Do Spirits Deconfirm? Update: Min Min = Spirits Don't Deconfirm Anymore

[fogbadge]

When I say 'Nintendo' I'm including Sakurai in the equation, since he's affiliated with them.

right i get ya.

 

[Giga Kaiju]

Just passing by to the thread to say that if Min-Min makes it to the roster or Spring-Man and/or Ribbon Girl make it, it will break multiple rules. If it's the first, "spirits rule" will be broken (base game that is), and if it's the latter, then "spirits rule", "Assist Trophy rule", "same game Assist Trophy & Mii Costume rule" & "new game after/during 2017 rule"...

Either way, the rule for spirits WILL be broken, yes or yes.

.

 

[Proceleon]

Just passing by to the thread to say that if Min-Min makes it to the roster or Spring-Man and/or Ribbon Girl make it, it will break multiple rules. If it's the first, "spirits rule" will be broken (base game that is), and if it's the latter, then "spirits rule", "Assist Trophy rule", "same game Assist Trophy & Mii Costume rule" & "new game after/during 2017 rule"...

Either way, the rule for spirits WILL be broken, yes or yes.

.

Yes, and if any of the 10 unused characters makes it in, then the opposite is true and the rules are here to stay.

 

[fogbadge]

Yes, and if any of the 10 unused characters makes it in, then the opposite is true and the rules are here to stay.

i feel i should warn you people of the opposite opinion will not see it that way, the old just casue it hasnt happened yet doesnt mean cant happen

 

[Proceleon]

i feel i should warn you people of the opposite opinion will not see it that way, the old just casue it hasnt happened yet doesnt mean cant happen

And yet those same people never stop to think why it hasn't happened yet. Bare in mind people have been saying "maybe we'll get [insert Trophy/Assist Trophy here] promoted" for as long as DLC has been a thing and they've always, ALWAYS been wrong.
Just cause it hasn't happened yet equally doesn't mean it will happen either.

 

[NintenRob]

i feel i should warn you people of the opposite opinion will not see it that way, the old just casue it hasnt happened yet doesnt mean cant happen

While I only speak for myself, I actually would concede that if we get someone who isn't a spirit already, I'd probably start thinking all spirits deconfirmed. At least for the most part. I'd definitely consider Assist Trophies 100% done if it's not Spring Man.


Max Brass and maybe Dr Coyle are the only characters I could see being second in line to Spring Man besides those who are already Spirits. But I still think it should be Min Min or Ribbon Girl if only Spring Man is off the table. So I'd probably still say spirits deconfirm, but would understand those who think otherwise.



This reveal is the deciding factor for me

 

[fogbadge]

And yet those same people never stop to think why it hasn't happened yet. Bare in mind people have been saying "maybe we'll get [insert Trophy/Assist Trophy here] promoted" for as long as DLC has been a thing and they've always, ALWAYS been wrong.
Just cause it hasn't happened yet equally doesn't mean it will happen either.

yes but theres been so many other things people said would never happen with smash that then did happen, there may not be a reason why it doesnt happen at all

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Important thing is at least one rule will be broken, one way or another.

1. Anyone but Spring Man: That the face of a Fighting game is always the playable character
2. Spring Man: That Assist Trophies can't become playable in the same game they debuted
3. Spring Man and Ribbon Girl: That a base game mii costume rules out DLC fighters
4. Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min, Twintelle and Ninjara: That base game spirits rule out DLC.

The only realistic ones who don't fit into the latter three IMO are the Big Boss Max Brass, the true Final Boss Dr. Coyle and the left field choices of Helix and Biff. I hecka want Lola Pop but I can separate what I want from what I think is likely.

 

[fogbadge]

I can separate what I want from what I think is likely.

i rarely find them to be the same myself

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

Nemesis could still happen

Yes please!

 

[Proceleon]

I can separate what I want from what I think is likely.

You're a rare breed of Smash Fan indeed, especially in these trying times.

 

[Powerman293]

You're a rare breed of Smash Fan indeed, especially in these trying times.

I don't even try to think about which characters are likely. Because Nintendo loves throwing curveballs. So while I don't expect my dream picks, expecting "obvious" picks isn't a good strategy either.

 

[Trevenant]

I’m fairly confident the ARMS rep is going to at least include Springman.

And the entire point of people thinking spirits deconfirm isn’t because ‘they are already represented’ it’s because they think it signifies the idea that they wouldn’t have put them in there if they wanted them playable. Nothing says they can’t change their mind as it would have been a decision they made a long time prior. I think it’s probably just fans applying the rules they make up to Nintendo.

Just because fans say ‘assists are a no go’ doesn’t mean Nintendo will go the same. In fact it’s very close minded if they were to do that. I’d be very surprised if that were to be the case though tbh just brought this up as I felt the need to.

