DGames Summer Mafia Bash - Day 2 Begins. Deadline Day 2 begins - Deadline 8:00 A.M. CST Monday 6/24

[Spak]

ranmaru It looks like in the post you referenced for Rockin's read list where you took issue with him not changing off of JTB to a scumlean, he actually forgot to put JTB on the list (so I'm not sure he didn't think JTB was scummy). I have no clue how his playstyle right now matches up with how he normally plays (since I've never played anything but EIMM with him), but I agree that he was a little shifty about the Doop wagon. I also see the point about him possibly formulate reads based on what he wants to see rather than what he's observing (from him ignoring your post). It definitely makes him look a little suspicious, but I don't think it's enough to say he's scum for sure.

Also, JTB is pretty null in my book. He's been laying low when he hasn't been called out (which could just be because he's getting married soon), but has still had some good stuff. The misreading of his vig claim was his main point against him in my book.

 

[Spak]

aight go ahead

you said you were coming back later tonight, right? if so, when? i ask cuz i wanna have some real time interaction

Yeah, I'll be on after 8-ish.

 

[ranmaru]

As I told Gorf, Lore caught that he stated JTB was null, while he was voting him. Yet never moved to Doop, his scumlean. He stayed on a null.

 

[Spak]

As I told Gorf, Lore caught that he stated JTB was null, while he was voting him. Yet never moved to Doop, his scumlean. He stayed on a null.

Do we have a post number for that? I'd wanna see where the null read falls on the timeline of events.

Also, do we have a recent votecount?

 

[ranmaru]

JTB is null currently.

and yeah, I feel his gut was accurate (or at least, I understood what he meant by it bothering him). Initially, when I first read through JTB's post before and after FF's post, I didn't see anything wrong. After rereading them, I can see some posts and statements that bothered him specifically. However, because it was mostly a gut read, I felt it wasn't enough justification for a vote.

 

[ranmaru]

Is nabe going to be replaced as well?

 

[ranmaru]

Vote Count 8:00 AM 6/19 Edition

Lore (3): Gorf, Ryker, Kary,
Rockin (4): Ranmaru, Lore, Pythag, Tom
JTB(1): Mac
Frozen Flame(1): JTB
Ranmaru(1): Rockin

Not Voting(4): Spak, Nabe, FrozenFlame, Utopian Poyzin

With 14 alive, it takes 8 for majority.

 

[Lore]

For even further context, Rockin put in this read list while the vote was still on JTB, his null read. He later clarified and added JTB to his null while still keeping his vote on JTB until the end of the Day. While Doop is the stand-out omission from his vote, he had a second player, JeXs as scum lean as well.

So that's two scum lean players, but he kept his vote on JTB, his null read. He even came out and talked about his JTB null read further but still kept his vote on him instead of the two Scum leans.

So Gorf (and Ryker) you guys wanted to know of my reads, so here they are


[townlean]

Gorf

[Null to slightly town]

Macman
Ryker
Marshy
Tom
Ranmaru

[Null]

KevinM
Kary
Pythag
Frozenflame
UP
Lore


[Scum Lean]

Jex
Doop

So the people in the 'Null to slightly town' have shown some townie actions and statements, but i'm not confident enough to put them in town leans cause I'm currently having a hard time reading them. Ranmaru I can read a bit better, but i'm not confident enough to call it a townlean due to the gut mostly thinking he's town.

All those there in the null are a bit too big for my liking, and would like to know more about them as far as what they're thinking.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

To be fair, he was the one who caught that Rockin was null on JTB while voting him in the same page as Doop wagon grew. I totally missed that.

do you not think rockins response about why was reasonable? ive got a slight scumlean on him and i did

I wouldn't make a soap opera. So far in Mafia Sleep Over 3, we lynched him for sitting on his laurels. (he was scum) He was more like how Rockin is here. His tone is different there. He was posting in a manner that doesn't step on toes. Here, he seemed excited to play overall, and had more of a direction than in the other game. One thing that made me say that I felt you and I may have been wrong on him is his connections he was drawing out of no where between Up rockin and pythag. I know that is exactly what I have done much earlier in my career as town. I also don't agree with picking on weak players as a scum tell from his slot. I want to re-read your case though and try to solidify my read on him. But right now it is leaning null-town. **** is this a soap opera in your eyes? ****. (Sorry Lore I read it already but I have a bad past too don't worry)

youve made at least three soap operas so far and i just dont want you to make another one for no reason. and fwiw its not a soap opera even if i disagree with things, its a soap opera when you try and stage this dramatic process and use posts people have made to justify the scenario because confirmation bias tells you its right.

