Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[NonSpecificGuy]

The main reasons I championed Elma as our next Xeno representative are she’d be our first dark skinned character that isn’t an alt, she’d be our first dual wielding character both knives and guns, she’d bring in a completely different feel and atmosphere from Xenoblade 1 & 2, and last but not least she’d bring in Xenoblade X Music.

I still think some of Xeno’s best music comes from X the world themes are either super epic, incredibly catchy, or completely unique sounding all around. It’s just a DAMN shame we’ll likely not get any X music this game. That’s without even mentioning us missing out on Primordia, New L.A., and/or Mira as a brand new atmospheric take disjointed from the familiarity of the other two Xenoblade games.

Spoiler: For your listening pleasure

 

[Shroob]

Here's a thought.


With Directs presumably back, I wonder what that means for June. Not necessarily E3, but the thought of two reveals in June.


With Sakurai presents, we got used to characters being revealed closer to their release date, but now with Pyra/Mythra, we've returned to the old way, where characters are available at "X" date in the future, usually not within the same month.


With Sakurai Presents, we pretty much knew that the presentation would soley focus on one character and one character only, with the sole exception of Banjo's, which gave us like, 5 seconds of Terry, but we've already seen that E3 Directs are more than happy to drop 2 characters at once, one usually soonish, and one in the immediate future.


Since Directs are supplementing Sakurai Presentations once more, I kinda wonder if the chance for 2 in June went up. It WOULD be a fitting way to end the DLC, in the place where it all began.

 

[Will]

Since Directs are supplementing Sakurai Presentations once more, I kinda wonder if the chance for 2 in June went up. It WOULD be a fitting way to end the DLC, in the place where it all began.

Maybe, would at least give us only four months until speculation is finally finally over for good.

Until they announce Fighter's Pass 3, powered by Sakurai and an IV drip bag.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I'm aware, I'm just talking about balance issues they also have. Also, Sakurai did mention they also felt the split caused way better balance, so he does consider it important.

To be fair, Zelda/Shiek's problem was that Zelda's desing didn't work in any context, and still kinda doesn't, though it seems to be on the right track. I think if they gave her normals some more utility, they could add the option to play as the duo again without causing Zelda to stop functioning again.

EDIT: Or maybe not. Phantom is really good.

 

[Shroob]

Maybe, would at least give us only four months until speculation is finally finally over for good.

Until they announce Fighter's Pass 3, powered by Sakurai and an IV drip bag.

Mate, I love speculating as much as the next guy, but I've been on this non-stop crazy train since Smash 4, with only a small break in-between. I wanna sleep. At least we had a substantial downtime between Brawl and 4.

 

[cashregister9]

Here's a thought.


With Directs presumably back, I wonder what that means for June. Not necessarily E3, but the thought of two reveals in June.


With Sakurai presents, we got used to characters being revealed closer to their release date, but now with Pyra/Mythra, we've returned to the old way, where characters are available at "X" date in the future, usually not within the same month.


With Sakurai Presents, we pretty much knew that the presentation would soley focus on one character and one character only, with the sole exception of Banjo's, which gave us like, 5 seconds of Terry, but we've already seen that E3 Directs are more than happy to drop 2 characters at once, one usually soonish, and one in the immediate future.


Since Directs are supplementing Sakurai Presentations once more, I kinda wonder if the chance for 2 in June went up. It WOULD be a fitting way to end the DLC, in the place where it all began.

I can really only see that happening if a 3rd pass gets announced during that stream. If they shoot their shot too early Nintendo could potentially lose some money on fighter pass sales which I think Nintendo has a fondness for. and while it will gain a lot of immediate media attention, it would only last for a few days and that's it for smash.

Stranger things have happened though so

 

[Nekoo]

Might be too early or crazy to say that, but, with the landscape of Fighting Games, and how Games being services until the next installment is ready to roll is the norm.
How Nintendo for FP 1 and FP 2 literally said that it was doing the crazy heavy lifting of their digital sales.
And how Nintendo knows that well...Literally everyone wait for a Smash reveal, whenever your interested in the games or not.

I'm going to be blunt and say that, I think we might be getting a Third Fighter pass. Maybe not 6 characters. Maybe just 4. But with how Street Fighter, Mortal Kombat, FighterZ and Tekken work, I can see Nintendo trying to still be "up there" and making the train roll.

