Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Shroob]

Anyway, no, they're not going to randomly make CP11 take an exponentially longer amount of time than normal.


Assuming that the Direct actually does fall on the 7th/8th, that's 100% in line with prior reveals, and is frankly "the average" of anywhere between 80-90 days. Steve is the absolute latest it got, and even then, Steve was held off to coincide with Minecon, nothing more to do.



Assuming they do show who CP11 is and don't pull a like "Tune in on X day for a Mr.Sakurai presents!", the character will be shown off, we'll get a date for the Mr.Sakurai presents, and the character will either drop the day of said presents, or a few days after.



I feel like people cling way too hard on the "December 31st" date, which was a placeholder.

 

[Staarih]

It wouldn't be for no reason though, even if people don't own the fighter's pass, Waluigi will still show up in their game if they play online. So while the Waluigi AT won't be there, he'll still be playable.

Also, how many people are realisitcally gonna complain about 1/80 AT's being removed. Or 1/100+ spirits being removed. Who's going to collect spirits for a fighter that's playable, and who will care if the AT for a playable fighter is still in the game?

Not everyone plays online either. And no one is probably going to complain, sure, but the base game is a package built for the price the game is sold at, so even the smallest of content removed for no real reason would still raise eyebrows. Especially as it would be one of the AT's which we have a set number of and no more added later.

The most I could see done is have the AT programmed not to appear when Waluigi is on stage. If he becomes playable of course.

 

[WahHahaha]

Not everyone plays online either. And no one is probably going to complain, sure, but the base game is a package built for the price the game is sold at, so even the smallest of content removed for no real reason would still raise eyebrows. Especially as it would be one of the AT's which we have a set number of and no more added later.

The most I could see done is have the AT programmed not to appear when Waluigi is on stage. If he becomes playable of course.

Literally all that would happen is the base game package changing, ever so slightly. Maybe by like 0.5% or something. Seeing as people buy a different package almost all the time since new spirits get added to the game frequently, it wouldn't be much different and it would balance out eventually. The only thing that would be notable is one AT's missing, people would just realize that Waluigi is a fighter now and not really care.

 

[N3ON]

I often wonder how much people know about programming if they think removing an AT is a great technical challenge. Let alone a technical challenge on par with creating Steve, and the en masse stage modification that accompanied him.

It's so much easier to remove an extraneous and inessential part of the game like an AT than build a character, even a simple one. Even an echo. Let alone one of the most complex so far.

 

[Jondolio]

They're probably not gonna remove Waluigi's AT if he's added. They're also definitely not gonna remove his spirit, seeing as they didn't remove Min Min and Pythra's spirits.

 

[osby]

Literally all that would happen is the base game package changing, ever so slightly. Maybe by like 0.5% or something. Seeing as people buy a different package almost all the time since new spirits get added to the game frequently, it wouldn't be much different and it would balance out eventually. The only thing that would be notable is one AT's missing, people would just realize that Waluigi is a fighter now and not really care.

Small or not, it's not a good look when a company deletes content from your game because you didn't buy DLC.

Wouldn't it be much easier to just disable Waluigi's AT summon when he's in a match rather than just outright removing it from the game?

 

[Shroob]

Let's do some calculation for posterity's sake.


Revealed: November 1st, 2018/Released: January 29th/31st 2019
Revealed: December 6th, 2018/Released: April 27th, 2019
Revealed: June 11th, 2019/Released: July 30th, 2019
Revealed: June 11th, 2019/Released: September 4th, 2019
Revealed: September 4th, 2019/Released: November 6th, 2019
Revealed: January 16th, 2020/Released: January 28th, 2020
Revealed: March 26th, 2020(ARMS guessing game), June 22nd, 2020(Official reveal)/Released: June 29th, 2020
Revealed: October 1st, 2020/Released: October 13th, 2020
Revealed: December 10th, 2020/Released December 17th, 2020(Sephiroth Challenge), December 22nd, 2020(Official release)
Revealed: February 17th, 2021/Released: March 4th, 2021
Revealed: June 15th, 2021/Released: June 28th, 2021




If someone wants me to do a list of actual time gaps between reveals, I will, but it's pretty obvious that at Byleth, they decided to stop doing the "Reveal now, release months later", and we're 100% on track for CP11 to be shown off this month.

