Day, Night, and Dusk - Lycanroc for Smash Bros. Ultimate

[Cosmic77]

Knowing whether or not Lycanroc will even appear in Sword/Shield is crucial to its chances of getting in Smash. So now, we basically have two battles to overcome. Before we can even think of making a case for why Lycanroc would be chosen so late in Gen 7's lifespan, we have to prove it'll still be relevant in the future. Without Sword/Shield, all we have is the end of the Sun/Moon anime, and I don't think that's nearly enough.

This is make-or-break for Lycanroc x10.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Well, moving on from the whole National dex ordeal (i'm quite upset at some people), let's start speculating some smash stuff.

When would the 4th fighter be revealed, cause given the timeframes, fighter 5 could be announced at the game awards easily or a smash dedicated direct if they have a bunch of info to tell, including a potential second fighter's pass.
It could also be unveiled right after Banjo-Kazooie drops.

Or they could do the same thing they did in 2015 and unveil the last 2 characters together in a direct IF this is the only dlc pass we're getting.

With how much time in advanced they revealed the DLC characters so far, I'm thinking we could see a September Direct with Fighter 4 teased. That said, BK and Hero were supposedly developed at the same time as Joker so they might also wanna wait until they actually started on Fighter 4 to reveal them and give them a proper trailer like BK and Hero. So it depends on how far Fighter 4 is in development.

Knowing whether or not Lycanroc will even appear in Sword/Shield is crucial to its chances of getting in Smash. So now, we basically have two battles to overcome. Before we can even think of making a case for why Lycanroc would be chosen so late in Gen 7's lifespan, we have to prove it'll still be relevant in the future. Without Sword/Shield, all we have is the end of the Sun/Moon anime, and I don't think that's nearly enough.

This is make-or-break for Lycanroc x10.

I feel like we're really banking on Gen 8 being too much of an unknown for Sakurai to put any eggs in its basket. If the Galar Pokédex was decided early enough for Smash DLC to take it in consideration, the bane of Gen 8 being far enough in development for it to impact Smash DLC would far outweight the boon of Lycanroc then being one of the bazillion regular Pokémon in the new dex and having "a future".

 

[RandomAce]

I feel like we're really banking on Gen 8 being too much of an unknown for Sakurai to put any eggs in its basket. If the Galar Pokédex was decided early enough for Smash DLC to take it in consideration, the bane of Gen 8 being far enough in development for it to impact Smash DLC would far outweight the boon of Lycanroc then being one of the bazillion regular Pokémon in the new dex and having "a future".

I don’t think the time frame that the Galar Dex was decided dictates if Gen 8 would get a newcomer.

The Galar Dex and new Pokémon are always finalized around the beginning of the development to start production, and even then the Pokémon would still have to be decided one year ahead of time, which we’ve seen with the previous two Pokémon newcomers (among a some other examples) that the Smash team would rather wait until they’re closer to a new game’s initial release to decide on which one to include, since planning that early could unaccount for some unexpected changes.

I’d say Lycanroc not being in SwSh is something we have to keep in mind of first. There are many things that we don’t know about surrounding the whole “cutting Pokémon” such as: when the decision to not include everyone was made, how much this could’ve taken into account when it came to Smash’s DLC, if cut Pokémon will really come back, how many Pokémon are in Sword and Shield, and the main one being if Lycanroc is coming back? Which we don’t have as much answers for now.

 

[Cosmic77]

Really, it all just boils down to how Lycanroc is promoted in Gen 8.

If it returns and has a notable role or special gimmick, then it might be on the table. If it returns but is treated no different than the hundreds of other Pokémon, then I wouldn't consider that anything worth noting. If it doesn't return at all, then I consider it dead in the water. Basically, there's one scenario where we have a decent chance, and even then the Pokémon from Gen 8 would likely take priority if Sakurai's past choices are anything to go by.

I'm not going to oversell our chances. It seems like Gen 8 currently has the upperhand, and it's going to stay that way unless a miracle were to happen.

 

[Delzethin]

Again, bear in mind, if this entire wave of DLC was locked in last November as Sakurai said, then there'd have been a lot regarding Sword & Shield that wouldn't have been finalized yet. Determining, at that point, whether to add a character from the not-dead-yet 7th generation based on how easily they'd be obtained in the next generation feels...what's the phrase? Like the tail wagging the dog?

And being present yet without any special treatment wouldn't mean anything on its own, either. Zoroark appeared in Kalos as a late game wildmon, yet that wasn't treated like a downgrade nor did it diminish what Zoroark had done in Gen 5.

 

[Cosmic77]

Again, bear in mind, if this entire wave of DLC was locked in last November as Sakurai said, then there'd have been a lot regarding Sword & Shield that wouldn't have been finalized yet. Determining, at that point, whether to add a character from the not-dead-yet 7th generation based on how easily they'd be obtained in the next generation feels...what's the phrase? Like the tail wagging the dog?

And being present yet without any special treatment wouldn't mean anything on its own, either. Zoroark appeared in Kalos as a late game wildmon, yet that wasn't treated like a downgrade nor did it diminish what Zoroark had done in Gen 5.

Whatever happens to Lycanroc in Gen 8 won't take away from what he's already accomplished, but based on the most recent Pokémon additions in Smash, it seems like relevancy trumps all. Regardless of how notable Sceptile, Zoroark, Lycanroc, or any other fourth Pokémon becomes, it seems like Sakurai would rather add a risky but fresh Pokémon over a reliable old one.

Granted, Nintendo is choosing the DLC, not Sakurai, so how much input he has for the hypothetical Pokémon we'd get is up for debate. Still, if the DLC for the Fighter Pass hadn't begun until Novemeber 1st at the earliest, I can't imagine why Nintendo or Sakurai wouldn't be thinking long-term with Pokémon. If the interest for a Gen 8 Pokémon was there, they should've made a placeholder and held it off as the fourth or fifth fighter so Game Freak would have more things finalized by the time development for said Pokémon began.