Whenever it's with Sakurai as the maestro, or just their Internal smaller team with maybe Sakurai taking a backseat and the sakurai present being switched back to a Joker Style of presentaion...Who knows.

I just feel that Nintendo might go for another ride, even more if the Fighter Pass 2 took less than the Fighter Pass 1 to develop in time, when we all thought it was going to go all the way to December 2021.

 

[Polan]

Mate, I love speculating as much as the next guy, but I've been on this non-stop crazy train since Smash 4, with only a small break in-between. I wanna sleep. At least we had a substantial downtime between Brawl and 4.

View attachment 303996

no sleep only S M A S H

 

[Mamboo07]

Can't wait for Sakurai's presentation on why he added Pyra and Mythra without Rex.

 

[Shroob]

Might be too early or crazy to say that, but, with the landscape of Fighting Games, and how Games being services until the next installment is ready to roll is the norm.
How Nintendo for FP 1 and FP 2 literally said that it was doing the crazy heavy lifting of their digital sales.
And how Nintendo knows that well...Literally everyone wait for a Smash reveal, whenever your interested in the games or not.

I'm going to be blunt and say that, I think we might be getting a Third Fighter pass. Maybe not 6 characters. Maybe just 4. But with how Street Fighter, Mortal Kombat, FighterZ and Tekken work, I can see Nintendo trying to still be "up there" and making the train roll.

Whenever it's with Sakurai as the maestro, or just their Internal smaller team with maybe Sakurai taking a backseat and the sakurai present being switched back to a Joker Style of presentaion...Who knows.

I just feel that Nintendo might go for another ride, even more if the Fighter Pass 2 took less than the Fighter Pass 1 to develop in time, when we all thought it was going to go all the way to December 2021.

I think the question is "When does the ride end"?


If the Switch is only halfway through its lifecycle, it's going to be a hot minute until the next installment, and it feels like anytime we get close to the end of a Pass, they'll be asking "Okay, but what about Pass 3, or 4, or 5, or, etc etc etc".


At least, as of now, I'd like to take Sakurai's word that "Pass 2 is it, continuous development is done when it's done."

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Might be too early or crazy to say that, but, with the landscape of Fighting Games, and how Games being services until the next installment is ready to roll is the norm.
How Nintendo for FP 1 and FP 2 literally said that it was doing the crazy heavy lifting of their digital sales.
And how Nintendo knows that well...Literally everyone wait for a Smash reveal, whenever your interested in the games or not.

I'm going to be blunt and say that, I think we might be getting a Third Fighter pass. Maybe not 6 characters. Maybe just 4. But with how Street Fighter, Mortal Kombat, FighterZ and Tekken work, I can see Nintendo trying to still be "up there" and making the train roll.

Whenever it's with Sakurai as the maestro, or just their Internal smaller team with maybe Sakurai taking a backseat and the sakurai present being switched back to a Joker Style of presentaion...Who knows.

I just feel that Nintendo might go for another ride, even more if the Fighter Pass 2 took less than the Fighter Pass 1 to develop in time, when we all thought it was going to go all the way to December 2021.

Harada himself actually came out with the question whether people still wanted Tekken X Street Fighter or not because as he put it, it doesn’t make any business sense to make a new Tekken game when Tekken 7 is still doing incredibly well. That really put things into perspective for me.

 

[cashregister9]

I think the question is "When does the ride end"?

You know damn well when the ride ends...

 

[Polan]

Might be too early or crazy to say that, but, with the landscape of Fighting Games, and how Games being services until the next installment is ready to roll is the norm.
How Nintendo for FP 1 and FP 2 literally said that it was doing the crazy heavy lifting of their digital sales.
And how Nintendo knows that well...Literally everyone wait for a Smash reveal, whenever your interested in the games or not.

I'm going to be blunt and say that, I think we might be getting a Third Fighter pass. Maybe not 6 characters. Maybe just 4. But with how Street Fighter, Mortal Kombat, FighterZ and Tekken work, I can see Nintendo trying to still be "up there" and making the train roll.

Whenever it's with Sakurai as the maestro, or just their Internal smaller team with maybe Sakurai taking a backseat and the sakurai present being switched back to a Joker Style of presentaion...Who knows.

