Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Shroob]

Could it not just be because there is a specific locale in which only the 'MH' songs are played?

That's what point A is, yes.

 

[Knight Dude]

Me about a month ago: "Ok, so we just got Sephiroth, the supreme overlord of all swordies. No way we're getting another swordie, at least not unless it's the last DLC character."

Sakurai has entered the chat: "lul Here's another swordie, kids."

Me: "....................."

In all seriousness though, I never thought I'd be so stoked to see another swordie so soon. Pyra/Mythra looks freaking awesome and I can't wait to play them. POWER AND EYE CANDY IN THE SAME PACKAGE. As a big fan XC2, I'm also drooling over all the potential music we'll get. Good times are ahead.

Listen man, most video games characters, especially protagonists can be typically shoved into 4 main categories.

• Hand to Hand bros, Ryu, Terry, Little Mac, Haggar ect.
• Sword Lords, Link, Dante, Marth ect.
• Gun Heads, Mega Men, Samus, Contra dudes, Doom Guy etc.
• Other, like Simon using a whip.

Maybe its because I never really had a problem with swords, rather just specific characters, but I don't see the big deal, the characters got unique moves.

 

[N3ON]

That's what point A is, yes.

Well it doesn't mean nothing, it means BGM is divvied up based on the BG. I wouldn't suggest this theory if Rathalos was present but Monster Hunter didn't have its own stage, even if that stage doesn't function like the others.

If that's what you meant, then I guess we're in agreement.

 

[SharkLord]

With how much Smash has shattered our expectations, I'm almost expecting Lloyd to be promoted just to frick with us, as we seem to have mutually agreed that he's dead and the Hunters are our last chance.

On the other hand, I'm also kinda expecting Velvet to be the one chosen instead, after they ditched the obvious choices in favor of Min Min and Pyra.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

One of my hottest takes is that were it up to me I would've chosen Lyn over Ike and then been free to give Chrom an original Ike-like moveset.

Lyn gang thanks you for your support.

 

[Perkilator]

That makes sense and all, but how is it that we didn't get a single character with a Japanese sword until Sephiroth? It's not like Fire Emblem didn't have an option for that either!

I would've loved to see Takamaru or Sakura Shinguji for that reason!

 

[SharkLord]

That makes sense and all, but how is it that we didn't get a single character with a Japanese sword until Sephiroth? It's not like Fire Emblem didn't have an option for that either!

Japan just likes European fantasies. Dunno why, maybe there's just an inherent appeal in a foreign culture you don't know as well as your own. That, or Dragon Quest just hammered the setting into every JRPG it can.

 

[Polan]

Well it doesn't mean nothing, it means BGM is divvied up based on the BG. I wouldn't suggest this theory if Rathalos was present but Monster Hunter didn't have its own stage, even if that stage doesn't function like the others.

If that's what you meant, then I guess we're in agreement.

but why class it that way for one song? its not like proof of the hero plays on the boss stage.

 

[Ivander]

Decided to watch Rogerbase's reaction.


He was losing his mind so hard that when the Fall Guys part started, he went "FALL GUYS IN SM----".

Let's wait until the game is out, man. Then we can really talk about Fall Guys costumes in Smash. And maybe a stage with music. Cause Fall Guys music is so good.

 

[SpecterFlower]

im going with B. i feel like monster hunter was definitely one of those characters that we're worked on but got the boot somewhere along development thanks to the workload of "everyone is here". it just feels...wrong that rathalos is there all by himself, with an entire WoL section to himself, two tracks and leftovers from where monster hunter was classed as playable internally. personally it feels like the chorus men/rhythm heaven character stuff again with remnants of what was once intended to be playable left over. unlike rhythm heaven tho, monster hunter is a very popular and active franchise so its got more going for it than RH ever did.

Rhythm heaven is still alive, trust me it's doing good for itself, it's around pikmin and xenoblade tier.

 

[SharkLord]

but why class it that way for one song? its not like proof of the hero plays on the boss stage.

Well, there is a boss fight there. Maybe they thought it gave MH some extra status despite not having a fighter or selectable stage; After all, every other boss is from a series that has both.

 

[SNEKeater]

Random but the Guilty Gear Strive beta is now available to download on PS4 so if you're curious about the series you can try the game this weekend. It has tutorial, training, versus and online modes. Now with good netcode.

Arc System Works should hire me after all my shilling.

