Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Louie G.]

I'm baffled when I see people ascribe what is clearly a general hierarchical system solely to Sakurai seemingly finding the choices we've been given as the most interesting. Just a coincidence it aligns with the fact that it could mistaken for an intact and active hierarchy, then, is it?

It's not a super common viewpoint, but it's one so obtuse that it's memorable.

I feel like this gets construed in odd ways both directions. When there is a very clear, cemented hierarchy of characters it is typically followed and once that has been covered then we get into the weeds and explore supplementary characters. Really though, I'd argue Mario is the only series where we've actually gotten to this point - Pokemon / Fire Emblem are their own beasts and Zelda should have gotten there by now... but I digress.

As silly as it is to suggest that this is broken for certain franchises, I think there's a breaking point where I find it equally silly for people to cling onto it. Like Impa as I mentioned before, she's technically the next most important Zelda character, but she's so far behind the other three where it really wouldn't be a crime to throw in a Skull Kid or Midna instead. Or for Mario, where after Rosalina, Bowser Jr and a potted Plant all made it in first people are still insistent that Waluigi or Geno ought to wait their turn for Toad.

Regardless of my own personal opinions on those characters (it is pretty odd that Toad isn't here yet) I think once we've hit that sweet spot - like, the three or four most important characters, that's when Sakurai can just go for who he finds interesting. But there's no way we would have gotten the likes of Skull Kid before Ganondorf "just because", either. I dunno, I think you probably get what I mean.

 

[Ivander]

Second on that totem pole would be Demitri, but unfortunately I don't believe Midnight Bliss would fly in Smash.

I think Nintendo has already learned their lesson from this.

And it comes back around to this image:

But yeah, I'm pretty sure the reason why Midnight Bliss would not have the transformations is that they would have to make unique concept art and a model for each and every character. Like it's one easy thing to have some of their characters be transformed into an actual reference from their games, like Link as a girl and in his Desert Voe outfit or Cloud as "Miss Cloud" or Mr. Game & Watch as the woman from Oil Panic. But you also have to do concepts and models for characters like Dedede, Ridley, the Pokemon characters, and 60-70 other characters.
Then there's also the fact that they'll need permission from many of the owners of the characters. Like just because some of them may be okay with it doesn't mean all of them will be okay with it. And yeah, it's quite possible Nintendo doesn't want to open the can of worms again in regards to genderswapping concepts like what happened with Bowsette.
And any potential Midnight Bliss design can just as much erupt like it did with Bowsette. Like it's not like Midnight Bliss is not that much different from Rule 63 which doesn't trend much, but for every 10 or 20 Midnight Bliss designs, you're bound to get at least one Goeniko. Who is Goeniko? Look up Goenitz and SvC Chaos, then look up Goeniko and how she became an actual character due to her popularity.

All that aside, Midnight Bliss doesn't just refer to Demitri's move. It also refers to his true form that he uses for Midnight Bliss.

And it should be noted that Midnight Bliss has been used in other games without the genderswapping needed, like Project X Zone.

 

[CureParfait]

Who're you picking?

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My picks are Sora and Dixie Kong.

Shadower and Darkrai for me.

 

[2006ToyotaTacoma]

Who're you picking?

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My picks are Sora and Dixie Kong.

Amaterasu and Officer Howard.

 

[Deleted member]

Who're you picking?

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My picks are Sora and Dixie Kong.

I'm not looking for anyone in particular, so this what I'm going to do. I'm going to pick 6 first party characters I'd be happy with then roll a 6 sided die and that's who I'll put down. Then I'll do the same for a third party character.
For reference:
1 = Impa
2 = Toxicitry
3 = Dixie Kong
4 = Tetra (or Toon Zelda depending on how they label her)
5 = Dry Bowser
6 = Rillaboom

1 = Dr. Robotnik
2 = KOS-MOS
3 = Morrigan
4 = Master Chief
5 = Chrono
6 = Laharl

And, according to random.org, my choices are (insert drumroll here):
1st party: Rillaboom
3rd party: Chrono

 

[N3ON]

I feel like this gets construed in odd ways both directions. When there is a very clear, cemented hierarchy of characters it is typically followed and once that has been covered then we get into the weeds and explore supplementary characters. Really though, I'd argue Mario is the only series where we've actually gotten to this point - Pokemon / Fire Emblem are their own beasts and Zelda should have gotten there by now... but I digress.