I just feel that Nintendo might go for another ride, even more if the Fighter Pass 2 took less than the Fighter Pass 1 to develop in time, when we all thought it was going to go all the way to December 2021.

sakurai saying no is what makes me doubt that but its pretty obvious that the switch is gonna be around for a while given we got splatoon 3 launching on it. but maybe it wont be fp3 but smash ultimate deluxe or whatever with the dlc bundled in and maybe a couple of other characters in. who knows tho. depends on when nintendo plans on launching the switch 2.

 

[Nekoo]

I think the question is "When does the ride end"?


If the Switch is only halfway through its lifecycle, it's going to be a hot minute until the next installment, and it feels like anytime we get close to the end of a Pass, they'll be asking "Okay, but what about Pass 3, or 4, or 5, or, etc etc etc".


At least, as of now, I'd like to take Sakurai's word that "Pass 2 is it, continuous development is done when it's done."

That's the thing, we will reach an end for Smash. That's inevitable.
But on the other side, do Nintendo/Bandai Namco WANT to stop there, that's the big question at One Billion Dollar.

Back in November 2018,, we all thought that 5 fighters and that's it. Which, at the time was true, as Sakurai said "Five new fighters will join the fight as part of the Fighter Pass! Ah. Seems that the development will still have a tiny bit more to go."

And it seems that, whenever the deal for Steve and the FFVII content took years to happens, at the time it was true. Nothing beyond that, as multiple insiders did say that the plan for Fighter Pass 2 were all made throught E3 2019/Summer 2019 to put things in perspective.
Now, Sakurai said back then, around Byleth's release that Fighter Pass 2 is all we get.
I really think that he meant it at the time, but things change and go fast. For all we know, maybe Nintendo did sign up for another pass, or maybe Nintendo did not.

Maybe we will reach the end of Smash Ultimate already, but, with how Nintendo really pointed out in their business/investor meeting that Fighter Pass 2 did the Heavy Lifting of their digital sales. I'm wondering if perhaps they expected numbers to be MUCH lower than FP1 and didn't expect to still earn as much with the DLC, y'know?

 

[Kokiden]

This concert Leak is probably the longest you can piss in a violin and pretend it's making music with how much it's brought up when everything about this Fighter Pass has been literally Secret Defense that no leaker or even just people in the industry can get a name on who the **** the next fighters are.

As a violinist, that imagery is absolutely horrifying.

 

[SpecterFlower]

That's the thing, we will reach an end for Smash. That's inevitable.
But on the other side, do Nintendo/Bandai Namco WANT to stop there, that's the big question at One Billion Dollar.

Back in November 2018,, we all thought that 5 fighters and that's it. Which, at the time was true, as Sakurai said "Five new fighters will join the fight as part of the Fighter Pass! Ah. Seems that the development will still have a tiny bit more to go."

And it seems that, whenever the deal for Steve and the FFVII content took years to happens, at the time it was true. Nothing beyond that, as multiple insiders did say that the plan for Fighter Pass 2 were all made throught E3 2019/Summer 2019 to put things in perspective.
Now, Sakurai said back then, around Byleth's release that Fighter Pass 2 is all we get.
I really think that he meant it at the time, but things change and go fast. For all we know, maybe Nintendo did sign up for another pass, or maybe Nintendo did not.

Maybe we will reach the end of Smash Ultimate already, but, with how Nintendo really pointed out in their business/investor meeting that Fighter Pass 2 did the Heavy Lifting of their digital sales. I'm wondering if perhaps they expected numbers to be MUCH lower than FP1 and didn't expect to still earn as much with the DLC, y'know?

Funnily enough I think all the DLC characters (except for stev) probably outsold their debut game.

As a violinist, that imagery is absolutely horrifying.

Even water is scary, i've already had one bad encounter with a liquid, i don't need another one lol.

 

[Shroob]

Funnily enough I think all the DLC characters (except for stev) probably outsold their debut game.


Even water is scary, i've already had one bad encounter with a liquid, i don't need another one lol.

Ultimate's official sales records are like, 20 million copies iirc.

I'd imagine that there's a fairly sizeable portion of the playerbase who either bought the game and play it super casually to the point that they don't care about DLC(kids), or they stopped playing for one reason or another.


What I mean to say is, I highly doubt FP Sephiroth outdid FF7 in terms of sales.

 

[Nekoo]

Funnily enough I think all the DLC characters (except for stev) probably outsold their debut game.

