hey guys. i'm new to the falcon boards. i'm usually not very active on forums but i want to get to know my fellow falcon mains! also, this is a perfect time to chime in. i live in socal and play with larrylurr (arguably the best fox) at least twice a week, and we literally run this matchup for hours. i don't quite have time to go into massive detail at the moment, BUT i do want to throw some input in on edge guarding fox, because there are a couple things you can do that i really don't see that often!
we'll start with the obvious ones. down tilt and up tilt can stuff out fox's illusion and completely destroy his happiness. you can also grab ledge and back air his side-b on reaction. also if you can predict when they'll side-b, you can run off knee RIGHT before they illusion and the sweet spot will connect.
the thing i DON'T see enough at all, is that when fox is on the ledge, if he gets up with ANYTHING other than a roll, your jab will beat it out. you have two options once your jab connects. obviously you can finish it with the gentleman or rapid jabs to create another edge guard situation, BUT you can also just use the first two hits of jab, then let them fall. if they attempted to recover with an arial, they have no jump at this point, and due to the fact that you can't grab the ledge for 60 frames after you've been hit, the second jab will force them under the ledge, and if you jump RIGHT after you double jab, all you have to do is drift down with them and wait for the up-b which eventually HAS to come out. if they panic and do it right away, it's an incredibly easy dair to connect and the stock is yours. even if they go low, you can react and kill them, and still make it back because you'll still have your double jump. a great thing to do when they are recovering is to use a down-tilt early on purpose. when they snap to the ledge, they are under the impression that they have time to drop down, jump, and throw a dair or fair to recover, but your jab comes out so fast that they'll realize far too late they've been baited and they're doomed. their ONLY option when you are using this jab technique is to either roll up, which you can react to with a dash grab or forward smash once you see it coming and have conditioned them to be scared, or they can drop down, drift back and jump, and try to forward-b through you. this is a 50/50, because either they'll illusion through you and make center stage, or be hit and face the doom of the double jab down air. BUT you can easily see this coming and just f-smash them which they drift back.
tl:dr fox should literally never make it back to the stage vs falcon.
BUT on the flipside, neither should falcon vs. fox. fox's downsmash clips falcon under the ledge and is VERY easy to time and react to, and if you aren't confident with the downsmash, you can simply uptilt falcon and then proceed with more uptilts or a back air depending on percents. so both characters are just 100% ****ed off stage no matter what. and that's all the time i have today! i'll post more thoughts when i am home and have time. this is my favorite matchup in the entire game and playing it with larry each week is an absolute delight.
P.S if you want to be the cool guy at the tournament against a fox, and if he's recovering low, fast-fall sour spot of knee will true combo into a sweet spot knee if you jump right after the sour one connects. this works on most fast fallers, but you aren't making it back to the stage, so make sure you have a stock lead or just make sure you don't care about possibly throwing the whole game. have fun <3