idgaf about the comparing meta (and neither should you since it was years ago). his direction here was set on scumreading poyzin based on developments he was making in real time instead of catching up with the thread and drawing conclusions on reads on the overall landscape. if a vig shot him N1 and he was scum, the interactions he made D1 would be completely useless because outside of his poyzin push, he basically did nothing aside from soft defend doop till the end for a bad reason (which, for someone who cares about doop connections, im surprised holds no weight for you). read my post again and see how incongruent his posts before voting poyzin and after reading poyzin are, and note that he sidesteps actually catching up and surveying the landscape or the popular wagons that came up (aside from doop, which again, he soft defended against).

the drawing out of the connections thing was another ****ing confirmation bias filled soap opera. if you really want after the game i can show you how incredibly easy it is to make one and all you have to do is show people you are convinced of it in order to make people look away from you and put you on the backburner as scum. its so easy and isnt really content. notice how, in the beginning, the pythag+rockin portion had ZERO independent tells attached to them in order to justify their existing in that web. thats because he didnt scumread them, he just attached them to doop and poyzin.

finally, what do you mean by "I also don't agree with picking on weak players as a scum tell from his slot?"

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Yeah, I'll be on after 8-ish.

do me a solid and, before you catch up, ping me and tell me youre here. ill check in around the 8ish area if i wind up being free then (i should be).

 

[Spak]

He also said that he didn't think the gut vote on JTB was justified (unless he was talking about FF voting for JTB, which I don't have time to go back and check at the moment; English is weird lol), so there's a possibility that he forgot who he was voting for. I agree that it's still suspicious that he didn't vote for a scumlean even if he didn't realize he was still voting JTB, though. Seems like he didn't have any reason to hold onto his vote.

OK, I'll move him to a slight scum lean; his behavior end D1 is looking kinda sketch in retrospect.

 

[Spak]

Thanks for the list, Ran! I'll do a:

Vote: Lore

And go back to work. Be back in a third of a day lol.

 

[ranmaru]

I didn't think it was reasonable, no. Can you explain why you thought so?

You have a point with him catching up. I did have a concern with that. I just took it as him being excited. Seeing as how he says the meta is outdated I will throw that out, and the tone as I am not sure how his tone has changed over the years. You also have a point with him attaching them without individual actions. Kary said he is only looking at slots smaller than him, but I don't think it is a scum tell in his case. I am also not sure how accurate that tell is, as people use it on me when I am town. Especially in early game. So I don't agree with it. Now the reason why him defending Doop heavily doesn't weigh too much for me, is I look for subtle ignorance of Doop rather than outright arguing. I think scum would be aware of Doop's poor play, so I would think defending his slot would not be smart. I would think ignoring it or bussing would be much better for scum. Not totally ruling it out, but not the first thing I look into. I will look at your case again though.

Lore I know you said you don't want to repeat anything, but I do want to hear your explanation for some of the points I agree with.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

to touch on the D1 rockin jtb vote business:

before my #1299, there was essentially zero steam on jex or doop, rockins scumleans, and it was ~48 hours till deadline. they each had one vote on them, pythag and kary respectively, and neither of those are very active wagon pushers (and neither is rockin). from that light, its reasonable not to put your vote there if the deadline is near and you think they wont catch steam. my #1299 had my vote on doop and then immediately ran and marshy followed. at 12:42, after my #1299, rockin responds to ruy mentioning replacing jex asking about nabe being replaced too, so its not unreasonable to believe he just saw that and dropped a quick ask about that situation. at 3:14, doop votes himself and peaces out. rockin doesnt even make it back to the thread before it closes.

the thread was supposed to have two more days till the deadline. its useless to speculate about whether or not rockin would vote doop after ran, marshy and i put votes on doop, but if it was just us three, thatd be a 4 v 6 wagon that rockin would be able to make 5 v 5, which would put them both at l-4. but we never got that because the Day suddenly ended. and his explanation:

We were close to deadline, and I wanted to make sure we at least get a lynch out instead of a possible no lynch situation (I seen that happen from time to time in previous games close to deadline). Doop voted on himself and steam was picking up on votes, so I was 'stuck' there on JTB (cause again, I didn't know what the game state was on whether we were going to call it or not). It was an awkward situation.

matches the turnout of events.

so in the end, no, i dont think that turn of events incriminates rockin via association with doop. personally im more interested in why his vote was on jtb at all when he was null, regardless of his scumlean on doop. rockin kept his null read at l-3 with (at the time) more than 48 hours left in the Day instead of just unvoting and seeing what he wanted to do with it. to me, thats a pretty hard connection on a scum!jtb flip, possibly having interest in being on his wagon despite him being null. but thats a whole other dive to make.

