There is a lot to be said from this detailed post. As for you saying that there are only two more fighters, I strongly feel the same (I believe the last two are going to be Incineroar and Ken). DLC is going to be very interesting, and likely more expansive than it was for Smash 4.
As with yourself, the existence of Isabelle as a semi-clone was surprising to me because we have not have a semi-clone newcomer since 2008. It bears good news for someone like Dixie Kong, whom while she has a lot of physiological similarities to Diddy Kong, a lot of her abilities and what she is known for are quite different (namely her pretensile hair and ability to utilize flight/gliding from it). That being said, I am personally pessimistic on Dixie Kong's prospects (I only expect two more characters for the base roster, and competition for DLC slots will be extremely fierce).
Your analogy of Isabelle to Ashley is on-point, but Isabelle finds a lot more of her popularity outside of those who write about Smash Bros. online. She was chosen because she is such an incredible icon, probably the biggest character to emerge from an established franchise this decade (Bandanna Dee, while a very old character in actuality, has experienced a similar rise in promotion of the course of this decade too).
Isabelle compared to the echoes announced for this game (Daisy, Richter, Chrom, and of course Dark Samus) is a far, far bigger name for her own franchise, and could at the present be by many to be "the face" of Animal Crossing. The others are major or very notable characters in their own series, but Isabelle is the only one that has been elevated to becoming a critical character.
You absolutely possess the right attitude about Dark Samus getting in. There is probably only one more echo fighter left to be announced (Ken), and of the five, Dark Samus managed to be one of them. This is absolutely incredible. Assuming Ken is all that is left, she managed to beat out the likes of Shadow, Octoling, Impa, Funky Kong, and possibly Dixie Kong (Dixie could technically work as an echo if they gave her a different recovery).
This is a good point. A lot of Villager's moveset was not really appropriate for someone like Isabelle. This was likely another reason why Isabelle was developed into a semi-clone and not just an echo fighter. Contrast that with Daisy, Richter, Dark Samus, and Chrom where a lot of their character is captured through their unique animations (idle stances, how they move, their taunts), but their actual attacks are not necessarily out of character (even though Dark Samus could definitely be an entirely unique fighter).
Dark Samus's animations allow the character to be true to herself without having to devote additional time and resources to balancing yet another character on the roster. Others have said how cool Dark Samus seems despite her being simply an echo fighter.
You have the right attitude. Dark Samus more or less won the lottery as far as getting into Smash Bros. is concerned.
I think we'll get two more full newcomers and the other newcomer might be any of the currently popular picks, but we live in a different world after the Isabelle announcement. Before, the pattern was obviously based on the ballot, and I figured that any announcements following the carpet bombshelling of Ridley, Simon, and K. Rool had to be on par in some way. Unless Isabelle was somehow hugely popular in the ballot, then it appears she was just picked for some more Animal Crossing love, since it is one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, yet it only has one character. My bet for the newcomers are Skull Kid and Geno, but we'll see.
The fact that she's a semi-clone is also bizarre. It might just be a sign of how tight the cast is if they couldn't give her a 100% unique moveset. I'd like to see Dixie Kong like this, too, if only so Metroid and DK can both have 4 reps like the deserve. I don't even like the Donkey Kong series, but I want to see it done justice. But the possibilities are pretty narrow at this point, so it might not happen anytime soon.
I initially thought the backlash for Isabelle would be much more severe. However, with all the hilarious artwork we've seen over the past week, it's evident that she's gone over well. Particularly, I happened to have class right as the Direct started, so I had to watch it over an hour after it aired. A female friend of mine told me that she and a Discord server of mostly other girls (for a browser game about breeding and dressing up dragons--not a very hardcore game) were freaking out over the new character. She hyped it up so much. Then when I finally sat down and watched the Direct, I was like "Really?" But Animal Crossing is really popular with girls, as it's somewhat of a casual game, so it seems that Isabelle really resonated with the female demographic. Not that all female gamers are casual, of course (this friend of mine plays plenty of hardcore titles as well), but I believe Sakurai has said in the past that he often considers the female audience with some of his decisions, and this might reflect that. Isabelle was less for us people getting excited over Ridley, K. Rool, and Dark Samus, and more for people like them.