You're right, I forgot that Final Fantasy VII is an indie game.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

To be fair, Zelda/Shiek's problem was that Zelda's desing didn't work in any context, and still kinda doesn't, though it seems to be on the right track. I think if they gave her normals some more utility, they could add the option to play as the duo again without causing Zelda to stop functioning again.

EDIT: Or maybe not. Phantom is really good.

Zelda's design isn't so much the issue alone is that she wasn't upgraded enough to be decently playable till Ultimate. In 4, she sucked. In Ultimate, she's much more buffed as is. She's still not that great, but stands out well on her own. I don't think the new character design changed her model either.

Overall, a great update. Ganondorf's update returned him to Melee style somewhat, but only speed-wise. But seriously, can they please remove the Up Tilt? It's horrible. His other bits of the kit are not problematic(though Dark Fists or Teleportation for Up B would be better. First is thematically better, though arguably would make him unable to constantly get recovery time by hitting enemies for more damage, and the latter is more accurate to his character. Kind of. Actually, how often does GanonDORF teleport? Ganon, sure, a lot. But Ganondorf? He floats moreso. Then again, Dark Fists actually does represent it well, since he's doing a floating rush attack, which is at worst a move he made Zelda do in TP. That's not bad. Just increase the length of how far he goes with Dark Fists, and sweet).

 

[SpecterFlower]

What I mean to say is, I highly doubt FP Sephiroth outdid FF7 in terms of sales.

kk, let' dome some math here

FFVI Ps1 (original debut release) is at 9.8 million
SSBU is at 22.85 million

the ratio between the two is 196 : 457 so we just need to turn that into a percentage so we can see how much of Sash's playerbase would need to buy FP2 in order to achieve parity at elast in sales.

then we have 42.888402625821% as the amount of the smash bros playerbase that need's too buy it, smash will likely make it's way to 30mil so that will probably go down to les than a 33% of people need to buy Fp2 in order to achieve parity, a 33% return ratio for a major repayable game like smash would be utterly abysmal, 42% would be an okayish return rate, i can confidently say sephiroth has or will outsell the original release of FFVII on the Ps1.

unless anyway has data on how much each fighter sold.

Edit: and sephiroth definitely outsold the remake.

 

[I.D.]

And there probably won't be another ballot for that kind of fan feedback in the first place.

Do people really think there will never be a ballot or ballot like equivalent again? Remember that Smash 4 and Ultimate have essentially been the same continuous development which would explain why there was only one. After how sucessful Ultimate has been I can see Nintendo going for another round once this stage is over.

 

[Shroob]

Do people really think there will never be a ballot or ballot like equivalent again? Remember that Smash 4 and Ultimate have essentially been the same continuous development which would explain why there was only one. After how sucessful Ultimate has been I can see Nintendo going for another round once this stage is over.

Another ballot would be both amazing and terrifying.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I mean, they continued to use the ballot for DLC and it's noted "for future games". Plural. They don't need another one yet.

Maybe after the next game, sure. There's a lot of new voices to be heard and tons of characters are in due to it. Whether some as the primary reason(Ridley, King K. Rool, probably Dark Samus and Chrom, Simon and Richter, probably Daisy, Banjo & Kazooie), or it certainly is a notable thing but didn't outright matter anyway(Isabelle, maybe Hero and Sephiroth, okay maybe Terry too. Steve feels like an Isabelle case here, since he's a gaming icon and just that popular).

And then there's cases where it shows series want some love(the tons of Golden Sun content, how many 3rd parties and indies got roles...).

 

[Pillow]

Do people really think there will never be a ballot or ballot like equivalent again? Remember that Smash 4 and Ultimate have essentially been the same continuous development which would explain why there was only one. After how sucessful Ultimate has been I can see Nintendo going for another round once this stage is over.

If another ballet does happen we likely won't see its impact until years later, just like last time. It would be very interesting to see the results of a new ballet now that a lot of misconceptions about what character are eligible have been cleared up and our choices are no longer limited to things associated with Nintendo.

Harada himself actually came out with the question whether people still wanted Tekken X Street Fighter or not because as he put it, it doesn’t make any business sense to make a new Tekken game when Tekken 7 is still doing incredibly well. That really put things into perspective for me.

It probably doesn't help that SF x Tekken was so poorly received. Dope trailers though.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Zelda's design isn't so much the issue alone is that she wasn't upgraded enough to be decently playable till Ultimate. In 4, she sucked. In Ultimate, she's much more buffed as is. She's still not that great, but stands out well on her own.