 

[Guynamednelson]

it seems like Sakurai would rather add a risky but fresh Pokémon over a reliable old one

You can even see an example of this in Ultimate's Poke Ball selection, where Scizor was brought back with more animation instead of being made playable.

 

[RandomAce]

Whatever happens to Lycanroc in Gen 8 won't take away from what he's already accomplished, but based on the most recent Pokémon additions in Smash, it seems like relevancy trumps all. Regardless of how notable Sceptile, Zoroark, Lycanroc, or any other fourth Pokémon becomes, it seems like Sakurai would rather add a risky but fresh Pokémon over a reliable old one.

Granted, Nintendo is choosing the DLC, not Sakurai, so how much input he has for the hypothetical Pokémon we'd get is up for debate. Still, if the DLC for the Fighter Pass hadn't begun until Novemeber 1st at the earliest, I can't imagine why Nintendo or Sakurai wouldn't be thinking long-term with Pokémon. If the interest for a Gen 8 Pokémon was there, they should've made a placeholder and held it off as the fourth or fifth fighter so Game Freak would have more things finalized by the time development for said Pokémon began.

But Sakurai said that the DLC roster was finalized, didn’t he.

I doubt having a “Gen 8 Newcomer” placeholder would count as finalized, unless he lied a bit, and wouldn’t work as well in this scenario. In previous smash games, it worked because there were still about a year or two to first decided which Pokémon they were going for before they could get working on them and finish them on time. We have a more rigid timeframe to work with this time, since we only have at most next February to release all DLC, Fighter 4 and 5 would have to started production around this time, and we’re still 5 months away from SwSh’s release. Although we are closer to SwSh’s release now, the move sets and fighters themselves would already have to be planned out before hand in order to immediately get to work on them before the deadline, and I don’t think they have that sort of time to start making a brand new concept on someone now.

A Gen 8 newcomer may seem like a smart move now, the way the Smash goes about adding characters doesn’t make the possibility fit too well. Plus, I don’t think Nintendo would actually push hard for a Gen 8 newcomer in Smash, as at least for promotional reasons, Pokemon is strong on it’s own. Maybe it could’ve been suggested, but not mandatory per say.

And who knows, sometimes it may better to include a character that people already have known for some time and has developed a fan base than someone that just started getting into place. Banjo’s inclusion was precedent for this. So I could see something similar be the case for Lycanroc, where the devs could’ve been interested in working on Lycanroc and decided to go with an already popular Pokémon to release as DLC and as a sort of last minute push for Gen 7 before the we enter into the next gen.

 

[Cosmic77]

But Sakurai said that the DLC roster was finalized, didn’t he.

I doubt having a “Gen 8 Newcomer” placeholder would count as finalized, unless he lied a bit, and wouldn’t work as well in this scenario. In previous smash games, it worked because there were still about a year or two to first decided which Pokémon they were going for before they could get working on them and finish them on time. We have a more rigid timeframe to work with this time, since we only have at most next February to release all DLC, Fighter 4 and 5 would have to started production around this time, and we’re still 5 months away from SwSh’s release. Although we are closer to SwSh’s release now, the move sets and fighters themselves would already have to be planned out before hand in order to immediately get to work on them before the deadline, and I don’t think they have that sort of time to start making a brand new concept on someone now.

A Gen 8 newcomer may seem like a smart move now, the way the Smash goes about adding characters doesn’t make the possibility fit too well. Plus, I don’t think Nintendo would actually push hard for a Gen 8 newcomer in Smash, as at least for promotional reasons, Pokemon is strong on it’s own. Maybe it could’ve been suggested, but not mandatory per say.

And who knows, sometimes it may better to include a character that people already have known for some time and has developed a fan base than someone that just started getting into place. Banjo’s inclusion was precedent for this. So I could see something similar be the case for Lycanroc, where the devs could’ve been interested in working on Lycanroc and decided to go with an already popular Pokémon to release as DLC and as a sort of last minute push for Gen 7 before the we enter into the next gen.

I don't see how a new Pokémon would stray too far from how Corrin was handled in Smash 4. Based on Sakurai's comments about Mewtwo orginally being the only DLC planned (on top of there being three other DLC characters before Corrin), Corrin likely wasn't even a thought until 2015. We already know the work on Corrin had to have began before Fates came out in Japan (July 2015), so that means Sakurai not only started work on a character the same year its game would be released, but he also created a moveset for a character from an unreleased game.

I don't know how much of Sword and Shield is finalized, but they must be close to being done if they think they can make a November deadline. These last few months should be spent polishing the game and debugging, not making major changes to designs and moves. If production for fighter 4 and 5 starts around this time like we both think it will, I don't see why there wouldn't be enough finalized material for Sakurai to choose a Pokémon and make a character from scratch like he did with Corrin. Actually, the timeframe between both characters should almost be identical, with work beginning in late spring/early summer and ending in late winter/early spring.

Now whether or not Nintendo would choose a Pokémon is up for debate, but I think we're past the point of doubting if it's something Sakurai is capable of.

 

[RandomAce]

I don't see how a new Pokémon would stray too far from how Corrin was handled in Smash 4. Based on Sakurai's comments about Mewtwo orginally being the only DLC planned (on top of there being three other DLC characters before Corrin), Corrin likely wasn't even a thought until 2015. We already know the work on Corrin had to have began before Fates came out in Japan (July 2015), so that means Sakurai not only started work on a character the same year its game would be released, but he also created a moveset for a character from an unreleased game.