 

[subterrestrial]

normalize stamina tourneys

 

[WahHahaha]

Let's do some calculation for posterity's sake.


Revealed: March 26th, 2020(ARMS guessing game), June 22nd, 2020(Official reveal)/Released: June 29th, 2020

I mean you would have been right , if you didn't stretch the meaning of the word reveal for Min Min. But I guess it's fitting because she's from ARMS.

 

[Shroob]

I mean you would have been right , if you didn't stretch the meaning of the word reveal for Min Min. But I guess it's fitting because she's from ARMS.

I don't think anyone considers the ARMs guessing game Min Min's official reveal, because it wasn't. It was the reveal that "ARMs is next!", but it wasn't confirmation that Min Min would be the chosen one.


This is also when Corona hit, so what happened was basically out of their control as they started to work from home, remember, Japan infamously did not handle the pandemic well and refused to really take it seriously until it got out of hand, meaning they weren't prepared at all for it.


After Min Min, things stabilized. There was a big gap between Min Min and Steve, but Steve was being held off to coincide with Minecon, and after that, we got Steve, Sephiroth and Pythra all within 4 months time.

 

[WahHahaha]

I don't think anyone considers the ARMs guessing game Min Min's official reveal, because it wasn't. It was the reveal that "ARMs is next!", but it wasn't confirmation that Min Min would be the chosen one.

No you're wrong.

This is also when Corona hit, so what happened was basically out of their control as they started to work from home, remember, Japan infamously did not handle the pandemic well and refused to really take it seriously until it got out of hand, meaning they weren't prepared at all for it.

Yes you're right

After Min Min, things stabilized. There was a big gap between Min Min and Steve, but Steve was being held off to coincide with Minecon, and after that, we got Steve, Sephiroth and Pythra all within 4 months time.

No you're wrong again. They didn't hold off Steve to coincide with Minecon. He happened to be revealed in the same month that minecon happened. Sakurai even talked about minecon, but it definitely wasn't planned. Steve was a complex fighter worked on during lockdown, that was the only reason he took so long.

 

[Idon]

You're all overlooking one simple solution:

 

[Shroob]

No you're wrong.

Entirely your opinion

Yes you're right

Thank you

No you're wrong again. They didn't hold off Steve to coincide with Minecon. He happened to be revealed in the same month that minecon happened. Sakurai even talked about minecon, but it definitely wasn't planned. Steve was a complex fighter worked on during lockdown, that was the only reason he took so long.

Incorrect. People datamined the in game announcements of Smash and found an entire Directs worth of empty announcement spots in early/mid September. Unless you honest to god believe that Steve was being worked on until the 11th hour and he was still being worked on until the day he was pushed out, Steve was 100% done by early-mid September.

 

[WahHahaha]

Incorrect. People datamined the in game announcements of Smash and found an entire Directs worth of empty announcement spots in early/mid September. Unless you honest to god believe that Steve was being worked on until the 11th hour and he was still being worked on until the day he was pushed out, Steve was 100% done by early-mid September.

[/QUOTE]


Then by your logic, he could have just been revealed at minecon right? Not 2 days before it in Sakurai presents that would loosely tie into minecon because Jeb would come on stage and say "oh hey Minecraft is in Smash" and they would show the trailer before the event even started.

If they wanted to tie into minecon, they could have done a way better job than this and Nintendo doesn't really need another company's event to get people excited that Minecraft Steve is in the game.

 

[ZelDan]

If playable Chrom can get beaten up by Robin's FS Chrom while Mii Chrom watches from a distance, I'm pretty sure they can figure something out for assist trophies.