 

[Lore]

Will respond in a bit Ran, got suddenly busy. Just popping in for a sec:

so in the end, no, i dont think that turn of events incriminates rockin via association with doop. personally im more interested in why his vote was on jtb at all when he was null, regardless of his scumlean on doop. rockin kept his null read at l-3 with (at the time) more than 48 hours left in the Day instead of just unvoting and seeing what he wanted to do with it. to me, thats a pretty hard connection on a scum!jtb flip, possibly having interest in being on his wagon despite him being null. but thats a whole other dive to make.

This is literally the overall point I've been making, it's just strengthened imo by it being Doop-involved.

 

[Lore]

EBWOP: Should add that I mean only the bolded and underlined portion.

 

[ranmaru]

He states he didn't know whether they were going to call it or not and I do not find that believable. (Because Marshy was the one suggesting ryu calls it but that doesn't imply it might happen) He was in thread earlier, I don't I can't verify if he saw the wagon or not. All we do know, is that he was present before and after the wagon. A quick skim and you can see wagon growth on Doop. Plus you have been pushing Doop that day so I think that invalidates your point that people would not think the wagon would gain steam. I think we should not discount Rockin nor Ryker at that stage.

 

[ranmaru]

Basically I think the reasoning for not posting is very weak. He seems to be the only one that assumed the game was done with and so neglected to post. So, he is stating he was around the time posted that message.

 

[ranmaru]

ya

if theres too many replacements needed might b best to just call it. sucks but **** happens

This is what Rockin is referring to.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Kary said he is only looking at slots smaller than him, but I don't think it is a scum tell in his case. I am also not sure how accurate that tell is, as people use it on me when I am town. Especially in early game. So I don't agree with it.

are you saying you dont think its a scumtell because youve been accused of it in the past when you were town? in all fairness im not really endorsing that as a tell, but it adds to the bigger picture of his lens being narrow despite there being a lot to consider in the thread.

Now the reason why him defending Doop heavily doesn't weigh too much for me, is I look for subtle ignorance of Doop rather than outright arguing. I think scum would be aware of Doop's poor play, so I would think defending his slot would not be smart. I would think ignoring it or bussing would be much better for scum. Not totally ruling it out, but not the first thing I look into.

2 things with this.

1) with how lore presented himself and his initial impressions of doop (the "caught up to pg 11" lore post), i feel like its safe to assume that lore didnt think poorly of doops play. he said he agreed with doop on his initial impressions on marshy, and rode that. it was only after the flip that lore felt the need to express how dumbfounded he was at missing doops grimy play and making a case on a dead scumflip.

2) his defense of doop was really passive until my #1299. #1311 is where he made his reread on doop, but he wishy washily says hes not sure about the wagon cuz of the reason hes been riding the whole time, while giving himself time to "mentally compare him" as the Day goes on. cant say if hed switch onto him by the end of the Day since it got cut short, but considering his reread case on him that he gave early D2, i wouldnt be surprised if he had a change of heart or whatever.

This is literally the overall point I've been making, it's just strengthened imo by it being Doop-involved.

i give this credit for being something (and im pretty sure i did), but i think in complete isolation its a small thing. like, id use this to support a case, not the foundation of one by itself. and aside from this the read on rockin is still super easy to make. but its not strengthened by being doop involved. if his scumreads at the time were jex and anybody else who didnt have a wagon built on them, i think itd be equal in strength. thats why i think a scum!jtb flip would strengthen the weight of the connection.

 

[Pythag]

I'm working, and I'm doing a reread, but just wanted to say.

this is great.

1) with how lore presented himself and his initial impressions of doop (the "caught up to pg 11" lore post), i feel like its safe to assume that lore didnt think poorly of doops play. he said he agreed with doop on his initial impressions on marshy, and rode that. it was only after the flip that lore felt the need to express how dumbfounded he was at missing doops grimy play and making a case on a dead scumflip.

it's only on D2 we start hearing the "doop's interaction is weird as hell" when he's referencing doop, poyzin, marshy and I. (and maybe rockin?)