I don't know how much of Sword and Shield is finalized, but they must be close to being done if they think they can make a November deadline. These last few months should be spent polishing the game and debugging, not making major changes to designs and moves. If production for fighter 4 and 5 starts around this time like we both think it will, I don't see why there wouldn't be enough finalized material for Sakurai to choose a Pokémon and make a character from scratch like he did with Corrin. Actually, the timeframe between both characters should almost be identical, with work beginning in late spring/early summer and ending in late winter/early spring.

Now whether or not Nintendo would choose a Pokémon is up for debate, but I think we're past the point of doubting if it's something Sakurai is capable of.

Fates was actually released in June.

There are some differences between the development behind Corrin than there would be a hypothetical Gen 8 character. Firstly, Corrin was decided merely one month before FE Fates release, so Fates was already out throughout most of his development before his reveal. Secondly, unlike with Ultimate, there wasn’t a set pattern when it came to DLC releases, and there was no set deadline when the team selected Corrin, and Ultimate wasn’t even a thought yet, so they were free to pick whatever new concepts they could get when it came to the last batch of newcomers. This can be seen with the near six month gap between Ryu and Cloud. I feel like it’s more of a coincidence that Corrin was released around the time Ultimate’s Fighter pass ends. This is different with Ultimate as there is a clear DLC release pattern, deadline, and SwSh releases much later than Fates, and I feel that with them using a hypothetical placeholder, they would be cutting it pretty close to that February deadline.

And despite SwSh’s release being closer, many games can still (and have) receive many changes within that time frame. FE: Three Houses getting delayed, and Greninja’s name not being decided despite Sakurai waiting closer to X and Y’s release are couple of examples.

Although it’s not impossible that Sakurai and Nintendo could decide on a Gen 8 newcomer, it seems to go against what they have been doing for years from a developer’s stand point, so I find it unlikely.

 

[Delzethin]

We're in a bit of a gray area here. Lot of the statements we got early on leave room for interpretation, which is...why there've been so many interpretations.

Granted, Nintendo is choosing the DLC, not Sakurai, so how much input he has for the hypothetical Pokémon we'd get is up for debate. Still, if the DLC for the Fighter Pass hadn't begun until Novemeber 1st at the earliest, I can't imagine why Nintendo or Sakurai wouldn't be thinking long-term with Pokémon. If the interest for a Gen 8 Pokémon was there, they should've made a placeholder and held it off as the fourth or fifth fighter so Game Freak would have more things finalized by the time development for said Pokémon began.

For example, we don't know to what extent Nintendo was involved. The idea that the Big N must be forcing decisions onto Sakurai, or gave him a narrow list and demanded he choose only from it, was made up, far as I'm aware. I think our instincts are so wired to viewing everything as a struggle for dominance that our default response is to assume one must be happening, but we're best off not assuming such when we don't have enough evidence to support it.

With the history between Sakurai and Nintendo's higher ups and how good of terms they're on, a back-and-forth collaboration would've made a lot of sense. But we also don't have significant proof of that, either...which is itself the point. Since we're mostly in the dark, we're better off considering multiple possible outcomes rather than locking in the first one that comes to mind and deciding it must be true. Jumping headfirst into the first thing that feels real is a logic trap of sorts, and an easy one to fall into...and unfortunately, a lot of the Smash community is a case study.

Fates was actually released in June.

There are some differences between the development behind Corrin than there would be a hypothetical Gen 8 character. Firstly, Corrin was decided merely one month before FE Fates release, so Fates was already out throughout most of his development before his reveal. Secondly, unlike with Ultimate, there wasn’t a set pattern when it came to DLC releases, and there was no set deadline when the team selected Corrin, and Ultimate wasn’t even a thought yet, so they were free to pick whatever new concepts they could get when it came to the last batch of newcomers. This can be seen with the near six month gap between Ryu and Cloud. I feel like it’s more of a coincidence that Corrin was released around the time Ultimate’s Fighter pass ends. This is different with Ultimate as there is a clear DLC release pattern, deadline, and SwSh releases much later than Fates, and I feel that with them using a hypothetical placeholder, they would be cutting it pretty close to that February deadline.

And despite SwSh’s release being closer, many games can still (and have) receive many changes within that time frame. FE: Three Houses getting delayed, and Greninja’s name not being decided despite Sakurai waiting closer to X and Y’s release are couple of examples.

Although it’s not impossible that Sakurai and Nintendo could decide on a Gen 8 newcomer, it seems to go against what they have been doing for years from a developer’s stand point, so I find it unlikely.

And that's the thing, the timing surrounding Corrin is something that isn't analyzed nor accounted for very often. Based on when Corrin's placeholder was added to Smash 4's data, we've reason to believe development on them started some time between mid-April and mid-June 2015.

Since Fire Emblem Fates released in Japan in late June, this means work on Corrin started at a point where Corrin's debut game was either done or almost done. Corrin actually lines up with everything we've seen since Brawl with Smash only seriously considering characters if work on their games at the time of the decision is close enough to complete that nothing about them--visuals, power set, or otherwise--could change. It seems Sakurai doesn't want a repeat of how Melee portrayed Roy wrong because they jumped the gun on him. Pokémon newcomers have also lined up with this, since Sakurai has said they waited until X & Y were almost out before weighing their options for Gen 6 and eventually locking in Greninja.

While it doesn't make a Gen 8 pick impossible for this wave, the fact that there is simply not enough time to wait until Sword & Shield are almost done raises significant questions that a lot of the community has either not thought to ask or dismissed offhand. We're best off trying to get a clearer picture.

 

[Cosmic77]

Fates was actually released in June.