 

[Shroob]

Then by your logic, he could have just been revealed at minecon right? Not 2 days before it in Sakurai presents that would loosely tie into minecon because Jeb would come on stage and say "oh hey Minecraft is in Smash" and they would show the trailer before the event even started.

If they wanted to tie into minecon, they could have done a way better job than this and Nintendo doesn't really need another company's event to get people excited that Minecraft Steve is in the game.

Nope.


That's why I said coincide.



I have evidence to support my claim, be it that when Steve was revealed, all those empty spots were filled by his info. Unless you can debunk this, which, you can't, since it's actual in-game info, you're not gonna win this one.

 

[WahHahaha]

Nope.


That's why I said coincide.



I have evidence to support my claim, be it that when Steve was revealed, all those empty spots were filled by his info. Unless you can debunk this, which, you can't, since it's actual in-game info, you're not gonna win this one.

I can't debunk it unless you show me where this in game data is

 

[Shroob]

I can't debunk it unless you show me where this in game data is

It's the in-game news sections. You can open those pages with an actual internet browser and see that they're all numbered, it's how people are able to know what gets skipped like Tournaments or Spirit Events, because they can see a certain # is missing.


All those in game things are numbered in an actual browser, so when say, you have #1234, and then the next one is sudden 1246#, you pretty much know that a character was skipped over, due to all the in-game notifs like Mii costumes, spirits, etc taking a single entry.



This is quite literally why people were losing their mind in the middle of September, because a HUGE gap like this occurred, and when Steve came out, all his info, including things like the Mii costumes, filled those missing data entries, which were all in September.

 

[Jondolio]

Is this really an interesting discussion?

 

[TheCJBrine]

Then by your logic, he could have just been revealed at minecon right? Not 2 days before it in Sakurai presents that would loosely tie into minecon because Jeb would come on stage and say "oh hey Minecraft is in Smash" and they would show the trailer before the event even started.

If they wanted to tie into minecon, they could have done a way better job than this and Nintendo doesn't really need another company's event to get people excited that Minecraft Steve is in the game.

I mean Nintendo never really reveals or announces stuff at others’ events unless the event has stuff specifically relating to them (i.e. I think a tournament or something sometime in 2018) or E3. Considering Sakurai made a video specifically for Minecon and Steve’s reveal was just a couple days before, it’s entirely possible they decided to coincide his reveal with Minecon but still wanted to do their own video like they usually do.

And yeah, they don’t need another company’s event to have people hyped for Steve, but this other company is literally the company that made Steve so I don’t see why that matters…

 

[Idon]

Luckily Zero doesn't have this issue at all.

If this Zero is occupied on the battlefield...

We could always use his variations:

Black Zero, Zero's upgraded armor

Awakened Zero, Zero when he became evil

Zero Nightmare, a copy of Zero made to kill X

Mega Man Zero Zero, Zero after upgrading his body over the course of a few hundred years

Omega, a separate personality that stole Mega Man Zero Zero's original body

Model Z, A person manifesting the power of Zero via using him as a kamen rider transformation device.

Model ZX, A person manifesting the power of both Zero and X via using TWO kamen rider style transformation devices.

or ViA, a rogue AI that just looks like Zero for... reasons.

... and that's just the canon ones.

 

[WahHahaha]

It's the in-game news sections. You can open those pages with an actual internet browser and see that they're all numbered, it's how people are able to know what gets skipped like Tournaments or Spirit Events, because they can see a certain # is missing.


All those in game things are numbered in an actual browser, so when say, you have #1234, and then the next one is sudden 1246#, you pretty much know that a character was skipped over, due to all the in-game notifs like Mii costumes, spirits, etc taking a single entry.



This is quite literally why people were losing their mind in the middle of September, because a HUGE gap like this occurred, and when Steve came out, all his info, including things like the Mii costumes, filled those missing data entries, which were all in September.