 

[Knight Dude]

"Mortal Kombat has no presence in Japan" is a bit disingenuous. It's not being sold since the first game(and I think maybe some of 2?), due to the violent nature of the game itself. It however is on the black market often because people still want it. It has a smaller presence, and one I agree would affect Nintendo's thought on having it in Smash. Since they can't fully promote it very well at that point. I'd see a Spirit Event as possile.

However, the whole "they can't work in Smash" isn't a good point. Blood and Gore is not a requirement, and having forceful "violent" moves has been done just fine with Ridley. They can easily transfer their personality and style very well. That doesn't mean it's a logical representation, since the blood/gore is important to the series(though Nintendo has legally had it censored before, so it's clear that it can get away with it fine). Never mind Mortal Kombat VS DC Universe(the official game number 8 in the MK universe itself) shows it's most definitely not an issue to censor it. Not speaking on how good a game it is. It's "okay" at best.

I don't think they're getting in regardless, but it's not due to a lack of presence(it has the popularity worldwide to justify it), it's due to it being unable to be sold, making it a difficult series to promote and Sakurai probably not wanting to censor the point behind the series that much. Of course, we don't actually know how Sakurai nor Nintendo feel, but I doubt them. Seeing the lack of actual ability to sell, that also means a Spirit Event might be avoided for similar reasons. On another note, Nintendo has more than once had exclusive content in their MK ports before, so it's not like they don't have good ties with the series. It had more Kharacters in the Wii version of Armageddon(and the only thing it lacked was online, since MKWii had to have it first), Khameleon alone was a Nintendo exclusive, and then there's stuff like various DLC characters/options like Shao Kahn. They do clearly have a decent tie to the series, whether it's censoring or exclusive, that other console companies don't have. Means little, but at least we know they see it as something they take an interest in enough for exclusive content. It means jack for Smash, though, due to other factors.

MK 1, 2, and the PS1 version of 3 were released in Japan from what I remember.

 

[SpecterFlower]

Japan just likes European fantasies. Dunno why, maybe there's just an inherent appeal in a foreign culture you don't know as well as your own. That, or Dragon Quest just hammered the setting into every JRPG it can.

recently traditional Japanese stuff has been getting really popular there again!

GOT was the biggest 1st party sony game there, unfortunately it has no stock and Sakuna was a huge overperformer, not too mention Rise will likely break the series's records.

 

[Pillow]

I feel like I'm the only one apathetic about Greninja's design and wish they had stuck with the cloud motif.


One of my hottest takes is that were it up to me I would've chosen Lyn over Ike and then been free to give Chrom an original Ike-like moveset.

I'd replace Roy if anything. I know he's a Smash darling, but Ike represent the Tellus series while Roy exists in the same timeline as Lyn.

Japan just likes European fantasies. Dunno why, maybe there's just an inherent appeal in a foreign culture you don't know as well as your own. That, or Dragon Quest just hammered the setting into every JRPG it can.

Yeah I know, but even acknowledging that fact there was still plenty of options. Lyn, Chrono, Takamaru, Raiden, Hayabusa, Haohmaru, etc. the list of both 1st and 3rd party characters is very extensive. I'm just surprised that Sakurai never wanted a single samurai character in the game is all, given how prevalent they are and how none have existed in Smash.

 

[Shroob]

Monster Hunter is a series to keep an eye on.


If it's missing from the P/M presentation, while it doesn't inherently mean anything one way or another, it would be incredibly odd.


If it's there though, then... rip.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

MK 1, 2, and the PS1 version of 3 were released in Japan from what I remember.

Case in point to what I mean. Yes, it has presence in Japan. No, it's not much. But I wouldn't compare it so series who legit never had a game released there, yeah.

That's why I consider them unlikely, mind you. Not a lack of presence, but no sales to be had. Even BK had that much. And SNK games were still available worldwide and had more coming soon. Ports are still effectively good business, so.

 

[StrangeKitten]

How about a slight deviation: What are your favorite character designs in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate?

Mario: Something about this scrappy little guy is so fun to watch! And FLUDD and Cape lead to hilarious gimps

Bowser: I mean, this has been my favorite Smash character since Melee. Only you don't see him often in Melee because he's bad to the point of being unfun to play. Same went for Brawl, and then in 4 he was kinda just worse DK. Thankfully, in Ultimate, his entire kit finally feels good to use. He feels strong, but with enough weaknesses to balance him out.