There are some differences between the development behind Corrin than there would be a hypothetical Gen 8 character. Firstly, Corrin was decided merely one month before FE Fates release, so Fates was already out throughout most of his development before his reveal. Secondly, unlike with Ultimate, there wasn’t a set pattern when it came to DLC releases, and there was no set deadline when the team selected Corrin, and Ultimate wasn’t even a thought yet, so they were free to pick whatever new concepts they could get when it came to the last batch of newcomers. This can be seen with the near six month gap between Ryu and Cloud. I feel like it’s more of a coincidence that Corrin was released around the time Ultimate’s Fighter pass ends. This is different with Ultimate as there is a clear DLC release pattern, deadline, and SwSh releases much later than Fates, and I feel that with them using a hypothetical placeholder, they would be cutting it pretty close to that February deadline.

And despite SwSh’s release being closer, many games can still (and have) receive many changes within that time frame. FE: Three Houses getting delayed, and Greninja’s name not being decided despite Sakurai waiting closer to X and Y’s release are couple of examples.

Although it’s not impossible that Sakurai and Nintendo could decide on a Gen 8 newcomer, it seems to go against what they have been doing for years from a developer’s stand point, so I find it unlikely.

What I don't understand about your argument is the strong emphasis you're putting on that February deadline.

Even with Smash 4's relaxed pace and lack of a deadline, Sakurai was pushing out DLC at a rate that's pretty consistent with Ultimate's. From the release of Smash Wii U to Corrin/Bayo's release, we're looking at roughly one year and two months - almost exactly the same as Ultimate's release and that February 2020 deadline. And even when you replace Smash Wii U's release date with the 3DS's, you're only looking at a two month difference, which might be somewhat expected considering how he managed to create more stages AND more characters than what we'll be getting in this Fighter Pass.

So no, I don't really feel like this set schedule is all that taxing on Sakurai and his team. If Nintendo had a placeholder for a Gen 8 Pokemon, I fail to see how it would be vastly different from Greninja and Incineroar. Sakurai himself even explained that he took some illustrations of Greninja home with him one evening and around midnight completed, in his own words, "All his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking “What do you think?”. Not only was all of that done before a name for Greninja was even decided, but this was also more than a year before X and Y was released.

No matter which angle you look at this, there's a larger time gap for X/Y than there is for Sword/Shield, and Sakurai would be able to start work on a Gen 8 Pokemon with far more finalized material than he did with Greninja. The only argument someone can really make is saying that there's significantly less time to complete a character before the deadline. If Corrin turned out fine despite his game not releasing for another month. I'm sure Sakurai could finish a Pokemon from a game releasing in five months. It's already been shown that Game Freak is there to cooperate and lend a hand as needed.

I'm not trying to argue, nor am I trying to throw Lycanroc under the bus in favor of a new Pokemon. I just think we shouldn't underestimate Gen 8.

Since Fire Emblem Fates released in Japan in late June, this means work on Corrin started at a point where Corrin's debut game was either done or almost done. Corrin actually lines up with everything we've seen since Brawl with Smash only seriously considering characters if work on their games at the time of the decision is close enough to complete that nothing about them--visuals, power set, or otherwise--could change. It seems Sakurai doesn't want a repeat of how Melee portrayed Roy wrong because they jumped the gun on him. Pokémon newcomers have also lined up with this, since Sakurai has said they waited until X & Y were almost out before locking in Greninja. While it doesn't make a Gen 8 pick impossible for this wave, it does raise significant questions.

Like I pointed out before, Corrin started development 1-2 months before his game was released. If work for a new Pokemon were to start about now, that'd be 5-6 months before Sword and Shield's release.

That's...not a huge gap IMO. Yeah, there's a few extra months tacked on, but I don't see why this would be considered a deal-breaker. We're at a point where almost every new Pokemon should have a finalized name and design, and we should be seeing more of these new Pokemon in reveal trailers any day now. This isn't even comparable to how little was finalized with Greninja when Sakurai teased the thought of putting him in Smash.

Assuming we'll get a Gen 8 Pokemon isn't the safest bet, but I wouldn't say the odds are against it.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

As much as a fun piece of info the Roy-thing is, it's far easier to change the personality of someone whose personality is mostly portrayed through writing than a Pokémon whose personality is design + a few Pokédex lines. If a Pokémon design is finalised, that's much more reliable than Roy's design being finished. Making comparisons to Corrin/Roy and Pokémon is fine and dandy but don't forget that pokémon in Smash is a different beast. One other point I'd like to bring up is Luigi's grab, which is directly pulled from Luigi's Mansion 3. Luigi's Poltergust having a plunger is something that could be changed easily in Mansion's development cycle (Either by scrapping the gameplay feature that requires it or simply changing the design or the way Luigi pulls off the maneuvre) yet Sakurai decided to use it for Smash Ultimate at launch.
With this Roy theory being pushed as a way to say "Sakurai never does anything pre-launch since that disaster" I thought I'd throw in an argument that might show it's again, not that black and white. It's never good to rely on one anecdote since the variables can always be decisively different for a different case.

 

[RandomAce]

As much as a fun piece of info the Roy-thing is, it's far easier to change the personality of someone whose personality is mostly portrayed through writing than a Pokémon whose personality is design + a few Pokédex lines. If a Pokémon design is finalised, that's much more reliable than Roy's design being finished. Making comparisons to Corrin/Roy and Pokémon is fine and dandy but don't forget that pokémon in Smash is a different beast. One other point I'd like to bring up is Luigi's grab, which is directly pulled from Luigi's Mansion 3. Luigi's Poltergust having a plunger is something that could be changed easily in Mansion's development cycle (Either by scrapping the gameplay feature that requires it or simply changing the design or the way Luigi pulls off the maneuvre) yet Sakurai decided to use it for Smash Ultimate at launch.
With this Roy theory being pushed as a way to say "Sakurai never does anything pre-launch since that disaster" I thought I'd throw in an argument that might show it's again, not that black and white. It's never good to rely on one anecdote since the variables can always be decisively different for a different case.