I think she's mostly a product of being one of the more strange designs. It seems like her playstyle was made to hyperfocus on punishing your opponent's habits. You have to know where your opponent is going to be to get much use out of her lightning kicks or Din's Fire, and you have to know when you're opponent's going to throw a projectile to reflect it with Nayru's Love. Even the Phantom's best use in in mindgames and setups. It might have just been that they couldn't really find out how to make the moves useful while still keeping that design choice.

Overall, a great update. Ganondorf's update returned him to Melee style somewhat, but only speed-wise. But seriously, can they please remove the Up Tilt?

Yeah, unless your name was Toon Link or Sheik, you were a big winner if you were a Zelda character, and Toon Link and Sheik were in good spots before (albeit with Toon Link being the most boring of the Links). Also yes. Get rid of Volcano Kick. You already have Warlock Punch. You don't need it.

though Dark Fists or Teleportation for Up B would be better.

Dark Fists? Was that one of the Custom Specials for Dark Dive?

 

[I.D.]

View attachment 303994

Ew, the actual XC2 Shulk. The model itself looked pretty jank and out of place compared to Pyra's model, wonder why they didn't use this monstrosity or even the XC1DE model.

That Shulk was designed by Kunihiko Tanaka, character designer for Xenogears, Xenosaga 1, Xenoblade X (and therefore, Elma) and all of Xenoblade 2's crossover characters (minus T-elos). I won't ask you to like him but at least try to be a little bit respectful for the work of a man who has been literally supporting Monolith from its humble beginnings.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I think she's mostly a product of being one of the more strange designs. It seems like her playstyle was made to hyperfocus on punishing your opponent's habits. You have to know where your opponent is going to be to get much use out of her lightning kicks or Din's Fire, and you have to know when you're opponent's going to throw a projectile to reflect it with Nayru's Love. Even the Phantom's best use in in mindgames and setups. It might have just been that they couldn't really find out how to make the moves useful while still keeping that design choice.

Pretty much. She's so far off as an odd spellcaster. It's still funy

Yeah, unless your name was Toon Link or Sheik, you were a big winner if you were a Zelda character, and Toon Link and Sheik were in good spots before (albeit with Toon Link being the most boring of the Links). Also yes. Get rid of Volcano Kick. You already have Warlock Punch. You don't need it.

Funny thing is Volcano Kick has more power to it, but it's just... so bad. Warlock Punch has more than enough super armor that it can actually hit. Weaker, sure, but better balanced.

I do get where people have the idea of making Warlock Punch into Wizard's Foot, with a Ground Pound change(maybe) in the air. It's more accurate. But it feels like trying to give him a projectile is difficult. The energy ball is one thing, since just having it stun serves his gameplay much better. DMV I've explained many issues with before, so I won't go into it much again. Funnily enough before Brawl, a Blue Stalfos uses it. In the same games, Twinrova uses it(she probably taught him the move, which makes sense). The move also wasn't named till the Cubus Sisters in the DS games. Does that mean it wasn't always the name? I dunno. That's just onscreen. It might've been Energy Ball either way. Electric Ball maybe for the other move.

What I'd like to see is you able to use Electric Ball(his other move he does bring back for TP) by holding down A, as his Thunder Punch charging it makes sense. It's a slower version.

So assuming Warlock Punch and Wizard's Foot is unchanged, and Dark Fists is the new Up B, what would be a good Up Tilt?

Dark Fists? Was that one of the Custom Specials for Dark Dive?

Yep!

 

[Shroob]

I know I joked about it earlier but

I think Pyra may be a bit on the heavier side in terms of weight in Smash

 

[cosmicB]

kk, let' dome some math here

FFVI Ps1 (original debut release) is at 9.8 million
SSBU is at 22.85 million

the ratio between the two is 196 : 457 so we just need to turn that into a percentage so we can see how much of Sash's playerbase would need to buy FP2 in order to achieve parity at elast in sales.

then we have 42.888402625821% as the amount of the smash bros playerbase that need's too buy it, smash will likely make it's way to 30mil so that will probably go down to les than a 33% of people need to buy Fp2 in order to achieve parity, a 33% return ratio for a major repayable game like smash would be utterly abysmal, 42% would be an okayish return rate, i can confidently say sephiroth has or will outsell the original release of FFVII on the Ps1.

unless anyway has data on how much each fighter sold.

