Yeah, I would agree.
Roy could be added if Sakurai was running low on newcomer choices but only as a low priority clone.
Bowser Jr. I see has a pretty decent chance. I mean, if it was under semi-clone circumstances, he has a good chance. And if people are advocating for 6 Pokemons, I think it is fair to say that Bowser Jr. still has a chance.
Dixie Kong still has a chance, a high one I might add. It is either K. Rool or Dixie and both of them have chances in being added. I think the reason why people are jumping off the boat with her is because TF's release would have had been the perfect release for her, unless there is a ton TF content.
LOL, it seems that your comment has been cut off.
I think Roy is more likely to return than most people think. Before E3 2013, he was the fifth most wanted character in the West and one of two of the most wanted character in Japan (him and Mewtwo far surpassed any newcomer suggestion, even Mega Man). Also, Roy was planned to be in Brawl and would have made it if it weren't for time constraints. I'm almost confident Roy will be planned and while I don't expect him to be in the final roster, if there's going to be a fourth Fire Emblem character (which I would argue is more likely than just Marth & Chrom), it's going to be Roy.
Pokémon getting six characters this game is irrelevant to a chance of a Mario getting a second new rep; not only because Sakurai doesn't add characters for the sake of fair representation based on sales, but also because Pokémon already had six in Brawl; Pikachu, Jigglypuff, Lucario, Charizard, Squirtle, and Ivysaur. If Pokémon gets six, it'll be the same as in Brawl.
To be fair, Dixie Kong not appearing in Tropical Freeze doesn't necessarily rule her out. Many people expected a Pokémon to get announced around X & Y release and it didn't happen. Six months later, Greninja got revealed as a playable character. The point is, despite what may seem as a "perfect announcement time" (which let's be honest here, we should not have expected Dixie Kong before Diddy), not being announced around Tropical Freeze's released doesn't reduce her chance. I'd be more worried about whenever or not Sakurai sees Dixie as a playable material on her own.