I don’t really mention Luigi’s grab because it’s relatively minor and would still make sense even if Luigi’s Mansion 3 was shelved. I have a feeling that Sakurai did wanted to include Luigi’s Poltergeist as it’s been apart of his own series, and a new Luigi’s Mansion game just so happened to be in the works. I think a recent example that shows that this philosophy is still persistent is that Sakurai chose Incineroar when S/M released compared to Greninja.

I feel like the conversation is gonna keep going in circles. While Cosmic believes that the devs are gonna use a placeholder and that the 5 month difference between Fates and SwSh isn’t a big deal. I think all the fighters were planned by November, and that the team is only willing to include fresh characters from games that are at least nearly released around the time of planning. I do think that Sakurai could break his tradition since he does so on multiple occasions, but I also think Sakurai may not be as willing to break it either.

 

[Delzethin]

Ultimately, it comes down to details we can only speculate on, and we disagree on how those details could've panned out. While I personally think past examples of Smash devs preferring not to jump the gun on new games + the more structured setup for this wave compared to Smash 4's DLC making it less likely that they used a placeholder and came back to it, there're always possible outcomes that I or any other given person hasn't thought of. And it's okay if we disagree on the details! Having varying opinions helps us get more perspectives than if we all fell into lockstep and said the exact same things.

That said, we're clearly going nowhere with this, so how about a change of topic? There must be something else worth talking about right now.

 

[Guynamednelson]

You know about the whole "later reveals are less hype" thing? Consider the following:

• People caring more about the quantity of Pokemon reps rather than the quality
• Smash fans have opinions on Pokemon that contradict their opinion on Fire Emblem, being that they want Pokemon reps to be more stereotypical, and Lycanroc conflicts with their desired stereotype
• People who think "no spirit=DLC" focus more on Sylux and Porky
• There are people who think only third parties could be hype

Granted, it is a coincidence that later reveals are supposedly less hype.

 

[Cosmic77]

You know about the whole "later reveals are less hype" thing? Consider the following:

• People caring more about the quantity of Pokemon reps rather than the quality
• Smash fans have opinions on Pokemon that contradict their opinion on Fire Emblem, being that they want Pokemon reps to be more stereotypical, and Lycanroc conflicts with their desired stereotype
• People who think "no spirit=DLC" focus more on Sylux and Porky
• There are people who think only third parties could be hype

Granted, it is a coincidence that later reveals are supposedly less hype.

Here's what I say to each of those.

• Don't know why anyone would choose quantity over quality with Smash characters. More than half of FE's cast are derived from one moveset.
• I actually hate it when Pokemon get stereotyped as something. Makes them feel like less of a Pokemon and more like the thing they're supposed to mimic. I'd prefer more generic Pokemon like Charizard, Mewtwo, or Lycanroc.
• Honestly, the support for those two and any Nintendo character is at a bare minimum right now.
• And I'm someone who's dreading another third-party because they typically don't excite me.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I actually hate it when Pokemon get stereotyped as something. Makes them feel like less of a Pokemon and more like the thing they're supposed to mimic. I'd prefer more generic Pokemon like Charizard, Mewtwo, or Lycanroc.

What I mean by that is people going "I hope the next FE rep isn't another sword user" but not going "I hope the next Pokemon rep isn't humanoid or a starter" and for that matter they hope for a grass starter.

 

[LukeRNG]

What I mean by that is people going "I hope the next FE rep isn't another sword user" but not going "I hope the next Pokemon rep isn't humanoid or a starter" and for that matter they hope for a grass starter.

I think the major problem is that 4 of the 7 FE character share a lot of moves and are aesthetically similar in appearance (Chrom, Lucina & Marth look very similar in my eyes), whilst the humanoid pokemon play distinguishably different from eachother + said pokemon (Mewtwo, Lucario, Greninja & Incineroar) for the most part look drastically different. Plus the pokemon trainer's 3 pokemon look and play completely different from eachother, while Greninja and Incineroar also play very differently.

I personally think it all comes down to design and playstyles. I mean, animals are multiple species and are easier to distinguish compared to humans.

 

[Delzethin]

You know about the whole "later reveals are less hype" thing? Consider the following:

• People caring more about the quantity of Pokemon reps rather than the quality
• Smash fans have opinions on Pokemon that contradict their opinion on Fire Emblem, being that they want Pokemon reps to be more stereotypical, and Lycanroc conflicts with their desired stereotype
• People who think "no spirit=DLC" focus more on Sylux and Porky
• There are people who think only third parties could be hype

Granted, it is a coincidence that later reveals are supposedly less hype.

As someone who follows both Pokémon and Fire Emblem...it's complicated. On one hand, there are gripes toward how similar most of the FE crew is, which is understandable since we basically have four characters using four variants of one moveset (though Roy/Chrom did diverge a ways from Marth/Lucina in Smash 4). On the other...that part kinda falls flat when you saw people bashing Corrin upon reveal for creating "too many reps" just months after praising Roy's return despite Roy being a semi-clone and Corrin being completely unique.

You'd think they'd be more annoyed at the less unique character, but no, it was more about their identity, and one was someone they knew while the other was someone they felt didn't have enough seniority to "deserve it". It's another symptom of a lot of speculators not looking beyond what they already know. This is also why the very idea of first party DLC is getting written off--most of the first party characters they know or care about are either already in or stuck as summons or spirits (even though we don't know if spirits are ineligible for DLC), and they aren't looking into anyone they aren't already attached to.

Which is why we've had even less attention than usual. Lot of people never bothered with us before because we didn't "complete the starter trio" and weren't mentioned in a popular leak or rumor, and now we have this "first parties wouldn't be hype enough" nonsense on top of it.