Edit: and sephiroth definitely outsold the remake.

You're making a lot of assumptions here about data we don't have access to. Just thinking about it logically, 42% of the userbase getting DLC is absurdly high. I would bet it's no higher than 20%, maybe even 10%.

Smash isn't a normal fighting game. Maybe 5% keep up with the competitive scene (based on viewership numbers for big events) which is where the bulk of DLC sales are going to come from. The majority of the userbase treats Smash like a fun little party game that has everything it needs right out of the box.

If Nintendo was getting even 1/3 of the entire Ultimate playerbase to buy DLC, they would force Sakurai to keep making new characters forever.

 

[I.D.]

I know I joked about it earlier but

View attachment 304002


I think Pyra may be a bit on the heavier side in terms of weight in Smash

Rude

 

[Pillow]

I know I joked about it earlier but

View attachment 304002


I think Pyra may be a bit on the heavier side in terms of weight in Smash

I doubt she’ll be anything more than mid-weight. Stance characters are usually balanced to have each form be individually on the weaker side, and weight seems like an easy place to hit the character, like how Sephiroth was made light to balance out his range and kill power.

If I were to guess I’ll say Lucina weight for Pyra and Sephiroth weight for Mythra if they even have different weights.

 

[DevaAshera]

Well, in regards to Monster Hunter, we STILL don't have their Mii Costumes, which is why they're frontrunners tbh, that, and Rise being a big, timed exclusive. The fact they've held them off for soo long is rather suspicious. They could have come with Steve, they didn't. They could come with Pyra/Mythra, which we can't say for sure, but if they're still missing, it's going to be really odd for them to miss the Rise release window, you'd assume that Nintendo would want to market Rise hard, considering the timed exclusivity.


Granted, if they appear with Pyra/Mythra, then they're probably as good as dead, and even if they're skipped over for a future pass character, that doesn't mean we're guaranteed a DLC Capcom character, but it's just something to keep an eye on at the end of the day.

True enough, I think Monster Hunter is likely enough, considering the series' popularity and unique moveset potential, which even MvC Infinite took advantage of, I just meant that everyone we thought was likely or lock was either not in (yet), Mii Costume'd, or was a partially right (like how we all though Rex & Pyra/Mythra but then it ended up being just Pyra/Mythra solo)..so its hard to say..I mean, they took forever to toss in the Geno Mii Fighter too instead of doing so with Hero in FP1.

Speaking of the reveal, god seeing Wii era XC1 Shulk (his Ultimate model specifically) next to Pyra is so ****ing weird compared to, you know

View attachment 303994

Ew, the actual XC2 Shulk. The model itself looked pretty jank and out of place compared to Pyra's model, wonder why they didn't use this monstrosity or even the XC1DE model.

Probably because neither one of them is how Shulk looks in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. I do hope that Shulk's model will be updated to match his Definitive Edition model either in this game via an update or in the next game.

Definitely the best looking out of all of Shulk's models over the various games.

 

[Pillow]

True enough, I think Monster Hunter is likely enough, considering the series' popularity and unique moveset potential, which even MvC Infinite took advantage of, I just meant that everyone we thought was likely or lock was either not in (yet), Mii Costume'd, or was a partially right (like how we all though Rex & Pyra/Mythra but then it ended up being just Pyra/Mythra solo)..so its hard to say..I mean, they took forever to toss in the Geno Mii Fighter too instead of doing so with Hero

Geno is probably a bad example since him being missing did sort of end up indicating that we’d end up with another Square character.

If the MH costumes aren’t revealed with Pyra, Phoenix, Dante, Chun-Li and the hunters will definitely be picks to keep a look out for on the next reveal date.

 

[Shroob]

True enough, I think Monster Hunter is likely enough, considering the series' popularity and unique moveset potential, which even MvC Infinite took advantage of, I just meant that everyone we thought was likely or lock was either not in (yet), Mii Costume'd, or was a partially right (like how we all though Rex & Pyra/Mythra but then it ended up being just Pyra/Mythra solo)..so its hard to say..I mean, they took forever to toss in the Geno Mii Fighter too instead of doing so with Hero in FP1.

I mean, with Geno, that was moreso to do with us getting Square content only with Square characters. With how they handled Hero, and the announcement of a 2nd Pass, I think a lot of people were expecting a 2nd Square character, just, not Sephiroth of all characters.