Ok, I still don't get how that proves he was 100% done in September though. A fighter isn't 100% done when they're ready to be announced, but there's still enough progress made that they can be shown.

That data coming in September could just mean that he was almost done and they placed that there for when he was. And if he was coinciding with minecon, I see literally no reason to not just drop him at the beginning of October. Wouldn't that be the ultimate way to cash out on all of the hype for him?

 

[Shroob]

Ok, I still don't get how that proves he was 100% done in September though. A fighter isn't 100% done when they're ready to be announced, but there's still enough progress made that they can be shown.

That data coming in September could just mean that he was almost done and they placed that there for when he was. And if he was coinciding with minecon, I see literally no reason to not just drop him at the beginning of October. Wouldn't that be the ultimate way to cash out on all of the hype for him?

Because Steve is the only character to be like this. Every other character has been consistent with their reveal. Steve is the one exception where his data came earlier than his actual reveal.

And I have no idea what you mean. He was dropped October 1st. That's literally the beginning of October.

 

[WahHahaha]

And I have no idea what you mean. He was dropped October 1st. That's literally the beginning of Minecon.

The character though, if he was 100% done, just drop him at minecon. By your logic that would get way more people excited for him. Why would they wait until the middle of October to actually release him, there is a huge hole in your logic.

 

[Shroob]

The character though, if he was 100% done, just drop him at minecon. By your logic that would get way more people excited for him.

No, because that causes all sorts of problems.


What do you want Sakurai to say? "Hey, tune into Minecon to see a new character?" That obviously gives it away that it's Steve. By revealing it alone, you can tie it into Minecon without giving it away via a Twitter post going "Hey, we're gonna reveal a new character at an event dedicated to a single game, guess who?"

 

[ZelDan]

If we are going with the idea of a character replacing an AT character while they on the field with another character with similar powers, or just another version of the same character, then Isaac is easily covered as well:

 

[WahHahaha]

No, because that causes all sorts of problems.


What do you want Sakurai to say? "Hey, tune into Minecon to see a new character?" That obviously gives it away that it's Steve. By revealing it alone, you can tie it into Minecon without giving it away via a Twitter post going "Hey, we're gonna reveal a new character at an event dedicated to a single game, guess who?"

That's not what i said though. Minecon Was on October 3rd. Steve released October 13th, if Minecon promotion was their whole plan you'd think he would be released almost immediately after Minecon but that never happened.

 

[Shroob]

That's not what though. Minecon Was on October 3rd. Steve released October 13th, if Minecon promotion was their whole plan you'd think he would be released almost immediately after Minecon but that never happened.

.....you do remember he was revealed October 1st, right? That's quite literally promotion for Minecon.

 

[Idon]

That's not what i said though. Minecon Was on October 3rd. Steve released October 13th, if Minecon promotion was their whole plan you'd think he would be released almost immediately after Minecon but that never happened.

I'm no expert in market strategy, but dropping a fighting game character on the exact same day or even week when a live convention takes place where a livestream of a highly anticipated upcoming future expansion of a game is being featured seems like it'd take away from the hype of either release.

I feel like providing a small amount of time between the events to prolong the attention given to either of them is the smarter business decision.

Not to mention Sakurai already had a month or so old "Sakurai presents" video lying around to air before minecon in wait which specifically mentions minecon and the release date a specific date after.

At the very least, this has been planned for quite a while and not a desperate rush.

 

[Guynamednelson]

If we are going with the idea of a character replacing an AT character while they on the field with another character with similar powers, or just another version of the same character, then Isaac is easily covered as well:

Broke: Having Felix/Matthew replace Isaac's AT because they have similar abilities
Woke: Having Garet replace the AT due to all the abilities the AT showcases being ones he can learn

 

[WahHahaha]

.....you do remember he was revealed October 1st, right? That's quite literally promotion for Minecon.