There must be some way to upend this all, somehow...

 

[Cyborg Sun]

What is with this need to "complete the starter trio" in speculation anyways? Like, at least it was somewhat understandable back in Smash 4/Pre-E3 2018 days (even though Smash never operated like that) but I mean... we have Ivysaur back in Ultimate. That's our grass starter, right? Or does she not count because it's not the final evolution/part of the Pokemon Trainer???

Speculation's strange...

 

[Guynamednelson]

What is with this need to "complete the starter trio" in speculation anyways? Like, at least it was somewhat understandable back in Smash 4/Pre-E3 2018 days (even though Smash never operated like that) but I mean... we have Ivysaur back in Ultimate. That's our grass starter, right? Or does she not count because it's not the final evolution/part of the Pokemon Trainer???

Speculation's strange...

It counted until Incineroar was officially confirmed. Reason #19127 why Sakurai choosing Incineroar was wrong.

But in all honesty some people don't care what characters are actually the most popular within the series' fandoms. For one thing, we've yet to get a non-sword-using FE character because most axe/lance users are less popular among FE fans or important in their games.

 

[osby]

What is with this need to "complete the starter trio" in speculation anyways? Like, at least it was somewhat understandable back in Smash 4/Pre-E3 2018 days (even though Smash never operated like that) but I mean... we have Ivysaur back in Ultimate. That's our grass starter, right? Or does she not count because it's not the final evolution/part of the Pokemon Trainer???

Speculation's strange...

is one starter trio. Now Sakurai has to complete the other one he started:

 

[Cosmic77]

As someone who follows both Pokémon and Fire Emblem...it's complicated. On one hand, there are gripes toward how similar most of the FE crew is, which is understandable since we basically have four characters using four variants of one moveset (though Roy/Chrom did diverge a ways from Marth/Lucina in Smash 4). On the other...that part kinda falls flat when you saw people bashing Corrin upon reveal for creating "too many reps" just months after praising Roy's return despite Roy being a semi-clone and Corrin being completely unique.

I don't like Corrin, but even I can admit that he's extremely unique. As a matter of fact, he uses his sword in attacks fewer times than any other FE character. I understand why people weren't happy with him and may have wanted someone else, but I don't think it's fair to lump him with the rest of the FE cast.

My beef is with Marth and his moveset. I feel like every time there's a FE character Sakurai wants to save, he's shoves them onto Marth because he has a moveset that's so generic and unspecific that it could be given to virtually any swordfighter. Seeing Chrom get in when Lucina and Roy were already a thing felt like wasted time to me. There were other characters aside from Chrom that were very popular and could've worked as Echoes, but Sakurai chose to go with an Echo of a semi-clone of a character who already had an Echo.

Which is why we've had even less attention than usual. Lot of people never bothered with us before because we didn't "complete the starter trio" and weren't mentioned in a popular leak or rumor, and now we have this "first parties wouldn't be hype enough" nonsense on top of it.

There must be some way to upend this all, somehow...

I don't think there's any use in trying to change their opinion. Third-parties are what they expect, so that's what they've trained themselves to want.

That being said, I'm surprised people haven't finally realized that third-parties are no different than first-parties in terms of hype. It's not which company the character comes from that matters, it's the character themselves. That's why Hero was met with criticism and Banjo was met with praise.

is one starter trio. Now Sakurai has to complete the other one he started:

I'm praying that this trend doesn't continue in the next Smash game. It's frustrating seeing everyone flock to the grass-type starter just so we can complete some imaginary trio of Pokemon types that shouldn't even be a priority now that PT is back. We should be focusing on movesets, not types.

I put up with Sceptile, and I put up with Decidueye. I'm not putting up with it a third-time.

 

[LukeRNG]

It counted until Incineroar was officially confirmed. Reason #19127 why Sakurai choosing Incineroar was wrong.

But in all honesty some people don't care what characters are actually the most popular within the series' fandoms. For one thing, we've yet to get a non-sword-using FE character because most axe/lance users are less popular among FE fans or important in their games.

Um, why exactly was choosing Incineroar wrong? I'm still confused about that aspect.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Um, why exactly was choosing Incineroar wrong? I'm still confused about that aspect.

• Highly unlikely to be in the Galar dex and thus SS
• Struggled to be a fan favorite compared to the likes of Mimikyu and Lycanroc
• People were wanting Incineroar leaks to be fake back when it was leaked for SM
• Being the slowest of the slow is a death sentence in Smash
• Makes people want a grass starter more than their favorite character/Pokemon
• If Sakurai wanted to make a wrestler Pokemon, he could've done that last time with a wrestler Pokemon that was much more well-received (granted he wouldn't have been aware of this reception)
• Many people would've rather had a leak with several non-Pokemon characters instead

 

[WeirdChillFever]

As someone who follows both Pokémon and Fire Emblem...it's complicated. On one hand, there are gripes toward how similar most of the FE crew is, which is understandable since we basically have four characters using four variants of one moveset (though Roy/Chrom did diverge a ways from Marth/Lucina in Smash 4). On the other...that part kinda falls flat when you saw people bashing Corrin upon reveal for creating "too many reps" just months after praising Roy's return despite Roy being a semi-clone and Corrin being completely unique.

You'd think they'd be more annoyed at the less unique character, but no, it was more about their identity, and one was someone they knew while the other was someone they felt didn't have enough seniority to "deserve it". It's another symptom of a lot of speculators not looking beyond what they already know. This is also why the very idea of first party DLC is getting written off--most of the first party characters they know or care about are either already in or stuck as summons or spirits (even though we don't know if spirits are ineligible for DLC), and they aren't looking into anyone they aren't already attached to.