Wolf: He's also scrappy, and I love how anti-projectile he is. And if we're talking aesthetics instead of moveset, he's bad*** and flashy!

Joker: I love how nimble he is, and how his whole kit flows so well.

Incineroar: Well, this one's personal. I would play-wrestle with my cat, but he went missing shortly before gen 7 released. So while many people disliked Incineroar, I thought he embodied the spirit of my cat well. He was a Russian Blue, hence my liking for Incineroar's dark gray alt.

Pokemon Trainer: Most anyone likes the original starters, and I love how this character implements different playstyles and the switching mechanic

 

[TwiceEXE]

Monster Hunter is a series to keep an eye on.


If it's missing from the P/M presentation, while it doesn't inherently mean anything one way or another, it would be incredibly odd.


If it's there though, then... rip.

I really don't think it means that much. Order of release is a fallacy that a lot of fans have fallen into. Look at the Geno fans, who convinced themselves that since Geno hadn't shown up with the first 7 characters he was a lock to be playable.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

But once you start to do that:

weebs tryna explain why they love Pyra/Mythra for their "deep" & "well written" character pic.twitter.com/OMOb25ig8y

— Bernihetero (@Bernihetero) February 18, 2021

There's no winning with some people. At least when people **** on Rex they try to be kind of funny.

Okay, I'll give it a go.

One aspect I really like about Mythra and Pyra is how Pyra is what Mythra wants to be.

Spoiler

Pyra is a constructed personality based on Mythra's own insecurities.

That's why Pyra is everything Mythra isn't. She's calm, feminine and domestically skilled. Those are things Mythra was teased about and thus insecure about.

Pyra was Mythra's method of coping.

 

[Polan]

Well, there is a boss fight there. Maybe they thought it gave MH some extra status despite not having a fighter or selectable stage; After all, every other boss is from a series that has both.

this stuff is all internal so i dont see much of a point in giving a series special treatment in sorting. maybe if they just wanted to keep track of the MH songs during dev since there's a lot of songs but im pretty sure they have other ways of doing that.

 

[N3ON]

You're not alone. I don't dislike it but I dunno, the frog ninja just doesn't wow me as much as I like the concept

Yeah, I don't dislike it either, but I'm surprised how effusive the reaction has been. Personally I liked Chesnaught more, but for the sake of altruism I guess they made the right call. If they had to choose a starter. And hey, at least it wasn't Delphox. xP

Though I have to say the first time I saw Greninja's tongue, my immediate thought was "ew", lol.

but why class it that way for one song? its not like proof of the hero plays on the boss stage.

I didn't know that Proof of the Hero didn't play on that stage, but I imagine it would be for the sake of consistency with how the music from the other stages were probably programmed.

I'd replace Roy if anything. I know he's a Smash darling, but Ike represent the Tellus series while Roy exists in the same timeline as Lyn.

Well but Roy and Lyn aren't really interchangeable. Roy is a clone that was added before Lyn existed. His absence wouldn't have allowed for her presence. I picked Ike because you can't add Lyn to Melee but you could've chosen her instead for Brawl.

I mean if you could replace anyone with anyone I too would get rid of derivate characters to add original ones. Failing that, I would pick several other FE characters before getting rid of Ike. But he and Lyn are interchangeable in this situation in that Brawl was the time one of them would've been added.

 

[Shroob]

I really don't think it means that much. Order of release is a fallacy that a lot of fans have fallen into. Look at the Geno fans, who convinced themselves that since Geno hadn't shown up with the first 7 characters he was a lock to be playable.

I think, at least in my opinion, since Rise is a timed exclusive, now is the best time to drop the costumes, more or less as a small bit of advertising. It doesn't 'have' to come now, sure, but from a purely advertisal standpoint, now seems like the best time.

Even if they miss this slot, that in no way, shape or form implies that we're guaranteed getting a Capcom character in the pass, just that it's something to keep an eye on, is all.

 

[SharkLord]

I saw a comment some time ago and thinking about it, I agree wholeheartedly:
If we get a "shill pick," it will be months after release instead of around that time.
All of the recent picks that were chosen in advance had a good month between their home game's release and their addition to Smash. X and Y released a good two years before Greninja's reveal, Fates' Japanese release was about six months before Corrin's reveal, and Incineroar and Byleth pretty much repeated their predecessors.
Seeing as CP11 is probably around the September-October range, I think any 2021 character would have to be from June at the earliest, and that's pushing it. Well, maybe we could let it slide for an already established character like, say, Bandana Dee, but any new IPs and retro revivals would have to be releasing recently, and the only logical candidates at the moment are the Hunters for Rise and Ayumi for Famicom Detective Club.