 

[Perkilator]

They wouldn't have even done a Spirit Event if there was going to be a Sword and Shield DLC character added, like how there was no Three Houses Spirit Event. A Gen 8 Pokemon is simply not possible unless Sakurai decides to have a 3rd Fighter Pass, which is confirmed to not be happening.

They still only used 8 Pokémon out of Galar’s 86, which they can then reuse for a DLC Spirit Board. Out of the 78 who weren’t used as Spirits, there’s plenty of Pokémon who could be playable.

 

[Trevenant]

They still only used 8 Pokémon out of Galar’s 86, which they can then reuse for a DLC Spirit Board. Out of the 78 who weren’t used as Spirits, there’s plenty of Pokémon who could be playable.

To be honest the argument could be made that they could just separate the starter spirits and the legendaries and make them separate spirits as they are actually squashed together in the event. Sure it’d be lame but it’d be really simple

 

[Proceleon]

I’m fairly confident the ARMS rep is going to at least include Springman.

And the entire point of people thinking spirits deconfirm isn’t because ‘they are already represented’ it’s because they think it signifies the idea that they wouldn’t have put them in there if they wanted them playable. Nothing says they can’t change their mind as it would have been a decision they made a long time prior. I think it’s probably just fans applying the rules they make up to Nintendo.

Just because fans say ‘assists are a no go’ doesn’t mean Nintendo will go the same. In fact it’s very close minded if they were to do that. I’d be very surprised if that were to be the case though tbh just brought this up as I felt the need to.

Actually, the whole point of speculation is to figure out where Sakurai's team have drawn the line. They obviously have SOME standards, every dev team does, so it's speculators that take it upon themselves to figure out what those are. The rules exists as an informed guide as to where the line is, and if anything comes along to change where the line is, then we'll be more informed on how the team's standards have changed and the rules will change accordingly. That's how deduction works.

 

[Trevenant]

Actually, the whole point of speculation is to figure out where Sakurai's team have drawn the line. They obviously have SOME standards, every dev team does, so it's speculators that take it upon themselves to figure out what those are. The rules exists as an informed guide as to where the line is, and if anything comes along to change where the line is, then we'll be more informed on how the team's standards have changed and the rules will change accordingly. That's how deduction works.

Sure but I don’t see why they would be the standards they decide to draw the line upon. We are probably going to have to wait till June to see if they do have those as standards which again, would really surprise me.

 

[Proceleon]

Sure but I don’t see why they would be the standards they decide to draw the line upon. We are probably going to have to wait till June to see if they do have those as standards which again, would really surprise me.

Exactly. Things are in question right now, but the most we can do is wait while not letting the hype and fan theory go to our heads.
Unfortunately that last part is a lot harder, especially for SmashTubers who basically run on blowing things like this up...

 

[RileyXY1]

They still only used 8 Pokémon out of Galar’s 86, which they can then reuse for a DLC Spirit Board. Out of the 78 who weren’t used as Spirits, there’s plenty of Pokémon who could be playable.

It wouldn't make sense to make a Spirit Board for Sword and Shield considering that they already put Spirits from it in a Spirit Event. If a Gen 8 Pokemon was coming then they wouldn't have done a Spirit Event in the first place like how there was no Fire Emblem Three Houses Spirit Event because Byleth became playable.

 

[Proceleon]

It wouldn't make sense to make a Spirit Board for Sword and Shield considering that they already put Spirits from it in a Spirit Event. If a Gen 8 Pokemon was coming then they wouldn't have done a Spirit Event in the first place like how there was no Fire Emblem Three Houses Spirit Event because Byleth became playable.

The only way I see new Pokemon Spirits being in is if they count the base SWSH game and IOA&CT as separate things.

 

[RileyXY1]

The only way I see new Pokemon Spirits being in is if they count the base SWSH game and IOA&CT as separate things.

I don't that they will count DLC separately from the base game. I'll change my mind about Gen 8 if I get proof that they can add pre-existing Spirits to a DLC Fighter's Spirit Board.

 

[Emelie]

I still think they deconfirm characters for the most part. This Arms character might just be an exception because they wanted to include more characters from modern video games and advertise stuff.

I hope that I'm wrong though. After all they didn't initially plan on releasing a second fighter pass so the "rules" might have changed.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I still think they deconfirm characters for the most part. This Arms character might just be an exception because they wanted to include more characters from modern video games and advertise stuff.

I hope that I'm wrong though. After all they didn't initially plan on releasing a second fighter pass so the "rules" might have changed.

There's no "most part". Either they do or they don't basically. It doesn't mean someone could be likely, but a png isn't really a reason why. It'd be a coincidence.