As silly as it is to suggest that this is broken for certain franchises, I think there's a breaking point where I find it equally silly for people to cling onto it. Like Impa as I mentioned before, she's technically the next most important Zelda character, but she's so far behind the other three where it really wouldn't be a crime to throw in a Skull Kid or Midna instead. Or for Mario, where after Rosalina, Bowser Jr and a potted Plant all made it in first people are still insistent that Waluigi or Geno ought to wait their turn for Toad.

Regardless of my own personal opinions on those characters (it is pretty odd that Toad isn't here yet) I think once we've hit that sweet spot - like, the three or four most important characters, that's when Sakurai can just go for who he finds interesting. But there's no way we would have gotten the likes of Skull Kid before Ganondorf "just because", either. I dunno, I think you probably get what I mean.

Right, but, even when you get past the indisputable series peaks, there is still a hierarchy isn't there? It's just each bracket gets more broad as you descend, like a pyramid. If it's not Impa, maybe it'd be Skull Kid or Midna. Maybe it's Tingle. But it's not Veran. It's not Zant. It's not Medli. Who comes after Sonic? Maybe it's Tails, maybe it's Eggman, maybe it's Shadow or Knuckles. But it's not Vector.

I mean it's not an exact science; what works for one series may not work for another. There may be a surprise here and there along the way. And it doesn't 100% boil down to pure series importance either because popularity is a factor. But clearly there is a framework here around which the trend exists.

 

[ahemtoday]

While we're on the subject of hierarchies, I'd like to talk about a character whose hierarchical position I find interesting: Ridley. If you look at any individual Metroid game, Ridley is almost never at the top. I mean, the top is Samus, because she's the main character, but the top of the pile of every other character. My point is, Ridley is basically always playing second fiddle to the main villain of each game, be that Mother Brain, Metroid Prime, Dark Samus, the SA-X, or... whoever the big bad of Other M was supposed to be. His only position as actual final boss is him getting retconned into Metroid 2.

But the key word there is "always". If you look at the series, Ridley is at least tied for the most prominent villain, and it's because he's always second fiddle to the revolving door of main villains. Everyone else is getting 1st place in one Mario Kart race and last in the rest, and Ridley's racking up points by getting 2nd in all of them.

You forgot to mention an exception to the hierarchy rule, where Min Min got in before Spring Man, the mascot and shoto of ARMS. Though maybe ARMS could end up creating its own hierarchy, where in other crossover games with ARMS characters, Min Min has to get in first?

It's a little too early to call, but I could see Min Min becoming the Morrigan of ARMS. definitely.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

I would argue that Ridley is the “main” villain of Metroid without always being the final boss because, other than Metroid II, conflict always happens because of Space Pirates of which Ridley is the leader.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Splatoon 3 marketing is wild.

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[Perkilator]

Who're you picking?

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My picks are Sora and Dixie Kong.

Crash Bandicoot and Bandana Waddle Dee

 

[Shadowvegeta]

Who're you picking?

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My picks are Sora and Dixie Kong.

Agumon and Giovanni

 

[7NATOR]

When do you guys think CP11 will release?

 

[Perkilator]

When do you guys think CP11 will release?

We're not even at CP10 yet, let's hold our horses.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

When do you guys think CP11 will release?

I'm guessing September. Even if it gets revealed at E3, its easy to imagine it airing close to the Fall Direct, with the latter likely announcing the formal date of the Sakurai presents. Every formal Nintendo Direct since March 2018 has had Smash news, and it feels fitting for it to finally conclude then.

 

[Technomage]

When do you guys think CP11 will release?

We're not even at CP10 yet, let's hold our horses.

While we're not even at CP 10 yet, I do theorize that CP 11 will release either by the end of Summer or early Fall; we certainly won't have to wait until Christmas (which was actually an idea I once proposed).

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

CP11 screams Fall to me. I'm thinking September-November for the possible time period. Reveal and release overall. I don't think a bonus character is coming, nor do I think E3 will get two characters this time. Usually when it happened there was a lot of time and a lot of reveals to do anyway. This is not the case for Pass 2.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

When do you guys think CP11 will release?

