I've seen others suspect it's the 16th as well for that exact reason, but I don't really think Nintendo cares enough about lining things up with a series' anniversaries and their smash presentations in general. We'll see, though.
Anyway, more on topic. I've been thinking a lot about the potential changes we could see in this next patch since we're now in June and the reveal and drop of the ARMS character will be soon regardless, and I'll mention a few of the ones I'd like to see:
1)
waft nerfed a bit. Not to the point where it's useless, of course, but we already had the discussion about this move just a few weeks ago and even a number of times before that, so I don't think I need to go in depth on this one.
2)
nikita being toned down a bit. Maybe this is a little more controversial, although I do think this move alone straight up invalidates certain characters because of their lackluster recoveries and Snake already has plenty of strong tools to make him difficult to deal with for most of the cast.
The other two characters I'd like to see changed (buffed in this case, more specifically) might seem a bit biased because they're my two most played characters, but it is still based on genuine knowledge of them since I play Luc and Banjo so much.
:
- reduce start up on ftilt and dtilt (ftilt: f12->f7, dtilt: f9 to f6 and reduce its total frames from 22 to say, 19 to keep it relatively safe for spacing while being faster as a get off me option)
- reduce start up on Nair (f10->f7/f8). It's such a core piece of his neutral that this move should be faster than it is
-reduce start up
and end lag of aura sphere, and ideally, increase its priority so it doesn't clank with so much and increase the hitstun of ASC hitbox to help make those confirms more consistent. I also mentioned some time ago how frustrating it is getting punished for using AS in neutral just because it's rather high commitment with it's slow start up and end lag and this move is far and away what makes Lucario a character at all, so this is probably the best change he can get.
-increase range of force palm grab to minimize jank between the command grab and hurtbox shifts while the opponent is in shield, which allows for far too many unnecessary whiffs.
:
-increased grab range (seriously, it's pathetic as it is right now and it's a shame since he does get good reward off of throws).
- start up reduction on fair: f15->f11/12. This is one of banjo's best moves to space opponents out in neutral, but it's just a bit too slow as it is right now to really get that job done. Shaving off a few of its start up frames would make a big difference in terms of his keep away game with his aerials against rushdown characters particularly.
Nair: start up frame reduction and landing lag reduction. Currently, it's frame 10, which again is just a little too slow. It is quite disjointed and active for a long time, so making it f8 seems reasonable to me. It does have 16f landing lag though, and I really think that should be halved.
-reduce start up and end lags of both rear eggs and egg shots. Doing this would be huge, as he wouldn't be as prone to rushdown since it's now lower commitment, and this also allows Banjo to play more aggressively now that he's not stuck in so much lag from using his projectiles to keep opponents out.
-reduce start up frames on dtilt (f12->f9). Again, a very good disjoint and grounded spacing tool, but slower than it should be.
-increased base KB and shield damage on up smash: it's Banjo's only legitimate OOS option, so make it kill earlier without rage and make it better for shield pressure while being less unsafe on shield.
-increased bury time on dthrow: if this were made better so there could be legitimate percents where dthrow->utilt/usmash actually confirmed much like snake's dthrow->utilt at 160%, this alone would make his ability to kill much more consistent.
I think these changes are reasonable and fair to build the characters I mentioned up to become better characters without being broken or toned down while still being very good. Curious to see what others' thoughts are on overall changes, though.