If an ARMS Fighter, any that are a Spirit, shows up, that means Spirits don't auto disconfirm by any means. Context still applies. It makes sense for base game spirits to affect the first set of DLC, as they were decided around a similar timeframe. Likewise, DLC spirits are the same way with Pass 2. That's context instead of a blanket statement. Besides that, it makes it clear that "they didn't have plans for it at the time" means just that. They thought of something neat.

Obviously we could get no more Spirit promotions beyond that being a possibility. But that'd be because Nintendo simply had other ideas, not some notion an old picture magically affected them when it means so little. Spring Man also would be an even bigger deal, as it shows old ideas can get revived under the right circumstances. Besides, it's an all new game and isn't like Smash 4's DLC, the only other time where a situation could come up. So it makes sense, with it already having a different business model(including Nintendo choosing all the DLC Characters as stated, not Sakurai), that these small roles aren't relevant to Nintendo. They might be for some roles in Sakurai's case, and that's fair. He has his own personal views. But it's not his views, it's Nintendo's, and they clearly don't share the same one anyway. If Spirits were off the table, why are they shown as a possibility for an ARMS fighter? There's already a clear statement made that they weren't considered much, if at all, for this.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

There's only three non-spirit ARMs characters I can see it being, one of them being Helix for being the one who take the stretching doctrine to extremes and the DLC bosses Max Brass and Dr. Coyle.

 

[Proceleon]

There's only three non-spirit ARMs characters I can see it being, one of them being Helix for being the one who take the stretching doctrine to extremes and the DLC bosses Max Brass and Dr. Coyle.

Helix certainly fits the Smash feel. You could make a good moveset out of just his stretchiness alone, he certainly moves like he's in Smash, with the squish and the flip and the wiggly goodness. Helix is wiggles.
Dr. Coyle does have a double ad bonus, because if she does get in, she's promoting both the game AND the DLC.

 

[Ann Takamaki]

No, they do not de-confirm characters, as shown in the attached pic, Daisy has a spirit.

Sakurai said pretty much anyone is possible for DLC. There were over 700 trophies in the last game, if there's even half the amount of spirits in Ultimate then they would be stupid to de-confirm literally hundreds of characters for no reason by making them spirits. Some of the spirits shown obviously are spirits because they couldn't be a playable character, like the legendary bird trio of Articuno, Zapdos, and Moltres, but I'm sure that outside of that everyone is fine and being a spirit neither hurts nor helps their chances of being a character. In fact, being a spirit might help, it shows that you're on the dev team's radar (K. Rool and Chrom Mii costumes in the last game).

Okay, Sir? That Daisy spirit is a fighter spirit. You can also get it from Classic Mode.

 

[Perkilator]

Okay, Sir? That Daisy spirit is a fighter spirit. You can also get it from Classic Mode. Sakurai himself has stated multiple times that existing Spirits, whether they be Primary or Secondary, will NOT become fighters.

Okay:

1. He never stated that. If he did, there would be official word on it.
2. That screenshot was back from before Smash Ultimate released; like, 2 days after Spirits were announced. Not much of us knew what Fighter Spirits even where, much less that you got them from Classic

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Okay, Sir? That Daisy spirit is a fighter spirit. You can also get it from Classic Mode. Sakurai himself has stated multiple times that existing Spirits, whether they be Primary or Secondary, will NOT become fighters.

...Since when?

I mean, yes, the Daisy point is fair, since it doesn't mean anything when she's a Fighter Spirit. She's proof of nothing.

But he's never stated that. What he has said is that Fighter Spirits cannot be equipped, and that's... it.

 

[Ann Takamaki]

...Since when?

I mean, yes, the Daisy point is fair, since it doesn't mean anything when she's a Fighter Spirit. She's proof of nothing.

But he's never stated that. What he has said is that Fighter Spirits cannot be equipped, and that's... it.

Okay, the whole thing about Sakurai was my bad. My friend told me about a post on Twitter, and I didn't know who to believe. I'm sorry.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Okay, the whole thing about Sakurai was my bad. My friend told me about a post on Twitter, and I didn't know who to believe. I'm sorry.

No worries. There's a lot of articles you can look up too.

It's easy to get told misinformation. I've mistakenly informed people on stuff too, including games I'm supposed to be an expert on. -_-

 

[Ann Takamaki]

No worries. There's a lot of articles you can look up too.

It's easy to get told misinformation. I've mistakenly informed people on stuff too, including games I'm supposed to be an expert on. -_-

Thank you for understanding! I edited my post btw.

 

[3DSNinja]

honestly tho, the fact that Luma is a spirit kinda busts the spirits deconfirm argument for me personally.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

honestly tho, the fact that Luma is a spirit kinda busts the spirits deconfirm argument for me personally.

The fact that Kirby is even in a spirit battle in WoL killed the argument for me too. Like, uh, what lore? The one that they didn't care about and break anyway?

