather than further scum hunting (see; the J post we all voted him for). Wrap this up with the time he just flat stated he saved his vote for a bad time (voting me literally because he thought I was wrong about a mechanic) because he felt afraid people would come down on him and there's not a lot of recourse. Scum
10. Town PR (Glyph/Ranmaru)
I kind of ****ed up my early chances of reading them on this one trying to get them to post content in a really awkward way, but eventually I think the effort showed through in what they had been trying for despite the misunderstandings. Everything they've been doing since then (though absent for awhile about a day ago) has been reasonable. Their push on Scary seems legit and I don't really fault them for early game: so Town PR is fittingly a Town read.
12. Gheb_01
Okay I won't lie that really early gambit obliterated pretty much any chance of normal read on Gheb, but honestly I don't think my read on him would have been very strong regardless. He's been mostly obstinate, which isn't unexpected, but I don't really know what he's pushing for at any given moment, and that makes me not want to trust him. He comments from time to time, and sometimes I can see where he's coming from, but often that comment will be almost too curt. The moment that comes to mind is when he said he thought the Scary wagon was a ****ty one. I could see where he'd might come to that remark from based on the likes of Me/Nabe/Dabuz being all on it already, but without really arguing for any one side anyways. I'm 100% sure he's currently voting someone but the fact I don't know who it is off the top of my head means he isn't doing it as well as possible. Null leaning scum
13. Nabe
What can we even say about Nabe really. We know he's here, he responds to things put forth when they irritate him, but he hasn't done a whole ton else. He apparently just does this, and I saw him do this as town in Tranq (though he was a replacement), but he apparently also does this as scum and it'd suit the play just fine. Ultimately it comes to the fact that we really could be getting things from him and he's choosing not to while still making wagons happen with a doublevote. I'm not in a position to bargain and PoE means I really have no qualms with him being the play today if he's going to make his alignment a coin flip. Some people say if he's town he'll improve if given time, but I really don't agree from what I've seen in the past. Scum lean
14. Vult Redux
Vult I feel wary of. He hasn't done anything evil, but he also hasn't done anything super constructively town. He's done things no one else is doing like put votes on what was at the time Nameless and then Carnage, but what else really is there? He's down to body Nabe and I don't really have any legit reason to not be okay with that, but he's still kind of a question mark. Null, but if anyone is going to be the "yeah okay, I'm not surprised but I also sort of didn't see it coming" mafia flip it'd probably be this slot based on the game so far.
All that said, I feel like any of the power players could be reasonably working together here to guide whichever of these lynches they choose under malign pretenses and it's really going to come down to flips as it always does. If the nightmare scenario comes and all 3 of me, Nabe, and Scary flip town, well first off I apologize, and second I'd hope the likes of HBW, Laundry, and Gorf are all getting second looks about two flips in.
