I'm starting to think again that balance patches might be necessary. If you haven't seen the new update yet... check it out.
Sakurai seems to try to implement as many unique mechanisms into the game as he possibly can. With so many COMPLETELY different styles, something is bound to end up completely unusable or completely broken on the professional level.
It looks like we're looking at a whole variety of Zelda/Sheiks and Icies.
I agree.
And I still don't see why people believe that rock-solid, cold-hard DATA wouldn't be usable here.
Let's review some common concerns:
"Data will be inaccurate because people will always play their favorite characters."
Not true, and I'll cite Mario Strikers as an example, specifically with the Hammer Bros. who have an awesome deke (defensive move) and a charge shot which is a guaranteed goal.
Does anyone honestly think that players chose to use the Hammer Bros. because they like them as a character, or because their charge shot is awesome? Online games are extremely competitive, and I'm willing to bet that after 2-3 matches where a player was beaten on the merit of the Hammer Bros. alone, they probably started adding one to their roster themselves.
The same is true with SSBM. How many players probably started playing with Bowser, Ness, Yoshi, etc., then got their a$$es handed to them enough times by a higher-tiered character that they decided to switch to that character?
"Data will be inaccurate because people won't take online play seriously and won't play as the best known characters."
Umm, no. Just no.
Aside from the fact that years of online PC gaming have proven this to be 100% incorrect, you can see the same trend in MP: Hunters and Mario Strikers where players will use the characters requiring the lowest amount of skill with the highest win return possible.
People love to win and hate to lose. This is irrefutable. Suggesting that the same will not be true for online SSBB is ridiculous.
For this reason, the tournament data of Melee will be outclassed by the online data of Brawl.
Tournament data shows the best possible characters because people will do everything they can to win. Online will be the EXACT same story, except that it will be happening all the time instead of during tournaments which don't happen nearly as often so tier data acquisition will be far more rapid than it is with tournaments.
"Online match data won't allow Sakurai to determine anything about the game or its balance."
Au contraire. Data will allow Sakurai and Sora to know EVERYTHING about how the game is balanced because, unlike whiny players, statistics don't lie in an attempt to get their main buffed.
If the game is balanced, and I mean TRULY balanced, then statistics will show that every character's win/loss and use % numbers will be within +/-10% of each other.
After a year of data, I have NO doubt that it will be easy to see which characters are pulling ahead of the pack and which ones are falling horribly behind.
Again, NO amount of players trying to play as their favorite character will offset this data. Do you think Marth was anyone's favorite character? He's from Fire Emblem 1 which cannot even be played in english. How could ANY english speaker possibly favor him for any reason other than his tier placement?
Online games will be played to win, and they'll probably be 1v1 matches to boot, meaning that Sakurai will be able to see right away how characters match up against each other.
When you have a recorded 1,000,000 fights between two specific characters, say Bowser vs. Ike, and Ike wins 75% of those fights to Bowser's 25%, then you quite clearly know that something is amiss with Bowser.
The law of averages dictates that, if these are two balanced characters, then their win/loss percentages should be within 5% of each other. Any strong deviation in favor of one character or another indicates that there is a problem.
Now, you're probably saying, "What if Ike just pwns Bowser?" Fair enough, but what if Ike's win/loss ratio with every other character is just as lopsided? Or what if Bowser is getting his arse kicked with a similar average win ratio of 25%?
Then Sakurai has some useful data. If characters are balanced, then their win/loss ratios will be balanced. If they are not functioning correctly, then it can one again be seen in their win/loss ratios and corrected accordingly through online patches.