Monster Hunter's Mii outfits can 100% come back with any character really, but the longer they're MIA, the more odd it becomes. It doesn't inherently mean that MH, or a Capcom character in general, are confirmed, but if they somehow dodge this Mii wave, with Lloyd most likely returning as a Mii with Pyra/Mythra, they'll be our only ones left to come back.


For ME, the smoking gun, probably a bad analogy here, would be if they skip Rise's release date. Rise is a timed-exclusive until the end of the year, iirc. It feels like, if P/M are coming before Rise comes out(hopefully), it'd be just free advertising to just toss them in as a sort of "Oh look, Monster Hunter content, and a new, exclusive game is coming out soon!"


If they miss the release window, IMO, there's only 2 options:


A) They're being saved for another character and just being tossed in as filler
B) They're being saved for a CAPCOM character

Both options we have no way of knowing 100%, and this is assuming that they even survive the Pyra/Mythra Mii showcase, which isn't a guarantee at all.

 

[SpecterFlower]

You're making a lot of assumptions here about data we don't have access to. Just thinking about it logically, 42% of the userbase getting DLC is absurdly high. I would bet it's no higher than 20%, maybe even 10%.

Smash isn't a normal fighting game. Maybe 5% keep up with the competitive scene (based on viewership numbers for big events) which is where the bulk of DLC sales are going to come from. The majority of the userbase treats Smash like a fun little party game that has everything it needs right out of the box.

If Nintendo was getting even 1/3 of the entire Ultimate playerbase to buy DLC, they would force Sakurai to keep making new characters forever.

MHW had a terrible retention rate with 6.6mil out of 16.4mil for iceborne, which is around a 40.243902439024% retention rate, keep in mind this is pretty bad for any game to have this low a retention rate. and it's worth noting Iceborne is more expensive than the actual base game whereas fighters passes are 25USD.

10% would be cancelling Fp1 halfway through levels of bad.

and yeah that's the point, those DLC characters are probably are more profitable than some game's, it's mostly about how long Nintendo want's to keep working on smash ultimate before they think allocating those resources elsewhere is more profitable than continuing to fund smash DLC.

 

[N3ON]

Y'know, according to Zhuge, the industry analyst, the attach rate for DLC is usually 10-20%. Even if we're very generous and bump it up to 30% for Smash, that would still fall short of your estimate which posits another 8 million sales for Smash, and doesn't really consider that DLC sales are front-loaded.

 

[SpecterFlower]

Y'know, according to Zhuge, the industry analyst, the attach rate for DLC is usually 10-20%. Even if we're very generous and bump it up to 30% for Smash, that would still fall short of your estimate which posits another 8 million sales for Smash, and doesn't really consider that DLC sales are front-loaded.

Okay.

 

[I.D.]

I swear I remember some sort of interview or financial statement from Nintendo that put the first Fighters Pass attachment rate at around 30%

 

[7NATOR]

MHW had a terrible retention rate with 6.6mil out of 16.4mil for iceborne, which is around a 40.243902439024% retention rate, keep in mind this is pretty bad for any game to have this low a retention rate. and it's worth noting Iceborne is more expensive than the actual base game whereas fighters passes are 25USD.

10% would be cancelling Fp1 halfway through levels of bad.

and yeah that's the point, those DLC characters are probably are more profitable than some game's, it's mostly about how long Nintendo want's to keep working on smash ultimate before they think allocating those resources elsewhere is more profitable than continuing to fund smash DLC.

Actually on this statement, Doesn't Splatoon 2 and Splatoon 3 also showcase how there could be situation where we do get Some new Smash game after DLC is over

Granted Smash Ultimate has been going on into 2021, while Splatoon 2 DLC I believe ended in 2018. but the release of Splatoon 2 in 2017 is a 5 year gap into Splatoon 3 in 2022, and Ultimate came out in 2018, so perhaps we could get a new Smash 5 years from that release date too.

But yeah, reading your entire statement, I guess yeah the Retention rate for the DLC's have to be high. Granted Iceborne I believe is much more expansive than Smash Ultimate DLC (I don't play MH so I don't know). considering Smash reveals are industry wide and honestly the most exciting parts of Presentations, I imagine lots of people are paying attention to DLC

 

[N3ON]

Okay.

couldn't resist