Yes, and to capitalize on the hype they could have released him almost immediately after that. The Sakurai presents was on October 3rd which was the same day as Minecon, so you'd think they would release him on that day.

But that didn't happen...

 

[Shroob]

Yes, and to capitalize on the hype they could have released him almost immediately after that. The Sakurai presents was on October 3rd which was the same day as Minecon, so you'd think they would release him on that day.

But that didn't happen...

You keep trying to factor "hype" into everything, which is an imaginary interger.


If Nintendo wanted to capitalize off the hype, they wouldn't make us wait 1-2 weeks after a character's shown off to release them.



Sakurai name dropped Minecon, that's Minecon promotion, that's really THAT simple.

 

[ZelDan]

Broke: Having Felix/Matthew replace Isaac's AT because they have similar abilities
Woke: Having Garet replace the AT due to all the abilities the AT showcases being ones he can learn

I do recall Garet being able to use move, but could he learn lift, carry, and teleport as well? (now that I think about it could Isaac even use teleport himself? I believe that was Jupiter psynergy)

It's been years since I played GS so I don't completely remember this stuff honestly.

 

[Jondolio]

Genuine question
What's even the point of this discussion? What do the very specific circumstances of a past reveal have to do with CP11 at all?

 

[Shroob]

Genuine question
What's even the point of this discussion? What do the very specific circumstances of a past reveal have to do with CP11 at all?

Absolutely nothing.


The point is that people who think we're gonna be waiting until November or December for CP11, which would put us at like 160+ days for a single character, when the average is like, 85, are crazy.

 

[ForsakenM]

Anyway, no, they're not going to randomly make CP11 take an exponentially longer amount of time than normal.


Assuming that the Direct actually does fall on the 7th/8th, that's 100% in line with prior reveals, and is frankly "the average" of anywhere between 80-90 days. Steve is the absolute latest it got, and even then, Steve was held off to coincide with Minecon, nothing more to do.



Assuming they do show who CP11 is and don't pull a like "Tune in on X day for a Mr.Sakurai presents!", the character will be shown off, we'll get a date for the Mr.Sakurai presents, and the character will either drop the day of said presents, or a few days after.



I feel like people cling way too hard on the "December 31st" date, which was a placeholder.

To be completely fair, despite it making no sense for it to happen and not having COVID for any massive delays, FP1 didn't end until right before the deadline given. Thus, people suggesting it's possible that we wait until just before the deadline this time are understandable, though I personally believe CP11 is happening this month. However if we do wait until Dec I won't be surprised for my own reasons.

Btw, has anyone here talked Imran Khan or the recent datamine yet? This thread sometimes spans 50 pages in a short time, so I likely missed it and am wondering about how people feel about these recent developments.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I do recall Garet being able to use move, but could he learn lift, carry, and teleport as well? (now that I think about it could Isaac even use teleport himself? I believe that was Jupiter psynergy)

It's been years since I played GS so I don't completely remember this stuff honestly.

Lift, Pound, and Teleport involve items anyone can equip.

 

[ZelDan]

At worst we might see the character release in October, but the reveal and showcase will both be in September I would imagine (I think the release will likely be September too FWIW).

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Steve's Presentation on the 3rd, like, an hour before Minecon?

 

[Shroob]

To be completely fair, despite it making no sense for it to happen and not having COVID for any massive delays, FP1 didn't end until right before the deadline given. Thus, people suggesting it's possible that we wait until just before the deadline this time are understandable, though I personally believe CP11 is happening this month. However if we do wait until Dec I won't be surprised for my own reasons.

Btw, has anyone here talked Imran Khan or the recent datamine yet? This thread sometimes spans 50 pages in a short time, so I likely missed it and am wondering about how people feel about these recent developments.

That was 5(6) characters in one year, so that makes perfect sense. 1 character every 2.5 months more or less.


This is 6 characters in 2 years, and we already have 5 of them out. Making us wait 4 more months for 1 character when we're almost at 90 days since the last one is ridiculous.