Character Ranking List - Project M - updated 4/4

[Overswarm]

That depends, did he get top 8 in a valid tournament?

 

[metroid1117]

Oh man, this is amazing, Overswarm! I really like how you analyze the data in addition to putting it up. Thank you for doing this, I'm glad that all of those results are being put to good use .

By the way, just wondering - since the PM tournament at APEX was free entry, does that mean you won't include it in your analysis since any points from the tournament would be equal to zero?

 

[Overswarm]

Correct. Not only did Apex not have an entry fee, it was an "invite only" tournament. This makes it invalid. If it was valid, Bowser would have 9,000000 points from the hundreds of free tournaments I'd have every day in my household. While I'm sure the entrants worked hard to get their placings at the tournament they also were guaranteed that no one except that small group could eliminate them.

The $5 cutoff and 10 entrants are both semi-arbitrary. I chose "10" because the most payouts generally occur to top 5 (meaning it is unlikely someone will get money and not points given my top 8 system). Doubling that gives me 10, which also means that at least 2 people can be eliminated and helps to alleviate any sort of inflation from consistent local events.

The $5 came from things like "free tournaments" and chintsy side tournaments that only cost $1 or $3 that everyone and their mother joins just for the hell of it. Potential inflation in the early stages can occur from this; if there's a 100 man Brawl or Melee tournament and they do a side tournament for Project M halfway through, 60 or so Brawl players might join in for $1.

Using the formula...

(10 or 7 or 4 or 1) *60*1/160

60 entrants/$1
1st 3.75

60 entrants/$3
1st 11.25

10 entrants/$5
1st 3.125

From that you can kinda get an idea of how you could inadvertantly rig the system by raising the amount of people as high as possible while keeping a low entry fee. Typically people will only join these tournaments if they are cheap or if they are stuck there, and if 60 people are just stuck there and there's really only 8 P:M players they would get a large boost by beating people that don't know what they're doing. Like a convention tournament or something of the sort.

Ultimately I kept the cutoff fairly low because I wanted to allow for P:M's small community to still "count" while in the "side $5 tournament" stage.

 

[-Ran]

Klink, this isn't a tier list; it's a snap shot of the competitive metagame. Currently, having counters to Bowser, Fox, and so forth would be prudent for a player entering into a tournament. Once those counters [if they exist, be it a stage or a character] appear, then they will be shown on this list. Some characters are slow starters, and need time to develop before they get any notable representation. Other characters exist with simple play styles, or are known quantities, which will draw initial tournament selection.

If you want other characters to be a threat, develop their metagame. I personally feel that ZSS is underrated currently, but I'm actually examining her under a fine lens to determine if this is true or not. I'm not wasting time on a forum complaining about emotionless numbers.

 

[Gimpyfish62]

I gotta say I approve of the number of times the word "Bowser" has been said in this thread already. Keep it up, OS.

 

[Zankoku]

Green means the character is Luigi

YES.

Forever green.

 

[Overswarm]

I gotta say I approve of the number of times the word "Bowser" has been said in this thread already. Keep it up, OS.

When you namesearch, do you just type in "bowser"?

Keep up being the most winningiest player of significant tournaments, because having me, you, and Kirk (who needs to win a recent one still) winning with Bowser in different regions would be awesome.

YES.

Forever green.

The Man in Green Stays in Green.

 

[Oracle]

I think kirk getting third at the biggest 2.5 tournament yet is pretty good lol. Good stuff OS. You might want to include the number of different players who used the characters in your chart, to make sure that its not just one really good player offsetting the results.

 

[Overswarm]

I think kirk getting third at the biggest 2.5 tournament yet is pretty good lol. Good stuff OS. You might want to include the number of different players who used the characters in your chart, to make sure that its not just one really good player offsetting the results.

I plan to have some additional data later once I can figure out how to do it non-manually. I'd like to add in number of times for top 8/top 4/top 2/top 1 per character and would really like it if I could somehow pull from the list and see how many points each PLAYER has received... but I do not have the excel spreadsheet set up for players and am not entirely sure how to do it without making a million unique formulas.

I plan on doing it semi-manually for top characters though. At this stage it's going to be just a small handful of people anyway due to the low number of tournaments, but that will change.

I'm good at figuring stuff out in Excel but don't have any formal training in the higher level functions and I am not a programmer, so some of the stuff eludes me at the moment.