 

[Pillow]

Yeah, I don't dislike it either, but I'm surprised how effusive the reaction has been. Personally I liked Chesnaught more, but for the sake of altruism I guess they made the right call. If they had to choose a starter. And hey, at least it wasn't Delphox. xP

Though I have to say the first time I saw Greninja's tongue, my immediate thought was "ew", lol.


I didn't know that Proof of the Hero didn't play on that stage, but I imagine it would be for the sake of consistency with how the music from the other stages were probably programmed.


Well but Roy and Lyn aren't really interchangeable. Roy is a clone that was added before Lyn existed. His absence wouldn't have allowed for her presence. I picked Ike because you can't add Lyn to Melee but you could've chosen her instead for Brawl.

I mean if you could replace anyone with anyone I too would get rid of derivate characters to add original ones. Failing that, I would pick several other FE characters before getting rid of Ike. But he and Lyn are interchangeable in this situation in that Brawl was the time one of them would've been added.

Mmmm...yeah I wasn't really thinking that deeply into it, beyond "if fire emblem has to have 6 unique fighters in Smash, I'd like them to be [x]". Like I would've been okay if Ike was introduced as a Marth clone in Roy's stead and Lyn was the unique fighter. It's all hypothetical anyway. But sure, yeah I'd take Lyn over Ike.

 

[Louie G.]

personally it feels like the chorus men/rhythm heaven character stuff again with remnants of what was once intended to be playable left over. unlike rhythm heaven tho, monster hunter is a very popular and active franchise so its got more going for it than RH ever did.

Makes me wonder what could have been had Smash 4 DLC went on a little longer and was able to give some concepts a second chance.

Ah well, I just make myself sad thinking about those things lmao. I really wish we had a Rhythm Heaven character right now.

 

[Knight Dude]

How about a slight deviation: What are your favorite character designs in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate?

Mechanically? Well, Mega Man's my main, and I really like how he plays for the most part. He's mostly based on wearing down the enemy keeping them in the mid range, while still having explosively powerful close range options. Nothing's gonna beat blocking/parrying an attack and following up with a clean Mega Upper. His throws are also really cool, just chucks mother****ers with one hand. Wish Rush landing on people did damage tho. Can't do his infinite combo worth a damn.

Ryu/Ken/Terry are also really fun design wise being able to more or less implement EX moves when using the proper inputs, and it isn't even mandatory for those who are uncomfortable using them. The sound design on Ryu and Ken is also some of the best in the game with SF2 and SF3 references, Focus attack being really satisfying to use and Terry having the best Bread and Butter combo to land.

I almost want to shout out Ganon, if only because despite being consistently low-tier in every game, clearly they did something right because people ALWAYS play him no matter what. He's a character all about power and runs with that. Not even Bowser has that level of hype behind him I think.

 

[Shroob]

I do kinda find it odd that Generation 8 has, well, nothing to be blunt.


It feels like between base game and DLC, we've been getting stages to represent the new Switch games.


New Donk City
Great Plateau Tower
The Monastery from 3 Houses
Spring Stadium
And wherever the heck the XB2 is



But Pokemon didn't get a stage for Gen 7, OR Gen 8.


I'm not trying to go "Hur hur Gen 8 boogeyman, Gen 8 bad", but it feels a touch odd that Pokemon hasn't gotten anything.

 

[DevaAshera]

So..um..has anyone mentioned that Fire Theory is surprisingly alive and well? Like, I don't subscribe to it, but..I mean..its funny how everyone added have a fire attack of some sort XD
- Her Dragon shooting fire, of course.
- Various Moves involve Fire
- Attacks, such as Neutral Special and Dash Attack, incorporate Fire

- Most of Pyra's attacks include Fire

I will note, however, that the streak is broken if you count Mythra as her own character slot in the DLC, but the site shows just Pyra in the Character Selector, so it depends on how one views the Fighters Pass as having 4/6 or 5/7.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Okay, I'll give it a go.

One aspect I really like about Mythra and Pyra is how Pyra is what Mythra wants to be.

Spoiler

Pyra is a constructed personality based on Mythra's own insecurities.