August, I’m still sticking by Calendar Theory

 

[Merengue]

Who're you picking?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

My picks are Sora and Dixie Kong.

E3 Reveal: Reimu Hakurei

Final Reveal: Porky Minch from Earth Bound including a WoL sequel featuring him as the main villain.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

Who're you picking?

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My picks are Sora and Dixie Kong.

My picks for third party? I could drone ON AND ON about who I want. But my main picks are Sakura Kasugano, Mega Man Zero, or Lilith. If we get anyone else though, I'm cool with that.

First party? Maybe Dark Meta Knight since Star Allies gave Meta Knight's Mirror World counterpart an ENTIRELY NEW MOVESET so that he's not just a Meta Knight clone.

 

[FJA147]

My thoughts a promotional first party that is going to piss people off and a underwhelming third party that will not fill people expectations. In Smash 4- Corrin and Bayonetta
FP1- Terry and Byleth, but I think that Terry was well received but he was more of an unknown third party to a good amount of people

 

[SharkLord]

My thoughts a promotional first party that is going to piss people off and a underwhelming third party that will not fill people expectations. In Smash 4- Corrin and Bayonetta
FP1- Terry and Byleth, but I think that Terry was well received but he was more of an unknown third party to a good amount of people

I dunno, wasn't Bayo pretty well-received until everyone saw how busted she was? From what I can gather Nintendo might've twisted somethings in her favor, but if she was the highest-ranking in Europe (And maybe top five in the US, but I don't really remember), she must've done at least decently well.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Well, they are if you want to convince anyone who doesn't already share your opinions of anything.

Why would you want that?

What do you "win" if you convince some message board randos of your opinion?

Who're you picking?

Ryu Hayabusa and King Hippo.

other than Metroid II, conflict always happens because of Space Pirates of which Ridley is the leader.

Until the remake...

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I dunno, wasn't Bayo pretty well-received until everyone saw how busted she was? From what I can gather Nintendo might've twisted somethings in her favor, but if she was the highest-ranking in Europe (And maybe top five in the US, but I don't really remember), she must've done at least decently well.

I recall the reaction being fairly positive. I think Corrin ended up being unintentional boost to Bayo in that sense actually; after the groans and eye rolls by many to another FE character, getting a fairly cool and unexpected fighter like the latter made her seem much more special.

 

[Perkilator]

I recall the reaction being fairly positive. I think Corrin ended up being unintentional boost to Bayo in that sense actually; after the groans and eye rolls by many to another FE character, getting a fairly cool and unexpected fighter like the latter made her seem much more special.

You think in the former's case, reception would be even slightly more positive if it was Azura instead of Corrin? I know that's what I wish it was if only because she'd be way more unique

 

[N3ON]

When do you guys think CP11 will release?

Probably September. But there's enough buffer room that August and October aren't unfathomable either.

August, I’m still sticking by Calendar Theory

Becomes pretty questionable when you consider that Steve was lined up to release in September. They wouldn't reorganize their schedule for the sake of some trivial quota of every month having something.

I dunno, wasn't Bayo pretty well-received until everyone saw how busted she was? From what I can gather Nintendo might've twisted somethings in her favor, but if she was the highest-ranking in Europe (And maybe top five in the US, but I don't really remember), she must've done at least decently well.

Not really. Bayo was always a divisive character, then being touted as the ballot winner rubbed people the wrong way, and being tied together with Corrin compounded the negativity and brought her down as well. It wasn't unilaterally negative but it was probably more negative than any of the earlier five.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

You think in the former's case, reception would be even slightly more positive if it was Azura instead of Corrin? I know that's what I wish it was if only because she'd be way more unique

Perhaps among Fire Emblem fans, but realistically those that tend to be apathetic/antipathetic towards FE (ie the ones not inclined to be thrilled at their Smash inclusions) are likely not really going to make a lot of distinctions between the actual nuanced differences with characters. Even Lyn showing up as a fighter would get some backalsh, and she's among the more liked FE characters among casuals/non-fans just based on her aesthetic design if nothing else.