What tournament did Kirk win? If it wasn't 2.5 or wasn't in Metroid's list it wouldn't have been added. I'm not actively seeking out tournaments but more just seeing what is in Metroid's list.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

he was referring to Kirk getting 3rd at SCSYN5

 

[Kink-Link5]

So I think everyone should just play Bowser. He seems to have an even matchup with Bowser, who is the biggest threat in tournaments, so that's all the more reason to use him.

 

[Oro?!]

No Bunni, Charizard is better in every way and Dragons are cooler than turtle dog things.

 

[Kink-Link5]

Naw Charizard is only a B class character not really worth the time. Bowser gets that money only character worth mentioning. All the other characters might as well not exist.

 

[Zankoku]

I know you're being facetious, but that really only applies if the measurement of what's past is what solely dictates the future... which if that were the case, Diddy Kong would never have left C or D rank in my old Brawl list back in 2008.

 

[Kink-Link5]

According to Overswarm it does predict the future and has been better at predicting trends than Melee's tier list has been at reflecting the viability of characters for years. I'm just saying we could cut out the middleman and have everyone run Bowser in tournament already. It isn't like there's ever been a character that does well at the early metagame before tapering off later. :wesker:

Glad you caught the jesting though. It tends to fly over most people's heads.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

kink, you're being SO DUMB.

You are literally ******** about how much you disagree with something that's not finished yet. This needs TIME to show trends. A month's worth of tournaments (a lot of which aren't even added to the data yet) can't show who the best characters are. Nobody ever claimed that it would. You're being a moron.

 

[Kink-Link5]

I'm just restating the points made by Overswarm: We can conclude and predict from the results shown that Squirtle, Snake, and Pikachu are not a threat in a REAL LIFE TOURNAMENT, and that Bowser is the go to character for this game.

 

[Proteus]

Except that there's nothing to predict. This is showing what IS happening, not what's going to happen in the future.

Edit: Realized I'm just saying what others have already said, lol. This isn't a large enough sample size to mean anything yet, but it's nice see everything laid out so pretty.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

I'm just restating the points made by Overswarm: We can conclude and predict from the results shown that Squirtle, Snake, and Pikachu are not a threat in a REAL LIFE TOURNAMENT, and that Bowser is the go to character for this game.

No, you're not. You're restating a strawman version of what OS said, and you're making it inaccurate on purpose. You can't make predictions based on this yet, there needs to be more data. A trend cannot exist if there's not more updates over time. All you can gather from the current data is that Squirtle, Snake and Pikachu are not successful in tournament RIGHT NOW. Because it's true. They aren't.

 

[Kink-Link5]

To bad, our results based tier list clearly shows Squirtle is and always will do more poorly than most characters in the game.

Peach is the best character in Melee because results. You're delusional to think that Fox or heaven forbid Falco are better than her.

If Peach is consistently winning at such a level that the character would get more points than Fox or Falco, then yes. This would be the case. Personal feeling is irrelevant to success. It would have to be weighted properly and observed over a period of time, but it is entirely possible.

That's the cool thing about recording data. It doesn't care what you think, it's just right.

I was able to predict the rise and fall of characters with alarming accuracy using that list during the Brawl era without having more than top 8, so having those entrants does literally nothing except satisfy your curiosity. Worse still, it might actually ruin a successful model having extraneous data involved.

Top 8, however, represents actual tournament threats to real tournament players. Top 8 isn't hard to get into and has proven itself to be a reliable source of information when weighted properly. It's also an appropriate range given that top 4 is a common payout scheme, and this gives us exactly 4 more players to bring us to a total of 8.

It's been used for like 4 years and has been more accurate than the Melee tier lists for their entire existence, so... eh.

Sounds a lot to me like trends from the past are being used to predict the outcome of the future metagame.

It's fine to say that this is just a collection of data showing the past results of tournaments, but to say this sort of thing is an indicator of what characters WILL do well is where I have a bone. It's like the last Melee tier list retroactively observing Hungrybox's bair getting him through tournaments in 2010 and suddenly Jigglypuff jumps to number 3 before immediately being seen in a more similar light to what she was before the jump.