That's why Pyra is everything Mythra isn't. She's calm, feminine and domestically skilled. Those are things Mythra was teased about and thus insecure about.

Pyra was Mythra's method of coping.

claps enthusiastically

10/10!

 

[Shroob]

So..um..has anyone mentioned that Fire Theory is surprisingly alive and well? Like, I don't subscribe to it, but..I mean..its funny how everyone added have a fire attack of some sort XD
- Her Dragon shooting fire, of course.
- Various Moves involve Fire
- Attacks, such as Neutral Special and Dash Attack, incorporate Fire
View attachment 303969 - Most of Pyra's attacks include Fire

Yes, let my ****post theory continue to grow big and strong

 

[Polan]

I didn't know that Proof of the Hero didn't play on that stage, but I imagine it would be for the sake of consistency with how the music from the other stages were probably programmed.

yeah proof of the hero only plays on the overworld for WoL and on whatever stages you set it on. dont think it ever plays on the boss stage. but there's also galleom who you fight in a modified shadow moses with the brawl boss theme playing so i dont think the music has to be strictly attached to the boss stages.

I do kinda find it odd that Generation 8 has, well, nothing to be blunt.


It feels like between base game and DLC, we've been getting stages to represent the new Switch games.


New Donk City
Great Plateau Tower
The Monastery from 3 Houses
Spring Stadium
And wherever the heck the XB2 is



But Pokemon didn't get a stage for Gen 7, OR Gen 8.


I'm not trying to go "Hur hur Gen 8 boogeyman, Gen 8 bad", but it feels a touch odd that Pokemon hasn't gotten anything.

forgot where i saw it but someone suggested that there was probably an 7th gen stage in development given how many 7th gen remixes we got in the final game but it got cut. which is why we need misc dlc. bring in all the stuff that couldnt make it to the base game that isnt characters. c'mon sakurai. plz. i need pac maze ;(

 

[Sysreq]

I saw a comment some time ago and thinking about it, I agree wholeheartedly:
If we get a "shill pick," it will be months after release instead of around that time.
Ayumi for Famicom Detective Club.

As much as I would love Ayumi, that would be "wHo??" levels on a whole new scale. And tbh there'd be no winning for her 'cuz she'd have to either follow Pyra & Mythra so it'd be "two zzzz in a row, wow" or "what a nobody to end the DLC on." I would feel so bad for her lol but at the same time be hype

 

[PLATINUM7]

So..um..has anyone mentioned that Fire Theory is surprisingly alive and well? Like, I don't subscribe to it, but..I mean..its funny how everyone added have a fire attack of some sort XD
- Her Dragon shooting fire, of course.
- Various Moves involve Fire
- Attacks, such as Neutral Special and Dash Attack, incorporate Fire
View attachment 303969 - Most of Pyra's attacks include Fire

Shroob is dancing on the ceiling.

Back to reality though, fire is one of the most common elements across movesets. Almost every character has at least one flame effect.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Rhythm heaven is still alive, trust me it's doing good for itself, it's around pikmin and xenoblade tier.

Really, this is just totally wrong. Pikmin 3 on Switch has sold almost 2 million copies and Pikmin 4 is probably coming eventually (well it was coming soon 5 years ago so who knows at this point). Xenoblade is a very young franchise but that has grown super fast with Chronicles 2 selling 2 millions copies and Xenoblade definitie edition selling 1.42 million sales. The only Rhythm games to top 1 million is the DS one more than 10 years ago.

I love Ryhthm heaven, but there's no way anyone would think the franchise is doing as well as Xenoblade. I think the next Xenoblade (which is probably already in development) will sell even better.

 

[TwiceEXE]

What I'm gathering is that Sol Badguy and Gwyn, Lord of Cinder are CONFIRMED for the final slots.

 

[Polan]

What I'm gathering is that Sol Badguy and Gwyn, Lord of Cinder are CONFIRMED for the final slots.

all but confirmed. you heard it from me who is never wrong about anything ever.

 

[N3ON]

I saw a comment some time ago and thinking about it, I agree wholeheartedly:
If we get a "shill pick," it will be months after release instead of around that time.
All of the recent picks that were chosen in advance had a good month between their home game's release and their addition to Smash. X and Y released a good two years before Greninja's reveal, Fates' Japanese release was about six months before Corrin's reveal, and Incineroar and Byleth pretty much repeated their predecessors.
Seeing as CP11 is probably around the September-October range, I think any 2021 character would have to be from June at the earliest, and that's pushing it. Well, maybe we could let it slide for an already established character like, say, Bandana Dee, but any new IPs and retro revivals would have to be releasing recently, and the only logical candidates at the moment are the Hunters for Rise and Ayumi for Famicom Detective Club.