The only Animal Crossing characters who are broadly recognized and popular are Tom Nook and K.K. Slider. They both might've worked as fighters, too (K.K. Slider even got a Mii costume), but Isabelle has become much more prominent than either of them in recent games. She also has a different appeal, as she's kind of a cutesy secretary, which is what's led to all the great art people have been putting out. And that's what I enjoy most about newcomers even if I don't like to play as them; they add another dimension of personality to the game that wasn't there before. So far, most newcomers have added some extra color to the game that wasn't there before.
Yeah, I'm a beggar, so I can't be a chooser. My two most wanted characters were one character who had one great but not too commercially successful GameCube game and a slew of misguided but above-average handheld games, and a character who's significant in two games from 2004 and 2007 but doesn't have too much screentime and those games are often overshadowed by their predecessors in a franchise that's not broadly popular to begin with. That's why when Sakurai said "Both fighters have been highly requested," I have a hard time believing it. He said in his column that it was a popular request in the West, but this thread is only 7 pages long with a handful of participants, and I doubt more than one or two other people here besides myself might have voted for Dark Samus in the ballot. So I'm just counting my blessings, and Dark Samus's model and animations certainly make me feel blessed enough.
I don't think Isabelle entering as a new character instead of Dark Samus is justifiable by popularity at all.... everybody is forgetting that ever since Melee, the series has been putting time and resources in obscure characters nonstop. Ice Climbers? Mr. Game & Watch? Marth and Roy didn't even have a game outside of Japan! Then that Pit guy came by? ROB? Wtf is a ROB? Now we have that Richer, R-Ricther, Ri─ where the heck is Alucard???!!11
Popularity is no excuse. Either way I am not going to complain, it just hurt a little bit to see they putting more time and resources into a clear Villager-like character than in a completely original character.
The problem is that Smash releases are outpaced by all of Nintendo's other series. Smash 64 and Melee came out just a couple years apart, and only had to focus on three generations of systems (NES, SNES, and N64). The only characters at that time (2001) I'd argue are missing are characters like Ridley, K. Rool, Dedede and Meta Knight, Diddy Kong, and Wario. The landscape was much smaller, so they could get away with adding weird characters like Game & Watch and Ice Climbers.
Brawl came out 7 years after Melee; that's 7 years of new games for all these different series. Between Melee and Brawl's releases, the
entire Metroid Prime trilogy was released, along with dozens of other games, of course. Smash 4 came out over 6 years after that. Those are such long periods of time that both of those games had to skip entire Pokémon generations (Gen III and Gen V), since by the time those Smash titles released, a newer one had already come out. Smash just can't keep up with the rest of the gaming sphere.
If Smash games came out more frequently, or they spent less time developing each individual character, then they wouldn't have to worry about it. But it's the quality over quantity approach to Smash that makes it so fantastic. If that care and attention weren't given, it'd just be like one of those cheap Cartoon Network imitators that just feel cheap. So there's no real solution to the problem, unfortunately. It's just the way things are.
There's one glaring issue with the moveset I notice here, and that's a lack of good KO options. How will she get them without edgeguards, bair fishing or smash reads/punishes? The Charge Shot as it is is too integral unless you overhaul her normals too.
Well, not every character's special moves are kill moves, but her Up-B would definitely be a kill-move, and the Side-B might have some kill move potential. The fully-charghed Neutral-B would also be a kill move at close ranges, like a shotgun, whereas at further distances it wouldn't have as much knockback or damage. I'm not too imaginative about normal attacks, unfortunately.
I'm no Smash balance expert, though. This is why making characters in Smash is harder than people make it out to be. It's easy to draw up a moveset and go "Yeah, put that in," but to actually design something that's both fun and balanced is very difficult. Sakurai puts a lot more thought into characters' movesets than we'd think.