Theory crafting time people! Feel free to shoot me down!
Let’s start with a few interesting bits.
- Portion of Gematsu leak before E3 2014 got Mii Fighter types correct, listed Lucas as DLC and that, “some on the team didn’t agree with it”
- If Roy/Ryu is true, all Melee vets save for Pichu return to the game
- Roy/Ryu proves 3rd Party DLC can happen (could also be dependent on a deal between companies)
Ok, so the data files are real. Roy and Ryu have data in Smash 3DS. This now means that, should Roy come back, all vets of Melee are in the game except for Pichu. Dr. Mario, Mewtwo, Roy and Toon Link are all in the game.
It’s possible that Roy and Mewtwo were once again planned to be in the game, but somewhere down the line, DLC was planned. This alleviated the struggle of time constraints because these characters (Mewtwo and Roy) could be added later.
So if we have the Melee cuts essentially fixed, then it’s assumed the Brawl veteran cuts will be fixed as well. There’s no point to not bringing Wolf back at this point, so he’s a pretty safe bet. The only other Brawl vets are Ice Climbers, Squirtle, Ivysaur…and Snake.
If we refer back to Sakurai’s character criteria, he mentions roster balance by series. In other words, one series will not overwhelm the roster with their total. As it stands, Mario has 7 characters (six if we ignore Doc because he’s a clone), and Pokemon now has 6. Roster balance considered, I cannot see any of the Pokemon vets returning. If one of Squirtle or Ivysaur is added, the other will follow suit. If Ice Climbers were going to come back at all, I believe Sakurai and the team would have put in the work to make them work in Smash 3DS. I wouldn’t expect them.
So what I’m getting at, is that the only other vets that we’ll see come back are Wolf and Snake. We’ve now seen with Ryu that 3rd party characters can get in as DLC if the deal is right (and if the character is iconic enough). Snake has already proven his worth by being a Smash veteran (if he was a nobody, Sakurai wouldn’t have added him in the first place). So essentially, if Snake comes back with Wolf, the veteran characters will be complete.
Now here’s where the ballot comes in. If Wolf and Snake come back, we’ll have 6 DLC characters. Based on the discovery of the Ryu/Roy data, I’d argue that the first four characters could eventually be packaged as DLC in a Season Pass. Next, Wolf and Snake would start off the second pack. They would be the beginning of a 2nd pack of four, with the final two getting in based on the Smash Ballot.
If my theory is right, the Smash Bros DLC would look like this:
Pack 1: Mewtwo, Lucas, Roy, Ryu
Pack 2: Wolf, Snake, Ballot Choices #1, Ballot Choice #2
The Ballot choices would still be under scrutiny of the standards Sakurai has, so it doesn’t necessarily mean that “X” character gets in because they were #1 on the poll. It goes back to things we’ve previously talked about: Popularity, potential, roster balance, etc…
But here’s the next kicker…remember that Job Posting at Namco for Smash Bros.? That plays a part here too. Obviously, the next Smash won’t come out for a while, as is the case with Smash Bros. as a series. Therefore, with the development we’ve already seen, it’s likely that those job postings were for the DLC characters and material. If this is the case, they’ve hired new workers (which could mean less pay) who are working under the same guys in charge while other developers move onto other projects.
If this is true, we’d be seeing Namco/Nintendo paying out less money for essentially the same product. Sakurai would oversee the characters, Namco would still work on balance, and it’d all be done for less money.
What could eventually come of this, is a re-released version of Smash with all the DLC included. This could be ported to the NX, or arguably as the new Smash Bros. game. It would only need balance patches, as the art style appears to work very well. No characters would be cut, and the team would only need to add some on. See where I’m going with this?
Call me crazy, but I think there’s some merit to this idea. I may look biased because of my Snake support, but Ryu getting in only strengthens the idea that the character has to be Iconic to gaming and arguably elsewhere to get into Smash (not to mention deals need to be made) when considering 3rd party characters. Add in the fact that Snake is a vet, and he’s got a good case to return.
Roy getting in makes it apparent that veterans have the advantage because of established Smash fanbases and their move sets are already done.
Should Ryu and Roy be legitimate (which at this point I feel there is little doubt) I believe they’d be revealed at some point over the summer (possibly E3). They’d be released sometime in summer or Early Fall, which is close to when the Smash Ballot closes. Once the Smash Ballot is closed, they will have their selections in front of them, and they can begin working on their choices. Wolf and Snake can headline this pack of four and the rest is up for debate.
This is something that I’ve deeply thought about since last night, so feel free to share your thoughts. This gets me hyped!