 

[SKX31]

I dunno, wasn't Bayo pretty well-received until everyone saw how busted she was? From what I can gather Nintendo might've twisted somethings in her favor, but if she was the highest-ranking in Europe (And maybe top five in the US, but I don't really remember), she must've done at least decently well.

IIRC she was kinda well-recieved initially as you said - the only mark against her was that she wasn't a Ballot winner a lot of people expected, whereas someone like or might've been. This video (volume warning) encapsulate personalities' and players' reactions pretty well:

And yeah, opinions only really started to turn post-release: people at the time didn't know that Sakurai had moved on to Ultimate, but the effects of that move were keenly felt since several aspects were crazily overtuned.* The same was for and yes, , whose Counter Surge could at release OHKO charged Smash attacks and whose Pin was a lot safer.

*(Sidenote: certain aspects of don't need repeating, but one aspect that often goes un-mentioned was that Witch Twist (Up B) not only reached higher than 's does - meaning that 4 Bayo could reach the top blastzone a lot easier - it also had larger hitboxes and was faster, meaning it was even more difficult to react to.)

You think in the former's case, reception would be even slightly more positive if it was Azura instead of Corrin? I know that's what I wish it was if only because she'd be way more unique

I'm willing to say yes, but barely. She'd still get a lot of negative emotions thrown her way due to the timing of Fates' release and how many Fire Emblem characters had appeared in relatively rapid succession, but would perhaps get less flack thanks to her being a more defined character and probably not having a Counter (which might be a minor factor all things considered).

 

[AreJay25]

I will never not laugh at the fact that after Bayo's release, there was a patch specifically made to nerf her and only her, and she was still busted as **** lmao

We had to wait 2 whole years for her to actually feel normalized and it was in an entirely different game

 

[cothero]

delete it.

 

[SharkLord]

Character Exploration Thread - Day 79: Axel Stone (Streets of Rage)

Welcome to the Character Exploration Thread! Here, we cycle through a variety of topics - Mainly the fighters - That don't get enough attention. Rather than tirelessly reiterating the same old debates of likelihood on a loop, this thread is for chill vibe time where we discuss who the characters...

smashboards.com

And we have liftoff. Current course of action is solidifying the rules and seeing how we should go about the first couple submissions.

 

[N3ON]

I'm wondering who was actually there when it happened, among the discord, and who is just speaking from what they can piece together.

People were lead to believe there was a ballot winner coming, do you think they wanted it to end on two unexpected fighters? Some people got the wrong idea that with Ryu and Cloud they were just ramping up.

The mob wanted K. Rool or Isaac. Shovel Knight or Inkling or Snake. Even Wolf. Maybe Banjo. Bayonetta... not quite so much. If you're going to go off reaction videos and the strange qualifications Nintendo propped Bayo up with, you're not getting the full picture.

People also say Cloud was welcomed with open arms. Not so much. He was also very divisive. People got over that one quickly, but history doesn't seem to remember that he was by far the most polarizing character of the DLC until the next two.

Bayo, at the best of times, was another divisive pick. Beforehand, a lot of people thought she didn't fit. She also had the misfortune of being last, and facing all that entails. She also had the misfortune of being paired with Corrin. She also had the misfortune of being the conclusion to most of a year of expecting a fanbase favourite. It wasn't all negative, and I don't want to paint that picture, but it certainly wasn't overly positive either. Like I said, the five that preceded the final presentation were all better received, Cloud included. It was very mixed, and there was a lot of negativity. And unlike Cloud, that negativity only grew when people got their hands on her.

 

[Technomage]

I will never not laugh at the fact that after Bayo's release, there was a patch specifically made to nerf her and only her, and she was still busted as **** lmao

We had to wait 2 whole years for her to actually feel normalized and it was in an entirely different game

And that brings me to this funny video:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

Though who's the guy whose face was photoshopped onto Hans Moleman's body?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Maybe I just wasn't as deeply in the Smash scene, but I just don't simply recall that much overt dislike or excess controversy at Bayo's reveal. It could be that I'm grading on a curve and that after the likes of the response to Byleth or the November 2018 Smash Direct, any grumbling during that time just seems mild by comparison.