Which is why we've had even less attention than usual. Lot of people never bothered with us before because we didn't "complete the starter trio" and weren't mentioned in a popular leak or rumor, and now we have this "first parties wouldn't be hype enough" nonsense on top of it.

There must be some way to upend this all, somehow...

Roy is a veteran. Veterans are hard to beat in popularity period, and especially after Lucas returned people were clamoring for Roy for completion reasons. Saying that it must be Corrin's status as a recent character and that liking Roy but disliking Corrin is some sort of hypocrisy geared towards that is a false equivalence that does not take in mind any factors beyond those that confirm your view on the matter.

The latter statements on speculation are both correct, in that Smash speculators stick to what they like, but that's also a valid way to go through speculators. It's a game where you support your favorite and if you're a long-time gamer, chances are your favorite character is one you already know. That's not to say there aren't interesting characters to be found in new titles (be it chronological or as in new to the speculator themselves) but you can't blame people for sticking to what they know they like. That sentiment changes slightly when shifting speculating from based on what would be cool to see towards based on what's likely, but no speculator owes anyone to research any choice that's potentially on the table.

One way to garner support is to garner support based on moveset. Liking moveset potential is much less depending on whats likely and easier to convey than timetables of the Pokémon anime. Proving someone is likely only gets you a passing glance like "Oh, okay. I *guess*" and without a leak its impossible for one character to really rise above the possible choices. Showing why someone would be fun, either by showing them the character's personality or moveset actually makes them interested.

 

[Delzethin]

What is with this need to "complete the starter trio" in speculation anyways? Like, at least it was somewhat understandable back in Smash 4/Pre-E3 2018 days (even though Smash never operated like that) but I mean... we have Ivysaur back in Ultimate. That's our grass starter, right? Or does she not count because it's not the final evolution/part of the Pokemon Trainer???

Speculation's strange...

There's a recurring thing where speculators try to complete patterns even if they're not necessarily there. Expecting a grass starter to complete a trio, expecting a specific character from a so far absent game in order to "represent" it, et cetera. Though it's been more complicated than that so far, because Sceptile and Decidueye, the two 'mons who were considered the chance to make a complete set, are also ridiculously popular on their own terms. They had more than just people backing them who wanted a pattern, they had a lot of genuine supporters who legitimately liked them for who they were.

Which should lead to an interesting situation whenever we find out about Grookey's fully evolved form. Odds are, we'll see a lot of people outside the Pokémon fandom start expecting it to get into Ultimate, and they'll do so completely independently of whatever support base it actually has or whatever abilities it is capable of.

I don't think there's any use in trying to change their opinion. Third-parties are what they expect, so that's what they've trained themselves to want.

That being said, I'm surprised people haven't finally realized that third-parties are no different than first-parties in terms of hype. It's not which company the character comes from that matters, it's the character themselves. That's why Hero was met with criticism and Banjo was met with praise.

*met with criticism on our side of the fandom, that is. Apparently the Japanese trailer for the Hero has something like 4.5 million views already or some similarly crazy number.

But that itself shows how relative this all is! And only means this problem of most speculators never looking beyond what they already know or already expect even more ridiculous...

Roy is a veteran. Veterans are hard to beat in popularity period, and especially after Lucas returned people were clamoring for Roy for completion reasons. Saying that it must be Corrin's status as a recent character and that liking Roy but disliking Corrin is some sort of hypocrisy geared towards that is a false equivalence that does not take in mind any factors beyond those that confirm your view on the matter.

The latter statements on speculation are both correct, in that Smash speculators stick to what they like, but that's also a valid way to go through speculators. It's a game where you support your favorite and if you're a long-time gamer, chances are your favorite character is one you already know. That's not to say there aren't interesting characters to be found in new titles (be it chronological or as in new to the speculator themselves) but you can't blame people for sticking to what they know they like. That sentiment changes slightly when shifting speculating from based on what would be cool to see towards based on what's likely, but no speculator owes anyone to research any choice that's potentially on the table.

One way to garner support is to garner support based on moveset. Liking moveset potential is much less depending on whats likely and easier to convey than timetables of the Pokémon anime. Proving someone is likely only gets you a passing glance like "Oh, okay. I *guess*" and without a leak its impossible for one character to really rise above the possible choices. Showing why someone would be fun, either by showing them the character's personality or moveset actually makes them interested.

There's a delicate balance involved. Focus too much on why you believe a character has a chance, and there's nothing to hook someone into caring. Focus too much on why they'd be unique without explaining why they're worth caring about, and you won't have much of a chance to win anyone over because most readers won't even bother to look at what you've come up with.

Not a very ideal situation, this.

 

[Guynamednelson]

ridiculously popular on their own terms

Eh, Decidueye isn't that popular in Japan, and a lot of its Western popularity is about filling a quota in Smash. It's Rowlet who has all that supposed popularity.

 

[LukeRNG]

• Highly unlikely to be in the Galar dex and thus SS
• Struggled to be a fan favorite compared to the likes of Mimikyu and Lycanroc
• People were wanting Incineroar leaks to be fake back when it was leaked for SM
• Being the slowest of the slow is a death sentence in Smash
• Makes people want a grass starter more than their favorite character/Pokemon
• If Sakurai wanted to make a wrestler Pokemon, he could've done that last time with a wrestler Pokemon that was much more well-received (granted he wouldn't have been aware of this reception)
• Many people would've rather had a leak with several non-Pokemon characters instead

I can see what you mean with some points, but some others i don't think should factor in at all:

-"Highly unlikely to be in the Galar dex and thus SS".
That doesn't mean anything. Greninja didn't show up in ORAS or anywhere in 2015. And unless you play the demo, doesn't show up in Sun and Moon.