It's mostly pushing it because chances are these characters were all chosen two years ago, and that exceeds the timeframe for how far into the future promotional picks have been drawn. X/Y released in 2013, and the Smash 4 roster was made in 2012. Same one year gap with S/M and Ultimate. Same one year gap with 3H and DLC. So if these characters were decided in the first half of 2019, tying it to a game releasing this year, especially later in the year... it would certainly be pushing it.

Mmmm...yeah I wasn't really thinking that deeply into it, beyond "if fire emblem has to have 6 unique fighters in Smash, I'd like them to be [x]". Like I would've been okay if Ike was introduced as a Marth clone in Roy's stead and Lyn was the unique fighter. It's all hypothetical anyway. But sure, yeah I'd take Lyn over Ike.

Honestly if I could pick any FE character to replace with Lyn... as much as I would like to say I'd pick one of the three Marth clones... I'd probably still pick Corrin.

I do kinda find it odd that Generation 8 has, well, nothing to be blunt.


It feels like between base game and DLC, we've been getting stages to represent the new Switch games.


New Donk City
Great Plateau Tower
The Monastery from 3 Houses
Spring Stadium
And wherever the heck the XB2 is



But Pokemon didn't get a stage for Gen 7, OR Gen 8.


I'm not trying to go "Hur hur Gen 8 boogeyman, Gen 8 bad", but it feels a touch odd that Pokemon hasn't gotten anything.

I'm trying to convince myself that getting the Gen 8 Gym Leader theme would make getting a character I truly don't care about worth it.

So far it's been a challenge. xD

 

[Knight Dude]

I do kinda find it odd that Generation 8 has, well, nothing to be blunt.


It feels like between base game and DLC, we've been getting stages to represent the new Switch games.


New Donk City
Great Plateau Tower
The Monastery from 3 Houses
Spring Stadium
And wherever the heck the XB2 is



But Pokemon didn't get a stage for Gen 7, OR Gen 8.


I'm not trying to go "Hur hur Gen 8 boogeyman, Gen 8 bad", but it feels a touch odd that Pokemon hasn't gotten anything.

Well, in base game it got a then newer character with Incineroar. And you gotta keep in mind, base game got like only 4 new stages anyways(one being Simon's stage), not counting the updated takes on old stages. The fact that base game got a few new characters and a chunk of echoes is also reflected in the stage selection I guess. Which, in my eyes, is understandable. You don't pull a crazier Marvel 2 without having to cut corners in some areas. MK Armageddon had to simplify most of its roster to get 60 mother****ers in it.

It could be one of the DLC characters is a Pokemon, it's something most people kind of expected, with some dreading and others hyping up. But its not as if Pokemon got completely looked over as a title like some viewed ARMS and XBC2, though even that might be a tad disingenuous, since XBC2 got music and ARMS got 2 Mii costumes and an AT. But hey, Pokemon was able to give us the proper wrestler that Smash needed.

I could also say its strange something like Snipperclips didn't get a stage considering its an early switch game and we do get stages from less known titles like the green screen eye burner that is electroplankton.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I saw a comment some time ago and thinking about it, I agree wholeheartedly:
If we get a "shill pick," it will be months after release instead of around that time.
All of the recent picks that were chosen in advance had a good month between their home game's release and their addition to Smash. X and Y released a good two years before Greninja's reveal, Fates' Japanese release was about six months before Corrin's reveal, and Incineroar and Byleth pretty much repeated their predecessors.
Seeing as CP11 is probably around the September-October range, I think any 2021 character would have to be from June at the earliest, and that's pushing it. Well, maybe we could let it slide for an already established character like, say, Bandana Dee, but any new IPs and retro revivals would have to be releasing recently, and the only logical candidates at the moment are the Hunters for Rise and Ayumi for Famicom Detective Club.

That's true, but if Covid change some plans and the character are chosen in advance I guess there's a possibility that the character could release more near to the release of his game. Like for example, if one game was planned this summer, but moved for the holiday because of Covid, then the character could have been chosen for Smash and still be our last fighter.