Since this is not a wishlist roster, but rather a prediction, I can't do that.
Snake's chances are lower than ever with Kojima's comment, E3 passing by without word of his fate, and Sakurai's using the "Mario, Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man" thing as a selling point; making it seem like those three are the only third parties.
On the other hand, we have Takamaru, who has plenty of evidence in his favor with more cameos than any other potential retro recently (Pikmin 2, Captain Rainbow, a song and a sticker in Brawl, Warioware DIY, Samurai Warriors 3, and Nintendoland); a very recent overseas release (for the first time) in Europe (but suspiciously not North America); Sakurai's somewhat out-of-place 1983 comment; and Sakurai's blessing for Retros:
Adam Riley: You have mentioned how you like to breathe new life into forgotten franchises. Now that Kid Icarus has been completed, what other old classic would you like to look at? Ice Climbers, Star Tropics,MoleMania…or something non-Nintendo?
Sakurai-san: I am planning on doing my best to bring old characters back in Smash Bros. From that perspective, I am probably in the most fortunate position in the world.
I'm sorry, but I think it's clear which one of these characters has more of a chance of getting into the game at this point.