-"Being the slowest of the slow is a death sentence in Smash".
That was Sakurai's choice to make it slow. Remember that not all characters are 1-1 faithful to their source material and, from what i've seen, the casual audience don't seem to have a problem playing slow characters. Being slow shouldn't be a reason to say a character shouldn't be in the game, they can be handled right and Incineroar works regardless if you like their playstyle or not.

-"Makes people want a grass starter more than their favorite character/Pokemon".
Sakurai shouldn't care about starter trio completion. He also said recently that he doesn't keep up with fan reactions and predictions, so whether people would want a grass starter thanks to them adding a fire starter, it would've gone over Sakurai anyways. Also, who said people would rather want a grass starter vs their favorite character/Pokemon? I think you wanted to say "Expect".

-"Many people would've rather had a leak with several non-Pokemon characters instead".
That's completely irrelevant as to whether a character should be in smash or not. Sakurai doesn't care what people want to see in a leak, why would he? It wasn't Sakurai's fault that someone made up that leak.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Decidueye/Sceptile's popularity is hard to pin down. First up, there's definitely people who use the grass starter argument in a completionist way. "We have fire, water, pattern demands there's grass,". It's not all black and white though, because the grass element is also seen as a strong argument because it is an element that is both underrepresented in Smash (with only Ivysaur and arguably Piranha Plant making use of it) and allows for interesting mechanics combined with the attributes of the fighters themselves. One look at Sceptile's Pokken moveset shows that the ground manipulation through growing plants allows for a trapper playstyle that's also barely seen in Smash. There's multiple facets to the "I'd like to see a grass starter" statement than this pattern-thinking they're accused of.

 

[Garteam]

I really like Sceptile/Decidueye and I think they'd make good Smash characters, but that's not really because of the fact they are grass users. Grass moves would be cool, but I really like the idea of having characters in Smash built around being hunters. Stealth-like movement, laying traps, and brutal moves that need thought to truly execute properly would make both Pokemon extremely fun to play as.

Granted, that's kinda the way plays as well, but he's a lot of fun to begin with, so I don't see the harm in having another character who uses this playstyle.

 

[RandomAce]

Roy is a veteran. Veterans are hard to beat in popularity period, and especially after Lucas returned people were clamoring for Roy for completion reasons. Saying that it must be Corrin's status as a recent character and that liking Roy but disliking Corrin is some sort of hypocrisy geared towards that is a false equivalence that does not take in mind any factors beyond those that confirm your view on the matter.

The latter statements on speculation are both correct, in that Smash speculators stick to what they like, but that's also a valid way to go through speculators. It's a game where you support your favorite and if you're a long-time gamer, chances are your favorite character is one you already know. That's not to say there aren't interesting characters to be found in new titles (be it chronological or as in new to the speculator themselves) but you can't blame people for sticking to what they know they like. That sentiment changes slightly when shifting speculating from based on what would be cool to see towards based on what's likely, but no speculator owes anyone to research any choice that's potentially on the table.

One way to garner support is to garner support based on moveset. Liking moveset potential is much less depending on whats likely and easier to convey than timetables of the Pokémon anime. Proving someone is likely only gets you a passing glance like "Oh, okay. I *guess*" and without a leak its impossible for one character to really rise above the possible choices. Showing why someone would be fun, either by showing them the character's personality or moveset actually makes them interested.

We did do the whole move set thing recently.

I’m not really sure what else we can do. Most people are burnt out from Smash hype as is. Maybe we can do more sets of art pieces that can showcase different moves? Although we’ll have to check if that’s something Delz or the others would want to do.

Good news is (if you see it that way), we got plenty of time to brainstorm to improve our support base.

 

[Cosmic77]

So something interesting just happened in the anime. Kukui announced that the winner of the league will face him in a exhibition match.

I don't want to spread false hope, but the only two characters competing with any meaningful connection to Kukui are Ash and Guzma/Team Skull.

 

[Garteam]

So something interesting just happened in the anime. Kukui announced that the winner of the league will face him in a exhibition match.

I don't want to spread false hope, but the only two characters competing with any meaningful connection to Kukui are Ash and Guzma/Team Skull.

Inb4 Ash wins the league but doesn't become a champion because Kukui beats him in the exhibition match.

 

[RandomAce]

Kinda expected this seeing how it’s going off of what the games did.

Would lead to some interesting matches and dynamics going forward. I would actually find it really interesting if Guzma decided to enter the league and even face of Kukui in the end.

Whatever happens, pretty sure Lycanroc would still play a pretty big role in this league.

 

[Garteam]

Kinda expected this seeing how it’s going off of what the games did.

Would lead to some interesting matches and dynamics going forward. I would actually find it really interesting if Guzma decided to enter the league and even face of Kukui in the end.

Whatever happens, pretty sure Lycanroc would still play a pretty big role in this league.

Having Guzma become the champion would be pretty awesome. He's such a fun character and having him win the league would make up for him not appearing for 85% of the series.

Shower thought, if there was a Pokken 2, who would y'all like to see as a playable character? Aside from the obvious Lycanroc, I would be pretty ecstatic to see either Heracross or Bulbasaur become playable.

 

[Cosmic77]

Inb4 Ash wins the league but doesn't become a champion because Kukui beats him in the exhibition match.

That's the most likely scenario.

But hey! This would mean Ash technically won a league. A win is a win.

 

[Super10ZX]

I’m gonna keep my hopes down and say Ash will probably lose to either Hau or Guzma. But, if he wins the League, even if he loses to Kukui at the end, it will be one of the greatest moments in the Pokémon anime for me. Finally, after over 1000 episodes, Ash accomplishes one of his major goals. It would definitely make more people look at the Sun & Moon anime, that’s for sure. Even if Ash becomes the Champion, we all know he’s gonna give up his title to someone else.

 

[Adelto]

I would love midnight lycanroc to be a thing but aren't we already a 7th gen rep ? I still hope for him tho