There you go again, a large chunk of your argument is based on your own assumptions on what Sakurai may or may not do. We have actual evidence of what to expect of a third party, and absolutely no evidence suggesting to the contrary.
I certainly think the ballot is something suggests he may be open to more choices. It's not wrong to assume really, there wasn't any evidence that two Mario newcomers would be added, but some people assumed that Rosalina and her critically acclaimed successful Galaxy games would have Sakurai add her and look at it right now; and a few assumed Bowser Jr. would be added due to NSMB and his recurring appearances in the games and look at the situation right now.
Sakurai isn't going to flat-out say
exactly which type of character he's going to add other-wise he'd be giving away the surprise value. Though he does give some hints, though they are
sometimes very vague to the point it's hard to guess which one of that type of character he will add.
For example check the article about Sakurai's change of direction with adding characters:
http://nintendoeverything.com/sakurai-change-of-direction-may-be-needed-for-next-smash-bros/
“It isn’t a matter of ‘if the next game has 50 characters, that’ll be enough.’ There is a certain charm to games that have huge casts of playable characters, but they tend to have issues with game balance and it becomes very difficult to fine-tune each character and have them all feel distinctive…. In terms of quantity, we’ve probably already reached the limit of what’s feasible. I think a change of direction may be what’s needed.”
Very vague, but it does suggest that the way Sakurai adds newcomers in Smash 4 will change drastically, and the characters like Villager and Wii Fit Trainer show this. And I think the ballot's rule of allowing to vote any video game character shows that Sakurai is able to add a character who is less iconic than what have in the Smash 4 roster already, even though it is very vague and doesn't directly confirm anyone specific. It is a plausible possibility.
Can't compare to retros? That's ironic. You've been comparing her to regular Nintendo characters this whole time.
I mean I don't think he will apply retro logic to third-parties. They really don't correlate with each other. This is another whole argument though, and you don't think retro criteria exists anyway, so I don't want to continue this.
I feel bad for you there, just because the developer teases a sequel doesn't mean it's happening. I know that pain all too well.
Platinum Games isn't owned by Microsoft right now, they pretty much can make games for Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo anytime they want.
Good reviews =/=
iconic.
Elvis Presley is iconic, his music lives on long after his death and people around the world know him regardless of if they listen to his music or not. Mario, Pac-Man, etc are comparable to this, even someone with vague knowledge of games knows them and two of them are still living on legacy alone. You have some weird assumption that because Bayonetta has fans, she's somehow iconic. Every character has fans, how does someone using a Bayonetta avatar mean anything? I'm using a Lip avatar, is she suddenly iconic?
Maybe I've been using the wrong word here, but still I do see her pretty often in websites and from many gamers here the six years I've been on the internet. Using your sales logic, the franchise having sold 2 million in total, she is more-so than most games being posted on the app store and many minor indie games on the Wii U that's not garnering much attention right now. Though I'm not just using fans alone, I'm using franchise popularity in account too, and her franchise is pretty popular, though not as uber popular as Mario, Sonic, and Pac-Man. It's enough for me to think she's a qualifiable candidate for Smash DLC.
She caused a minor amount of notice when her second game was Wii U exclusive.
That is false though. It caused a large noticeable amount of controversy with it being a Wii U exclusive within Xbox and Playstation fans alike.
She has to be compared to them because they are the bar she has to meet yet is nowhere near, third party characters are a special case, for far more than one reason. Until Sakurai says "I don't care who it is, if they've been in a game then it's possible" then the iconic status holds true.
She has to? Unless he flat-out states that they have to be very iconic characters, then I don't think the iconic status holds true yet and has to be treated as gospel like Gematsu. Listen, I understand the notion iconic characters here, but both possibilities have to be considered even if the chances are low.