I think part of it is that the expectations just didn't seem as raised in the Smash 4 era and thus the fallout (either positive or negative) weren't as notable to boot.

 

[N3ON]

Maybe I just wasn't as deeply in the Smash scene, but I just don't simply recall that much overt dislike or excess controversy at Bayo's reveal. It could be that I'm grading on a curve and that after the likes of the response to Byleth or the November 2018 Smash Direct, any grumbling during that time just seems mild by comparison.

I think part of it is that the expectations just didn't seem as raised in the Smash 4 era and thus the fallout (either positive or negative) weren't as notable to boot.

It's hard to grade the volume of similar events years apart when you're relying on memory and other non-empirical measures. I remember there being a lot of negativity around ROB as well, but now that seems quaint and hard to quantify. I wouldn't be able to stack it up next to Corrin or Byleth, the events were too far apart. I just know that these characters all precipitated a notable amount of negativity.

The list is not exhaustive, but in it I would also include Bayo. Not to the same extent as the aforementioned, but I believe she has a place among it as well. Keep in mind that the level of negativity that surrounded Corrin would've been mitigated had it been offset from a great deal of positivity from Bayo. Look at WFT being offset by Villager and Mega Man. Look at no one caring about Chrom because he was sandwiched in between Castlevania and K. Rool. I mean, even Banjo cushioned Hero. But the story isn't that people shrugged at Corrin and were at least happy about Bayo.

I have no "were you mad about Bayo" poll to link to, but I do remember what transpired, and it was very mixed. There is a reason people thought the ballot was rigged for the next several years. I still can't believe they were right, but that's neither here nor there.

 

[Cosmic77]

Maybe I just wasn't as deeply in the Smash scene, but I just don't simply recall that much overt dislike or excess controversy at Bayo's reveal. It could be that I'm grading on a curve and that after the likes of the response to Byleth or the November 2018 Smash Direct, any grumbling during that time just seems mild by comparison.

I think part of it is that the expectations just didn't seem as raised in the Smash 4 era and thus the fallout (either positive or negative) weren't as notable to boot.

There was definitely some mixed opinions that day. People had all of the top contenders listed in their heads, and Bayo was nowhere near K. Rool, Banjo, and a few others.

Corrin took more of the hate though. Wasn't a lot of people jumping for joy considering how the game hadn't even come out yet overseas. A lot of people took it as unwanted promotional material for Fates.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

I remember there were people calling Sakurai "the new George Lucas" and saying it was hard to love Europe anymore because it was their "fault" after BayoCorrin's reveal.

Smash speculation hasn't really changed much over the years. That poor CP11 character.

 

[SKX31]

And that brings me to this funny video:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

Though who's the guy whose face was photoshopped onto Hans Moleman's body?

As someone who saw that live (aside from "Whoa there commentators' curse!"): Yeeeaah that moment shown in the vid highlighted some things that 4's balance patch didn't touch, such as Witch Twist getting up there. I'm pretty convinced that Sakurai took the nerfhammer to her after that match because the beatdown was vicious.

And the guy photoshopped onto Moleman's head? Puretty sure that's MKLeo, who was proficient at and used her as a secondary. While Plup, who's a Melee player, certainly did not have a lot of time to practice at all. So it's no surprise that Leo was able to perform that touch-of-death combo in front of Sakurai's eyes.

Sidenote: Although now Plup's a Mega Man / Ridley player in Ultimate, so guess he took a liking to the character after all.

Maybe I just wasn't as deeply in the Smash scene, but I just don't simply recall that much overt dislike or excess controversy at Bayo's reveal. It could be that I'm grading on a curve and that after the likes of the response to Byleth or the November 2018 Smash Direct, any grumbling during that time just seems mild by comparison.

I think part of it is that the expectations just didn't seem as raised in the Smash 4 era and thus the fallout (either positive or negative) weren't as notable to boot.

It's hard to grade the volume of similar events years apart when you're relying on memory and other non-empirical measures. I remember there being a lot of negativity around ROB as well, but now that seems quaint and hard to quantify. I wouldn't be able to stack it up next to Corrin or Byleth, the events were too far apart. I just know that these characters all precipitated a notable amount of negativity.