 

[Overswarm]

Kink, if you still don't understand there isn't much I can do to help you. I'm sorry you have so much trouble understanding this, but maybe someone else will be able to help you with it some other time. Good luck.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

yes kink. TRENDS.

There are no trends yet. This thing has never changed. Characters aren't moving yet. It's too early to say who the most successful characters will be.

You are literally the only person who thinks this project won't work. Probably because you flat out don't seem to understand it. You think less than a month's worth of data establishes a trend.

 

[Zankoku]

OS, if you want complex silliness performed that you can't wrap your head around for Excel, I can write a program for you to enter and track stats in, and maybe generate CSVs for use in Excel. If you're interested just PM me with details on what you'd want in it.

 

[Kink-Link5]

I think less than a month of data establishes absolutely no trend, which is the problem I have with this in the first place.

Saying Bowser is "Ranked" number 1 in a metagame that barely exists has some serious implications.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

But you think this project is over, when it's not. That's the problem. The current data in the OP is not the be all end all of existence. It's not finished.

 

[Zankoku]

No, the project is clearly over. It's impossible to edit posts, images, or Excel spreadsheets.

 

[traffic.]

Guys. You're arguing with Kink Link. Stahp. Go punch a wall until it says ow.

 

[-Ran]

No, the project is clearly over. It's impossible to edit posts, images, or Excel spreadsheets.

I must have.... super powers?!

 

[Kink-Link5]

So question, is there going to be some sort of character progress over time chart to go along with this? Like a line graph showing how characters are doing from month to month, or even one just showing how many tournaments total won over time with week- or bi-week-long intervals. Both would be pretty damn important if you ask me but I"m just wrong and no one cares about seeing how a character does in the early game compared to the later game.

 

[Shadic]

Please stop the idiotic debate and the one-person pity party.

This was a pretty interesting thread. Let's keep it that way.

 

[Scythe]

this thread convinced me to ignore this kink guy lol. anyways OS keep up the good work and bring your pm scene to chicago!
btw if you ever host a big PM tourney over there i'm sure we can bring a car ourselves.

 

[Mithost]

Glad to see Bowser doing well! It's interesting to have a heavy weight on the top (even if it's not a tier list). Lets see how the next few months will play out, now that people know that Bowser is a legit threat.

 

[PMS | LEVEL 100 MAGIKARP]

Glad to see Bowser doing well! It's interesting to have a heavy weight on the top (even if it's not a tier list). Lets see how the next few months will play out, now that people know that Bowser is a legit threat.

I'm really hoping Bowser doesn't turn into another DDD.

 

[JOE!]

I'm really hoping Bowser turns into another snake

 

[Aenglaan]

I can't say I'm surprised by the characters that have won the most tournaments, although Charzard's placement is a bit strange.

I am surprised that not a single Mario or Lucario has won a tournament, though. Both characters have tons of potential.

 

[Gimpyfish62]

i'm really hoping that bowser doesn't turn into a different character and is just bowser

because i like bowser more than the other characters.

 

[Overswarm]

this thread convinced me to ignore this kink guy lol. anyways OS keep up the good work and bring your pm scene to chicago!
btw if you ever host a big PM tourney over there i'm sure we can bring a car ourselves.

There isn't much of a PM scene Cincinnati; there's like me, Dr.X, my little brother, Tako, and Lumi. I wish it didn't sound conceited to say I was the best here, but I'm the best here and it's because no one else really plays all that much. Columbus has a much healthier scence with some really good players; you should look into the Rain events or Juu's upcoming Project M only event.

I have house tournaments from time to time that are kind of low key, I'd be fine having a car come down here for those. I might go to Chicago sometime, I just need to get a group together here and hopefully find someone else to drive me! :D

i'm really hoping that bowser doesn't turn into a different character and is just bowser

because i like bowser more than the other characters.

 

[metroid1117]

Overswarm, you should go to SMYM next month .

Also, after updating the results thread with 7 more tournaments, I'm shocked to see that no one has been repping Pikachu. I recall Axe using him in Demo 2.1 tournaments, but I don't think anyone else really took a liking to him... Pikachu mains, where are you guys? >.>

 

[Kink-Link5]

So is there going to be a line graph showing a characters' winning trends over time or is that one of those things no one cares about overswarm?

 

[Oro?!]

It's probably really easy to have a chart for every update which would indicate a trend... don't know why you are acting like this lol.