But that too. Though it is funny that the only other Ganondorf spirit is his TP form, and that's just from the previous game anyway. It's kind of funny that. Whereas the other Link and Zelda Spirits are not TP-based either. But to be fair, that's one awesome version of Ganondorf(as much as he somewhat ruins the plot overall), anyway.

Thank you for understanding! I edited my post btw.

No problem!

 

[Ann Takamaki]

honestly tho, the fact that Luma is a spirit kinda busts the spirits deconfirm argument for me personally.

I like your profile picture. Persona fans rise up.

 

[Ben Holt]

Important thing is at least one rule will be broken, one way or another.

1. Anyone but Spring Man: That the face of a Fighting game is always the playable character
2. Spring Man: That Assist Trophies can't become playable in the same game they debuted
3. Spring Man and Ribbon Girl: That a base game mii costume rules out DLC fighters
4. Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min, Twintelle and Ninjara: That base game spirits rule out DLC.

The only realistic ones who don't fit into the latter three IMO are the Big Boss Max Brass, the true Final Boss Dr. Coyle and the left field choices of Helix and Biff. I hecka want Lola Pop but I can separate what I want from what I think is likely.

That first one isn't a fan rule so much as it's a very consistent trend.
Let's take a look at the first characters from each series introduced into Smash and how consistently it's the main character:

✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
? (Arguable between Pikachu, the mascot, and Red, the protagonist)
✓ (Most recognizable game in the series is Earthbound AKA Mother 2, as that was the only game in series released worldwide)
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
? (Is this even a series? Less so even than Game & Watch, but I'll give R.O.B. the benefit of the doubt.)
? (Like Pikachu and Red, you could argue the Tom Nook or Isabelle is the mascot of Animal Crossing, but Villager is the undisputed protagonist.)
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓ (At first I put a question mark, as technically the player is the protagonist of Duck Hunt whereas the dog is in the mascot boat with Pikachu, but then I remembered Palutena's Guidance saying that Duck Hunt is actually a trio with the shooter acting as the reticle in Duck Hunt's attacks, so that convinced me that Duck Hunt [Trio] is indeed the definitive main character.)
✓
✓ (For a brief moment, I thought about putting a question mark, but let's be honest. Cloud is by far and away the most recognizable Final Fantasy character. Moreso than even Chokobo, so he's effectively both a protagonist AND a mascot.)
✓
✓
? (Probably the MOST ambiguous one. In Japan, Richter may be the favorite, but the most popular character class in Castlevania is the Belmonts, and worldwide, Simon is the favorite Belmont. Plus, he's starred in multiple Castlevania titles whereas others starred in only one.)
? (Persona is the game series I have the least experience with when it comes to playable Smash fighters. As such, I bend the knee on this one and admit that I am unqualified to judge Joker's standing in the Persona series.)
?? (Double question marks here because there are two reasons why Hero is ambiguously the main character of the Dragon Quest series. Slime is the mascot like Pikachu, and personally, I recognized Slime before I recognized Eleven, Erdrick, Solo, and Eight individually. But this character is labeled as "Hero", and given that broad title, then this character is definitely the main protagonist of the Dragon Quest series.
BUT, here's my reason for the second question mark. Eleven is the default character. He is objectively not as iconic as Erdrick, who is an alt, but still not displayed center stage. To make the relevant analogy to this thread, that would be like Spring Man being an Alt for another ARMS character that takes center stage. As strange as that sounds, Hero sets the precedent. However, Eleven starred in the most recent Dragon Quest game whereas Spring Man is the star of the ONLY ARMS game so far. So perhaps this isn't a true precedent.)
✓
✓ (Considered for question mark, but Terry is clearly labeled as a Fatal Fury character, where he is unquestionably the main character. But had he been labeled as a King of Fighter's rep, then he would be a solid question mark as Kyo is marketed as that franchise's main character.)

So, given the track record, I see Spring Man as 85% likely. The ONLY reason I don't say 99-100% is because of the Assist Trophy.

 

[3DSNinja]

Joker isn't that definitive.

He's big sure, but honestly it's kinda shared between him, Minato, and Yu

 

[Ben Holt]

Joker isn't that definitive.

He's big sure, but honestly it's kinda shared between him, Minato, and Yu

The Fourth Hokage is not a video game character.

 

[3DSNinja]

The hell you talking about?

Minato is the Persona 3 Protag, and Yu is the Persona 4 Protag?

 

[Perkilator]

The Fourth Hokage is not a video game character.

…He legit meant Minato from Persona 3.

 

[Ben Holt]

The hell you talking about?

Minato is the Persona 3 Protag, and Yu is the Persona 4 Protag?

…He legit meant Minato from Persona 3.