The list is not exhaustive, but in it I would also include Bayo. Not to the same extent as the aforementioned, but I believe she has a place among it as well. Keep in mind that the level of negativity that surrounded Corrin would've been mitigated had it been offset from a great deal of positivity from Bayo. Look at WFT being offset by Villager and Mega Man. Look at no one caring about Chrom because he was sandwiched in between Castlevania and K. Rool. I mean, even Banjo cushioned Hero. But the story isn't that people shrugged at Corrin and were at least happy about Bayo.

I have no "were you mad about Bayo" poll to link to, but I do remember what transpired, and it was very mixed. There is a reason people thought the ballot was rigged for the next several years. I still can't believe they were right, but that's neither here nor there.

I can't recall that much dislike either, although that might be down to me focusing a lot more on the competitive side of things - and I was practically unaware of speculation at the time. TBF I could see a lot of those invested in speculation at the time look at it from a more negative perspective. That said, I can definetely say that there were quite a lot of positive reactions that day as well.

Then again, I'm pretty wary of extrapolating either the competitive or speculation side to other segments of the Smash fanbase who are not invested in either. Partly because a lot of casual Smash fans aren't going to be as invested in who's the next Smash character or how they'll play (albeit they might also have their own wishes), but also since the Smash fanbase is relatively disconnected from each other as is.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

It's hard to grade the volume of similar events years apart when you're relying on memory and other non-empirical measures. I remember there being a lot of negativity around ROB as well, but now that seems quaint and hard to quantify. I wouldn't be able to stack it up next to Corrin or Byleth, the events were too far apart. I just know that these characters all precipitated a notable amount of negativity.

The list is not exhaustive, but in it I would also include Bayo. Not to the same extent as the aforementioned, but I believe she has a place among it as well. Keep in mind that the level of negativity that surrounded Corrin would've been mitigated had it been offset from a great deal of positivity from Bayo. Look at WFT being offset by Villager and Mega Man. Look at no one caring about Chrom because he was sandwiched in between Castlevania and K. Rool. I mean, even Banjo cushioned Hero. But the story isn't that people shrugged at Corrin and were at least happy about Bayo.

I have no "were you mad about Bayo" poll to link to, but I do remember what transpired, and it was very mixed. There is a reason people thought the ballot was rigged for the next several years. I still can't believe they were right, but that's neither here nor there.

It doesn’t help that people can recall the past in a way it never happened which is how you get people saying that Krystal was far more requested for Brawl than Wolf ever was when that simply wasn’t true.

 

[N3ON]

It doesn’t help that people can recall the past in a way it never happened which is how you get people saying that Krystal was far more requested for Brawl than Wolf ever was when that simply wasn’t true.

Maybe I'm an unreliable narrator... but most of the people who appear to disagree don't seem to have actually been part of the speculation scene at the time.

Also, those polls aren't going to be worth much when the most number of votes a character got is 69. That's a pretty small sample. That said, that top 11 seems about right insofar as the members if not the ranking.

I can't recall that much dislike either, although that might be down to me focusing a lot more on the competitive side of things - and I was practically unaware of speculation at the time. TBF I could see a lot of those invested in speculation at the time look at it from a more negative perspective. That said, I can definetely say that there were quite a lot of positive reactions that day as well.

Then again, I'm pretty wary of extrapolating either the competitive or speculation side to other segments of the Smash fanbase who are not invested in either. Partly because a lot of casual Smash fans aren't going to be as invested in who's the next Smash character or how they'll play (albeit they might also have their own wishes), but also since the Smash fanbase is relatively disconnected from each other as is.

Perhaps I should expound that I wasn't trying to speak on the competitive or casual scene. Both seem less invested in who shows up, and that will generally lend to lower highs and higher lows when it comes to reactions, bar someone getting their favourite character or something.

I was just speaking on this side of the community. I mean, I'm sure there were many casual fans who thought getting another FE character was lame but got over it just about as soon as they learned about it in the first place. Those poor fools, unbothered by meaningless things.

 

[ZelDan]

I remember there being some negativity towards Bayonetta after her reveal and before people started playing as her. I don't remember it being THAT strong or really overpowering the positivity but the negativity was definitely there atleast.