So, here's a question I've been wondering about lately...
How do we determine how likely a character is, exactly? There seems to be some sort of general consensus on the matter, and yet, if all these various prediction tiers are anything to go by, we all have some very different ideas on how likely certain characters are. I feel like delving into this topic could provide some rather interesting information. So, how do you personally determine how likely a character is?
Popularity, potential to be unique, and recent pushes in advertisement, and recent appearances.
I personally don't include series importance like many do because, the way I see it, importance feeds popularity.
To put it more concisely, let's look at Ridley versus Rundas.
Ridley is much more important to the Metroid franchise than Rundas is. But, with the way I look at it, that directly doesn't make Ridley more likely. All importance does is make more people
want Ridley (IE Make him more popular.) Ask many Ridley supporters why they support Ridley, and one of, if not their first answer will be something that ultimately translates to "He's very important to the Metroid franchise."
Rundas, on the other hand, isn't as important, and less people want him.
In both cases,
importance correlates with
popularity. And
popularity correlates with
likeliness. But the direct correlation between
importance and
likeliness is more faded since importance is just one factor of many that feeds popularity...If any of that makes any sense...