I wasn't sure if that was just quick reading D1, did an actual read D2, or if it's scum who is now seeking to distance themselves.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

He states he didn't know whether they were going to call it or not and I do not find that believable. (Because Marshy was the one suggesting ryu calls it but that doesn't imply it might happen) He was in thread earlier, I don't I can't verify if he saw the wagon or not. All we do know, is that he was present before and after the wagon. A quick skim and you can see wagon growth on Doop. Plus you have been pushing Doop that day so I think that invalidates your point that people would not think the wagon would gain steam. I think we should not discount Rockin nor Ryker at that stage.

i cant verify ( Rockin ) but i think he meant that he didnt know if jtb was going to be the only wagon that was really going to maintain the strength it had, which at the time, isnt an unbelievable idea to have.

sometimes people post small blurbs when they have one thing they can easily directly respond to that they see. because of that, i personally cant hold much value to his presence after the wagon formed. idk.

ngl when i made my 1299 it was because people had all but stopped looking toward doop as a wagon because so much attention was had in other places. i was giving him time to catch up because he had posted some the night before, he didnt, and i was afraid it was gonna be a coast to endgame for a scumread i had if i didnt do anything about it.

 

[Lore]

ranmaru Mind giving a short list of what you'd like me to answer, question-wise? That way I don't retread too much ground.

i give this credit for being something (and im pretty sure i did), but i think in complete isolation its a small thing. like, id use this to support a case, not the foundation of one by itself. and aside from this the read on rockin is still super easy to make. but its not strengthened by being doop involved. if his scumreads at the time were jex and anybody else who didnt have a wagon built on them, i think itd be equal in strength. thats why i think a scum!jtb flip would strengthen the weight of the connection.

Fair, and tbh your point on scum!jtb being a connection is solid.

I'm just not sure where I stand on JTB, and I should reread. He definitely seems to be coasting hardcore, and his wagon D1 had some weight behind it. I blame my focusing on other players for my lack of strong feelings on this slot, although I feel like I disliked him before? Just can't remember why.

I'll reread later and see what I think, may not be able to dig in tonight though due to an event I'm going to. Tomorrow's work day should be lighter though.

 

[ranmaru]

Lore Why did you rush your catch up? Why didn't you have individual suspicions in your doop-pythag-rockin theory?

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

This is what Rockin is referring to.

i actually forgot this happened and didnt even think of this being what rockin was referring to. gives more credence to what youre saying, but marshy said that at 4:03 and jex hammered 14 minutes later. idk, thats a small frame of time for him to factor that in if thats what he was really concerned about anyway. idk. its kind of a moot point seeing how theres more to find scummy about rockin then trying to attach him to doops scumflip. and ive stated what my thought is wrt lore being the one to notice that from rockin

 

[Lore]

I'm working, and I'm doing a reread, but just wanted to say.

this is great.

it's only on D2 we start hearing the "doop's interaction is weird as hell" when he's referencing doop, poyzin, marshy and I. (and maybe rockin?)

I wasn't sure if that was just quick reading D1, did an actual read D2, or if it's scum who is now seeking to distance themselves.

Small correction, I generally didn't include Marshy in that web of connections since he was flipped lol.

As a side note, I'll stand by my thoughts on Doop vs Marshy, where if I was in the game from the start of D1 I would have had similar feelings as Doop towards Marshy's first post. I know how I react to things like that, and I would have been instantly suspicious of it. I won't back down off that point.

Lore Why did you rush your catch up? Why didn't you have individual suspicions in your doop-pythag-rockin theory?

Rushing: Overenthusiasm I suppose, combined with having so much to cover. I wanted to join in and interact as soon as possible since it's fun, but I should have slowed myself down. There was too much to process and cover, and I'm still having to go back over things.

Individual suspicions: I did have one big individual suspicion, Poyzin. This was the key behind the entire theory. My goal was lynch Poyzin, then go for Pythag and Rockin depending on how my look at their individual content went. 90% of my scum read on Rockin and Pythag at the time came from that doop connection, but I've since asked questions to both of them about non-Doop things.

Rockin is still my scum read, with Pythag as more of a null-scum lean and overly dependent on that Doop connection. It still just feels weird to me.

 

[ranmaru]

I am saying exactly that. (about the weaker player tell)

So you are saying he was passive with his opinion of Doop until after the Doop wagon gained steam? That, could be something. I have to re-read that, need to see what he was saying before. I still stand by thinking scum would be less open to stating a defense out in the open. Now let us say this is lore scum, why would Doop self vote, increasing his chance of dying and Lore getting heat. I would think it better to just replace out if Lore was scum defending his buddy, that way it prolongs his life and also possibly avoiding the concerns we have now.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Wanted to confirm that I have just caught up with the thread. However, I will not be able to make a proper post until 7 PM EST, in which I will thoroughly explain my scumreads. Have some stuff I need to accomplish and this cannot be priority given my deadline. Things must be done for tomorrow. Will be back then.

