Starcutter
Resident Beedrill
Ike:Lucas doesn't have a threat of a replacement looming in terms of there being a new poster-boy. We can't say the same for Ike.
I don't think Ike is going to be cut, but in a flavor of the month series like Fire Emblem, I'd assume he'd be on the chopping block before Lucas ever is.
+very popular in smash AND fire emblem
+unique moveset
+Importance in FE still significant, being one off the only FE characters to have descendants in awakening
+Roster size should allow 3 fire emblem reps
+2 games
-Fire emblem awakening character imminent.
Lucas
+star of only handheld mother game
+nobody could replace him from his own series
-Semi-clone
-Mother 3 isn't well liked in Japan, when only having Japanese release.
-franchise is pretty dead.
-1 game
For comparison let's check Roy and see why he might have been out prioritized to the point of being cut.
+ fire
-marth clone
-wasn't distinct at all but still managed to be worse than the source
-one game that was only released in Japan.
I think Lucas would be cut before Ike, but that's just me. I don't expect any cuts outside MAYBE snake, but Lucas would be out prioritized by Ike.