Right, I find it's best to get opinions and whatnot from different people as much as possible with questions like these. So here's what I have to say on the matter...
Roy's popularity is sure something in Japan -- it's crazy for a character like Roy when you think about it (now
why he become highly requested, well, that's another complicated story which we still haven't found a direct answer to. We can only speculate, but that's for another time haha). His popularity is pretty good in the West also, so it's not like his inclusion will only cater to Japan. However, Japan did get FE6 (big game, could be considered a revival to the series, at least from Japan's perspective), so they kinda have that advantage if they like Roy via FE6, though liking Roy just because of Melee is legitimate as well.
I'll be quite honest with you, a character who was once planned for Brawl, highly requested in both Japan and in the West, and even positively commented on by the creator (what did Sakurai say? Something like "you may like this character's playstyle and will fall in love with his charm" <-- something along those lines -- it's on his Melee dojo page anyway. It's also been speculated that Sakurai may have added in Roy as more of a personal choice, along with is fire aesthetics) seems like a very likely choice. But Roy does have competition (I'm sure you know who, Ike included) and many people cringe at his clone status.
Roy does have his merits though, as with characters like Chom, Robin, and other newcomers.
See, IS can suggest things (i.e. Sakurai doesn't know which FE newcomer to add and asks them like what happened pre-Brawl), however, I don't think IS is that controlling (like they'll refuse to let Sakurai add Roy), at least not as much as the Pokemon Company (y u so picky, PC?). I don't think Sakurai has to oblige to a suggestion. In this case,
if Sakurai wants to add Chrom, I think that one of the major reasons may be that he sees something more in Chrom -- something that will make him a worthwhile addition -- rather than just adding him because he's the most recent and successful Lord... at least I hope so. I mean, who knows for sure...
Anyway, 4 FE characters may be pushing it for some, but it's not impossible. FE is a long running Strategy RPG series (and niche one at that) that miraculously still manages to pump out games regularly. We don't really know how Sakurai views these things, or if 4 FE characters might be pushing it for him. Although I must note that he is a fan of the series, so in the end I doubt we'll be lacking in FE content, however, I will be disappointed if we don't get at least 3 FE characters. I'm personally fine with four, but maybe it's because I'm slightly bias in this sense. Better to get different opinions in this.
With the upcoming SMT x FE game, I'm really hoping will see a full FE on Wii U. I'm glad the series is getting a spin-off game, and perhaps the game is to test the FE series on the console... SO FE WII U GO GO GO!!
So, does Roy have a chance at returning, along with an Awakening newcomer? I think so, though I'm not sure how likely; I think it depends on what path Sakurai wants to take in the end. I'm assuming you're including Ike as well, so, for example, let's say the FE roster is: Marth, Ike, Roy, Chrom.
If Chrom's going to share some similarities to Marth or Ike, I think it would be best if Roy's de-cloned (very easy thing to do giving what he can offer. Feel free to ask if you'd like me to further explain). The thing is, I do have trouble seeing Roy being 100% unique, maybe as a Lucas/Wolf at best (if Roy shares some moves it might be easier to implant anyway). I will make my judgment if we do see characters like Falco and Ganon. If they've been decloned or at least more unique, then I'll probably have more hope in Roy becoming the same.
My problem is this: what if Sakurai goes to IS hoping for a FE newcomer suggestion and the company suggests Chrom (for obvious reasons). Now, like I've said before, I don't think IS is that controlling that they HAVE to have Chrom playable (Awakening content could always be represented with things other than characters), but I just can't see them recommending anyone else other than Chrom. Maybe if we get a similar situation with Roy, or maybe if IS suggests some other FE character for god-knows-what, I'm not sure. The only other reason is if a FE6 remake is in the works, which we don't know and I doubt. Like I'm having a hard time seeing anyone else, but if someone can prove me wrong, then by all means DO IT!
I hope Roy's popularity isn't ignored. Sometime Sakurai does try to get popular requests in as best as he can -- Saki being an AT is an example (read Saki's dojo page for more info). We'll see how the FE franchise is handled; it's actually a series that I'm really anxious on.
I'm so sorry, this is what happens when I write something when I'm overly tired.
In short, I do believe Roy is in a good position of returning, but he does have competition, notably Ike (returning vet), Chrom, or a surprising choice like Robin (though I personally think it'll be Roy vs Chrom). Also depends what path Sakurai wants to take -- getting 4 FE characters isn't impossible, but different people will have different opinions whether they're okay with this many characters. If characters like Falco/Ganon become decloned I will have more faith in Roy becoming the same.
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