 

[ranmaru]

Just so you know I am aware that is a bit wifomy, it is possible the opposite happened due to scum confidence we would ignore that, it is just not something I am going to consider today, when I am more confident on Rockin being scum, especially with how he is framing his posts. (Stating my posts are shoddy but never cares to respond to my response which explains my mindset which he should consider if he wants to determine my alignment further)

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

i am saying exactly that (about the passive opinion on doop)

there are plenty of reasons to defend your scummate. you dont want them to die because them dying hurts your chance of winning the game. werent you the one who said marshys scum meta is him defending his buddies or something? theres plenty of reasons to defend your scummates, and from the vantage point of pg 11, theres a little bit of steam very early in the Day on a scum!lore's scummate doop, and a votecount shows theres like none on him at that point (and we know lore sure looking at votecounts). its wifom, but throwing in an empathetic validation of doop can just give less credence to a push on him if one happens to spur on based on that reason. then he goes on to call the push on doop a push on an inactive after seeing 4 votes on him and that hed rather not see an inactive lynch through. thats SUPER easy to say as a passive defense on a scummate because there was already a wagon that got pushed at the time (maven, which then turned to lore) for inactivity to directly compare to.

all that is to say that there are PLENTY of reasons to defend your scummate rather than leave them to the dust.

i dont think doops self vote was tactical. if scum played off that, i think it would have to have been reactionary. i also doubt doop was nearly caught up enough to consider that hed make lore look bad. he was super lost in the sauce when he replaced out because of his work schedule stuff.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

im not tryna cockblock rockin pressure/a rockin wagon. i just think a lore lynch has a higher chance of netting scum and tells us a ton. not just based off lore, but off of connections to the maven wagon as well. you do you homie

 

[ranmaru]

You are making some sense and I am beginning to think there is a scum between them.

 

[ranmaru]

#HBC | Kary Why did your read change on Ryker from Day 1 to Day 2?

 

[ranmaru]

I mean we all know you're trigger happy but do you have to lean into it to this extent?

If Lore is scum, this quote makes Kary look bad.

 

[ranmaru]

I know you are going to hate this Gorf. But in Elements Mafia Ryker pushed his scummate, PJB first and hard. No one questioned them and I think we almost lost (or did). Honestly a Kary-Ryker-Lore pairing is the only way I can imagine Kary being scum. Why? being first on the wagon is the tactic I would expect from a Ryker scumteam. It reaps full reward in end game. Mark my words if Kary nor Ryker dies and they are in mylo still. (This is if Lore is scum)

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

I know you are going to hate this Gorf. But in Elements Mafia

you are so right

 

[ranmaru]

Alright. Let me try to explain it without meta. Simply, reconsider Kary regardless of his placement on the doop wagon. If there are concerns with his slot, and connection between him and lore, I feel he should be looked at.

 

[ranmaru]

I lol'd though

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Going to the store and catching up after, but Gorf tagged me.

Re: JTB

That slot is a pain in the ass. The major thing I had in favor of not removing it was the fact that the wagon looked completely whack.

The behavior presented since the slot fell behind is consistently one of "I'm not caught up. I'm not going to be caught up. I'm going to phone in what I can."

That, in and of itself, is null to me. This game is a handful. He's not the only one I think is doing that.

His direction, however, seems mostly concerned with what will keep him alive (see FF's OMGUS comment). Could be a townie who is so far behind he only sees what involves him and has that narrow of a focus. Could be a scumbag just sliding through a game thats too much for him.

The best tools for solving that slot will be the connections it has with other slots, but we may be better off just lynching it and looking in the reverse direction.

The more I look at it, the more I think JTB may need to go before FF so I can see what that flip is before passing judgement.

Either way, my vote is fine on Lore at the moment and I'll catch up on the rest of the thread soon.

 

[Rockin]

i cant verify ( Rockin ) but i think he meant that he didnt know if jtb was going to be the only wagon that was really going to maintain the strength it had, which at the time, isnt an unbelievable idea to have.

I can confirm that was a concern at the time.

so Gorf (and kary if they want to chime in), to make sure I understand a lore lynch, can you explain the issue with Lore and what we learn from it if he were to flip scum? From my understanding, the offenses were that he isn't really scumhunting and the word exchange during the wait period of UP's gambit? If there's more to it or I misread something, please let me know!